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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
...what's your theory on why this is happening?
Edit: Apologies if this has already been covered before, I don't read every post on this forum lol
Don't you think, as an investor, that it's important to know that there are analysts on TV right now setting a PT 75% below the current price? I think we all agree that Gordon Johnson is a paid-off shill, but this Bernstein guy, yes he's bearish on the stock, but some probably think he's right and act on it - as investors this is all part of the puzzleOk, can we make an internal rule here?
Like, when Tesla is at 1T all this so called interviews and snippets with this people are banned from being posted here? Like really, how long we will give them any attention when we all know how retarded or malicious they are?
As for today's price movements, I see four possible scenarios:
- $TSLA following sector
- sector following $TSLA
- $TSLA trying to climb and MM's manipulating it to look like it's following sector
- MM's manipulating every eV stock the same
I think the first two are the most plausible...
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Well Tesla is the most heavily options traded stock out there so it’s easy to why it tracks to max pain week in and week out. Now as to why most of Wall St is sitting on the sidelines and not buying right now after Tesla continually smashes expectations is a mystery. Volume continues to be very low historically for what Tesla has seen from volume in the past. And it’s dramatically lower than it was back in Q1. No one solid answer or theory.
As Tesla’s P/E continues to dramatically drop though, they’ll be practically forced to start buying in. It’s highly unusual to see a stock with such high forecasted growth see its multiple drop this much when it’s just at the beginning of its growth phase
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One thing I think has been missed in this conversation is the oft-discussed vertical integration that Tesla has and how that advantage plays out in the energy markets. In this case, Tesla's unique position of sitting at the crossroads of both demand and supply as well as the grid services mentioned previously will give them a huge edge that no other company will be able to match.
1. Data advantage: Tesla knows how much solar power is producing. They know how many MWh are available to the grid in powerwalls and their mega packs. They know how many cars are currently heading for superchargers and how many are currently charging. They can use this data to predict future market rates better than other companies.
2. Vertical integration: Most of the other companies are battery suppliers, or grid services providers, or partnering with utilities. None that I know of (correct me if I'm wrong here) are working to take part in the entire value chain from mine to grid storage/services. This allows for Tesla to create the best ROI solutions from the design up, not only with chemistries optimized for grid storage and high cycle life, but without losing margin to third-party suppliers. They can design with the end in full view and take profit from the full value chain.
3. Demand flexibility. All other competitors will be limited in their ability to offset demand by the amount of storage available in batteries specifically tied to the grid. Only Tesla will have a millions-large fleet of vehicles at their disposal for demand curtailing. Currently, there is no mechanism for this, but it should be a trivial software upgrade to allow users to select from a menu of charge pricing. For example, one could select only to charge during the least expensive times, or only charge to a certain state of charge at more expensive rates. Tesla would have a unique advantage here, not only in being able to manipulate the demand side of the equation, but also on the data side, they'd know a great deal about how elastic that demand actually is. This additional positive feedback loop will allow for better price prediction capability than the competition.
If they can manipulate the market, and there is upwards pressure, why don't they manipulate it up and profit from the pressure rather than resist it? That doesn't make sense to me.
My theory is they’ve been trying to devalue calls and leaps as much as possible in an effort to buy them up before they start buying stock
With no specific knowledge of the water usage situation and regulation of and surrounding Giga Berlin and Giga Texas [[I have zero knowledge of how and where the waste/treated water will be released], I would guess more water usage, even with the same output, could also mean a smart/optimized design other than crappy design (not saying it couldn't be), as there seems abundant water available at Giga Texas, in fact, it seems there're too much water/uneven water distribution (snow & storms) delaying Giga Texas progress many times just by watching Jeff Roberts's videos. So we'll just wait and see before coming to a "conclusion".
Texas always swings between no water and inland sea. This isn't likely to change.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
In nature, the most successful pathogens don't kill off the host; that's counter-productive. Instead, they siphon off 2% each day (did you notice that's already today's intraday range?). That's where they make their killing in the long run (ironic that shortzes have a long view, wot?) Yes, I'm looking at the doofus-of-the-day with the $187 price target. Shortzes eat this sugar up.
