Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[22522]

Well... a few lines of code and rear brakes with integrated parking brake. Regulations require seperate service and parking brake mechanisms.

On his very first Tesla tear down Sandy wondered how they got around these regulations. They may short the motor coil or something electrical to make the separate happen.

 

[jbcarioca]

I’m xx and have 30 years to go to beat my father’s retirement age. Piece of cake, I figure.

Since you know how old I am, my maternal uncle retired when he was 25 years older than I am now. He managed to get a speeding citation the year before he retired. Because I expect, maybe, to receive my new Plaid prior to my own retirement maybe I can emulate him also in that respect. I hope not, but the Plaid does beckon.

Would it not be useful to understand the age distribution of refresh model S Plaid buyers? I rather suspect a majority of the US ones may be eligible for Medicare.

 

[22522]

I hate this sort of thing. Its the sort of hyperbolic stock-pumping that would make crypto-enthusiasts blush. Tesla is amazing, and Elon extremely accomplished. we do not need to extrapolate wildly or exaggerate the situation like this. There are limits to how fast a single company can grow, and there are geopolitical reasons why a single american-owned company is going to be stopped before it dominates the global battery business.

Some people seem to think that tesla is staffed entirely by nobel prize worthy super-geniuses that turn everything they touch into gold. Its a great company, but companies can make mistakes. There is absolutely no guarantee that tesla holds on to its market share in battery storage. In the UK, you cannot get a powerwall without a long waiting time, but other companies, like alpha-ess exist and supply batteries.

Battery storage and solar rivals to tesla are not weighed down by legacy tech in the same way the big auto firms are. I see a massive competitive advantage for tesla in cars & trucks. I dont see a similar level of advantage in stationary storage. And you can see this in the financials. How many years have we heard "this is the year of the solar roof" and "tesla energy will take off this year". Its still so far a footnote.

The advantage is in the scale of the battery buy that Tesla makes. Call it vertical integration, but it is really purchasing leverage and relationship leverage. The most expensive part of the system costs 1/2 as much for Tesla.

 

[Buckminster]

Wanted to explain my disagree.

The video doesn’t say it would be worth that; but that it could be worth that.

I don’t see how you could argue that Tesla doesn’t have a technology advantage in energy. What about autobidder and their battery advantages, vertical integration and brand dominance.

As for geopolitical risk I think we’ve already seen Tesla display an ability to successfully enter foreign markets.

TAM is massive as we need a complete rebuild of our energy infrastructure and energy demands will continue to increase exponentially as BEV market penetration continues.

I’m not trying to change your mind or argue that I’m right and your wrong. Just saying that ruling it out as a POSSIBLE outcome may be a foolish errand.

I'm staying out of this - in my $125T 2030 estimate TE just washes robotaxi's face so is valued at zero (Jonas style).

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Giga Texas paint shop being tested...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1424012182614798343

 

[S3XY]

Amnerica / Senior moments FTFY


View attachment 692880


Also from the archives - 2016:
" ..
BIDEN: I had to pay this man $10. He's from the New York Times. We had a bet: which is the faster car, the newer Cadillac or the new Musk car. Which?
POOLER: Tesla.
BIDEN: The Tesla. I bet the Cadillac.

publicpool.gawker.com/subject-biden-meets-cardinal-parolin-discusses-bet-s

Subject: Biden meets Cardinal Parolin, discusses bet, seeks absolution but not $10: pool 4​

poolreports
4/29/16 8:50am

From: Harris, Gardiner [email protected]
Sent: Friday, April 29, 2016 13:58
To: Goodman, Meghan K. EOP/OVP
Subject: Biden meets Cardinal Parolin, discusses bet, seeks absolution but not $10: pool 4

After meeting privately with Pope Francis, VPOTUS met with Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State. The two men shook hands in the Treaty Room and then moved into a second room.

