Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

When I hear an "analyst" giving a ridiculous price target like $180, what I hear is "our firm hates Tesla. If you also hate Tesla, or your company is competing with Tesla, please use our firm for your finance needs"

 

[CHGolferJim]

Along those lines, consider how the drainage from the roof on a 3/4 mile long building will flow directly into that river and provide water for farmers downstream. Balancing out the usage somewhat.

Wouldn't it be more efficient to capture and passively filter rain water on the roofs for use in the GF? (a la Bermuda)

 

[lafrisbee]

Ok, can we make an internal rule here?
Like, when Tesla is at 1T all this so called interviews and snippets with this people are banned from being posted here? Like really, how long we will give them any attention when we all know how retarded or malicious they are?

I think he was being sarcastic?

 

[kbM3]

With all the hype about the recently announced BEV f-150, I imagine someone at the State accidently classified the F-150 plug-in hybrid as a BEV. It only has a 1.5 kWh battery and 10 mile electric range.

Any F150 getting 10 miles on only 1.5 kWh would actually mean Tesla’s in huge danger!

 

[Mike Smith]

Does anyone here think when the China numbers are released that the market is going to understand why deliveries in China are so low and exports to Europe are so high? I sure don't.

 

[thx1139]

In nature, the most successful pathogens don't kill off the host; that's counter-productive. Instead, they siphon off 2% each day (did you notice that's already today's intraday range?). That's where they make their killing in the long run (ironic that shortzes have a long view, wot?) Yes, I'm looking at the doofus-of-the-day with the $187 price target. Shortzes eat this sugar up.

Tesla is safe and out of reach from hedgies' manipulations now (has been since the successful Model 3 ramp in Shanghai). It's TSLA that they're draining, and that's why volume has dried up.

Hedgies are draining the lifeblood from index funds and other passive retail investors, with the occassional weak long thrown in (read this forum for examples).

When will the breakout occur? It doesn't matter when Options MMs (hedgies) can poof unlimited shares into existance via naked shorting (c.f. Options MMs Exemption, Reg SHO). They just reel the SP back by casually violating the law of supply and demand that is SUPPOSED to set prices in the Market. But hedgies own the Regulator (#SEC), and run the Market. It's more like an Atlantic City Casino with all the tables loaded, and we know how that ended.

The only thing that disrupts the cycle is forcing shortzes to cover (ie: a share dividend). Then we get a brief glimpse at TLSA's true underlying valuation according to the larger Market, before hedgies invariably fund a return to their naked shorting ways (gotta maintain that short profiteering, to the bitter end).

Elon will laugh at this time (when he's on Mars). I bet he's got top scientists working on irony phosphate batteries as we speak.

Cheers!

How would a dividend force this disruption?

 

[woodisgood]

Will AI Day be live-streamed, or is it invite-only?

 

[kbM3]

This has been the trend for TSLA. I waited almost 5 years before I saw gains. Incredible gains! I never expected or even dreamed of what happened last year.

With this stock I don't think anyone can predict when it will move big. The re-pricing happens like a "release of a spring". (Cathie Wood's words.)

No matter what your trading strategy it is best to stay positioned for the next big move and take advantage of the dips.

That unprecedented jump in 2020 was fueled by the super low valuation in 2019 based on the market’s fear of Tesla bankruptcy, the resultant short interest and most importantly the interpretation of 2019 Q1 as weakening demand.

i.e. Don’t expect another 10X gain in a year (barring robo-taxi deployment). I believe the market is mostly pricing in the 1st half of this decade’s growth and we should see roughly 50% annual appreciation as they look out 1 year further and see continued high growth.

 

[Skipdd]

FWIW, this is not the 800 lb gorilla in the room. Not remotely.

I write that as someone who pointed out in here a long time ago Tesla will, eventually, need to spend a LOT more $ than they are on both charging locations (hey look, I was right!) -and- service (both on locations/# of rangers, and significant improvement in quality of communication).


That said- even then, my entire point was "This is an EASILY SOLVABLE ISSUE, just requires spending money.

A thing Tesla has tons of now.

So at whatever point they decide they finally can't put that off any longer, they can easily take care of it.

I'm sure folks who'd prefer to be able to directly speak to a human on the phone about service wish they'd do it sooner--- Likewise the folks who still today get told nobody knows where the car they're waiting for delivery on is (despite the car having GPS and LTE in it).... but it's not going to be any sort of significant slower to growth.

It's just another line item on the financials-- that I surely think investors ought to consider is going to cost the company something... but revenues will continue to grow faster than costs even once they begin scaling service appropriately.

So 800 lb gorilla? Not at all.



4680s not being able to ramp as desired? THAT is an 800 lb gorilla we hope gets resolved rapidly.

