Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Here is the latest update from Lars (Best in Tesla). A handy consolidation of the recent Tesla related news for anyone wanting to catch up on a sleepy Sunday morning.

 

[Tim S]

That first chart is interesting, 27k of 85k of model Y in USA ended up in 1 state, 32%, yet Cali is only 12% of the US population

Several large states have dealership protectionist laws that make it more difficult for Tesla to sell vehicles there, e.g. TX, NY, MI.

 

[The Accountant]

Quite a bit of negativity in the comments from Wu Wa on his latest Shanghai video. Suggesting there may be a production shutdown going on and complaints about lead times. Not sure how much to make of this? While the lot is full of cars there's no delivery trucks present and maybe less general activity across the site. This was shot on the 29th and Jason Yangs video of the 26th still showed a lot of activity and deliveries going on. Hopefully it's just a changeover from export to local production or something else short lived.

Production lot as you mentioned is full.
Just speculation . . . but I believe that production efficiency is so high that they completed their August production plan early. Logistics for ships and carriers are planned in advance and it looks to me that production ran ahead of logistics (explaining the full lot). This was Sunday at 7:40am. Perhaps we are seeing a well deserved 1-2 days off for the Production Team while logistics catches up. We will know better once we see Wu Wa's next video.

 

[S3XY]

Everyone else will be a footnote compared to Elon.

Probably the 1st human to be seen as a true savior of humanity. Someone will make a church in his name and use the legal loopholes that churches for fictitious stories used to gain financial power in the past and present.

The future will be weirder than we can imagine, for sure.

.5 /s

I'm in. I'm going to need somewhere to hide my chairs.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Production lot as you mentioned is full.
Just speculation . . . but I believe that production efficiency is so high that they completed their August production plan early. Logistics for ships and carriers are planned in advance and it looks to me that production ran ahead of logistics (explaining the full lot). This was Sunday at 7:40am. Perhaps we are seeing a well deserved 1-2 days off for the Production Team while logistics catches up. We will know better once we see Wu Wa's next video.

View attachment 702846

Ships/Carriers though are pretty much done for 3rd quarter though. Might have 1 more ship go somewhere else in Asia, but I would assume it's all local production from here on out. But yes, odds are it's just a well deserved couple of days off (over the weekend)

Also his information or I guess assumptions seem to be easily disproven by the Yang video from Aug 26th

"As early as last week, when the Model 3 was being shipped to Europe, I heard that the Shanghai factory was shutting down production for a week, probably due to a shortage of chips, and that the production line for the Model 3 in Phase 1 was shut down, while the Model Y line was working as usual. We later learned that the Phase 1 Model 3 production line was occasionally working at night last week, and the Model Y shift was not working at full capacity as before. Production was due to resume on August 30, but it was later revealed that the resumption of production was delayed until August 31"

He makes it sound like the factory is been mostly shut down for the past week and that it was set to resume production on the Tuesday but A) Yang's video on the 26th showed the plant working at peak full production (probably the highest we've ever seen) and B) If the factory was shut down from the 27th on, I seriously doubt the cars would just sit their the entire time. Even if the factory was down, they would still likely be moved.

Also his last paragraph was kinda unnecessary. Are the Chinese consumers really that fickle that they complain about waiting 2 months for their car and feel that they should get priority over Tesla doing it's export schedule? Welcome to reality.....

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

FYI: There are now 2 Supercharger locations near me that are under constructions that aren't listed on the Official Tesla Supercharger map page. I wonder how many more are out there BULLISH

• Supercharger - New Bern, NC
• Supercharger - Warsaw, NC

 

[redan]

India may be happening sooner than we think:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Tesla Inc is in talks with at least three Indian auto component suppliers as part of its plans to enter the local market, the Economic Times reported.​

​

The company is seeking critical electrical, electronic and mechanical components, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. The parts include instrument panels, windshields, differential brakes, gears and power seats, the paper said.​

 

[jw934]

But yes, odds are it's just a well deserved couple of days off (over the weekend)

One other possibility, assuming the carrier drivers are not Tesla employees, is that the carrier company is short staffed to make deliveries given the Central government's policy change announced a few days ago to penalize companies that forces their staff to overwork. I am referring to the fight again China's 996 "standard" working hours ( 9 am to 9pm 6 days a week)

To be clear, the law against overwork has not changed, but the tone on enforcement has. I believe this change, along with the illegalization of tutorial school profit enterprises, is the CCP fighting the harsh life of China's working population to make a living wage. Symptoms of life inbalance include the "lie flat" movement, the ever rising cost of prepping for the most-highly regarded university entrance exam, and the decreasing marriage rate and child birth rate.