Here is a transcript of Mr. Biden's remarks, courtesy of Michael A. Memoli of the Los Angeles Times:


BIDEN: What an honor to see you again.
(SHAKE)
BIDEN: I don't know whether you know, your photograph is hanging in my office.
PAROLIN: Oh yeah?
BIDEN; Yes, from our meeting.
PAROLIN: You have already met with the Holy Father.
BIDEN: I have met with the Holy Father. And I've met with these guys, too.
(GESTURES TO POOL THEN GRIPS YOUR POOLER)
BIDEN: I had to pay this man $10. He's from the New York Times. We had a bet: which is the faster car, the newer Cadillac or the new Musk car. Which?
POOLER: Tesla.
BIDEN: The Tesla. I bet the Cadillac.
POOLER: He went for the old technology. I went for the new.
PAROLIN: Oh yes?
BIDEN: The Tesla's two tenths of a second faster. But I lost. I paid my $10. (LOUDER TO ENTIRE POOL, ROOM AND PERHAPS CITY) I want the record to show, I paid my $10.
MEMOLI (CATHOLIC REPRESENTATIVE IN POOL): Does that count as a confession, sir?
BIDEN: I'm seeking absolution!

Betting is not a sin but tends to be discouraged by religious authorities. Timothy 6:10 warns against a love of money, and Jesus's run-in with the money-changers suggested a strong aversion.

Still, Biden's bet seems unlikely to generate the same consternation as his support of abortion rights and gay marriage. Cardinal Parolin seemed unconcerned.

Gardiner Harris
White House Correspondent
The New York Times
1627 I St. NW Suite 700
Washington DC 20006
Desk: +202-xxx-xxxx
Cell: +202-xxx-xxxx

Uh, not sure why this post still exists in this thread but since it does I guess I can respond then? I'll just say this. Ever hear of a game called Bingo? Oh, that's a "fund raiser". Never mind.

 

[mongo]

On his very first Tesla tear down Sandy wondered how they got around these regulations. They may short the motor coil or something electrical to make the separate happen.

He did?
Strange, since Tesla has been using seperate or integrated parking brake motors since at least the S (including one recall for gear failure).
From the Y parts catalog:

 

[22522]

He did?
Strange, since Tesla has been using seperate or integrated parking brake motors since at least the S (including one recall for gear failure).
From the Y parts catalog:
View attachment 693424

He was ranting about the pawl in the transmission if I recall correctly. No Pawl.

 

[jbcarioca]

... There is absolutely no guarantee that tesla holds on to its market share in battery storage. In the UK, you cannot get a powerwall without a long waiting time, but other companies, like alpha-ess exist and supply batteries...

Battery storage and solar rivals to tesla are not weighed down by legacy tech in the same way the big auto firms are. I see a massive competitive advantage for tesla in cars & trucks. I dont see a similar level of advantage in stationary storage...

There seem to be some disagreement on your post. One could argue for a slight bit of moderation, but your overall point is unquestionably correct. Fluence, BYD, Samsung SDI, LG Chem and traditional names such as GE, Parker Hannifin, Siemens and AES are larger than is Tesla in stationary energy storage. There is indeed massive opportunity for Tesla too, not least because of Autobidder.

We must all be honest enough to realize that when giants such as GE become the producers for the world's largest wind turbines, however briefly they hold that position, they recognize that those turbines will count for little without massive storage to support it, and extremely adaptable grid services to support them both.

Tesla accomplished great things with Hornsdale and they['ve begun to do more. They are famously 'battery short' so TE products have Samsung SDI, LG and other suppliers for the cells. As Tesla states, vehicles come first. That opens the field more for all those utility industry traditional suppliers.

Two years ago I was convinced that Tesla has a huge competitive advantage for stationary storage. They still do, because the world is constrained. Neither utilities or homeowners will be thrilled to wait two years or so when fast deployment is one huge potential advantage for batteries. That means Tesla will probably be a major player for powering new residential developments, for which solar roof is a really major advantage, as is Powerwall. That does not make Tesla a major utility player.

