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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Our very own Frank Peelen @FrankSG responds to Mayur Thaker’s take on Tesla’ FCF “problem”…

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Leases currently account for ~7% of deliveries. Once robotaxi network is active I suspect that number to drop and Tesla will additionally allocate a percentage of production directly into a Tesla-owned robotaxi fleet. It'll be interesting to see what that percentage ends up being. Bottom line: buy Tesla, buy TSLA.
 
Is it not surprising that the markets are still pushing up with all of the unrest in Afghanistan? The plunging of Biden's approval ratings. Americans stuck over there. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that $TSLA is back over $700 and believe it should be much higher. However I'm surprised at the strength given the current issues.
Why do you think Afghanistan is that important? Delta COVID is far more important than Afghanistan

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Is it not surprising that the markets are still pushing up with all of the unrest in Afghanistan? The plunging of Biden's approval ratings. Americans stuck over there. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that $TSLA is back over $700 and believe it should be much higher. However I'm surprised at the strength given the current issues.
Afghanistan is a meaningless piece of land in central Asia which has been the "graveyard of empires" since the days of Alexander the Great. America isn't the least bit special in this regard. Since the Macedonians, the people of that place have successfully repelled the Mongols, the Persians, the Seleucids, the Turks, the Indians, the British, and the Soviets over the millennia. America could have easily avoided 20 years and $2.2 trillion by just picking up a history book but as we all know George W. Bush didn't really pay attention in school.

What does Afghanistan have to do with the markets of Western nations? Literally nothing. That's why the markets have no reaction to the events in Afghanistan.
 
Afghanistan is a meaningless piece of land in central Asia which has been the "graveyard of empires" since the days of Alexander the Great. America isn't the least bit special in this regard. Since the Macedonians, the people of that place have successfully repelled the Mongols, the Persians, the Seleucids, the Turks, the Indians, the British, and the Soviets over the millennia. America could have easily avoided 20 years and $2.2 trillion by just picking up a history book but as we all know George W. Bush didn't really pay attention in school.

What does Afghanistan have to do with the markets of Western nations? Literally nothing. That's why the markets have no reaction to the events in Afghanistan.
I believe the market does have some reactions to how the U.S is handling Afghanistan vs whatever happens to the country itself. TSMC stock did crater probably due to fears that the U.S maybe couldn't afford or is softer on securing their interest through the use of military which may opens up opportunities for China to take over Taiwan. Never gonna happen but you know markets doing market things.
 
I believe the market does have some reactions to how the U.S is handling Afghanistan vs whatever happens to the country itself. TSMC stock did crater probably due to fears that the U.S maybe couldn't afford or is softer on securing their interest through the use of military which may opens up opportunities for China to take over Taiwan. Never gonna happen but you know markets doing market things.
Uh, $TSM looks fine to me? I don't see any smoking craters here...
 

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Seems like good advice. I was thinking about systematic errors that I make today. One is that I favor ergonomics over aesthetics. So I see the robot and historic Tesla/Musk strategies as a way to fix that.

Think "Oh no! Star Trek: The Cage."

Elon made Teslas beautiful with some help.
That means this robot needs to be humanoid, even if it is hard. It does not need to be strong, but it cannot be disfigured.

It only works if market acceptance is huge.

There is a guy named Henry Dreyfuss who had a library wall full of books on humans. His team condensed that wall of books into something called HumanScale.

HumanScale should be the rest of the Tesla Robot specification. They showed the strength of a fit 70 year old - to make it not scary.

The other part of the spec is humanoid - to make it not scary.

Humanoid means HumanScale.
View attachment 701054View attachment 701055View attachment 701056

This is meant to be a bit of a hat tip to the people who did all this work - even the people who wrote the books on the walls.
ForeArm.PNG


Sometimes it helps if a certified non-expert puts up a straw-man to lose face so that nobody else has to worry about saving face.

This is a HumanScale approximate outer forearm surface modeled and thickened. The vertical pipes are like 20mm mountain bike front axles. Each little disc is an independent motor that drives and independent tendon. The larger stepped discs are to get some leverage on the tendons that come off the the smaller diameter part of the motor. The shaft is displaced toward the palm to operate the main finger tendons.

Add motor width and axles to get as much force on as many tendons as needed.

This forearm has one moving motive part for each independent tendon, so should be minimum part design. The axle can feed wires into the stationary part of each disc motor. This is similar to the idea of letting the motors be the wheels, except unsprung weight is not an issue,

Tesla is good at motors.

This is to accelerate by losing face first.
 
Afghanistan is a meaningless piece of land in central Asia which has been the "graveyard of empires" since the days of Alexander the Great. America isn't the least bit special in this regard. Since the Macedonians, the people of that place have successfully repelled the Mongols, the Persians, the Seleucids, the Turks, the Indians, the British, and the Soviets over the millennia. America could have easily avoided 20 years and $2.2 trillion by just picking up a history book but as we all know George W. Bush didn't really pay attention in school.

What does Afghanistan have to do with the markets of Western nations? Literally nothing. That's why the markets have no reaction to the events in Afghanistan.

The Mongols ruled Afghanistan for over a 100 years. Roughly 1219-1332.

