Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

UK, discounted cars from dealers, Tesla related: showing EV demand in general, plus some indication of ICE discounts/demand (shorter list than usual).

Not many discounted EVs except ID3/4, so I think car & EV demand is high (not news!), but ID3/4 still seem to struggle, discounts are higher than many ICE. I think the big VW push is demand limited by a bad review/impression/reputation (software reliability/slowness).

Peugeot/Stellantis EVs not listed (they were previously), so I think Stellantis are selling their no-nonsense EVs easily.

Spoiler: Details-Images

 

[Artful Dodger]

Macros and TSLA both green w. moderate volume in the early Pre-market:

Nasdaq 100 Sep 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,502.50 +61.00 (+0.40%)
As of 5:20AM EDT. Market open.

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Sep 13, 2021 05:33 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$740.79 +4.52 (+0.61%)
Pre-Market Volume	37,704
Pre-Market High	$743.23 (04:18:23 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$736.27 (04:00:00 AM)

 

[CLK350]

For the tea leaves readers: Elon being playful, changed his Twitter display name from "Elon Musk" to "Name" - seems like being in a good mood implies good health for the company, then again he's ambivalent about the SP. So probably a gradual, no drama (no split) increase, "on average", with the normal fabricated ups and downs (for readers new to the forum and TSLA).

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1437324607292428290

 

[Cobos]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1436886551829651459

I'm enjoying the stats at Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge as well as everyone.
I started looking a few days into the surge of new Model Y arriving in Norway. At that point Model Y was the 23rd best-selling EV in all of 2021 (from starting about the middle of August). And excepting the RAV4 Hybrid generally speaking the best-selling EV is the best selling car as well. With pure EV's having about 70-80% market share of new sales.

Anyway last week Model Y moved into the first page of the statistics (as default it only shows position 1-10), and it seems like it will climb to position 8 later today. And another 1000 cars will jump it up to 6th position right behind the Leaf (which still sells pretty good here in Norway). +500 and it will likely pass the Mach-E as well. And keep in mind I'm not looking at September, that was won on September 2nd, but total sales for 2021.

Exciting times, guessing the nr 1 spot is locked, so I assume Model Y on December 31 will be at position 2. Nr 1 of course is Model 3

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Perhaps useful to LEAP buyers - I noticed that Jan 19, 2024 LEAPS are being shown as an option by some brokerages as of yesterday.

 

[nativewolf]

Considering climate change is listed at one of the main reasons for this infrastructure bill, no way Democrats drop it or significantly reduce it. They might as well say goodbye to re-election and they know it. The bill can easily be brought down to 2-2.5 trillion and have plenty of room for 100 billion in renewable energy incentives.

btw machin’s words aren’t new. He said the same thing at the beginning of last week and said exactly 1.5 trillion then too. He’s simply postering publicly for his voting base and then say he walked the spending down to 2.5 trillion.

Don't count on it. He wants something but also that bill is so full of pork it is ridiculous. Just look at the EV subsidy. Crazy. Why subsidize at all? The demand exceeds supply and they are not cheap cars. Clearly we don't need any subsidy. We wont need any til battery supply is doubled again. At that point...take a look and see if we need any. In the meantime it is a pork barrel gift to GM.

I have to say that I am grossly disappointed at the overall bill. If anything subsidize solar production and the build out of battery capacity here in the USA. , lithium mining and REFINING, recycling, these are the things. Overall I just see a giant pork laden debt inducing pile of crap of a bill. If the rest of the bill is as bad as the EV subsidy than scrap the whole thing. Better yet, just pass laws that remove barriers to things like rooftop solar and don't allow energy exports from Tx if the Tx grid is isolated.

 

[jerry33]

Americans are looking for all sorts of ways to save money and there's a good chance that not everyone is servicing their ICE cars the way they should. I think that not all, but a *large* chunk of the U.S. two-car demographic will be happy to become a one-car demographic when the other car can go away and be replaced by a clean, on-demand BEV that can drive you ride from a bar/wedding reception/bowling night, ride in and simply look at Instagram for the whole journey, etc. etc., you never need to pay to park it, fuel it up, maintain it, insure it, make the payments, wash it... no need for a two-car garage any more (in fact a lot of new houses are one-car garage/carport) - the list goes on and on. I think this will be another unexpected revolution - in a bad way - for the legacy auto manufacturers, and it will hit every price range, because all of a sudden buyers of less-expensive cars (including USED cars) will be able to afford their own private rides, and won't be buying new Honda Civics, Hyundai Elantras and the like - or competing used Accords, Camrys, Mercs, BMW 320 etc.. As more and more robotaxis get deployed it's gonna start a price crash!