Nothing in this suggests that TE cannot be a major business. However, Tesla support is inadequate even in the primary auto business. Powerwall support seems to be fairly similar.

Tesla now have two huge challenges in customer service. Every single thing in Vehicles including sales, delivery, parts and service. The vehicles themselves are quite wonderful. The second one is in Tesla Energy. In that one excellent customer service is a standard expectation and Tesla does not provide that.

Sadly, this is such an impediment that I believe the Tesla growth constraint is now customer service, possibly even more than batteries and factory capacity.

 

[YAWD]

As long as you leave the world a better place than it previously was, you can become financially independent and retire early IMO. The secret is to find a job you love, that you would do for free, that is useful for others and that make the world a better place for others. The problem is to resist retiring early because of the irritating aspects of any job. Elon probably realizes himself more by working everyday, taking no vacation, creating new technology, taking no vacation, of on the end it means bring the world to transition to sustainable energy and making the human race multiplanetary. These are noble goals for a noble cause to avoid extinction of the human race. I wouldn’t mind any employee at Walmart or McDonald’s who made a fortune through TSLA investment retiring early and helping their local community by any other mean. Some millennials like Jimmy Donaldson with his MrBeast YT channel give back more to the community than some other classic job. I think we should stop judging job by their salary or their wage but by how much they tend to improve the living of others and how much they positively affect the next generation on the planet, without destroying it along the way.

Thank you.

 

[Etna]

Part II of Everyday Astronaut Starbase tour with Elon:

 

[lafrisbee]

There is a weekend coming up. IF, at the end of it, any post appears that has the merest whiff of political posturing - for or against any US political party or prominent player in the political sphere - it will earn the rest of the community a 3-month reprise from its author’s repeated violations of TMC rules.

Jeffrey Epstein did not kill himself!

 

[Paracelsus]

It was encouraging to see many people on TMC agree that the efforts of the UAW, the not-so-big-3, and this administration to snub Tesla & Elon at this week’s event would likely backfire on them, and ultimately provide positive free press in the form of public pushback (no advertising dollars needed once again). And as we roll into the weekend that definitely seems to be the case, with all those we usually post here on Twitter punching back with the enthusiastic support of the combined millions of followers (Twitter has been a critical support tool for Tesla over the years IMO). One of these folks very rarely mentioned here is Sam Kelly, who is worth checking in on from time to time, and who went full-tilt in his reaction to the insanity of this last week’s events:

 

[mongo]

He was ranting about the pawl in the transmission if I recall correctly. No Pawl.

Yeah, just like all manual transmission cars.
Even on automatics, the parking brake is separate.
OH, now that I think about it, the parking prawl can't be the parking (emergency) brake. So the Mach-E must have additional hw on the brakes already and the prawl is a redundant component.
Yup, checked the forums, manually activated electronic parking brake that is only automatically applied on large slopes. On flats, it relies on the prawl.

 

[Jack6591]

Forgive the off topic, but I love number one. Got to go, I’m headed to Walmart…

 

[Ipcress]

There seem to be some disagreement on your post. One could argue for a slight bit of moderation, but your overall point is unquestionably correct. Fluence, BYD, Samsung SDI, LG Chem and traditional names such as GE, Parker Hannifin, Siemens and AES are larger than is Tesla in stationary energy storage. There is indeed massive opportunity for Tesla too, not least because of Autobidder.

We must all be honest enough to realize that when giants such as GE become the producers for the world's largest wind turbines, however briefly they hold that position, they recognize that those turbines will count for little without massive storage to support it, and extremely adaptable grid services to support them both.

Tesla accomplished great things with Hornsdale and they['ve begun to do more. They are famously 'battery short' so TE products have Samsung SDI, LG and other suppliers for the cells. As Tesla states, vehicles come first. That opens the field more for all those utility industry traditional suppliers.

