Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

That inventory showing 60+ Plaid yesterday?

Down to 18 now.

United States Tesla All inventory

This is the All inventory for cars in United States. The inventory is taken from Tesla directly and refreshed every few minutes, we also explicitly differentiate between New and Demo cars both of which Tesla list as New. In many countries we also gather used cars from various sources. We allow...

tesla-info.com

 

[22522]

For extra credit add the tendons, the viewing camera, the encoders/markings on the shafts/rims/tendons, and the redundancy and fail-safe's and mechanical fuses .......

Thank you for the list. This is an exercise to parrot Elon and Sandy…
1) also this is to help me become better at SolidWorks so I’ll call and ask on the tendons, to see if it can constrain the model to make is move in a kinematically correct way with flexible parts.
2) we were going to look at the tendons where they cross the wrist. Been haunted by nightmares of dust defeating the camera. If it is encapsulated in a clear (radiation tolerant clear) gorilla glass box with grooves in it for each tendon, the tendons themselves will perpetually clean the glass. So I do need to model the hermetically sealed optical wrist. And as a hat tip to Sandy (and others) if part of the box needs to be a lens it will be.
4) may need color to get all encoding at the wrist box.
5) the little disc motors are their own fail safes. If we can push any fuses to the electrical side, self resetting is easier for the big ones. The power electronics will isolate these from low impedance battery currents, add a transformer if needed. Choose a motor type that intrinsically does that. Blown fuses on Mars would be bad news. No fuses unless self resetting.
5) the multiple fingers are redundant with all these independent motors. Too many.
The wrist camera needs some redundancy. Maybe two in that box.

Will ask about the tendons and kinematic motion support. Thanks again for thorough.

 

[Unpilot]

Before market open, a cool tidbit about where the world is heading.

World's first crewless, zero emissions cargo ship will set sail in Norway | CNN

The Yara Birkeland is what its builders call the world's first zero-emission, autonomous cargo ship.

www.cnn.com

 

[Singuy]

Uh, $TSM looks fine to me? I don't see any smoking craters here...

That's like pulling up teslas one year chart and say "recent China fud and treasury yield did nothing to Tslas stock because it's still green??"

Tsm was hitting 107 from 119 during pretty good macros the last two weeks.

 

[JustMe]

Man you guys just can’t resist the politics bait

 

[Thekiwi]

That's like pulling up teslas one year chart and say "recent China fud and treasury yield did nothing to Tslas stock because it's still green??"

Tsm was hitting 107 from 119 during pretty good macros the last two weeks.

TSM dipped to the same level a couple of times in March and May. correlation ≠ causation

 

[Singuy]

TSM dipped to the same level a couple of times in March and May. correlation ≠ causation

You mean when macros took a dump for all tech stocks?

It's not easy to find absolute causation for any short term movements and half the people here considers every Tesla dip to be manipulation by MM which is a much weaker causation case than Tsm's recent dip to March Lows when qqq is up way beyond March. So everything is best guess to why a stock goes down or goes up.

 

[22522]

WRT the robot being humanoid...

The reason the TeslaBot is a 5'8" humanoid is because our hundreds of trillions worth of existing infrastructure and tools is designed for a humanoid form factor of roughly that size.

That is one reason. But the lady from Star Trek The Cage (pilot) might be able to to do that.

People need to want to be around it. Tesla does well because Teslas look great. Appearance matters.

 

[nativewolf]

Not true. Maybe back in the day it was meaningless but now Afghanistan is mineral rich country. This is why China is looking to work with the Taliban to open up mining in the country. There are also people in that country that want the freedom of democracy but have to deal with Taliban rule. For US, it isn't a good situation but to say it has no impact? With the dawn of EVs, I'd beg to say Afghanistan will have a huge impact in the semiconductor / ev raw material supply. Maybe not immediate but most definitely the future.

"An internal U.S Department of Defense memo in 2010 reportedly described Afghanistan as "the Saudi Arabia of lithium," meaning it could be as crucial for global supply of the battery metal as the Middle Eastern country is for crude oil."

Source: Afghanistan mineral reserves

Which is all a big nothing burger. The mineral resources have been known for 80 years now.

