Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Too expensive but we'll go ahead and up our price target 60%

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He somehow chose to ignore Tesla's current margins and operating margin being well beyond traditional auto makers even at a 200k quarterly sales rate.......this guy's gonna look like a complete idiot and lose all credibility by Q4 earnings.....probably as early as Q3 earnings.

He always intentionally doesn't give out hard numbers to back up his valuation........amazing how easy it is to be an analysts nowadays. Pretty sure I could be in the Top 10 compared to this guy

 

[M|S|M MYP]

He somehow choose to ignore Tesla's current margins and operating margin being well beyond traditional auto makers even at a 200k quarterly sales rate.......this guy's gonna look like a complete idiot by Q4 earnings.....probably as early as Q3 earnings.

He's been a complete idiot ever since he started covering $TSLA

 

[NicoV]

Too expensive but we'll go ahead and up our price target 60%

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What a joke. As if modelling until 2050 will give you a more accurate assessment. It only adds more uncertainty.

Edit: BTW, Isn’t Wall Street just interested in the next quarterly results? Why then having a 40 year view?

 

[Stormy24]

What a joke. As if modelling until 2050 will give you a more accurate assessment. It only adds more uncertainty.

That’s 8.50pm not the year….

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427645307286851600

Details added: $875 12-month-target:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427649534415474692

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Details added: $875 12-month-target:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427649534415474692

Their EPS estimates for 2022 and 2023 are hilariously off......They're underestimating by a factor 3.

Which makes their 12 month PT severely low.

Obviously take this advice with your own risk tolerance because unexpected things can and do happen. But when you see blatant FUD like this combined with estimates by even the Bull analysts that severely under estimate earnings.....it's a clear sign to jump into far out LEAPS. We're clearly getting into 2019 levels of complete disconnect between the stock and estimates put out by analysts with reality from the numbers we crunch here on this forum.

 

[ChefBoyardee]

We're in a range that TSLA bounces out of really quickly. I don't expect it to stay here long - hanging on to my 680/670 puts for dear life

 

[mltv]

30 @ 660.775

 

[StealthP3D]

This article published today gives more color on exactly this.

This administration, or rather, people installed at the top seem to have a warped set of priorities when it comes to safety. While the article itself is somewhat slanted, it makes it clear that these new people need to go through a round of education on why, statistically, this is by far the best approach.

If they're just in the pocket of the unions, or just instinctively hate billionaires for the sake of it, I think it's gonna be a tougher slog.

I lean towards this being an old Detroit and their unions' handiwork rather than big oil FWIW.

Tesla Probe Ushers In Get-Tough Era at U.S. Auto-Safety Watchdog: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

I hear you. There is a legitimate debate between those who believe these technologies should be regulated more by government (not be made available until proven safe beyond reasonable doubt) and those who believe the government should only step in if the data shows people are being harmed at an elevated rate. The logical, first-principles way to decide which is correct is to look at the data because the trend is for these systems to add increasing amounts of safety. They are already saving thousands of lives every year.

The first option makes no sense. Because now we have enough cars on the road with advanced driver assistance technologies that we can see they are increasing the safety and, without that, it's impossible to get the data that shows they are more safe. These agencies should closely watch the data as it comes in and only act if they see a problem. But some people still sincerely believe the other method should be used even though it will cause more deaths and not allow for the technology to rapidly improve.

The way we can tell this recent investigation is a witch-hunt is that many of the listed crashes under investigation involve drivers who were found to be drunk and in which the advanced driver assistance functions were not activated. Drunks crash into things on the side of the road all the time. A valid investigation would not waste time investing incidents in which the driver was drunk and the driver aids were turned off. But someone who believed it was their mission to get these advanced driver's assistance aids off the road until they had been proven to work reliably might use such crashes to tarnish the technology, even if it was not activated.

The way industry (like auto and oil) influence these things is to support the hiring of people that are on the side of the fence that best supports their narrow goals. It doesn't mean the government officials themselves are corrupt or on the take. But the manner in which they came to power could very well be facilitated by various corporate types who don't care about safety, they care about their agenda. And they may get their people into power in an agency even though that person would never be judged to be the best person for the job without the help of these powerful corporate interests pulling strings. That's corruption in the hiring/appointment process and it can totally change the mission of an entire federal agency.

We don't get better government when industry corrupts the process. In time we will known where the balance of power lies in these agencies by how long it takes the witch hunt to end. Hopefully sooner rather than later because real human lives are on the line if the development of these technologies is slowed. A good resolution would be for government to prohibit Tesla from using the term "Full Self Driving" or FSD to refer to anything on the cars today (until FSD was actually developed to the state that drivers did not need to monitor it). I wouldn't have a problem with that. But the current investigation does not appear to be headed in that direction.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Pretty hilarious to watch these clowns set price targets and "analysis" purely to fit their existing bets in either direction. Even more hilarious to see people actually pay attention.