Two years ago I was convinced that Tesla has a huge competitive advantage for stationary storage. They still do, because the world is constrained. Neither utilities or homeowners will be thrilled to wait two years or so when fast deployment is one huge potential advantage for batteries. That means Tesla will probably be a major player for powering new residential developments, for which solar roof is a really major advantage, as is Powerwall. That does not make Tesla a major utility player.

Nothing in this suggests that TE cannot be a major business. However, Tesla support is inadequate even in the primary auto business. Powerwall support seems to be fairly similar.

Tesla now have two huge challenges in customer service. Every single thing in Vehicles including sales, delivery, parts and service. The vehicles themselves are quite wonderful. The second one is in Tesla Energy. In that one excellent customer service is a standard expectation and Tesla does not provide that.

Sadly, this is such an impediment that I believe the Tesla growth constraint is now customer service, possibly even more than batteries and factory capacity.

Another thoughtful, balanced post from jbcarioca.

I'm in the throes of trying to purchase a Tesla solar panel roof and powerwalls--now since May, and I still don't have a final design or quote. Three different advisors so far, tech visit to the house, and I can't seem to reach the current advisor... I'm about to bail and choose a local installer, and pay a lot more. All this is infuriating as a Tesla shareholder and supporter.

Service is absolutely a stress/failure point with TE, and from what I've read vehicles. I'll be ordering a MY soon, and am cringing at the dysfunction I'm letting myself in for to own it, based on everything I've been reading. Hoping I'm one of the lucky ones who has a good experience.

 

[AquaY]

Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.

Listen, strange women lyin' in ponds distributin' swords is no basis for a system of government!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Part II of Everyday Astronaut Starbase tour with Elon:

His back is really hurting him in this one. You can see him having to stretch his arms and neck as he's walking around.

 

[AquaY]

"When Tesla sells a car, they don't satisfy 1 unit of demand. Instead the car sold satisfies one unit of demand and creates 1.2 or 1.5 or something units of new demand". What a great concept. Much like how we assess the "spreadability" of a virus by it R-nought (R with a subscript 0).

We could call that unit a "CarNought" !

In my case when Tesla delivered my Model Y satisfying that 1 unit of demand it created 4+ new units of demand.
I now want an S Plaid as well as my CT And now I want the Cyber ATV as well. 2 friends ordered Teslas after driving mine As well

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Another thoughtful, balanced post from jbcarioca.

I'm in the throes of trying to purchase a Tesla solar panel roof and powerwalls--now since May, and I still don't have a final design or quote. Three different advisors so far, tech visit to the house, and I can't seem to reach the current advisor... I'm about to bail and choose a local installer, and pay a lot more. All this is infuriating as a Tesla shareholder and supporter.

Service is absolutely a stress/failure point with TE, and from what I've read vehicles. I'll be ordering a MY soon, and am cringing at the dysfunction I'm letting myself in for to own it, based on everything I've been reading. Hoping I'm one of the lucky ones who has a good experience.

My guess is that TE was always intended as both a strong long-term business and as short term drain for any surpluss batteries. I think it played a huge role in the 'dangerous' years of 2015-2017 when it wasn't clear how M3 would turn out - or how well it would sell.
Tesla could use Tesla Energy to calm Panasonics nerves about ramping battery production too fast.

It is, in a way, unfortunate for Tesla Energy that Tesla Automotive has been doing such a fantastic job of making very good, safe and effecient cars. It turns out, that there is plenty demand for cars and thus too few batteries to spare for TE.
It turns out, that regardless of how much Tesla Automotive ramps up, people still crave more cars.
And now, acc to EM, Tesla even stripped Tesla Powerwalls for chips for the cars as well in this quarter. Sad for TE but good for Tesla overall.
So yes, the service thing is an issue.
But, Tesla is so focused on great products, that they sell them even with (sometimes) sub-par service. And yes, customers are somtimes annoyed and rightfully so, but not enough (apparently) that it materially effects Tesla enough, though.

Some day TE will have enough battery supply to grow into its intended role: As the worlds largest energy provider. Is that day 1, 5, 10, 20 or 30 years away? Who knows...