Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

Q: ...what are "diamond hands"?

I see it as a counterpoint to a gambling term “weak hand” where the gamer may ”fold” or quit the present game due to a weak or poor hand. Quitters are disparaged or looked down upon culturally.

“Diamond hands“ is a meme-ish term reflecting never quitting or an investor intending to hold shares through thick or thin to the very end with a pure and enduring commitment IMO. YMMV

 

[goinfraftw]

I see it as a counterpoint to a gambling term “weak hand” where the gamer may ”fold” or quit the present game due to a weak or poor hand. Quitters are disparaged or looked down upon culturally.

“Diamond hands“ is a meme-ish term reflecting never quitting or an investor intending to hold shares through thick or thin to the very end with a pure and enduring commitment IMO. YMMV

So...value investor?

 

[The Accountant]

Q2 Deliveries are 9% higher than Q1 but GAAP Earnings for Q2 will grow by 72%.
For those interested in what is driving this 72% growth, I have a post here explaining it:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

If there were 3,500 at the end of Q4 2020... Just to be clear, it was 5500 at end of Q4 2020 and 3500 at end of Q1 2021. I assume Tesla loaners are eventually sold as used? But how and when do they get moved to the used inventory? Does that actually count as a 'sale' eventhough it's internal...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

Q: ...what are "diamond hands"?

Wow, and I thought diamond hands where crystal clear. These are needed to catch falling knives you know... here's the setup.

In addition to what was shared, when the stock price is dropping, but we all know it's fake as in shorts manipulating it down, then we tend to buy increasingly on the way down. But then it goes down even more, but because our hands don't ever bleed, we grab even more shares! And for as long as we have dry powder $.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Totally OT

Congrats to ASTRONAUT Sir Richard Branson!

Somewhere, Bezos is fuming. As usual.

Nice picture with Elon though haha

 

[lascavarian]

So...value investor?

I would think it closer to traditional “Growth Investing” but there is also IMO a component that stands in contrast to swing trading. Buy and hold based on expectation of significant long term growth. Buy and buy again and buy more.

 

[lascavarian]

I wonder when a few Beta FSD improvements might trickle down to the software versions us common folks with Autopilot who paid for FSD have so thousands of us can enjoy them every day?

I wish I could say I have not had this thought also.

Up at 5am watching night-time driving on the new beta for hours it seemed.

But all things in good time. I can see that the the FSD team needs to keep pushing for the breakthroughs and breakthroughs don’t map well to incrementalism.

Riding along on YouTube will do for now.

 

[skybluecgreen]

I will take anything Bill tweets with a grain of salt in future. It’s clear he never really thought about what was in that pack, despite it being highly significant regarding the date on which Tesla becomes full master of their own destiny (in a position to accelerate cell production, beyond the rate cell suppliers are comfortable with).

Pretty sure Bill Wright's reply was sarcasm. Someone said Alex didn't believe they were 4680 and this was his response:

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

and now it has swung back to "that's definitely not a 4680 pack". It's kind of interesting that in the last 24 hours the speculation went from "it's a 4680 pack" to "that's not a 4680 pack" to "it's definitely a 4680 pack" to "it's definitely not a 4680 pack". There's probably a lesson in there somewhere.

I think it just swung back again

 

[phantasms]

Bill was the first to say 18650 for Plaid when that went against every fact we thought we knew. This bull is with Bill, and more bullish than ever.

 

[StealthP3D]

It's pretty clear I am trying to say you are a hypocrite when all you do is preach people to diamond hand all day and yet you sold to "rebalance". Yeah, those of us who held all need a little rebalancing but you don't see me doing it because I, unlike you, actually diamond hand this stock.

I mean you preach SO hard for people to diamond hand that you scold people having a bearish position just for selling calls for income. I don't preach such nonsense and I don't expect people to diamond hand. I also don't go out of my way to call anyone a bear for selling/criticizing the company when there's something they don't agree with it.

That's a bunch of BS. I've recommended people don't sell a good stock because they think it might go lower but I've never recommended against selling off a portion when one's position has grown so much it is too large a percentage, depending upon their phase of life and goals, and the value represented by the shares. Never sell a good stock simply because it went up because you don't know how far it might continue to go up.

