Except they didn't put it in the S/X.It's almost as if they put fire retardant in every pack. I swear I've heard that somewhere before.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Phobi
Member
If it's anything like my pack replacement, it was a refurbished pack with roughly the same SOC/range. So the "effective age" of the pack may be closer to the 350,000km for him.
Mark Fields just on CNBC talking about 60% of his time about supply chain problems being constraining production for auto makers. EM seems to also relate this challenge on the last earnings call. BTW, avg auto sale price has climbed above $41k it seems and average time "on lot" for ICE cars seems to be down to 10 days. They are clearly selling all they can make as they reduce production guidance. Honda is the latest. Fields says to expect production reductions to mean closed plants in the short term.
It has also been discussed here that Taiwan storms can impact chip production and this was also hinted at by Fields. Part of Fields story is that demand exceeds production abilities and will for the future.
So, it is possible to design around the function of certain chips with daughter boards or functional redesigns at the design level. Tesla would be quick to do this but the real solution is a healthy supply chain of chips.
If Fields is not blowing smoke about product demand driving expanded production expectations into the future, then chip demand is not only in need of restoring production but increasing production. This I believe is related to the extended duration of the chip shortage. Chip production will increase at the same time as demand increases resulting in prolonged supply chain pressures.
Speaking for myself, I see uncertainty in the supply chain and how long it will take to stabilize. Can Tesla MacGyver its way to 800k in 2021, sure. Can Tesla grow 50% beyond that into 2022 with the supply chain uncertainty that seems to be suggested, hummmm...
If the market looks out 6 months, the question is floating out there (for me) about the LEAP activity we have seen recently. Is there a connection between supply chain fears impacting the longer term options or is it something else? Are there dots to connect that are real or is this just Tesla being rolled in with the auto sector by the institutions?
It has also been discussed here that Taiwan storms can impact chip production and this was also hinted at by Fields. Part of Fields story is that demand exceeds production abilities and will for the future.
So, it is possible to design around the function of certain chips with daughter boards or functional redesigns at the design level. Tesla would be quick to do this but the real solution is a healthy supply chain of chips.
If Fields is not blowing smoke about product demand driving expanded production expectations into the future, then chip demand is not only in need of restoring production but increasing production. This I believe is related to the extended duration of the chip shortage. Chip production will increase at the same time as demand increases resulting in prolonged supply chain pressures.
Speaking for myself, I see uncertainty in the supply chain and how long it will take to stabilize. Can Tesla MacGyver its way to 800k in 2021, sure. Can Tesla grow 50% beyond that into 2022 with the supply chain uncertainty that seems to be suggested, hummmm...
If the market looks out 6 months, the question is floating out there (for me) about the LEAP activity we have seen recently. Is there a connection between supply chain fears impacting the longer term options or is it something else? Are there dots to connect that are real or is this just Tesla being rolled in with the auto sector by the institutions?
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Sweden has consistently been at the second level (Norway is alone at level 1) of European electric car sales. Let hope other countries there are following because fully electric cars went from 8% in August 2020 to 24% in August 2021. There's also still a lot of hybrids sold but they are finally starting to decline.
Aaah. Welcome to
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That's what we average in both our Model 3's. The LR RWD can get the rated range at up to 70 mph in still air depending upon climate control needs and road surface even in somewhat hilly terrain and the Stealth Performance can go about 66 mph and return rated range under comparable conditions. This is on a highway that doesn't have a very abrasive surface. We have a lot of chip seal rural highways and the impact is significant, we have to go about 3-4 mph slower to get the same range.
The fleet average is lower because people do dumb stuff - from using high rolling resistance tires with the wrong cold air pressure, ditching the aero wheel covers, having an empty frunk and a trunk with a lot of "permanent" luggage, The best way to ruin your range is driving style, either varying speed a lot or following a car on TACC that is varying speed a lot.
For these reasons it's really difficult to get good efficiency comparison numbers (even a lot of supposedly 'controlled' tests on Youtube are not apples to apples comparisons). One popular Mach-e vs. Model Y range test on Youtube is performed by people aligned with the traditional car industry and it's apparent they purposefully gamed the test in multiple small ways, including the roads chosen. (while not really fully admitting, even to themselves perhaps, what they had done). The EPA numbers are generally pretty good for what they represent (a mix of slow speed driving) but what is needed is an EPA 70 mph steady-state number.
These efficiency numbers are actually quite important from an investment perspective because they speak to the size of battery pack a manufacturer would need to equal the performance of a competitor (and thus how much potential margin they can achieve on each model). Requiring $300 more batteries is essentially all lost profit and the extra weight degrades driving feel. If the profit was only $1000 to begin with, that's a pretty big blow to the bottom line! This is one big reason why many OEM's cannot sell their EV's at a profit. A lot of people have their head in the sand on this issue.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
They just have to keep it below 750 this week. If a breakout happens over 750, from a TA perspective, the share price should have room to run. Holding that back to next week, then betting on the breakout will make it all worth it.
Correct, It's hard enough to do it in an ICE vehicle because at least you can put a 1 litre tank and run it down to empty so you have a real measured amount of fuel. This isn't possible with an EV. Also there are at least twenty more things you have to check in addition to the ones you mentioned.
I already know thatāll never happen
The excitement I get from buying more TSLA with money that took me 110+ hour work weeks, and months and months to earn, in 30 seconds, is truly addicting.
Here's a good article from Nikkei Asia that begins with Google making its own silicon, but continues by giving a broader view of efforts by tech majors such as Tesla to design their own silicon. Quoted a $500 million figure to design and produce a 5 nm chip. Does that sound about right for Dojo? If so, that sounds reasonable.
That said, I wonder if these tech majors are finding it acceptable to put their fate in the hands of TSMC and Samsung and the Taiwan-Japan-South Korea supply chain for chip production. I wouldn't be surprised to see some activity to break free from that, perhaps led by Tesla.
asia.nikkei.com
That said, I wonder if these tech majors are finding it acceptable to put their fate in the hands of TSMC and Samsung and the Taiwan-Japan-South Korea supply chain for chip production. I wouldn't be surprised to see some activity to break free from that, perhaps led by Tesla.
Google developing own CPUs for Chromebook laptops
US software giant ramps up hiring blitz for semiconductor and hardware ambitions
asia.nikkei.com
ZachF
Active Member
ZachF
Active Member
Q3 and Q4 are gonna be lit fellas... I can feel it.
Analysts got their heads in the sand.
Analysts got their heads in the sand.
What i don't understand is why an 'ex Ford CEO' is on all the time and the current Ford CEO is off promoting tweets on Twitter.
Perhaps the current Ford CEO knows that CNBC is irrelevant.
Ex-CEOs show up on these programs to get their ego stroked and maybe boost a book sale or something.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I wish I had simply contracted the original disorder. Unfortunately I caught the delta variant very early on and it's diluted my holdings substantially!
ZachF
Active Member
Just doing some napkin math:
If Tesla bot is 120lbs (55kg) and 20% of TeslaBot's weight is high-nickel 4680 batteries, then the battery pack for Tesla Bot would be ~3 KWh.
If Tesla bot is 120lbs (55kg) and 20% of TeslaBot's weight is high-nickel 4680 batteries, then the battery pack for Tesla Bot would be ~3 KWh.
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