Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

I thought last night he said they would make cells and the car in the same GF in China. Something about it making sense. Did he say batteries instead of cells? I’d have to listen again...

So, he said that the China GF would be the equivalent of Fremont and GF1 combined, so “making cars and batteries under one roof”, or words to that effect. So, maybe slightly ambiguous, you could say it supports making cells there or not, maybe nothing definitive about cells.

 

[TNEVol]

So according to you Elon cannot announce news or make optimistic statements during an after hours presentation? What's the difference with a after hours conference call? According to me those restrictions apply to twitter (or social media) only.

Wow did you take that wrong. I just think he is being cautioned about any over the top musings, projections speculation etc. This is not a good thing on my opinion because it constrains who he is. However it is a realistic possibility given the ridiculous level of certainty applied to him by a number of sources including the SEC

 

[EVNow]

So, he said that the China GF would be the equivalent of Fremont and GF1 combined, so “making cars and batteries under one roof”, or words to that effect. So, maybe slightly ambiguous, you could say it supports making cells there or not, maybe nothing definitive about cells.

There is also a question of end of this year vs eventually. Tesla probably wants to make the cells too, eventually. We don't know what they will do to begin with.

 

[EVNow]

For fair comparison we probably want to add the parts weight that are required for both drivetrain type, and also factor into the typical energy conversion efficiency. Comparing just energy density is probably not too helpful in reaching your conclusion.

For ICE, if you want to add more range, you just make the gas tank a little bigger. For BEV, you make the battery bigger. The volumetric density is equally ridiculously better for gasoline.

 

[Sudre]

It's pretty simple (in my opinion). If he pushes it, it will trigger people's buying emotions, but with no cars to sell (assumes they want a Y type car) there's a good chance they will buy some competitor's car and not be in the market for the Y when it's ready to be delivered.

I would agree with this because even before the Y event I have been looking everywhere to buy the competing vehicle. Since you seem to have found it could you tell me which one it is?
It should:
Cost $40K-$50K
Travel between 250-300 miles per charge
A higher ride height than 6"s (I still don't know if Y has this)
Add 100 miles of range in 5-10 minutes.
Not need fuel.

I am sure it is secretly being sold or at least announced by one of those German companies just not in the US.

 

[Sparky]

Slightly OT (or is it?): school kids all over the world are currently protesting against the lack of action on climate change. Have a look here (Electrek link, but not a Fred article), or follow #climatestrike on Twitter to get a sense of the scale of this movement, which hopefully won't go away too soon.

My point with this is, how many of these kids will choose an EV in the next 4-5 years? And how many of them will insist that their parents choose an EV as their next car, or at a minimum, introduce that notion to their parents?

Actually, I introduced that notion to my kids; starting about 11 years ago, with rooftop solar (which they helped install) and a crappy lead-acid Ford Ranger. But your timeline of 4-5 years might be right. None of my kids drive an EV. They all drive sub $10k cars because it's what they can afford. I'm sure they'll jump on a used Model 3 in 4-5 years. Maybe a Bolt. EVs that have any kind of range are still new enough that they are expensive for that age group IMO.

 

[kbM3]

↑
AudubonB said "3. Back to last night, a question: during the reveal, Mr Musk referred to this GF as equal (??) to the Fremont and Sparks factories combined. Did anyone understand that that means -"




Didn't Elon said they were sourcing cells from many companies in China including Pana? In other words they are not producing cells at GF3, just packs for vehicles and TE plus the cars.

I assume the suppliers would manufacture inside GF3, just like Panasonic does in GF1.

 

[Freder Reeve]

First photo of the pickup...
View attachment 386814

Reminds me of this Boring transporter design.

 

[AudubonB]

'Cept that's not a pick up; rather, it's a put down (way, way down).

 

[Joe F]

Tesla supposedly has the best & brightest engineers in the world and has been building for 10 years... that's silicon valley time. In Munich or Detroit time that's like 50 years. Tesla should be able to put a car together and properly tighten all the fasteners, and put on a windshield straight, but somehow they can't seem to do that.