I've been continually retired for over 20 years and have no other income other than selling shares except for a small amount of dividend bearing stock. I don't sell covered calls for income because I believe that's the best way to miss out on big runs and I prefer to chose the time I sell myself, not leave it to the vagaries of the market. But I HAVE to sell stock occasionally to live, eat and drink, buy properties, pay property taxes, travel, buy cars, etc. I don't sell a little bit every month or even every year because I don't want to be forced into selling at the wrong time. I like to maintain a minimum of 2 years living expenses in cash at all times. Additionally, I've never sold a single share of TSLA without reporting it here within hours of selling. I've never even used the term "diamond hands" as I think it's a silly term.

In other words, I've been practicing exactly what I preach and it has been working exceptionally well. You are way off base here. I couldn't live without occasionally selling stock or going into margin, something I consistently recommend avoiding.

 

[dl003]

I would think it closer to traditional “Growth Investing” but there is also IMO a component that stands in contrast to swing trading. Buy and hold based on expectation of significant long term growth. Buy and buy again and buy more.

IMO, investing is not a black and white thing. Whether you're scalping, day trading, swing trading, position trading, or hodling, technicals and fundamentals all play a role with varying level of significance. The longer your time horizon is, the less important technicals are but even people on this board would prefer to buy at 600 over 900, for example. That's human psychology which is a component of TA.

 

[Singuy]

That's a bunch of BS. I've recommended people don't sell a good stock because they think it might go lower but I've never recommended against selling off a portion when one's position has grown so much it is too large a percentage, depending upon their phase of life and goals, and the value represented by the shares. Never sell a good stock simply because it went up because you don't know how far it might continue to go up.

I've been continually retired for over 20 years and have no other income other than selling shares except for a small amount of dividend bearing stock. I don't sell covered calls for income because I believe that's the best way to miss out on big runs and I prefer to chose the time I sell myself, not leave it to the vagaries of the market. But I HAVE to sell stock occasionally to live, eat and drink, buy properties, pay property taxes, travel, buy cars, etc. I don't sell a little bit every month or even every year because I don't want to be forced into selling at the wrong time. I like to maintain a minimum of 2 years living expenses in cash at all times. Additionally, I've never sold a single share of TSLA without reporting it here within hours of selling. I've never even used the term "diamond hands" as I think it's a silly term.

In other words, I've been practicing exactly what I preach and it has been working exceptionally well. You are way off base here. I couldn't live without occasionally selling stock or going into margin, something I consistently recommend avoiding.

Okay, so I guess I misunderstood what you mean by rebalancing. Usually based on generally accepted definition, rebalancing is a stock by selling means you are overweight compared to your other holdings..which means you are not 100% Tesla so don't even pretend you have to sell Tesla to feed yourself as if it's 100% of your holdings.

 

[The Accountant]

Feel free to respond here to this post if it relates to how this information may impact the selling price or you want to provide some insights but if you want to get into forecasting or technical accounting please reply in the financial thread (I have provided a link below to the more detailed version of this post).

Even My 2021 Bear Case Scenario Beats Wall Street EPS Estimates
I assume:
- nothing from Berlin and Austin and thus no Semi and no Cybertruck
- I assume no Model X in 2021 (Refresh to 2022)
- growth in deliveries of about 25k in Q3 and 25k in Q4 coming from:
-----------Ramp up of Model S in Fremont
-----------Ramp up of Model Y in Shanghai
- Declining Regulatory Credits in Q3 and Q4
- No further Bitcoin impairments
- No Deferred Tax Benefit recognized
- I slightly tweak pricing and margins but nothing that moves the needle much.

Even with this bear case, I have $5.00 in EPS vs Wall Street of $4.48 (a 12% beat).
Wall Street will likely start to move their estimates up as we progress into Q3.

Near-future quarterly financial projections

If there were 3,500 at the end of Q4 2020... Just to be clear, it was 5500 at end of Q4 2020 and 3500 at end of Q1 2021. I assume Tesla loaners are eventually sold as used? But how and when do they get moved to the used inventory? Does that actually count as a 'sale' eventhough it's internal...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Jack6591]

My First Job In Construction

As a first-year electrical apprentice I was sent out to build the new Fred Meyers department store at Bonney Lake, Washington. The job turned out to be one of the few jobs in my career that I was there from start to finish. In retrospect, this job profoundly shaped my view of the construction industry.

