Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Xd85]

I understand your point. I don't expect much in exports in September,
By the way, I was being conservative using Troy's numbers. He's likely low.

If Tesla exported 24k in July with 7.7 days of loading, then one might extrapolate the 11 days of loading time in August to 35k cars exported. Add the 10k in local deliveries and you have a whopping 45k for August. That number does seem too high to me but it gives us an idea that the 10k local may not be a bad number.
Also remember that Tesla was loading the last ship in Aug (the Triton Ace) from Aug 20-23. So we can see Tesla did not have many production days in Aug to service the local market.

I could be very well behind the times but how do y’all figure out loading times and ship capacity? Sounded in line with flyovers but never stopped to wonder.

also curious since the export game is going so strong: is Chinese govt getting a cut of exports in terms of duties? Otherwise why allow them to shadow local sales?

 

[The Accountant]

I could be very well behind the times but how do y’all figure out loading times and ship capacity? Sounded in line with flyovers but never stopped to wonder.

also curious since the export game is going so strong: is Chinese govt getting a cut of exports in terms of duties? Otherwise why allow them to shadow local sales?

I get my shipping information from @FMossotto on Twitter. https://twitter.com/FMossotto
He provides this terrific spreadsheet: Tesla Carriers
I believe he picks up the loading times from ship data that's publicly available.
Here is an example for the Triton Ace:

GEMINI LEADER, Vehicles Carrier - Details and current position - IMO 9519121 - VesselFinder

Vessel GEMINI LEADER (IMO 9519121, MMSI 371862000) is a Vehicles Carrier built in 2009 and currently sailing under the flag of Panama.

www.vesselfinder.com

@FMossotto does not have a complete list of ships. He misses the Shanghai ships to other Asia Pacific locations.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I could be very well behind the times but how do y’all figure out loading times and ship capacity? Sounded in line with flyovers but never stopped to wonder.

also curious since the export game is going so strong: is Chinese govt getting a cut of exports in terms of duties? Otherwise why allow them to shadow local sales?

The main objective of the Chinese government is social cohesion. Tesla's exports create thousands of well paid jobs (at Giga Shanghai and its suppliers). This benefits Chinese society. An extra bonus: if the cars are of high build quality, which they are (reviews of Model Y in Europe are raving), that improves China's economic status in the world.

Exports do not bring in duties for China, only for European countries.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's still pre-market, so here goes:

You missed my point (or I made it poorly): I'm irritated by the frequent whining on TMC regards GigaBerlin delays and the suggestion that these are caused by over-reach by the German government's interpretation of environmental or other laws. The fact of the matter is: Tesla should have known what they were going to be up against in Germany when they planned GigaBerlin - and I'm sure they modeled it out - and this (unfortunately or not) is simply how things are done here. For better or worse.
The fact that Tesla has been able to get this far on preliminary or conditional approval (and then nearly f'ed that up by missing the €100mm security deposit deadline) just shows how much support Tesla really has here.

Everything else is noise that is justified or not, depending on what side of the argument you're on.

I'm really looking forward to GigaBerlin being finished and I'm sure that when that day comes, it will be far superior to what is being built in Texas (**ducks** )

(Also, I don't have two degrees in whatever, never mind advanced ones)

1) You (general/Tesla) can’t know what you’ve never experienced before especially when somebody who’s supposed to be in control/command (German bureaucrat) says one thing but the experience turns out to be another - please don’t make me explain that further.

2) You (personally) also don’t know what you’ve not experienced unless you’re in some serious incognito position and you’re the one distributing money to said government on Tesla’s behalf. And no, we aren’t accepting media information on the topic for obvious reasons.

3) Feel free to factually correct people spouting opinions, but do try and refrain from being righteously indignant when you’re also just simply swinging around an opinion.

 

[Unpilot]

but do try and refrain from being righteously indignant when you’re also just simply swinging around an opinion.

Um....do you want to stop 90 percent of the internet comment's and chat rooms?
Not to mention the conservative/liberal news entertainment complex?

 

[Unpilot]

 

[Cattledog]

How much do we think Rivian's proposed valuation that came out over the weekend, $80B, will play into people's psychology and their views on the value of Tesla? As in, 'if Rivian's actually worth that much, TSLA is actually a bargain at its current valuation'.

 

[-=buzz=-]

It's too early to say what Berlin will look like, however they also have more air handling equipment stored than I saw at Shanghai.
View attachment 703146

FYI:
From the permit application plans it looks like Berlin is basically a carbon copy of the Texas battery plant. Even the angled building parts are present.
The only possible difference I could gather from the construction videos is, that Texas might be wider and fit two lines. This is based on the two deep foundations dug out and refilled, while there is only one pit in Berlin.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

3) Feel free to factually correct people spouting opinions, but do try and refrain from being righteously indignant when you’re also just simply swinging around an opinion.

I wouldn't call giving an actual German perspective "simply swinging around an opinion". I've been pushing back on this TMC narrative of red tape and environmental concerns holding back development in Brandenburg, because I simply don't see it either.

German logic is to do what's in their interest, therefore the legacy manufacturers(and their tons of employees) might temporarily have an outsized impact on gov't attitude toward Tesla. But I'm not seeing any real delay or slowdown that Tesla didn't initiate themselves. Scope seems to have taken a turn to a smaller footprint, at least temporarily, but that was right after the German gov't announced subsides that so clearly favored VW. Elon pushed back on that and didn't get very far, then magically the next week we hear talk of a possible UK Tesla facility and a scaling back of scope in Brandenburg.

This is all standard stuff, same exact situation SolarCity went through in Nevada. They build their nationwide sales/service headquarters in Nevada, then the state gov't instantly ends net metering to sabotage solar in NV.

Construction seems to be moving along quite quickly.....what's the problem?

 

[Unpilot]

MMD right on schedule

 

[TheTalkingMule]

MMD right on schedule

And was quickly steamrolled. Gonna be an interesting week.

 

[Rarity]

I'm really looking forward to GigaBerlin being finished and I'm sure that when that day comes, it will be far superior to what is being built in Texas (**ducks** )

You're being way too defensive about this and instead should be lobbying your government to change things for the better. I have limited insight into the problem and its solutions. But the aggregate of factors doesn't lie, even if it is an imperfect measurement.

After all, the basis of comparison for Tesla investors is Shanghai and few of us actually are from China. Honestly, I am surprised that Giga Austin was able to be built as fast as it was, as big as it is. It's proof positive that companies can build in the US roughly in the same time period as "China Fast." Big caveat: Under certain circumstances, as I'm sure "China Fast" also is.

The general background is that Musk has figured out how to build big things quickly, cheaply, and repeatedly. This is a rare skill in our modern world. Maybe that skill is found more often in Asia nowadays, but even in Asia it is rare. Examples of projects that have gone sideways abound. Tens or hundreds of billions of Dollars/Euros/Yen/Yuan per project flushed down the toilet. Decades of effort lost. There are even intellectuals who have made their careers on the study of these blowups (e.g., Bent Flyvbjerg).

So far, Musk has avoided these blowups, much to our benefit as Tesla shareholders and to the prospects of Tesla's scaling over the next decade. In broad outlines, Musk builds things "on spec", in phases, with a quick time to first production. Maybe in Berlin he needs to adjust his style in order to achieve "China Fast." We all learn and Musk more than most.

 

[scaesare]

OT. somewhat
there are bad things and folks need positive stuff
re:space, September is going to be a wild thyme

Spoiler: OT: Word Fun

We'll look back on it through rosemary colored glasses!

 

[Artful Dodger]

MMD right on schedule

There were 7.25K Calls contracts open at the $725 Strike price is morning (that explains the quick sprint out of the blocks at the Open, as some Call holders will want to execute those and cash out quickly).

The PROBLEM for MMs right now is that there's also 5.2K Put contracts open at the $720 Strike, so they can't let the hedgies drive the price down too low, or the MMs end up paying out for the surplus in $720 Strikes (small increment over $720 Calls, admittedly).

And so, we sit in the middle:

Cheers!

 

[aubreymcfato]

Good message and laudable intention, but misled and wrong conclusion.

Just want to make a brief comment about "to protect endangered species of animals, or plants" part as a person who had two advanced degrees in this field (For a couple of years, I personally measured soil CO2 efflux of tree plantation, which was exactly the same kind of forest the Giga Berlin cut down/will cut down):

The single standing tree after the adjacent trees all chopped down in the middle of the huge building site is a total mockery to anyone who studied/work in relevant fields and worth the weight of their respective diplomats, i.e. it has nothing to do with protection of endangered species, but everything to do with shenanigans and ulterior motivations.

I can write pages to justify why is that, but I guess too OT then.

(could you make a dedicated thread? Would love to know more about this stuff and it is tangentially useful to counter FUD (in good or bad faith) from environmental groups and activists)

 

[Krugerrand]

Um....do you want to stop 90 percent of the internet comment's and chat rooms?
Not to mention the conservative/liberal news entertainment complex?

Yes. People should talk/type/text/tweet/post a whole lot less and ‘do’ a whole lot more.

 

[Yoona]

And was quickly steamrolled. Gonna be an interesting week.

TSLA on top of all autos

 

[Krugerrand]

How much do we think Rivian's proposed valuation that came out over the weekend, $80B, will play into people's psychology and their views on the value of Tesla? As in, 'if Rivian's actually worth that much, TSLA is actually a bargain at its current valuation'.

Zero for anyone with half a brain. So, that means we should expect a lot of articles over the coming months trying to justify, extrapolate, connect, rationalize and explain in gripping detail.

 

[Krugerrand]

I wouldn't call giving an actual German perspective "simply swinging around an opinion". I've been pushing back on this TMC narrative of red tape and environmental concerns holding back development in Brandenburg, because I simply don't see it either.

German logic is to do what's in their interest, therefore the legacy manufacturers(and their tons of employees) might temporarily have an outsized impact on gov't attitude toward Tesla. But I'm not seeing any real delay or slowdown that Tesla didn't initiate themselves. Scope seems to have taken a turn to a smaller footprint, at least temporarily, but that was right after the German gov't announced subsides that so clearly favored VW. Elon pushed back on that and didn't get very far, then magically the next week we hear talk of a possible UK Tesla facility and a scaling back of scope in Brandenburg.

This is all standard stuff, same exact situation SolarCity went through in Nevada. They build their nationwide sales/service headquarters in Nevada, then the state gov't instantly ends net metering to sabotage solar in NV.

Construction seems to be moving along quite quickly.....what's the problem?

As a German, married to a German with German relatives working in the German auto industry - yes, it was a bunch of opinion sparked by a bunch of opinion.

I originally pushed back against some European posters here who claimed GigaBerlin would take years to build. And while progress isn’t as fast as I hoped it would be, it is still significantly faster than those posters said it would be. So, I don’t actually have a problem other than my general problem with people, including those in Germany trying to slow Tesla progress down - that’s all fact.

I’ve also gone on record as saying GigaTexas will produce vehicles before Berlin, though Berlin quality, when all is said and done, will be higher than Texas quality.

Given the state of affairs on the planet, it would behoove Germany and all opposing Tesla there to pull their heads out of their black forest cake, otherwise they may find themselves fighting for survival against the very ants they deem more important than the human race.

Now don’t go all insect, animal or tree rights on me. I’m for nature ahead of humanity every single day. We completely suck and with nature’s repeated attempts to eradicate us for millennia, it agrees with me. I’m just stating my opinion in regards to intelligent or in this case lack of intelligent decisions. Particularly when considering the guy they’re fighting. All they had to do was give Elon a list; replace the trees, put up bat houses around the factory, keep water usage as low as possible etc… and I guarantee he’d have agreed to all of it. That’s called win-win-win.

 

[Snerruc]

Um....do you want to stop 90 percent of the internet comment's and chat rooms?
Not to mention the conservative/liberal news entertainment complex?

Yes, please!