I've noticed the token phrase "demand worries" has now been replaced with "chip supply worries" when it comes to applying logic.
It takes me all of 2 mins using logic to determine why the wait time keeps getting extended and guess what.........it all comes down to demand crossing an inflection point.
Here's the most recent data and facts we can go off of :
- At the end of Elon's long monologue of supply challenges, he clearly states the chip supply is improving
- Seconds after that, Zach comes in and reiterates they expect the majority of their sales and production ramp to happen in the 2nd half of the year
- Meaning at worst production will be improving 10-15% each quarter. Granted most of the growth is coming from Giga China, but Fremont production is going to stay at Q2 levels. Maybe a slight improvement (I'm excluding S production)
- It's US delivery times that continually keep getting longer and longer
- Giga China is now the export HUB leaving more production for US markets now from Fremont
Therefore, if we know that US production is at worst staying at Q2 production levels, if demand wasn't exploding right now, delivery times would be moving in sync with each month of production. Meaning if say we're in July and delivery dates are Sept, then once we get into Aug delivery times should then go to Oct. But we're seeing delivery times being pushed out repeatedly, well ahead of production months.