Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

Christ i get the feeling that if you post anything here that suggests tesla may have made a mistake, or that maybe bitcoin was not the most awesome move ever, you are treated like the enemy.
Is this the INVESTORS thread, or the fan club? because believe it or not, you make better investment decisions when you can accept when tesla screwed up. Not everything elon does is 4D chess genius.

this x1000.

this forum has sadly turned into a poor source of information over the last year and a half or so, constantly insisting that Elon is sandbagging everything under the sun from Model S refresh deliveries, to Berlin production start date, to Plaid range, to 4680 production, to Semi production, and much more -- all of which turned out to be wrong. You will have a much better track record simply taking Elon at his word (and even better if you take his timelines with a grain of salt).

Too many of you have become openly hostile to any posts that aren't outright pie-in-the-sky cheerleading, and too many of you are operating from the inherent assumption that Elon can fundamentally never be wrong about anything. It's intellectually lazy, unhealthy, and and irresponsible form of investing.

Seek knowledge, not reassurance.

let the downvotes roll.

 

[Tempus]

Here's a question for the people who think Giga Nevada was a screw-up:

How do you think Tesla would be in such a dominate position in terms of battery supply if they didn't build Giga Nevada when they did?

Batteries don't just materialize out of thin air!

You can have the position that it was the best possible option for them at the time, but still think it's not the most optimal in the current state of things. Clearly there are issues with attracting talent to Nevada if nothing else. I think those are worth discussing. Revisit decisions in light of new status/information, etc..

It's not like they are going to just shut down GF-1, but clearly they are looking in other places for future expansions.

 

[StealthP3D]

We need the help of an expert to model the tesla energy financial next 5-10 years

As an investor I have found it less than useful to try to model things to within a gnat's eyelash. I look at broad trends and deal with probabilities of success/failure. Detailed financial modelling is only useful for marginal businesses, businesses I don't want to invest in. If the difference between success and failure is so close I need to model it in a spreadsheet, it's not where I want to risk my capital. But if it makes you feel more "professional", knock yourself out!

This is closely related to the false belief that, at any point in time, a growth company has a "fair" valuation that can be calculated using financial formulas and this "valuation" is useful in profitably timing your buys and sells. That's what Wall Street wants retail investors to believe (so they can sell you stock when they want to unload and buy your shares when they want to buy) but it doesn't work that way. Growth companies and public markets are so dynamic any such modelling gets lost in the noise of how the markets actually value companies.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You can have the position that it was the best possible option for them at the time, but still think it's not the most optimal in the current state of things. Clearly there are issues with attracting talent to Nevada if nothing else. I think those are worth discussing. Revisit decisions in light of new status/information, etc..

It's not like they are going to just shut down GF-1, but clearly they are looking in other places for future expansions.

I think we've all forgotten that Nevada GF was opened in 2014....Cheap land was probably a big deciding factor starting out for them.

 

[Mengy]

You can have the position that it was the best possible option for them at the time, but still think it's not the most optimal in the current state of things. Clearly there are issues with attracting talent to Nevada if nothing else. I think those are worth discussing. Revisit decisions in light of new status/information, etc..

It's not like they are going to just shut down GF-1, but clearly they are looking in other places for future expansions.

I agree with this, and it even lines up with Elon's constant search for new talented hires for Tesla. A new battery factory in Austin today would likely attract better talent than the Nevada plant currently does simply due to location.

 

[petit_bateau]

The big question is how do we ramp up storage from today to 2030.
Volume will be huge for Battery and Solar
Will solar panel be the next bottleneck since New annual installations in 2020 will reach 142 gigawatts (GW), a 14% rise over the previous year?

We need the help of an expert to model the tesla energy financial next 5-10 years

It is simply a matter of cell supply. Right now the energy sector will take every lithium cell available and make storage products with it. The energy sector is highly motivated to do that because it allows them to drive cheap despatchable renewables (both wind & solar) deeper into the market and retire uneconomic coal/oil (and soon gas) off the grid as fast as possible, globally.

