Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

I bought the Baron fund that is ~50% Tesla because I’m hoping they will get preferential access to Starlink and SpaceX. It doesn’t bother me to pay managers fees for alpha.

If you are talking about BFGIX - Baron Focused Growth Mutual Fund - Small to Mid-Cap Growth it only has 32% TSLA and 3.5% SpaceX now.

 

[2daMoon]

The entire point of that article, in case it’s not obvious, is to subconsciously link “Tesla batteries” and “fire” in readers’ minds.

Who could ever forget the aftermath of the big EverReady battery truck crash?

Or the big Ray-o-vac battery truck crash ...

Or the crash of the truck carrying the DieHard batteries ...

Or the time the Energizer Bunny caught on fire ...

/s

 

[ninpb]

Who could ever forget the aftermath of the big EverReady battery truck crash?

Or the big Ray-o-vac battery truck crash ...

Or the crash of the truck carrying the DieHard batteries ...

Or the time the Energizer Bunny caught on fire ...

/s

I can only remember this gas tanker shutting down the
freeway for 12 hours Tanker truck explosion forces closure of 91 Freeway in Corona [Updated]
and probably a Duff Beer truck crashing in the Simpsons.

 

[woodisgood]

Who could ever forget the aftermath….

Or the time the Energizer Bunny caught on fire ...

/s

THAT one would be totally memorable. It keeps burning and burning and burning and burning….

 

[CHGolferJim]

If you are talking about BFGIX - Baron Focused Growth Mutual Fund - Small to Mid-Cap Growth it only has 32% TSLA and 3.5% SpaceX now.

Thanks! I have BPTIX (Baron Partners Fund) — 41% TSLA and 4.7% SpaceX, looks like they reallocated a little.

 

[insaneoctane]

I’m torn because we’ve been paying oil companies to poison our planet for as long as I’ve been a taxpayer…hopefully this is yet another nail in that coffin.

I’m certain that the pace/path that we’re on WRT climate change is at a critical tipping point. And at least ‘something’ is being done (attempted). Also I like the language about increase in household income to qualify and the tax credit of $2,500 on used EV’s.

Gary Black seems to think the Union language won’t pass the senate. I tend to agree with him.

Oil subsidies are the opposite of what should be happening. Agreed. I see decreasing oil subsidies as similar strategy to adding EV subsidies. Use of oil has significant down stream consequences and costs that the benefiting industries overlook...this fact not only justifies removing oil subsidies but arguably justifies adding taxes to recoup those down stream costs to reach net zero for the taxpayers. This (additional carbon based taxes that would raise the cost of gasoline) is very unpopular in US as ICE has 97%+ of the current automobile market. My carbon tax suggest is NOT politically motivated, rather purely based on true costs. A UAW subsidy has nothing to do with any of this and to conflate it as related to helpful EV subsidies is damaging and total political BS. This sneaky BS impacts my investment in TSLA as it lowers their relative margins to their UAW based competitors. I would prefer the Fed admit it and hand GM and Ford a grant for sucking too much so that there could be proper public opinion.

 

[hacer]

I've never understood the confusion around this stuff though. If I wanted 100% Tesla exposure I can buy TSLA myself and not pay a management fee. You buy a fund to diversify and hopefully make some money on swings.

One aspect to ETFs is that if you hold the ETF shares long term, you have only long term capital gains even if the underlying fund made short term trades. You can't do that trading yourself. So IF the fund is able to successfully swing trade it confers this tax benefit that you have way to do yourself. I emphasize the "if" because it's not generally possible, yet we have observed several semi-predictable patterns in TSLA namely the mid-morning dips and the recent Friday crushes followed by Monday recovery. I've played a few of the latter successfully but the tax bite is going to suck.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla FSD Beta 10 solves Lombard St in San Francisco (0 interventions):

 

[Buckminster]

We are missing the best FSD tester - Chuck Cook. He will be able to start testing on Thursday. James Locke seems to be fairly scientific in his methodology:

V10 looks like a solid 5% improvement. At this rate of progress (which I think they can continue) I would estimate 2 more months until 99% of journeys are without disengagements. Then the march of nines begins for real.