Tesla is safe and out of reach from hedgies' manipulations now (has been since the successful Model 3 ramp in Shanghai). It's TSLA that they're draining, and that's why volume has dried up.
Hedgies are draining the lifeblood from index funds and other passive retail investors, with the occassional weak long thrown in (read this forum for examples).
When will the breakout occur? Timing doesn't matter when Options MMs (hedgies) can poof unlimited shares into existance via naked shorting (they make MOAR $$ when the SP goes up, because they have unlimited market power to short it back down, even if it takes months).
They casually reel in the SP by violating the law of supply and demand that is SUPPOSED to set prices in the Market. But hedgies own the Regulator (#SEC), and they run the Market. It's more like an Atlantic City Casino with all the tables loaded, and we know how that ended.
The only thing that disrupts the cycle is forcing shortzes to cover (ie: a share dividend). Then we get a brief glimpse at TLSA's true underlying valuation according to the larger Market, before hedgies invariably fund a return to their naked shorting ways (gotta maintain that short profiteering, to the bitter end).
Elon will laugh at this time (when he's on Mars). I bet he's got top scientists working on irony phosphate batteries as we speak.
Cheers!
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It would be obvious that replacing a swamp-like area with a mass factory and surrounding infrastructure AND doing nothing about stormwater management would impact hydrological functions negatively. But Tesla is apparently NOT doing nothing in that regard.
The "conclusion" of hurting farmers and towns downstream so far is not supported by any concrete evidence. Not saying it couldn't be, but Tesla is apparently doing something to mitigate that, and Elon also stated that the factory would be an "ecological paradise" and it could mean more environmentally beneficial measurements than we outsiders know.
Tesla is up about 10% since earnings. I'd argue it should be more based on what was presented, but that is up pretty significantly. EPS revisions are still happening and putting positive pressure on the stock. The big question with Tesla is how much growth is still out there? I think when we look at number around here and being as intune to production plans, we see the planned growth. Even the most basic analysts should see 50-60%. The demand growth is something analysts still (wrongly IMO) question. Going off the idea that Auto market share is only set to have a select EV% and ICE% is a fundamental wrong. I still think 22 EPS is $3-4 low from nearly every major analyst.
Another part of this is on Tesla. They simply refuse to guide beyond 50% growth per year. Even though they should hit 50% in early to mid November and 75-80% is in the realm of possibility. In the last two quarters, they had clear chances to revise that forecast up which would cause significant 2021 valuation changes that would have immediate impacts on the stock. They didn't. Instead they continued to focus on supply chain and chip shortages which bring in doubt on how much they can actually grow even with the clear market for the vehicles... and despite it looking like the shortages will ease. Combine that with further delays in Berlin and Austin being more Q4 than Q3, volume questions there there. If Tesla simply guided on this last earnings call that 850k for 2021 and 1.5m in 2022, the stock shoots up.
I think the Q3 earnings will end up nearly matching a lot of the full year earnings currently still out there, and Tesla will have to address the elephant in the room of ~850k deliveries in 2021 and at least 1.3m in 2022.
Another part of this is on Tesla. They simply refuse to guide beyond 50% growth per year. Even though they should hit 50% in early to mid November and 75-80% is in the realm of possibility. In the last two quarters, they had clear chances to revise that forecast up which would cause significant 2021 valuation changes that would have immediate impacts on the stock. They didn't. Instead they continued to focus on supply chain and chip shortages which bring in doubt on how much they can actually grow even with the clear market for the vehicles... and despite it looking like the shortages will ease. Combine that with further delays in Berlin and Austin being more Q4 than Q3, volume questions there there. If Tesla simply guided on this last earnings call that 850k for 2021 and 1.5m in 2022, the stock shoots up.
I think the Q3 earnings will end up nearly matching a lot of the full year earnings currently still out there, and Tesla will have to address the elephant in the room of ~850k deliveries in 2021 and at least 1.3m in 2022.