IV must still be high because calls of all expirations aren't nearly as cheap as you'd think. Very tempted to pounce on reasonably priced $700c's for next Friday expiration if they should appear this afternoon, though it might be more logical to buy Oct 15 expiration. That way I get the 3Q P&D report plus the run up from all the big banks building their post-Hamptons positions.

 

[Zero CO2]

Hi Y'all just back from a 2.5 week trip to West Virginia Coal country and Blue Ridge Parkway in NC ... some observations

1) I took my Toyota 4 Runner as the locations i was going required 4WD high clearance (I want/need my CT )

2) once i got out of PA not many Tesla's on the mountain highways ...

3) I have never really felt range anxiety in NY/NJ area with my model S even in the Catskill Mountains ; however, the mountains of WV, NC, TN, VA would have induced quite a bit of range anxiety ...the supercharger network might work for transit routes in these mountains ; however, day trips to hikes and local travel on the Blue Ridge Parkway and New River Gorge would not work for me , i am not sure i would even have been fully comfortable in a new Model S with 400 miles range
4) Some of the WV state parks had Tesla destination chargers , which was quite surprising for Coal country ....

my key takeaways:

1) Even if clearance was not an issue ... I would have regretted taking my Model S on this trip , it just does not have enough range for a sparse charging network as in Blue Ridge Mountains , Black Mountains and New River Gorge.

2) I wonder if CT would have made this trip any different ... not sure as i would have had to drive significant distances out of my trip plan to reach superchargers /etc. we need a lot more supercharges before a Tesla can handle a trip like this IMO ... there would be too much wasted time at and reaching superchargers.

3) I am not convinced i can get rid of my ICE vehicle yet ... which is a shame

4) I Did see a model Y at grandfather mountain in NC ... and it was surrounded by onlookers etc.... the owner was yelling at here friends in an ICE vehicle " where did you take me" ....as they yucked it up.... it turned out there was an EV charger at the visitor center ...

anyway what did I miss? looks like i am back in time for some discounted shares and the FUD machine is back in full force

 

[StealthP3D]

This is my assumption as well. Until there are penalties for such behavior they have to intermittently acquiesce to the insanity and do an investigation.

Actually, they don't have to acquiesce to insanity. In fact, government agencies are supposed to resist that and only open an investigation when the actual evidence warrants an investigation. Did you know that thousands of people have reported the "Chem trail" problem to the EPA? You do know about the evils of chem trails, don't you?

How many investigations do you think the EPA has done to determine the extent of the "chem trail" problem?

 

[ZachF]

Am I being tinfoily in noting the time proximity between Tesla getting snubbed at Biden's EV symposium, Elon calling them out on it, and an NHTSA investigation coming shortly after?

 

[StealthP3D]

Hi Y'all just back from a 2.5 week trip to West Virginia Coal country and Blue Ridge Parkway in NC ... some observations

All good reasons reasons why Tesla is continuing to expand their Supercharger network into more and more rural locations. They are not stopping.

As recently as 2019 Tesla US sales were under 200K. 2020 sales were under 300K. It made no sense to support every rural nook and cranny with sales like that (Tesla uses data to build-out the network where it will add the most functionality). US Tesla sales are set to explode in 2022 and 2023 with the completion of the two newest Gigafactories and you will see the Supercharger Network expand in kind.

Unfortunately, the US is a real laggard in the global transition to EV's. But, hang on to your hats, we are getting ready to enter the steep part of the "S" curve!

 

[StealthP3D]

Am I being tinfoily in noting the time proximity between Tesla getting snubbed at Biden's EV symposium, Elon calling them out on it, and an NHTSA investigation coming shortly after?

I think it's related but time will tell.

 

[Paracelsus]

Am I being tinfoily in noting the time proximity between Tesla getting snubbed at Biden's EV symposium, Elon calling them out on it, and an NHTSA investigation to help create a buying opportunity for whales just before AI Day below the 2-year trend line coming shortly after?

FTFY above - and fully agree with the rest of it. But then I am from Idaho. We are issued a tinfoil hat with our driver's license here.

 

[Nocturnal]

Added another Nov 19 $660 and a bunch of August 27 $715s. Let's play a game MMs.

 

[canoemore]

Well, they convinced me to convert a few shares to a $1000 Mar 23 LEAP. I promised myself to wait until it fell to 650, but impatience won.

 

[ZeApelido]

however, the mountains of WV, NC, TN, VA would have induced quite a bit of range anxiety

Having watched Deliverance, those mountains also give me anxiety.

 

[phantasms]

A glorious day for the longs!