I’m impressed in your ability to survey over 500 thousand owners to make that bold a claim. Must have missed my questionnaire.

 

[Nathan]

Reminds me of this Boring transporter design.

At the 23 second mark of the video whats that being carried in the black boring transporter on the left?
Anything of interest? Maybe just imagining things.

 

[RobStark]

Agreed. Found this with a quick google search of BMW US sales 2018...

"For the full year, BMW brand sales increased 1.7 percent on total sales of 311,014 compared to the 305,685 sold in 2017".

EDIT: I looked at the monthly chart in Rob's link. 175,368 is BMW's 2018 US sales through July only.

I guess goodcarbadcar needs more than 8 months to update their numbers

 

[Freder Reeve]

At the 23 second mark of the video whats that being carried in the black boring transporter on the left?
Anything of interest? Maybe just imagining things.

probably just the 2023 model Ώ.

The more I look at that new truck image the more definition I can make out of the front end, nice lines around the ..uhm.. place where headlights normally are... Has a very Rivian look actually with the headlight strip but looks like it has mean edges, I think I'll like it.

 

[RobStark]

The reveal was a bit surreal. It was nice to see Elon chatty and relaxed, but he really is a terrible public speaker, should find someone else high-up who's good at it to take over the main show, with Elon supporting.

But then Elon wouldn't have the star power to pick up celebrity hot chicks.

And it does give value to Tesla to be in People Magazine and on TMZ.

A lot of women I know, know about Elon because of celebrity gossip. And it piques their interest about Tesla.

 

[BornToFly]

What a disappointing week! Looks like I'm going to lose most of my money on the calls I bought for next Friday. I thought we would get more of a climb on the rumor going into last night. When that didn't happen, I thought we were safe from the drop. I was wrong again. When the SP went below 280 today I bought 2,500 shares on margin, hoping to sell them after a quick $10/share rise in the SP. Hopefully that happens soon, and I'm not wrong 3 for 3. At this point, the only thing that is going to bring the SP back up is RESULTS! As in huge production and delivery numbers. So I'm hoping that Tesla doesn't let us down in two weeks when Q1 numbers are released. Lately, my faith in Tesla has backfired on me, and the FUDsters are winning....

 

[MarcusMaximus]

What a disappointing week! Looks like I'm going to lose most of my money on the calls I bought for next Friday. I thought we would get more of a climb on the rumor going into last night. When that didn't happen, I thought we were safe from the drop. I was wrong again. When the SP went below 280 today I bought 2,500 shares on margin, hoping to sell them after a quick $10/share rise in the SP. Hopefully that happens soon, and I'm not wrong 3 for 3. At this point, the only thing that is going to bring the SP back up is RESULTS! As in huge production and delivery numbers. So I'm hoping that Tesla doesn't let us down in two weeks when Q1 numbers are released. Lately, my faith in Tesla has backfired on me....

Just a word of caution: historically, delivery numbers, even when they blow away expectations, have caused a big drop in SP.

 

[RobStark]

Not a fan of Hogan's Heroes I take it?

 

[RobStark]

No clue what it is...but "Enhance!"
View attachment 386841

Could be the bed with a cover?

Or the glass roof of the cabin?

 

[printf42]

My take, this the tail with bed cover, crew cab on the top-left carefully erased.

Wild guess: crew cab is there but lower than the bed, tapered forward that we couldn’t see, so the whole truck looks like a brick.

Who said trucks have to have commander driving position instead of race car driving position anyway.

A wilder guess: this is the front, the slots are head lights, dark plain is the windshield, it’s not perpetual to the ground but tilted by a small degree, driver sitting top-left under the glass facing right.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

NYTimes--So many car makers in retreat, if only there were one that had had the vision to see where the market was going in this climate changing world, it would be a great time to be expanding & taking market share. Anyone have any ideas?
What’s Driving Automakers Out of Europe?