Doesn't just save lives, they should really talk about DALY's (i.e. Disability-adjusted life years) IMO.
e.g. Childhood Air Pollution Exposure Linked to Poor Mental Health at Age 18
petit_bateau
Active Member
The https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2020-tesla-impact-report.pdf confirms the previously stated target fof 20m cars/yr by 2030, which is a 40x growth from 0.5m in 2020. It also gives a target of 1500 GWh of storage in 2030, up from 3 GWh in 2020, so a 500x growth. I don't think that has been stated before. Also, at those levels it would be approx 1500 GWh of cell usage at an average of 75 kWh/car. That gives good insight that I don't think we have had quite so explicitly before.
To put that in context there are approx 25m dwellings in the UK, so at that production rate each UK dwelling (i.e. family) could be provided with 75 kWh of storage in one year of deployment. That is approximately sufficient storage to allow every UK dwelling to bridge the intermittency gaps during the peak energy use in winter darkness, when winds can go calm for a week or (at most, very infrequently) two weeks and of course there is no solar to speak of. I've done more sophisticated modelling in the past and concluded that one can reach an acceptable level of risk at about 50 GWh of storage (from memory) with a fully decarbonised grid. The UK is approx 2.5% of global GDP and a similar fraction of global energy use (very approximately) so one needs about 15-45 years of storage production to fully convert the world to 100% renewables, depending on the amount of intermittency risk one is willing to assume. This is of course if there were no further increases in storage production rate, and if Tesla were the only manufacturer, and of course assuming no demand side response.
To put that in context there are approx 25m dwellings in the UK, so at that production rate each UK dwelling (i.e. family) could be provided with 75 kWh of storage in one year of deployment. That is approximately sufficient storage to allow every UK dwelling to bridge the intermittency gaps during the peak energy use in winter darkness, when winds can go calm for a week or (at most, very infrequently) two weeks and of course there is no solar to speak of. I've done more sophisticated modelling in the past and concluded that one can reach an acceptable level of risk at about 50 GWh of storage (from memory) with a fully decarbonised grid. The UK is approx 2.5% of global GDP and a similar fraction of global energy use (very approximately) so one needs about 15-45 years of storage production to fully convert the world to 100% renewables, depending on the amount of intermittency risk one is willing to assume. This is of course if there were no further increases in storage production rate, and if Tesla were the only manufacturer, and of course assuming no demand side response.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Couldn't Tesla just do a 1 cent dividend or something? Openly saying this is not the start of dividends but a one off to make the market more honest?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Theres obviously no overt coordination, but it almost feels like the big boys told the MM's they're going on vacation in May and they should just make sure they can buy in below $800 when they get back in September.
There's a lot of players, and technically it's "every gal for herself", but it's funny we seem to be operating in a system that let's big money take a risk free vacation. Capitalism is a delightful tool, but a modicum of regulation wouldn't kill us.
Sorry. I was just sitting here thinking how laughable it is we're $20 below the pre-1Q P&D, there's been nothing but phenomenal internal AND macro news.....yet they've somehow got us thinking $720 is a rational SP. Hilarious!
We're so easily manipulated. Even the megabulls.
There's a lot of players, and technically it's "every gal for herself", but it's funny we seem to be operating in a system that let's big money take a risk free vacation. Capitalism is a delightful tool, but a modicum of regulation wouldn't kill us.
Sorry. I was just sitting here thinking how laughable it is we're $20 below the pre-1Q P&D, there's been nothing but phenomenal internal AND macro news.....yet they've somehow got us thinking $720 is a rational SP. Hilarious!
We're so easily manipulated. Even the megabulls.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Or sell puts on a friday and rebuy em Monday.
Or both.
Don't let the MMs have all the fun.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Indeed, as CO2 ppm in the atmosphere continues to rise, inland seas are very likely to return:
So we can all party like it's 90 Millon BC... but think of the JOBS! Lifeguards and swim instructors will rule the fossil fools.
:/
That's a pretty standard macro situation in the market no? We often hear something like "sell in May and go away".
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