CNN 2021/08/27/tech/china-supreme-court-996

 

[Artful Dodger]

Shanghai also has a new building in the top right, which I assume is the design studio.

Lol, LOTS of utilities coming in for an office building... also lots of loading bays. If this building DOES contain the Design Studio, it'd have to be on the upper floor. But why make office workers commute? This is a reasonable question, and may in fact be the case due to Tesla's preference that enginneering be collocated with production. So, Design with engineering too? Well, the U.S. Design center is in Hawthorne near SpaceX HQ, not in the San Franscisco Bay area. So, it remains to be seen what will happen in Shanghai.

Circling back to utilities, I have previously speculated that this new building in the NE corner of the Shanghai land lease could include a Gigapress for Model 3. This is PURE speculation (well, look at the equipment mounted on the roof), but Elon has said that Fremont would eventually switch Model 3 to gigacastings. My intuition is that they need to amortize the capital equipment on the existing body line before its replaced. However, those Kuka robots may find a 2nd life making more robots...

Cheers!

 

[insaneoctane]

Size comparison of Tesla factories, to the best of the data I was able to find.

Let me know if you spot inaccuracies.

View attachment 702823

Biggest shock here is how big the Kato pilot is to even the new buildings! It's 1/5 of GF NV and ~1/6 of Berlin...and 1/10 of Shanghai. Very interesting!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Lol, LOTS of utilities coming in for an office building... also lots of loading bays. If this building DOES contain the Design Studio, it'd have to be on the upper floor. But why make office workers commute? This is a reasonable question, and may in fact be the case due to Tesla's preference that enginneering be collocated with production. So, Design with engineering too? Well, the U.S. Design center is in Hawthorne near SpaceX HQ, not in the San Franscisco Bay area. So, it remains to be seen what will happen in Shanghai.

Circling back to utilities, I have previously speculated that this new building in the NE corner of the Shanghai land lease could include a Gigapress for Model 3. This is PURE speculation (well, look at the equipment mounted on the roof), but Elon has said that Fremont would eventually switch Model 3 to gigacastings. My intuition is that they need to amortize the capital equipment on the existing body line before its replaced. However, those Kuka robots may find a 2nd life making more robots...

Cheers!

I can't figure out what it is. There are two extra wide bays making up most of the building. This could be used for casting, however we don't see the same in Austin where there are standard width pillars.

There were also no particularly deep foundations (unless they were done after the walls went up), which could also mean casting but is not a definitive answer.

However while there is some air handling equipment on top, there is far less than on the model Y casting building. There is also far less than I would expect for cell production.

Model Y casting roof for reference.

If I had to guess, I'd agree with @Chenkers that it's the design studio - but only because it seems too different to the other building's we've seen go up for casting or other standard manufacturing buildings.

 

[The Accountant]

2022 Should See Reduced CEO Award Expense
I am projecting that all12 Tranches of the CEO Award will be fully achieved and recognized by Q4 2022.
As you can see by my estimates below, most of the expense for this Award was/will be recognized in 2020 and 2021.
The reduced amount of $190m in 2022 vs the $786m in 2021, will help GAAP EPS in 2022 by about $0.50.
I suspect a new award program will be established for Elon commencing in 2023.

If you would like to see my detailed assumptions for the CEO Award, you can find it here:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

Since we're stuck with reporting GAAP EPS to the SEC, can we examine the effect of the TSLA SP on Elon's CEO Comp expense? Am I correct that the amnt that Telsa claims in SBC expense varies with the SP at the time the expense is booked? Ie: Tesla must claim the cost of the shares at current...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

Who knew, robotaxies are not profitable because people don't want to ride in them. I was thinking about this the other day, how Tesla is the only company that have monetized autonomous driving profitability and it'll take Waymo years before it can be profitable. And this is why I think the places like ARK who loves to give so much weight into Tesla's valuation to robotaxi or ridesharing is wrong. In theory, robotaxies will change the world. In practice, there's a whole bunch of hurdles to overcome considering the ride sharing business is operationally expensive and people in general either fear them or don't feel like there's a need for them.

This is why I think Tesla is doing this right from a profitability standpoint. The margins are high for FSD with interventions, making it the coolest driver assist software around, and it'll slowly work toward FSD without interventions while giving people time to adjust/get comfortable with AV. From the article below, people has more trust in AV after they have taken the first ride. People will indeed trust tesla FSD after we are in the end of the edge cases because they have rode in one for years using it.

So we will see just how profitable robotaxies can be because so far Uber haven't turned a profit with just the app and Waymo is not even close to profitability with a few hundred rides a week.

In a patch of Arizona, everyone knows Waymo. But few use it.

