What's really wild is that EPS estimate of $7.56 is off by about 75-100%. I'm very confident Tesla will do at least $12 EPS in 2022, with $15 EPS a possibility depending on production and software.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
What's really wild is that EPS estimate of $7.56 is off by about 75-100%. I'm very confident Tesla will do at least $12 EPS in 2022, with $15 EPS a possibility depending on production and software.
$BTC up 6.5%....so $TSLA should be up also?
That's guys expert opinion has been practically wrong on everything
- Bitcoin and Tesla are correlated.....yet TSLA does not go up when Bitcoin goes up and goes down whenever Bitcoin drops
- The 10 yr note and Tesla are correlated......yet the 10 yr dropped 40% before todays move and Tesla is around the same price as when the 10 yr was at it's peak
- Says TSLA shares will rally if they can beat on "this" or "that". Tesla beats and the stock still drops.
The thing that annoys me the most about that "expert" is he's from Wall St. He knows the games being played. He knows exactly how the stock is being held down. But if he openly starts saying to all his followers he's gotten from covering TSLA "Hey well guess what the game is completely rigged and you just have to put up with it until Wall St determines it's ready".....well then he would be outing his Wall St buddies.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
As written now it appears to take effect Jan 1, 2022 and NOT apply retroactively to 2021. Someone posted the text yesterday. Who knows if this will be the final form. That being said, if it is, it’s obviously going to present some issues for Q4 push, as I’d imagine many folks taking delivery in late December will try to push forward. On the other hand, if caveats such as income limits etc. negate much of the benefit, you may see some of those buyers absorb those vehicles EOQ.
Also consider the wait time. Anyone that pushes off their order goes to the back of the line. The expected delivery time for a 3/Y could be all the way into summer for people ordering in Q4.
Also, if you have an order in now........you've locked in the price right now. Who knows how much Tesla raises price when the EV credit get's passed. If you decline your order, you have to pay the new pricing.
Boss just came in to tell me that he ordered a Model 3 - not getting it till November. Was tempted to thank him for the Q4 revenue bump, but if he knew how much stock I own he might be less inclined to give me a raise...
The better then expected July employment report has led to a big jump in the yield of 10-yr treasury notes. This reduces the discounted cash flow calculation, and hence the current share price of high growth stocks like TSLA. That should be a far greater factor in TSLA pricing than bitcoins.$BTC up 6.5%....so $TSLA should be up also?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yup, with the Nov. delivery date if ordering today I'm waiting until the new year.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Yeah from a personal consumer standpoint I’m happy to have flexibility with my Dec delivery target. These things tend to wash out and whether it’s avoiding a price hike, or Tesla ends up incentivizing early delivery, I highly doubt folks will end up paying 10K less mere days later.
What are people doing with their money instead? Putting it into low growth stocks? i really don't understand this line of thinking.
That's something I don't get either. I know how the formula's work that say that technically growth stocks are devalued but I think that's the wrong way of looking at things.
I would expect Tesla to do something like when the EV bill is passed, probably in Sept or Oct, to announce a price hike of anywhere from $2,000-4,000 ALONG with announcing that anyone willing to take delivery by the end of the year will get $2,000-3,000 off. So effectively that $10,000 price difference goes down to say only a 3-5k difference. I could see them also doing something like you get 3 or 6 months free of FSD subscription model.
Keep in mind when it comes to earnings, a lot of the price hikes over the past few months were NOT included in the Q2 earnings because the cars sold in Q2 were ordered before the price hikes. The 3/Y have both increased about 3-4k that will start showing it's affects on Q3 earnings. So Tesla could drop the price of the 3/Y in Q4 in the strategy I mentioned above and it would have little to no impact on margins (in relation to Q2's margins).
There is little chance the US administration is going to back down on this whatever the legal ramifications wrt current trade agreements. There is no way the US government, indeed any government that has automakers within its jurisdiction, is going to stand by and let those automakers collapse without trying to intervene.
The US administration will probably just tell other countries with their own automotive companies that they are welcome to do the same and it won’t object. Or, it’ll try to negotiate some other accommodation with them.
I don’t expect this will trigger an all-out trade war, because other countries/regions with automakers will need to take their own steps to assist those companies through the transition.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Sure, sure, the 2021Q3 N. American Superchargers location map is impressive in scale and coverage:
But I wonder if folks have truly grokked just the planned ADDITIONS to the SuC network: (color math adjusted image attached)
I'm thinking a trip down to old Mexico may be in order for 2022 (until then there's the 83 new L3 stations being added by BC Hydro in Fall '21). It's nothing less than an auto travel rEVolution!
Cheers!
But I wonder if folks have truly grokked just the planned ADDITIONS to the SuC network: (color math adjusted image attached)
I'm thinking a trip down to old Mexico may be in order for 2022 (until then there's the 83 new L3 stations being added by BC Hydro in Fall '21). It's nothing less than an auto travel rEVolution!
Cheers!
I really can't wait for to see July's China production numbers.......every time Wu Wan has done his fly overs, the lot is filled more than I ever saw in Q2 ( 9 min mark). And we know they have a constant flow of trucks taking cars away, sometimes upwards of 15 trucks at one time loading while more arrive. Seems like there's less transport trucks on the lot right now because this video was taken during a shift change (you can see the line of buses transporting works from the factory)
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A dollar received today is considered to be of greater value than a dollar for which one has to wait. If interest rates and/or inflation rises, then having to wait for that dollar becomes more costly. For high growth stocks, the current value of the expected cash flow well into the future is heavily influenced by interest rate and inflation outlooks. This is not nearly as much of a consideration in the current pricing of low growth stocks.
Well, if you invest in the high growth company, that 100K you put in might only return 95% instead of 100% in a few years because of the change in interest rates. That would be dumb. Much better to put it into something returning 10% a year at most.
Thanks for the info. So it's basically a marshmallow test and investors fail it when interest rates increase a little bit.
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woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
I think you’re spot-on. Many strategies exist to ensure Q4 deliveries don’t collapse. I think some of the price hikes have been in preparation.
EOY will be an interesting time for Model Y buyers. FSD valuation may be in flux, Austin/4680 status, etc.
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