 

[ammulder]

That's actually a pretty shortsighted way of viewing this for a few reasons

- Very likely Tesla will raise prices by 2-3k when this passes
- Practically takes away any chance of price drops in the US over the next 5 years
- During which time, Tesla will be implementing multiple cost savings features with the biggest being 4680 Cells
- Since no price drops while associated costs and operating costs drop(due to Texas being more efficient than Fremont by many orders of magnitude + much higher production out a single factory when compared to Fremont), it will straight to Tesla's bottom line.

I’m not convinced Tesla will just keep beefing up their profits per car. What if the subsidy let the Model 3 SR LFP go for $30k in the USA? I mean, they likely wouldn’t need to lower the price just to sell enough, but what if the theory was to let customers of lower means get in the long line for a Tesla without needing to import the Model 2 or to allocate US factory space for a cheaper but less-popular-in-the-US vehicle size? Elon has made noises about lowering prices before, and to maintain overall margins Tesla could keep selling the Y and higher trim 3 for more premium prices.

 

[dl003]

That's actually a pretty shortsighted way of viewing this for a few reasons

- Very likely Tesla will raise prices by 2-3k when this passes
- Practically takes away any chance of price drops in the US over the next 5 years
- During which time, Tesla will be implementing multiple cost savings features with the biggest being 4680 Cells
- Since no price drops while associated costs and operating costs drop(due to Texas being more efficient than Fremont by many orders of magnitude + much higher production out a single factory when compared to Fremont), it will straight to Tesla's bottom line.

I think the point here is the rebate wouldnt automatically go straight to Tesla’s bottomline. It would still take price increases for the company to benefit and then there are limitations involved, namely the optics and the price limits imposed. Its far from the full $7,500.

 

[22522]

I've never understood the confusion around this stuff though. If I wanted 100% Tesla exposure I can buy TSLA myself and not pay a management fee. You buy a fund to diversify and hopefully make some money on swings.

Thanks. I think access to SpaceX is a key motivator to buy Barron and ARK products. Someone mentioned this with Barron, but I think it applies to ARK as well.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Thanks. I think access to SpaceX is a key motivator to buy Barron and ARK products. Someone mentioned this with Barron, but I think it applies to ARK as well.

I wasn't aware of any of the ARK funds containing any SpaceX. Or are you forecasting potential future access to it in the ARK space fund, by virtue of Elon's and Cathie's relationship of mutual respect ?

 

[RobStark]

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I’m not convinced Tesla will just keep beefing up their profits per car. What if the subsidy let the Model 3 SR LFP go for $30k in the USA? I mean, they likely wouldn’t need to lower the price just to sell enough, but what if the theory was to let customers of lower means get in the long line for a Tesla without needing to import the Model 2 or to allocate US factory space for a cheaper but less-popular-in-the-US vehicle size? Elon has made noises about lowering prices before, and to maintain overall margins Tesla could keep selling the Y and higher trim 3 for more premium prices.

The ASP of a new car is in the mid to upper $30,000's. Sorry but I just don't buy that argument that Tesla needs or should subject itself to lower margins when the SR Model 3 is already at $36,000 before the $8,000 in ev rebates consumers would get with this new EV incentive. Tesla could raise prices $2,000 and the consumer would still get a Model 3 SR at the price of $30,000.

Elon's comments about making EV's more affordable and how Tesla's profit percentage are continually pointed but like all things Elon, context matters. The new EV rebate even after a $3,000 price hike on the 3 still takes the Model SR down to $31,000. That is plenty affordable and expands the market for a Tesla to the majority of the US auto consumers. I know some don't agree with me here but I think the price hikes this year has mostly been about preparation for the impending ev credit/rebate. Some think it's all cost of goods increase. I very much do not think it is. But we'll know for certain on Q3 earnings.