 

[nativewolf]

That is one reason. But the lady from Star Trek The Cage (pilot) might be able to to do that.

People need to want to be around it. Tesla does well because Teslas look great. Appearance matters.

It's been a week could we maybe skip all the bot talk and put that into its own thread. It's 10-20 years away at best. At best. Has literally no impact on any rational economic discussion of Tesla.

Interesting topics: Can Tesla scale Berlin, will Tesla be able to sell cars competitively in China? Will Chinese EVs flood US as they are EU? How is the battery line scaling? Where is the battery capacity coming from next year? What will Tesla do with its cash?- this is a huge question and the one thing Tesla has now is a CFO that is not an idiot so he's got to be staring at some projections seeing cash just swell come 2022. What's the point?

People praise Apple for economic performance but they have not found anything to do with cash and that's troubling.

 

[jeewee3000]

It's been a week could we maybe skip all the bot talk and put that into its own thread. It's 10-20 years away at best. At best. Has literally no impact on any rational economic discussion of Tesla.

Interesting topics: Can Tesla scale Berlin, will Tesla be able to sell cars competitively in China? Will Chinese EVs flood US as they are EU? How is the battery line scaling? Where is the battery capacity coming from next year? What will Tesla do with its cash?- this is a huge question and the one thing Tesla has now is a CFO that is not an idiot so he's got to be staring at some projections seeing cash just swell come 2022. What's the point?

People praise Apple for economic performance but they have not found anything to do with cash and that's troubling.

We are due some announcements on the locations of the next two/three Gigafactories. (I'm not a fan of the new term "Terafactory")

By the time new land is bought and flattened, Tesla will have gained experience in Berlin/Austin about the new battery cell production and body castings. Perfect timing to advance the Alien Dreadnought.

Or the Model 2 (smaller, lower cost, designed in China EV) is announced and that will be produced in Shanghai (at first) and later India or somewhere along those lines. Current problem with entering the Indian car market is the lower ASP of local vehicles. A $25k Tesla would have way more demand over there than a $35k/$40k Model 3/Y SR.

Rest of the cash: buying the Tesla vehicles at the end of a leasing contract for future deployment as robotaxis.

And don't forget Tesla can always buy some chip manufacturing companies to help mass produce their DOJO hardware / FSD hardware 4 computers.

The possbilities are endless. It's going to be a great ride. HODL.

 

[22522]

For extra credit add the tendons, the viewing camera, the encoders/markings on the shafts/rims/tendons, and the redundancy and fail-safe's and mechanical fuses .......

Rules about the cost and performance limitation of linear motors might assume the travel of a traditional motor is enough to spool the rope. If you only do a fraction of a revolution some of the advantages of traditional motor geometry might go away. If you could just throw 20 hypodermic needles in the forearm, with needles replaced by tendons and anchor them near the elbow, that would not preclude a humanoid skeleton. The number of decisions would be drastically reduced and the product would exist sooner because of this.

Humanoid trace with linear motors seems fastest and cleanest, just don't know the fundamental cost difference of this approach. Vertically integrated Tesla might be able to make it affordable.

Somehow I think the motor cost might be less important than motor weight, if going to Mars.

Motors that spool with differential pulley sizes and position feedback at the wrist/joint so spooled layers don't matter should be the lightest and the cheapest.

Would rather just throw 20 sticks in the forearm.

Does anyone know how heavy a linear motor thigh/quad would be?

This is a discussion about estimating Tesla timeline for humanoid robot.

The weight of a linear motor thigh is important. Does anyone here know that?

 

[jeewee3000]

If it is 10 years away, I agree.

If it is 9 months away, we probably want to know. It is looking like about a year to me October 2022.

Please block if not interested. I think I've blocked like 35 people, if they teach pejorative views of others etc. If I do say something of interest someone you have not blocked will comment. The new structure works great for that.

The Tesla bot discussion has become so technical (and hypothetical, we're basically discussing a powerpoint presentation) that it does belong in its own thread.