The Alphabet subsidiary rolled out a fully driverless robotaxi service in late 2020, but it has yet to catch on among locals

www.morningbrew.com

I live here in Chandler, this is Waymo central. I think the riders basically have to find the Waymo stops along the mall fronts, so not terribly convenient. And from the experiences I've seen out there, who wants to get stuck in a Waymo because of a Cone in the road, you can't exit the vehicle? It seems so restrictive to me, taking the longer routes to avoid certain intersections. I bet it sucks. But honestly, I never rode in one bc I had to sign an NDA. Plus it burns gas - double sucks.

I also see large buses all over Chandler/Tempe that have no riders either, and just burn fuel waiting at the stops for long periods. So it could be said that there's limited demand for riders in this town (but who knows, maybe I'm just not awake when in use).

 

[Sudre]

I have a question for folks who think Cybertruck's "weird" design will have limited appeal to buyers whom automajors woo with "built tough" commercials featuring trucks climbing boulders with gravel-voiced narration.

Do they think this design looks weird? (stealth aircraft)

Or this? (stealth tank)

Or this? (stealth boat)

I have no idea if Cybertruck is actually a stealth vehicle, but its design and bulletproof steel say Badass Military. Does that appeal to buyers of "tough" trucks?

Funny you should post this. I have been REALLY hoping someone comes out with a "Stealth" full wrap for the Cybertruck even tho it really won't make the vehicle stealth.... it will look cool.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla’s German factory pits politicians against environmentalists

Tesla has run into trouble building its factory near Berlin, but also has plenty of political support.

www.politico.eu

 

[erthquake]

Tesla China Analyst just tweeted for the first time in over two months. He's usually quite accurate, but bearish. His early timing seems way too coincidental with the latest GF3 drone video, Gordo responding immediately within a minute of the post on a Sunday, and the fact that technicals have been lining up for a breakout.

https://twitter.com/teslashanghai/status/1432027084126257153

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla China Analyst just tweeted for the first time in over two months. He's usually quite accurate, but bearish. His early timing seems way too coincidental with the latest GF3 drone video, Gordo responding immediately within a minute of the post on a Sunday, and the fact that technicals have been lining up for a breakout.

https://twitter.com/teslashanghai/status/1432027084126257153

Ummmmm there's 3 more days in Aug (including today for sales). While they may have sold all the supply they have for local sales for Aug, seems pretty premature and also very coincidental on the timing. How would he know if there's not thousands of Tesla's en route to delivery centers across China right now over the weekend? These numbers are way.......way earlier than normal. In fact I don't ever recall local china sales numbers coming out days before the month even ends.

Also, usually when local China sales are released, it's always broken down between 3 sales and Y sales....So for example - Tesla sold 15k in China - 8,000 3's and 7,000 Y's

 

[The Accountant]

Tesla China Analyst just tweeted for the first time in over two months. He's usually quite accurate, but bearish. His early timing seems way too coincidental with the latest GF3 drone video, Gordo responding immediately within a minute of the post on a Sunday, and the fact that technicals have been lining up for a breakout.

https://twitter.com/teslashanghai/status/1432027084126257153

He's stating 10.4k local deliveries in August. That could be quite bullish.
In July, Tesla took 7.7 days to load ships and exports were 24,347
In Aug, Tesla took 11.1 days to load ships - so exports should be higher.
Troy is expecting about 50k in exports from China in Q3 - that would mean 26k in exports for Aug (50-24=26) and 10k in local for 36k total.
The 26k in exports for August seems very low considering the loading days of 11. We could be seeing total export and local deliveries well over 40k for August.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

He's stating 10.4k local deliveries in August. That could be quite bullish.
In July, Tesla took 7.7 days to load ships and exports were 24,347
In Aug, Tesla took 11.1 days to load ships - so exports should be higher.
Troy is expecting about 50k in exports from China in Q3 - that would mean 26k in exports for Aug (50-24=26) and 10k in local for 36k total.
The 26k in exports for August seems very low considering the loading days of 11. We could be seeing total export and local deliveries well over 40k for August.

View attachment 702953

All the data in the form of the factory flyover's combined with the increase in production rates reported points to total production being at least on par with July (37k) if not somewhat higher. I'm guessing 40-42k total production. I would have guessed 45k total production but if the factory shut down from Jan 27th till the 31st, then that takes away like 3-4k of production.

Like you mentioned, the loading days were longer in Aug so seems like each ship is carrying more than in July. But if this 10k local delivery number is correct, that means ship tracking twitter people missed a couple ships....which they acknowledge is possible. Especially for ships carrying Tesla's to non-Europe locations.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If I had to guess, I'd agree with @Chenkers that it's the design studio

Lol, then those 'designers' need to cut back on the beans...

Cheers!