Cybertruck manufacturing methods not scaling well enough? THAT is an 800 lb gorilla we hope gets resolved rapidly.

FSD beta continuing to languish in narrow limited release (potentially needing at least a HW4 for everyone to work), making city streets release even further late? THAT is an 800 lb gorilla we hope gets resolved rapidly.


Those are all UNSOLVED problems- so potentially of major material impact if Teslas intended solutions don't resolve well.


But improving service? That's a solved problem- it just needs money spent.

Your post encapsulates a learning for me. I got stuck on customer service and held off buying the stock for awhile. Eventually I realized your points and jumped in a significant way. As some others have noted this thread has been a tutorial of sorts; my investment acumen is a lot stronger than it used to be.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Does anyone here think when the China numbers are released that the market is going to understand why deliveries in China are so low and exports to Europe are so high? I sure don't.

No way. China deliveries the first month of every quarter are like the FUD Super Bowl.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Couldn't Tesla just do a 1 cent dividend or something? Openly saying this is not the start of dividends but a one off to make the market more honest?

Doesn't work. Shortzes have money. It's trivial for them to pay any dividend on their borrowed shares. What they DON'T have is the ability to poof new shares into existance to cover a share dividend. That's what we witnessed during the Aug 2020 runup. Naked shortzes have to go to the Open Market and buy a real share. Limited supply/Large demand means SP goes up.

That's what happened in Jan 2021 as shortzes scrambled to find the ~80M-odd shares they sold naked at the Closing Cross (and After-hrs) on Dec 18, 2020. With the S&P 500 addition, large Index Funds (who are beneficial holders of their shares) WILL NOT accept counterfeits (or fails-to-deliver).

Even worse for Retail investors, their brokers are part of the large group of options market makers who are cheating the system (some don't, it appears most do). So the retail investor doesn't even know that their broker doesn't hold sufficient shares to cover their obligations to their customers.

"Rug" <> "Out-from-Under". About a dozen TMC'rs revealed in Sep 2020 that they were caught short by their borkers (sic).

This is fraud, and white-collar crime. If only their were some Government Agency charged with enforcing the law... But that's the power and the beauty of the well-timed share dividend.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Model Y has reached Paris

https://twitter.com/x/status/1424698493587832834

 

[FireMedic]

A bit off topic; but certainly pertinent to the mission and public sentiment.

IMO the best show on TV currently is Ted Lasso. The most recent episode features one of the most loved characters’ moral battle with an airline/oil company.

The episode illustrates a players’/teams’ internal struggle that transitions to a unified front to combat the trauma caused by a powerful industry.

The episode demonstrates the value of players/managers/owners sacrificing money for the mission.

I only mention it here because im certain that this could subconsciously further our mission by persuading those with the financial means to focus more on the mission/future than immediate gratification.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wouldn't it be more efficient to capture and passively filter rain water on the roofs for use in the GF? (a la Bermuda)

That is very likely the plan: (Jan 20, 2021)

Tesla Giga Texas’ water treatment facilities take form with Canada-based firm's contract

It appears that Tesla’s contractor for Gigafactory Texas’ water treatment facilities has been subtly revealed. In a recent statement, Canadian water treatment solutions provider H2O Innovation Inc announced that it had won an engineering deal on a large capital equipment project for the United...

www.teslarati.com

Cheers!

 

[thx1139]

Does anyone here think when the China numbers are released that the market is going to understand why deliveries in China are so low and exports to Europe are so high? I sure don't.

Nope.

 

[Drezil]

Does anyone here think when the China numbers are released that the market is going to understand why deliveries in China are so low and exports to Europe are so high? I sure don't.

Any reason is good enough for MM to force a "Turnaround Tuesday" after a green monday

 

[Singuy]

Does anyone here think when the China numbers are released that the market is going to understand why deliveries in China are so low and exports to Europe are so high? I sure don't.

I just need the numbers to be higher than last month's. The market only cares about production right now because of all the part/chip shortages. If China manages to break records, then it means Tesla has navigated through the issue or it doesn't affect Tesla as much. This is the cloud hanging over the stock right now. Delivery numbers in China doesn't matter for the month.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla's BTC holding is up 50% from the impairment value of about $29K per coin.

 

[Beltsbear]

Any F150 getting 10 miles on only 1.5 kWh would actually mean Tesla’s in huge danger!

There is no F150 plug in hybrid anyhow. There is just a hybrid. And it is almost a mild hybrid. The electric motor is around 40 hp only. It's main advantage is that it is almost free (the upgrade, not the truck) with federal rebate and it is a power generator.

 

[Tslynk67]

But how else am I going to fill my thousand share buy at 685 order ?

Sell 10x p700, roll them a couple of weeks, then let them exercise, bingo, 1000 shares at $680 cost-basis!