Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DFibRL8R]

Shanghai starts MY SR deliveries:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1430796200677036036

Wow, I must say, each of my three delivery experiences (2013 S, 2018 3, 2020 Y) were somewhat less exuberant. I didn’t even get floor mats with the Model S!

 

[Opus BC fan]

Over time Tesla "soon" has become "2 weeks"
The BIG TSLA moves have always been later than I expected
TSLA goes parabolic without warning.
TSLA then settles and trades on technicals (because that is how the game is played)

Tesla's innovation and business model clearly demonstrate more value than 2021 trading has shown.
Competition?! The OEM engineers and executives are just waiting to retire.
(the same is true for entrenched aerospace companies and SpaceX)

I'm all in because I think Tesla is our best shot for a future here on Earth.
I'm going plaid in September and I think TSLA will too...

 

[Knightshade]

The new nissan leaf is $27k and up and has a 150-225 mile range. That's in the USA.

The 27k leaf has 149 miles of range.

The 200+ mile ones start around 33k and goes up to over 38k with options.

So he's off by over 20% on cost for 2020... and will be off even further for 2022.

S curves are a thing, for sure- but his is more aggressive than reality reflects.

Possibly he expected legacy to not drag their feet as badly... or he expected the Dysons of the world to have offered compelling products instead of giving up because it's hard- I dunno.

Either way his predictions will absolutely come to pass- just not quite at the speed he's been predicting for years.

Again, he's not very far off. I bet I could get a Leaf for 25k and 200 mile range.

Without subsidy I bet you couldn't.

I agree the short range one is a good deal since you CAN get a subsidy, bringing it down around 20k for a fine local driver.... (the range, and being Chademo, makes it pretty poor for most other uses though)

 

[pz1975]

Wow, I must say, each of my three delivery experiences (2013 S, 2018 3, 2020 Y) were somewhat less exuberant. I didn’t even get floor mats with the Model S!

OT but just had to share that my Tesla roster of cars is identical to yours: 2013 S, 2018 3 and 2020 Y. I also bought a 2010 Roadster in 2020…so it’s your turn!

 

[nativewolf]

He fits right in at TMC. Well horses were present in NYC 13 years later but far far less common, by 30 years after that photo there were hardly any. For a trend spotter I'd say that's a good photo to illustrate change.

I will point out that we do have 200 mile range EVs costing $25k. That's sold in China today, not sure about the subsidy but yes they exist. The new nissan leaf is $27k and up and has a 150-225 mile range. That's in the USA. Again, he's not very far off. I bet I could get a Leaf for 25k and 200 mile range. The nissan leaf is very compelling for someone needing a grocery car and can charge at home.

Oh and a lease price of $89/month, 1500 down. That's a pretty low entry price. I could maybe swing that on the numbers just by cutting out some gas bills.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Pretty surprised we're green this morning. Rather than asking again what max pain is this week....can someone post the link to where I can find it as needed? Is this something I can click to within the Fidelity platform?

 

[FreqFlyer]

Words cannot describe how lit up that place is at night. Flying into or out of AUS, one cannot miss it. And its really lit up when driving past it on 130.

This video gives one a glimpse of the site at night. It is truly a "Close encounters of the third kind" experience when driving my on 130.

 

[Nocturnal]

So Ark thinks robotaxi is worth 11 trillion. If they believe Tesla is the leader then surely that means at least 20% of the total market goes to Tesla. 20% of 11 trillion is a lot I think.

 

[JustMe]

Pretty surprised we're green this morning. Rather than asking again what max pain is this week....can someone post the link to where I can find it as needed? Is this something I can click to within the Fidelity platform?

Stock Option Max Pain

maximum-pain.com

Here

 

[MP3Mike]

Pretty surprised we're green this morning. Rather than asking again what max pain is this week....can someone post the link to where I can find it as needed? Is this something I can click to within the Fidelity platform?

Stock Option Max Pain

www.maximum-pain.com

 

[Ostrichsak]

Glad to hear that jbcarioca. Thank you for the post. Yes, similar story here. I heard nothing from my usual contacts for a week - emails not answered - so this afternoon I called my local service center - San Antonio. A human answered (this person was in Fremont). He had my full account at hand. Patiently explained the process and delivery status of the order. Answered every question politely and professionally. Two minutes later my contact in Las Vegas called with a full status report and delivery information. Coincidence? I think not. Somebody's listening.

Hey @charliepmayer, I think you have your private messaging feature disabled maybe? I was trying to send you a DM but it says I can't.

 

[NicoV]

Same video he also says we'll have 200+ mile range EVs costing 25k by... 2021. This year. And 20k 200+ mile EVs in 2022.

It’s not because these are not available in the USA that they don’t exist. See e.g. Aanbiedingen 2021 – Renault Zoe E-Tech Electric
Advertised price 28K euro (that includes 21% VAT). 360+km WLTP (that’s 223 miles).

 

[Electroman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1430818638588690432

I am concerned that with all of this pressure from his fans, Musk would end up making a hasty decision to release a product that is no where ready for general public use. When the first iteration of summon was bad crap, it invited ridicule but it was not unsafe and no one was harmed. That won't be the case with FSD beta button. The prefix beta won't let him off the hook.