Mostly agree, but the second car is almost always the primary car that's aged and been replaced because it's no longer trusted for primary car duties, so I think this will be a more gradual process.

 

[22522]

Don't count on it. He wants something but also that bill is so full of pork it is ridiculous. Just look at the EV subsidy. Crazy. Why subsidize at all? The demand exceeds supply and they are not cheap cars. Clearly we don't need any subsidy. We wont need any til battery supply is doubled again. At that point...take a look and see if we need any. In the meantime it is a pork barrel gift to GM.

I have to say that I am grossly disappointed at the overall bill. If anything subsidize solar production and the build out of battery capacity here in the USA. , lithium mining and REFINING, recycling, these are the things. Overall I just see a giant pork laden debt inducing pile of crap of a bill. If the rest of the bill is as bad as the EV subsidy than scrap the whole thing. Better yet, just pass laws that remove barriers to things like rooftop solar and don't allow energy exports from Tx if the Tx grid is isolated.

I don't understand not allowing energy exports from Canada, or Mexico, or Texas?

 

[TheWalkingDad]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1437044010477146116

 

[2daMoon]

SMR hitting on more of Tony Seba's projections regarding the future costs of energy going to near zero, and how this will affect things going forward.

It seems the concept of eliminating the costs of energy is as hard to grasp as is exponential growth. It is so different from the reality up till now, but, reducing energy costs will reduce the costs of everything, leading to something more like the Star Trek economy where money plays a much reduced role and people can be productive without the burden of "making a living" hanging like the Sword of Damocles over their existence.

Tesla is leading this transition and this is B_A_F

 

[willow_hiller]

Joint Committee on Taxation just released a report on the costs of proposed tax credits: https://www.jct.gov/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=80ba493b-d6cd-4a00-846b-0289376a7dd7

The tab for "Refundable new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit for individuals" only comes to a 10 year total cost of $15.574 billion.

If the EV tax credit gets cut from the bill, it won't be for budgetary reasons; it'll be politics.

 

[willow_hiller]

So, 15.574 Billion divided by say 10K per car is only 1.574 million cars.
That's 157 thousand cars a year.


Some ones math is WAY OFF

I think they meant $15 billion per year. That's still low.

It's not total program cost, it's estimated budgetary effects. So it's taking into account things like multiplier effects (some of the money given as refunds will be spent, and that spending will make its way back into revenue in the form of someone else's income tax). Here's a short piece on their budgetary effect estimation methodology: Revenue Estimating | Joint Committee on Taxation

 

[Tslynk67]

That's a LOT of pre-market manipulation...

 

[UncaNed]

That's a LOT of pre-market manipulation...

What? In which direction???

 

[Tslynk67]

What? In which direction???

Has been capped all morning, then got pushed-down right before open, and now we have a short attack

 

[EVMeister]

TSLA limbo. How low can it go?

 

[cricketman]

Just bought another 70 shares

Seems like a good time, record production, great new FSD update, two new factories about to launch...

 

[Pezpunk]

Has been capped all morning, then got pushed-down right before open, and now we have a short attack

not every downward movement is "manipulation". Tesla got slapped in the face by the Biden administration. that's what's pushing the stock lower this morning.

 

[CLK350]

That's a LOT of pre-market manipulation...

From Friday's sharp down close, today @9:48 AM down -14 or -1.9% - thrills never cease - prepping for a 700 Friday close ? - or (you name it)

 

[cricketman]

not every downward movement is "manipulation". Tesla got slapped in the face by the Biden administration. that's what's pushing the stock lower this morning.

Ultimately the subsidies dont matter too much. Tesla cant make all electric vehicales by themselves

Its the unfairness of the subsidies that hurt (although they have not been signed off yet)