But wrapping a cell in a mobility wrapper, and calling it a vehicle, is currently yielding a greater $$ margin per cell than doing the same with storage products in a stationary wrapper.

Only when the GM% in BEV vehicles starts to decline significantly will we see an upwards inflexion in the rate of adoption of stationary storage. I guess that will be the very late 2020s. Until then the stationary stuff will be a proportionate sidestream of the mobility stuff. At present Tesla is averaging about 5% of cell use in stationary, and my models are based on that growing to just over 30% in 2030.

The financial modelling is easy - the actual storage products are pretty much the same GM% as the cars. The tricky bit is figuring out when the solar stops being a drag on the energy division, and becomes significant in and of its own right.

(By the way, I do not think second-use mobility cells will be coming out of Tesla vehicles and being repurposed into stationary in any significant quantities before 2030. Niche amounts yes, significant amounts no).

 

[StealthP3D]

You can have the position that it was the best possible option for them at the time, but still think it's not the most optimal in the current state of things. Clearly there are issues with attracting talent to Nevada if nothing else. I think those are worth discussing. Revisit decisions in light of new status/information, etc..

It's not like they are going to just shut down GF-1, but clearly they are looking in other places for future expansions.

Discuss all you want but it doesn't change the fact that Tesla is in an enviable position in terms of current and future battery supply. Success would not be possible without this lead in battery supply. I also think the desert location is going to prove it's worth many times over in coming years. Watch and see.

Yes, robotics really are a thing!

 

[Chenkers]

I think we've all forgotten that Nevada GF was opened in 2014....Cheap land was probably a big deciding factor starting out for them.

That and the Nevada legislature approving a $1.3B incentive package over 20 years.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

That and the Nevada legislature approving a $1.3B incentive package over 20 years.

May have had something to do with their decision as well........

 

[PeterJA]

Christ i get the feeling that if you post anything here that suggests tesla may have made a mistake, or that maybe bitcoin was not the most awesome move ever, you are treated like the enemy.
Is this the INVESTORS thread, or the fan club? because believe it or not, you make better investment decisions when you can accept when tesla screwed up. Not everything elon does is 4D chess genius.

You got a Disagree from me when you posted false information: "There has been zero confirmation that tesla is even designing such a car." (It was confirmed at Battery Day and at least one earnings report.) And you got another one when you claimed the first one was for criticizing Tesla.

Get your facts straight, positive or negative, and I'll give you a big pink heart.

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla wants to go lithium for 12-v.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419571113076695040

EM does not wish to profit from Service but a Li Battery is a product. Batteries and filters are good for profits.

A great program would be to offer free installation of Li Batteries and filters (purchased) on a request basis (no critical response time). Service labor is a sunk cost mostly so on a time available basis this could be great.

Imagine pulling into a super charger and having a Li battery installed while charging up. I think it could be done while charging but might be tricky.

 

[S3XY]

Nothing to see here.

 

[JustMe]

$TSLA

 

[Krugerrand]

Christ i get the feeling that if you post anything here that suggests tesla may have made a mistake, or that maybe bitcoin was not the most awesome move ever, you are treated like the enemy.
Is this the INVESTORS thread, or the fan club? because believe it or not, you make better investment decisions when you can accept when tesla screwed up. Not everything elon does is 4D chess genius.

I get the feeling you’re awfully sensitive when people don’t agree with you.

1. This is a fan club.
2. This is also the investor thread of said fan club where for years we have discussed in minute detail all aspects of Tesla. It’s why many of us are now monetarily well off. Clearly the investment thread has worked despite your attempt at belittling it and its participants.
3. Don’t be the ‘hindsight’ guy who neglects to remember the situations and circumstances surrounding decisions made years ago.
4. Nobody has ever said mistakes haven’t been made, but saying that something might have been a screw up after the fact doesn’t make you some investment prophet nor add to investment decisions going forward, especially when you’ve just done #3 and entirely mislabeled a decision.
5. Consider for a moment you’ve only been here for 3 years and perhaps might not possess the information of the years prior to your joining - ironically the years in which Tesla was making decisions about Gigafactory #1.
6. I’ve been all in Tesla/TSLA since 2012. I’m aware of absolutely everything of public record and while GigaNevada hasn’t turned out the way Tesla initially envisioned it, it wasn’t a screw up.
7. Mistakes and fails are not ‘negatives’ to Tesla/any Elon company. ‘Fail as fast as you can’ is in fact a very good strategy in this case.