At the start of the job, I was unaware that the General Foreman had just completed six identical stores. The organization that was built into the construction scheduling was truly impressive; the equipment came off the delivery trucks in the exact order it was needed. At the seventh iteration, these guys were dialed-in.

Once I had finished this construction job, reality hit me in the face. The overwhelming majority of construction is one-off design. The organization and execution of of the Fred Meyers department store was indeed an anomaly.

Recently, we’ve seen evidence of pre-fabricated Superchargers; leaving me pondering the memories of my first construction experience. Now, Tesla has announced the new housing project in Austin, Texas. It is only their first iteration—the machine that builds the machine. Consider renewable energy, energy storage, HVAC, air-filtration and quality, and energy arbitrage.

Elon is going to disrupt the construction industry; he is always three steps ahead of me—even in my forte.

 

[MXWing]

Feel free to respond here to this post if it relates to how this information may impact the selling price or you want to provide some insights but if you want to get into forecasting or technical accounting please reply in the financial thread (I have provided a link below to the more detailed version of this post).

Even My 2021 Bear Case Scenario Beats Wall Street EPS Estimates
I assume:
- nothing from Berlin and Austin and thus no Semi and no Cybertruck
- I assume no Model X in 2021 (Refresh to 2022)
- growth in deliveries of about 25k in Q3 and 25k in Q4 coming from:
-----------Ramp up of Model S in Fremont
-----------Ramp up of Model Y in Shanghai
- Declining Regulatory Credits in Q3 and Q4
- No further Bitcoin impairments
- No Deferred Tax Benefit recognized
- I slightly tweak pricing and margins but nothing that moves the needle much.

Even with this bear case, I have $5.00 in EPS vs Wall Street of $4.48 (a 12% beat).
Wall Street will likely start to move their estimates up as we progress into Q3.

View attachment 683488

Near-future quarterly financial projections

If there were 3,500 at the end of Q4 2020... Just to be clear, it was 5500 at end of Q4 2020 and 3500 at end of Q1 2021. I assume Tesla loaners are eventually sold as used? But how and when do they get moved to the used inventory? Does that actually count as a 'sale' eventhough it's internal...

teslamotorsclub.com

Gordon Johnson would forecast 6.50 in EPS just so he could say Tesla missed by over 20%.

Does your model's account for resale of used cars? Tesla essentially getting new car prices for used cars it turns around.

 

[capster]

sentiment last night was that v9 beta would be a nothing burger for the stock. everyone still agree with that? (To be clear, not asking if its impressive, asking if some videos from a select group of people on twitter will send the stock up)

Dunno. Shorts often celebrate the 4th of July short week with a bear raid. Could be the beta release feeds into any rebound from last week’s raid adding to…what do they call it again?…momentum.

Of course, the FUD will switch from "it’s late" to "it’s bad."

 

[The Accountant]

Gordon Johnson would forecast 6.50 in EPS just so he could say Tesla missed by over 20%.

Does your model's account for resale of used cars? Tesla essentially getting new car prices for used cars it turns around.

Yes - I believe the resale of used cars go into the Service & Other category and I have a slight improvement in margins in that category for Q3 & Q4.
Margins improving by 1 percentage point each quarter - not aggressive.

 

[2daMoon]

Gordon Johnson would forecast 6.50 in EPS just so he could say Tesla missed by over 20%.

Does your model's account for resale of used cars? Tesla essentially getting new car prices for used cars it turns around.

You do realize how, essentially, getting full price for used is yet another indicator of the ongoing busted growth story.

It is clear this shows how buyers are shunning the new products coming off the line.

Obligatory /s for late Sunday risers and anyone experiencing humor impairment.

 

[capster]

…
The issue before us is to forecast how long Tesla can prolong technological and marketing dominance. That is a very difficult task.

Indeed. The rates of change and tipping points are hard to get a handle on.

For example, Tesla and Elon are moving extremely quickly relative to what is a slow industry. Are they moving faster than regulators are typically capable of moving? Probably. But how much faster will the regulators move when their legacy automakers are in the midst of, ah, rapid unscheduled collapses?

"How did you [vintage automakers] go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."
Bastardized from Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises