I think one big damper will be S/X sales. The numbers in the Netherlands (expectedly) and Norway (unexpectedly) are downright abysmal. I don't think US S/X sales are to write home about either. The upsides are the massive discounts that may have helped move some metal (at the cost of gross margin) and possibly the import tax relief in China. Losing 5k sales on S/X with an average GM of $25k per car is already $125M profit headwind. Add in the discounts on existing models and we may see a sequential decline in profit contribution of $200M on the S/X segment.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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I think one big damper will be S/X sales. The numbers in the Netherlands (expectedly) and Norway (unexpectedly) are downright abysmal. I don't think US S/X sales are to write home about either. The upsides are the massive discounts that may have helped move some metal (at the cost of gross margin) and possibly the import tax relief in China. Losing 5k sales on S/X with an average GM of $25k per car is already $125M profit headwind. Add in the discounts on existing models and we may see a sequential decline in profit contribution of $200M on the S/X segment.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
The videos from people who rode in it said they doubt you could even get a car seat back there. (Kim at likeTesla). At the reveal did you notice the two women that got out of the back seat when they parked it on stage? They couldn't have been 5 feet tall.
Dan
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Maybe Grimes will fit. Maybe.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Third rows in SUVs of this size class are not used for road trips with 7 adult passengers.
They are used:
- By families of five or more, which is about 10% of U.S. households. In a family with 3 children the smallest or second smallest one goes into the third row.
- They are used by families of four that have plans for a third child. Average car ownership is 7 years, and we all know that wives are in firm control of the choice of the next family car. Husbands have an important advisory role, which more often than not is an honorary role with no real executive power.
- 7 seaters are also useful when soccer moms do small favors to befriended moms and take the kids of multiple families from A to B on smaller trips. Smallest ones go in the back.
- Most of the time the 3rd row seats are folded down and it serves as cargo space.
- Seating 7 adults is road legal and happens occasionally too, but mostly only during product unveilings.
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SebastianR
Active Member
I’m with you here. Also, Tesla guided for a loss, there is no reason to believe in a surprise profit. The max positive surprise I could fathom is a small non- GAAP profit but a GAAP loss.
It’s quite obvious: if you need 7 seats go for the X. If Tesla speaks of “adult seats” it’s only a matter of legality, not practicality (jump seats in Model S were legal only for kids).
Completely aside from all this: it got quiet about the Mini Bus, did it? In the X days, there was talk about Tesla releasing a Mini Bus...
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Do we have German S/X numbers? The corporate car tax incentives for EVs introduced this January are very generous - but might take time to be realized, as corporate purchases are often planned months in advance.
The Model X delivery estimate in Germany already shifted to May, which suggests that readily available inventory is tight.
But yes, I agree that sub-20k S/X deliveries and lower margins are possible in Q1.
Here, details + fotos included:
Why Tesla Model Y 3rd Row Is Key To It Becoming The Best Selling Vehicle In The World | CleanTechnica
Cheers!
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Great - thanks for this. I am very happy with this. Seems like with the middle row moving forwards, these should be fine for smaller adults and for short periods. I have happy memories of sitting in the back seat of an original Mini growing up - so my expectations are perhaps a little lower than most here!
Do you have any source that they cancelled boats (deliveries delayed in Europe? Haven´t heard of this...). Or just your assumption?
No. I'm wondering what makes you think there is no demand?Are you saying Model Y and Euro GF are nebulous futures ?
There isn't demand for 350k Model 3s in the US. So, it would be great if those lines can be used to make Y.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Note that Tesla generating 10 billion dollars of cash in the next 2 years is a conservative estimate which assumes zero growth - the real figure might be significantly more.
The gold mine of EV demand has only been scratched so far: the 3 trillion dollars EV market with 10-20% long term margins is going to generate income of 300-600 billion dollars per year.
Who is going to dominate that gold mine we don't know yet - but when the VW CEO was asked that question he answered with Tesla as his first choice:
So who’ll turn out to be the EV leader by 2030? Diess ponders the future. “What will be the names of the big players, I can’t tell you. It might be Tesla, it might be Apple, it might be someone from China. I hope that it will be still Volkswagen; we are working hard.”
VW's Herbert Diess Says Tesla Is Doing A Good Job & Has An Edge
VW's Herbert Diess Says Tesla Is Doing A Good Job & Has An Edge
True but 5k extra P3D at $20k margins and 50k extra AP upgrades at $2k each could cover this. I asume a lot more P3D will be sold in Q1 than in Q4. With increasing numbers of 3s produced the margins will improve. And some FSD functionality with automatic lanechanges could be taken home also.
I can see so many ways Tesla could be greatly underrepresenting how well things are going. People are talking about 30-50k delivered Model 3s and billions in losses, but I am not seeing it. With carsonight saying this today:
I have a feeling some analyst will be wrong with some hundred percents.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Those look like Porsche 911 rear seats.
I couldn't fit there if you gave me 100 shares of TSLA.
Just an assumption. Remember when Elon guided to a small loss? Everbody here assumed that it would be because vehicles in transit on boats. Now that we know there are no new boats departing from Pier 80, that theory is not valid anymore. I sincerely hope it is because they changed their delivery plan. If not, we’re looking at a planned losss not caused by vehicles in transit. Nobody here predicted that scenario.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Of that, 1008 was in Norway, a ratio of 4,5 to 1.
Halfway through March, there have been 1968 deliveries in Norway. Assuming that this rate of deliveries in Norway holds even (it's actually been accelerating), this would be 3936 Norway deliveries and nearly 18k deliveries in Europe alone (there have been as many ships going to China as to Europe, so if one assumes the same ratio, 36k international deliveries to Tesla markets that have the 3 for sale, plus 4700 in Canada Jan+Feb, an SR-boosted surge for March, and some extra S+X in other markets.
Honestly, I doubt a 4,5 to 1 ratio will hold (Norway vs. Europe) through the end of the month; I've been betting on a 3,5 to 1 ratio. Then again, Norway deliveries have been accelerating - starting the month at <100/d, now >150/d.
Either way, international deliveries have been rocking it this quarter.
And excepting Canada, and Mexico in March, all of the others are only available in high-margin variants.
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