Also, I've said before, I seriously doubt the Model 2 (or whatever it will be called) will be introduced into the US market until late 2023 or 2024 at the earliest. Tesla will simply use the Model 3 SR with the tax credit/rebate to act as the Model 2 for the US markets while the actual Model 2 will be for every other market except for the US.

 

[22522]

I wasn't aware of any of the ARK funds containing any SpaceX. Or are you forecasting potential future access to it in the ARK space fund, by virtue of Elon's and Cathie's relationship of mutual respect ?

I think you are right.

The Barron Partner Fund mentioned here seems like the safe bet. Moved some cash I have to conservatively manage to that one this morning. So Cathie's thinking with Barron's fund as a "win the inflation race with innovation" move.

Thanks to all for at least providing an idea of how one might invest.

 

[RobStark]

The average transaction price (ATP) on a new vehicle in the USA is $41,263.

US: New Car Average Transaction Price Increased, But Not EVs

Kelley Blue Book recently released a very interesting report about the average transaction prices for a light vehicle in the U.S. for the month of May 2021.

insideevs.com

 

[Words of HABIT]

View attachment 708079

Just shows how much work is ahead for Tesla to achieve World dominance.

 

[FireMedic]

The ASP of a new car is in the mid to upper $30,000's. Sorry but I just don't buy that argument that Tesla needs or should subject itself to lower margins when the SR Model 3 is already at $36,000 before the $8,000 in ev rebates consumers would get with this new EV incentive. Tesla could raise prices $2,000 and the consumer would still get a Model 3 SR at the price of $30,000.

Elon's comments about making EV's more affordable and how Tesla's profit percentage are continually pointed but like all things Elon, context matters. The new EV rebate even after a $3,000 price hike on the 3 still takes the Model SR down to $31,000. That is plenty affordable and expands the market for a Tesla to the majority of the US auto consumers. I know some don't agree with me here but I think the price hikes this year has mostly been about preparation for the impending ev credit/rebate. Some think it's all cost of goods increase. I very much do not think it is. But we'll know for certain on Q3 earnings.

Also, I've said before, I seriously doubt the Model 2 (or whatever it will be called) will be introduced into the US market until late 2023 or 2024 at the earliest. Tesla will simply use the Model 3 SR with the tax credit/rebate to act as the Model 2 for the US markets while the actual Model 2 will be for every other market except for the US.

The caviat is market clearing price. If Tesla cars have a 6month+ waiting list; it negatively affects consumer experience and negates the benefit of a low price.

The ‘demand problem’ that Tesla is facing is a massive tailwind that cannot be quantified. This is a major reason that most agree an EV tax credit doesn’t benefit Tesla right now.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The caviat is market clearing price. If Tesla cars have a 6month+ waiting list; it negatively affects consumer experience and negates the benefit of a low price.

The ‘demand problem’ that Tesla is facing is a massive tailwind that cannot be quantified. This is a major reason that most agree an EV tax credit doesn’t benefit Tesla right now.

Not quite sure how to respond to this notion that the EV tax credit doesn't benefit Tesla right now. Does it change how much Tesla will delivery in 2022? Absolutely not

Will it make a big impact on Tesla's business and finances? Absolutely. If Tesla does a price increase to coincide with the EV credit/rebate taking effect, all of the price increase will go to profits. All cost savings and efficiencies will be realized from now through to the foreseeable future go straight to profits since Tesla won't need to lower prices from their current price points in the US for many, many years......even as they greatly expand their production.

But in terms of who the EV tax credit/rebates helps now and for the foreseeable future, as I mentioned in an earlier post, Tesla is the only one it really benefits. No one else can ramp up their EV's beyond maybe a couple hundred thousand vehicles a year, and even then it'll be 2024 or 2025 for the likes of Ford/GM reach those levels. The only legacy auto maker that at least has SOME battery supply is VW and they're excluded from the $4,500 Union part and the $500 battery made in US part. They'll actually be at a big disadvantage to Tesla now because before, they at least have the $7,500 existing EV credit to use that Tesla couldn't use.