Tesla said there would be a China designed new model. The design center was announced in January 2020:
Tesla CEO expresses fondness for Chinese art and shows a sketch for what could be a future China-market vehicle.
www.caranddriver.com
I have copy of the concept on my office wall.
Whatever 'trial production' might be, the logical conclusions, I think, is that the entire 'underbody' including suspension components may well be made on a single Gigapress. Bizarrely this may not fit the historical notion of 'unibody' but it will make introducing multiple form factors on the same line a relatively easy process, and the China vehicle is being designed to do that from the outset.There are been numerous hints of inclusions of suspension and even a hint or two that wheels might be included somehow. We have no specifics but plenty of hints. There is also the CATL plant being built next door and they're already building battery packs for Tesla plus doing large amounts of battery R&D.
We also know that Zeng Yuqun (AKA: Robin Zeng) and Elon Musk talk frequently and share technical insights. It is quite reasonable to imagine that CATL battery technology will power the China designed vehicle.
Perhaps unusual is that Tesla has not made any formal announcements about all this since January 2020. My personal guess is that this vehicle will enter volume production sometime toward the end of 2022.
The production technologies already working for Model Y will expand to other lines. Just as soon as the Cybertruck enters production there will have been major technical advances that will enable cheap, durable and resistant bodies. As 4680's mature that too enters the mix.
I believe that the China designed vehicle will incorporate Gigapress and CATL battery advances plus a few surprises. That will enable much cheaper production at high volumes. All of that will be being disclosed during the next six months.
Following Cybertruck production with 4680's the soon to be developed German car will appear. There are few clues, but I'll be surprised if it will not be an SUV/hatch in roughly the Peugeot 208/2008, VW Golf class, but slightly larger. That will have major commonalities with the China design, but will be slightly larger, have more capable running gear and will be tuned for higher speed operation. In short, it will have all the classic capabilities of a "hot hatch" but also have a larger SUV version launched together with in (again think Peugeot 208/2008, VW Golf/Taos).
Each of these will end out being the same price as equivalent ICE, but all of them will have higher range than most people think they will.
FWIW, everything we seem to know now suggests that 2023 will probably have major updates for Model 3 and Y with 4680 structural packs across the board. I believe that because Panasonic and LG both say they're working on 4680's and CATL. has disclosed nothing other than the 80GWh plant going pop,beside Tesla, so they may or Amy not do 4680's but they're certainly preparing to supply structural packs.
There will also be multiple factories to build Superchargers and other TE products. Further, energy storage done cooperatively with large scale renewable installations as well as commercial and residential products cannot be neglected. They need massive storage supply, new battery capacity and technology advance will enable that within the next two years.
Global car markets have these types of vehicles as the largest volume vehicles in the vast majority of high volume markets. The highest volume exceptions are India, which trends slightly smaller (excluding tuctuc/auto rickshaw) so an adaptation fo the China model will be an India CKD, assuming the Indian government can allow Tesla the terms it needs). Variants of the China and German models will be built (either CKD or manufacture) in other global markets. Further, some of them will also supply raw materials and/or components to other Tesla factories. Much of this will be developing during 2022/2023.
Doing most of this in one form or another will be essential to maintain a 50% vehicle growth rate.
Even a conservative five year forecast requires all of this even if not in this precise form.
Doing this will allow a 5,000,000 annualized vehicle production rate in 2025.
A quick view of the 25 largest vehicle markets in the world will make it clear that BEV adoption in most of the world is necessary to advance the mission.
That is my personal crystal ball. I do not claim prescience.
I freely admit that this ranks as a close analogue to "the Heart of Gold" but I do not think it requires an "infinite improbability Drive".
IT is well to note, however, that the rough 2020 annual unit sales by familiar OEMs went like this:
Toyota. 9.5 million
VAG. 9.3 million
GM. 6.8 million
Stellantis 6.2 million
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi
4.5 million
Hyundai 4.5 million
Ford. 4.2 million
Can Tesla outsell Renault, Hyundai and Ford? If they do, from whom will they take share?
Will the markets be much higher than the non-very-stellar 2020?
What will the displaced auto dealers do?
What will the oil and gas industry do?
From whence commeth all those charging stations?
If that happens what will be the state of Tesla Energy?
Will Elon Musk still be alive then?
It is easy to forecast, but making it actually happen is another thing entirely.