I would rather let the iterations of improvements stay with the current testers until such time we don't see much disengagements or iffy maneuvers, even if it means another year or more for the larger beta release. I understand it is unfair for those that have paid $10k, but you are better off not rushing and taking the heat from those FSD owners than the entire media, establishment, NHTSA, politicians all coming down hard and shutting this down.

They are all waiting for ONE death ONE injury with FSD to shut this down.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Looks like there will be another public hearing of objections against Giga Berlin, this time online (I hope that an online event might keep discussions shorter/more organized but not sure).

Source

Tesla-Erörterung findet als Online-Konsultation statt

Potsdam – In der dritten Beteiligung der Öffentlichkeit im Genehmigungsverfahren für die geplante Fahrzeugfabrik von Tesla in Grünheide (Mark) haben 395 neue Einwenderinnen und Einwender Einsprüche zur geplanten Gigafactory erhoben.

translate.google.com

Background:

Neue Erörterung zu deutscher Tesla-Fabrik beschlossen – aber nur in schriftlicher Form

Wegen vieler neuer Einwendungen gegen die deutsche Tesla-Fabrik gibt es noch einmal eine Erörterung – aber nicht mehr vor Ort.

translate.google.com

Honestly Tesla should finish up Phase 1 of Giga Berlin the Cell factory and not spend one more dime in that country. Complete embarrassment of a country when it comes to being proactive and working with companies to invest there. At this point, they've probably turned off a lot of potential investment from other companies now too and deservedly so. If I was a German resident who's about to see their main source of employment (legacy german auto makers) be completely disrupted and my government turning off the main company that is disrupting and turning off other companies from investing in Germany, I'd be beyond pissed.

If I was Elon, not only would I not be happy about how this whole thing has gone down, but I'd spite Germany by building new Gigafactories and Tesla Europe HQ's in all the countries surrounding Germany......Larry David style

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1430900756836622338

 

[PeterJA]

...I think the inevitable ubiquity of FSD is overstated.... I don't need it! ...

 

[mickificki]

I am concerned that with all of this pressure from his fans, Musk would end up making a hasty decision to release a product that is no where ready for general public use. When the first iteration of summon was bad crap, it invited ridicule but it was not unsafe and no one was harmed. That won't be the case with FSD beta button. The prefix beta won't let him off the hook.

I would rather let the iterations of improvements stay with the current testers until such time we don't see much disengagements or iffy maneuvers, even if it means another year or more for the larger beta release. I understand it is unfair for those that have $10k, but you are better off waiting and taking the heat from those FSD owners than the entire media, establishment, NHTSA, politicians all coming down hard and shutting this down. They are all waiting for ONE death ONE injury with FSD to shut this down.

I understand your viewpoint and at the end of it all you may be right, but disagree. I paid $10k for FSD, and to have to sit on my hands and wait while watching others test the beta latest-and-greatest version, all the while knowing that I could be doing THE EXACT SAME THING helping Tesla and tweeting Elon and emailing Tesla: "hey can I be added to the FSD beta testing please?" and getting no response...

it's driving me bananas...

 

[Electroman]

I understand your viewpoint and at the end of it all you may be right, but disagree. I paid $10k for FSD, and to have to sit on my hands and wait while watching others test the beta latest-and-greatest version, all the while knowing that I could be doing THE EXACT SAME THING helping Tesla and tweeting Elon and emailing Tesla: "hey can I be added to the FSD beta testing please?" and getting no response...

it's driving me bananas...

Agreed. You are one of those that are extremely careful and want to be a part of the mission, and I feel your pain.

But believe me the vast majority of FSD buyers are not like you. A small fraction of them would simply not pay attention - we have seen this with Autopilot - will end up crashing, worse injuring someone - and then the music will come to be an abrupt stop. We all collectively lose.

FSD is a very hard problem. Tesla is far ahead of everyone. So there is no need to rush, even if it takes another year or two or more.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Honestly Tesla should finish up Phase 1 of Giga Berlin the Cell factory and not spend one more dime in that country. Complete embarrassment of a country when it comes to be proactive and at this point, they've probably turned off a lot of potential investment from other companies now too.

If I was Elon, not only would I not be happy about how this whole thing has gone done, but I'd spite Germany by building new Gigafactories and Tesla Europe HQ's in all the countries surrounding Germany......Larry David style

And yet we have Monroe yesterday ranting on our gov't, rightfully wondering how stupid Congress can be for attacking our best American company from the inside. Big picture, both seem dumb. But we all know that money and power keep saying otherwise. I'm just impressed at Tesla production growth despite, and maybe all the extra suppler parts in the queue for Germany are a blessing in this world today, as Monroe also mentions.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Agreed. You are one of those that are extremely careful and want to be a part of the mission, and I feel your pain.

But believe me the vast majority of FSD buyers are not like you. A small fraction of them would simply not pay attention - we have seen this with Autopilot - will end up crashing, worse injuring someone - and then the music will come to be an abrupt stop. We all collectively lose.

FSD is a very hard problem. Tesla is far ahead of everyone. So there is no need to rush, even if it takes another year or two or more.

This is definitely one of those topics that could snowball into it's own thread.

I think you have to take Elon and Tesla at their own word in that safety is key and that they're approaching it very cautiously.......which they have been doing with the FSD Beta for almost a year now. People have been begging for the FSD Beta to go public practically from the start and yet Tesla hasn't bit. No reason to think they'd suddenly risk it now