GigaNevada has been instrumental in Tesla’s success. It’s a testing ground and its existence has helped model future factories; locations, layouts, efficiencies, increased vertical integration. partnerships, etc…

It’s been a huge success regardless of not reaching its original intended ‘dream’.

 

[Ratanpara]

Elon is sending cryptographic message ?, Big Bang theory !, may be Tesla wants to prove they could be highly profitable without credit, don't have courage to bet short term price movement, own plenty of share.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm actually in favor of LESS pertinent financial information making it public because there are very good reasons why less awareness of TSLA's strong position furthers the mission more. Sometimes things are not as simple as they appear and there are multiple advantages to having less awareness of just how dominate Tesla's position is (and will become).

The speed of the EV revolution does not depend upon the detail of financial information of the company that is making it happen being made public. Change will occur more rapidly when the primary threat (TSLA) is not viewed as unstoppable or without credible competition. And this race is ALL about change and the speed of change. The share price will follow.

As a side benefit, less awareness of how dominate Tesla really is, and is likely to become, allows for more accumulation of shares at bargain prices. It's in the best interest of Tesla's mission for the valuation of TSLA to not be too heavily based on future assumptions that already include the bull case. This allows a broader ownership base and more people rooting for success as they support Tesla's product offerings in word and in deed.

Sure, we all want the share price to appreciate as much as possible, I get that. But there are very good reasons why patience is considered a virtue and why that is very applicable here. Tesla will ultimately become more successful at creating change if the share price trajectory more closely resembles a steam locomotive rather than an explosion.

I love what you’ve said, but explosions are so pretty.

 

[dm28997]

I'm dabbling in various cryptocurrencies and was happy to see the large gains today as well as TSLA. Just a tip that I found out is that there seems to be no 30 day wash rule for cryptos. If one has large gains in some stocks one can sell/buy the same day like a pro trader to offset capital gains. But I am a HODL person and have been buying whenever extra chairs are available.
I could be wrong about the no wash rule but I don't thing so(Munk)

 

[Krugerrand]

You can have the position that it was the best possible option for them at the time, but still think it's not the most optimal in the current state of things. Clearly there are issues with attracting talent to Nevada if nothing else. I think those are worth discussing. Revisit decisions in light of new status/information, etc..

It's not like they are going to just shut down GF-1, but clearly they are looking in other places for future expansions.

And how does having that thought help investors? It’s done, it’s over with. Tesla is making the most of the decision made years ago. Any mistakes they made, they’ve identified and moved on.

Maybe people could take a lesson from that; not dwelling on mistakes and the negative, instead learn and move forward.

The need for some to look backwards, to hold tight to the past, to believe that being positive is a bad thing, that you have to be negative to have a clear and balanced view is utterly false, toxic and self limiting.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think we've all forgotten that Nevada GF was opened in 2014....Cheap land was probably a big deciding factor starting out for them.

And tax breaks/incentives and fast permits and less regulations and proximity to Fremont and inexpensive housing and on and on.

 

[larmor]

Sigh.
All I suggested was that maybe the LOCATION OF THE FACTORY was a poor decision. Show me where I said tesla should not make batteries. Look at the current footprint of the factory vs the renders of its 'final size' that were shown a lot at the time. Clearly tesla have WISELY decided not to build out the final footprint. All I asked was peoples views on whether this was labor shortage related, or a mis-judgement of the automation possibilities.
How on earth does that read as 'tesla should never have built a battery factory'?
smh.

The take away from battery day, imo, was that the footprint of a GF battery plant was markedly smaller than they expected.