They did by building mountains of skulls. This finally did the trick in intimidating the Afghans into submission. The Afghans weren't the cause of the collapse of the Mongol Empire.

And the Afghans didn't defeat the Soviets alone. They did it with American weapons and dollars.

The Taliban didn't manufacture the weapons they used against the US military either.

 
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Is it not surprising that the markets are still pushing up with all of the unrest in Afghanistan? The plunging of Biden's approval ratings. Americans stuck over there. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that $TSLA is back over $700 and believe it should be much higher. However I'm surprised at the strength given the current issues.
The Afghanistan situation, terrible that it is, has zero impact on the US economy. Likewise Biden slumping in the polls isn’t really an immediate issue either for the economy. CV-Delta is having a much larger impact, and that paradoxically is good news for the stock market as it probably means the fed will continue to take actions to support the economy with cheap money.
 
Nice to see Rob’s doing the same math that I’m doing when it comes to Q3’s potential.

The entire month of October is gonna be fun 😉

Sure, people get that Giga Shanghai is at 1,800+ cars per day now (annualizes to 600K/yr). But what most people DON'T see upcoming in the step in production in Fremont:


It may have slipped past some folks, but Tesla quietly let it be known that, starting Oct 1st (Q4), Tesla will be using CATL LFP packs in N. America. That means SR+ Models 3 will no longer require a supply of NCM 2170s from Giga Nevada, which then become available for 1st production in Texas and/or Berlin. Could be 5K/wk worth, or more.

This new bty supply also paves the way for the release of a N. American Model Y SR+ (depending on how fast they can ramp casting/assembly in Fremont and/or Austin). We are going to be SWIMMING in Models Y. :D

Q3 gonna be fun? Just imagine Q4.

Cheers to the Longs!
 
View attachment 701088

Sometimes it helps if a certified non-expert puts up a straw-man to lose face so that nobody else has to worry about saving face.

This is a HumanScale approximate outer forearm surface modeled and thickened. The vertical pipes are like 20mm mountain bike front axles. Each little disc is an independent motor that drives and independent tendon. The larger stepped discs are to get some leverage on the tendons that come off the the smaller diameter part of the motor. The shaft is displaced toward the palm to operate the main finger tendons.

Add motor width and axles to get as much force on as many tendons as needed.

This forearm has one moving motive part for each independent tendon, so should be minimum part design. The axle can feed wires into the stationary part of each disc motor. This is similar to the idea of letting the motors be the wheels, except unsprung weight is not an issue,

Tesla is good at motors.

This is to accelerate by losing face first.
For extra credit add the tendons, the viewing camera, the encoders/markings on the shafts/rims/tendons, and the redundancy and fail-safe's and mechanical fuses ....... :)
 
TSLA lagging a bit behind macros w. low volume in the early Pre-market:

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Afghanistan is a meaningless piece of land in central Asia which has been the "graveyard of empires" since the days of Alexander the Great. America isn't the least bit special in this regard. Since the Macedonians, the people of that place have successfully repelled the Mongols, the Persians, the Seleucids, the Turks, the Indians, the British, and the Soviets over the millennia. America could have easily avoided 20 years and $2.2 trillion by just picking up a history book but as we all know George W. Bush didn't really pay attention in school.

What does Afghanistan have to do with the markets of Western nations? Literally nothing. That's why the markets have no reaction to the events in Afghanistan.
Not true. Maybe back in the day it was meaningless but now Afghanistan is mineral rich country. This is why China is looking to work with the Taliban to open up mining in the country. There are also people in that country that want the freedom of democracy but have to deal with Taliban rule. For US, it isn't a good situation but to say it has no impact? With the dawn of EVs, I'd beg to say Afghanistan will have a huge impact in the semiconductor / ev raw material supply. Maybe not immediate but most definitely the future.

"An internal U.S Department of Defense memo in 2010 reportedly described Afghanistan as "the Saudi Arabia of lithium," meaning it could be as crucial for global supply of the battery metal as the Middle Eastern country is for crude oil."

Source: Afghanistan mineral reserves
 
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Are you saying Unplugged Performance and Randy Pobst don't know what they are doing when they selected 19" forged racing wheels for the Plaid to win their class at Pikes Peak? The Exhibition Class they entered is anything goes so they could have chosen any wheel/tire combo they wanted. Do you know why race cars that win races never have low profile tires including Formula 1 and NASCAR?

Yeah, because low profile tires don't handle better at high speed. It's for looks.
More correctly, OE size lowest profile tires have a wider tread width (tread width is not section width) than higher profile tires. This gives the potential of higher cornering forces--but only on dry smooth roads (see any of these in your neighbourhood lately?). Now the chances for needing emergency handling is lowest on dry smooth roads. They also react a bit quicker to steering input than tires with a longer sidewall giving the impression of better handling (responsiveness and handling are not exactly the same thing). In addition, the tread compound on lower profile tires is generally stickier than on higher profile tires, so not apples to apples comparison.

When the road surface is rough, the additional contact patch length of the higher profile tires and higher section height allows the tires to better conform to the road irregularities. Which is why for the Pike's Peak hill climb (and for most normal driving situations) higher profile works better. However, lower profile tires add a lot to the tire and wheel manufacturers' profits, so they have been pushing them for the last fifty years.