Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hacer]

I'm a huge SpaceX fan. Love what Elon has done with the company and for space technology. But as an investor, I gotta point out that SpaceX is a minnow compared to Tesla. SpaceX annual revenues are around 3 weeks of Tesla revenues. They have about a tenth of the employees. And the TAM of the underlying market (space launch plus satellite internet) is probably around 1-2% of the TAM of Tesla's market (transportation and energy).

Yeah, there's hardly any market for telecommunications. /s

 

[SN_8]

If we actually end the week above 750....which I still find very hard to believe given how much this week of the month is affected by options...then we really are step to explode higher next week.

Curious how this belief has aged throughout the week? Do you still think >750 could indicate liftoff next week? If so, why? Due to the shares that would need to be purchased by MMs?

 

[EVMeister]

Evolution at 740 with more calls now than puts, if they have the firepower then the Hedgies might be inclined to target >735<740, but it's fairly marginal I would say although historically I've observed a preference to protect calls more than puts

The bad news is that puts haven't increased much at 750, but calls have, so expect this to be vigorously defended - we will see today if the Hedgies have been faking it all week...

My absolutely not-an-expert, seriously not advice, reading the tea-leaves, pulled from my a$$ guess: 20% close >735<740, 80% >745<750: do not trade based on this, etc, etc.

View attachment 710449

K thx. Have sold all my shares and will buy back at $750.

/s

 

[SN_8]

Beta button approval conditional on driving history over previous 7 days.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438751064765906945

Expect to see a lot of very chilled Tesla drivers over the next week.

Guilty... Immediately put it into chill mode for the first time ever this morning, and needed to tell my son several times to be quiet while dad focuses on the road

 

[TheWalkingDad]

Good watch on Tesla China demand which may be a concern and also Rob's take on the Lucid EPA numbers and progress against Tesla.

 

[elasalle]

Uncle GJ needs your VOTE !! ( FUNning Secured !)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438838378926010369

 

[Ohmster]

Petty is what petty does.

NASA gives into petty Jeff Bezos demands with $26 million space contract — Stealth Optional

Baby Bezos gets a little treat

apple.news

 

[GOVA]

Beta button approval conditional on driving history over previous 7 days.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438751064765906945

Expect to see a lot of very chilled Tesla drivers over the next week.

Well, I am not getting it for sure. That's fine, you guys go at it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Double the volume of yesterday's open. I'll take it!

Should get a short powerful MMD I would think.

 

[madodel]

It seems so bizarre (to me) that in 2021 there are still people with such limited Tesla vehicle knowledge. I do appreciate that they were openly and genuinely curious.

You need to get out of the mountain fortress more.

 

[82bert]

Same opening everyday lately.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Are you filtering the data you use? That point (min payout) sounds like Max Pain which is still at $700. A $750 close looks like an additional $390 million in payouts (non-hedged).
View attachment 710454

There's two table published on that page, the one you've shown above is the 2nd of the two, which is their max-pain calculation. Their arithmetic escapes me, I have yet to be able to reproduce their sums from the OI data at each Strike value.

I use the 1st of their two tables, which is straight OI, Volume, Strike, and IV (Implied volatility), although at this point tracking Minimum IV is just a curiosity for me. See my screen shot from upthread this morning, I add just 2 colums to the right to do my (very simple) analysis.

Cheers!

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Last month? Did you see the number for NO this month?

The implication is that Tesla will be the highest sales, Model Y is huge here in Europe and the more people see it, the more will sell, excitement much!

View attachment 710434

Record number of ships to europe this month, with a new genius move to using slovenia as quicker destination from china.

 

[Unpilot]

Looks like the dead chickens over my LEFT shoulder did the trick.

Your welcome.

 

[Unpilot]

760 I Smite thee

 

[mongo]

There's two table published on that page, the one you've shown above is the 2nd of the two, which is their max-pain calculation. Their arithmetic escapes me, I have yet to be able to reproduce their sums from the OI data at each Strike value.

I use the 1st of their two tables, which is straight OI, Volume, Strike, and IV (Implied volatility), although at this point tracking Minimum IV is just a curiosity for me. See my screen shot from upthread this morning, I add just 2 colums to the right to do my (very simple) analysis.

Cheers!

Using the data from the first table, I get the same results as their second table.
Want to compare spreadsheets/ calculations in a different thread?

 

[Accident]

SP500 below its 50 DMA. No help from the macros today.

 

[ZachF]

Good watch on Tesla China demand which may be a concern and also Rob's take on the Lucid EPA numbers and progress against Tesla.

China's economy is likely slowing (Evergrande) much more than the CCP wants to admit. Xi has recently made criticizing the economy against the law! (no joke)

Xi is single-handedly undoing decades of Chinese progress. It's really sad.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Base Model 3 delivery for a Philadelphian ordering today is March 2022. Model Y is February. Strange I'm not hearing about this in "the news".

Selling almost exclusively the highest trims for 3Q & 4Q, plus high margin Plaid, PLUS potential FSD realization....these year end numbers are gonna be insanity.

 

[StealthP3D]

The implications for me are that Tesla is defending market share by shipping anything, maybe the right tactic but I worry re the sales we'll see in China next year. Seems to me that Tesla is almost ceding China market until Model 2. We'll see but the EU subsidy, debt, driven EV binge may be something Tesla just could not ignore. Berlin can't open fast enough, this point next year it will be very telling and will give some indication of strategy for China. Of course once FSD hits Europe than that is a bit of a wall. UK will be earlier adopters I bet (because it has to be confusing as heck driving on the wrong side of the road every day- I mean how do they avoid accidents).

Tesla isn't "defending" market share in Europe and "ceding China market" until they release the Model 2. They are primarily selling cars where it will make them the most profit. The main problem is they can't make enough of them to satisfy demand in all areas at once. Tesla does not look at other EV's as "competition" and the only market share they care about is that of the entire vehicle market.

Tesla has already "seeded" the Chinese market (not "ceded"), so sending cars to Europe simply causes China demand to build. It's not giving up on anything (which is the meaning of "ceding"). When you use words like "defending market share" and "ceding China market" it creates the impression that Tesla is competing with others in order to sell as many cars as possible but that is not what is going here.