One of the many to take it to:

Blog - Tesla Bot Prototype Coming in 2022

Tesla announced Thursday at its “AI Day” that it will build a “Tesla Bot” as soon as 2022. Chief Executive Elon Musk said the human-like robot will be able to complete tasks that are “boring, dangerous, repetitive jobs that people don’t want to do.” A Tesla Bot was on display at the event, but...

teslamotorsclub.com

And no, I don't want to block you since you make good points and I want to read your thoughts on other subjects. But the Tesla bot discussion is clogging up the main thread disproportionately IMO and there is very little discussion of $$ such as "what will it cost", "when will it generate revenue", "what's the ROI potential?" etc.

Apologies to the mods if I'm overstepping my boundaries here.

 

[Mengy]

The Tesla bot discussion has become so technical (and hypothetical, we're basically discussing a powerpoint presentation) that it does belong in its own thread.

One of the many to take it to:

Blog - Tesla Bot Prototype Coming in 2022

Tesla announced Thursday at its “AI Day” that it will build a “Tesla Bot” as soon as 2022. Chief Executive Elon Musk said the human-like robot will be able to complete tasks that are “boring, dangerous, repetitive jobs that people don’t want to do.” A Tesla Bot was on display at the event, but...

teslamotorsclub.com

This thread is also focused on the bot:

Tesla humanoid robot

Discussed here: ~20% chance that Elon announces development earlier than 2026? They would be useful on Mars...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla's "Autobidder" is scaring Germany’s utility providers: report

Germany’s players in the utility sector are starting to feel quite nervous about Tesla’s expansion into the country’s energy market. This is especially true when it comes to the deployment of Autobidder, which could very well make Tesla a serious utility provider. In a statement to news outlet...

www.teslarati.com

 

[charlesgres]

The Tesla bot discussion has become so technical (and hypothetical, we're basically discussing a powerpoint presentation) that it does belong in its own thread.

One of the many to take it to:

Blog - Tesla Bot Prototype Coming in 2022

Tesla announced Thursday at its “AI Day” that it will build a “Tesla Bot” as soon as 2022. Chief Executive Elon Musk said the human-like robot will be able to complete tasks that are “boring, dangerous, repetitive jobs that people don’t want to do.” A Tesla Bot was on display at the event, but...

teslamotorsclub.com

And no, I don't want to block you since you make good points and I want to read your thoughts on other subjects. But the Tesla bot discussion is clogging up the main thread disproportionately IMO and there is very little discussion of $$ such as "what will it cost", "when will it generate revenue", "what's the ROI potential?" etc.

Apologies to the mods if I'm overstepping my boundaries here.

It's being discussed because it is new.. If realization is indeed 10 years away the discussion will thin out, and regain strength when it's becoming actual and relevant for this thread again.. So, not in favor of separate thread.. Already have too few hours in a day to read this thread end-to-end, let alone try to skim others..

 

[JRP3]

"An internal U.S Department of Defense memo in 2010 reportedly described Afghanistan as "the Saudi Arabia of lithium," meaning it could be as crucial for global supply of the battery metal as the Middle Eastern country is for crude oil."

I wouldn't trust a DOD memo coming up with reasons to stay in Afghanistan. There is plenty of undeveloped lithium in the world in far friendlier places, like the US for example.

 

[JRP3]

It's being discussed because it is new..

It's also not even going to be a prototype until next year, or 2 years given Elon time.

 

[jeewee3000]

It's being discussed because it is new.. If realization is indeed 10 years away the discussion will thin out, and regain strength when it's becoming actual and relevant for this thread again.. So, not in favor of separate thread.. Already have too few hours in a day to read this thread end-to-end, let alone try to skim others..

Polite disagree. The reason it takes hours to keep up with this thread is because some want to keep all discussion threads in this very thread. By having specialized threads (for non pressing matters) the discussion is deeper and it is easier to go read up on the threads that interest you specifically.

The main thread is primarily focused on short term issues that can move or have moved the stock. I'll keep quiet about this now, not to further clog up the thread (and since this is a discussion we've had many times over the years).

 

[FS_FRA]

Tesla's "Autobidder" is scaring Germany’s utility providers: report

Germany’s players in the utility sector are starting to feel quite nervous about Tesla’s expansion into the country’s energy market. This is especially true when it comes to the deployment of Autobidder, which could very well make Tesla a serious utility provider. In a statement to news outlet...

www.teslarati.com

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