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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Everybody knows that Tesla is a high-beta stock on down days, and low-beta stock on up days.

We'll get the 9/15/2021 TSLA short interest (SI) tomorrow after the Close (Sep 24). Should be reviling revealing. :p

Naked Shorts Yeah.jpg
 
IV on options continues to absolutely collapse the last 2 months despite tsla trouncing macro performance in this period. There is something deeply broken about this. Either the pricing 2 months ago was horrible or it is bad now but there is no rational explanation for a shockingly good upside performance in the stock to be coupled with a surprisingly bad underperformance in options.

Like amc and the other meme stocks this craziness is not discussed enough. The market is consistently not behaving according to basic rational principals.
What’s to discuss? Discussion typically is done to arrive at a solution/conclusion/compromise/etc…. Discussing that the stock market behaves irrationally because it’s controlled by crooks with no fear of penalty doesn’t actually solve anything or make a any kind of difference.

That means discussion of the topic (which actually has been discussed to death multiple times) is nothing more than an exercise in futile circles.

Buy shares. Hold shares. Win.

Play options, require endless, futile, circular discussion, stress over irrationality and ride an emotional roller coaster, some times you’re the windshield, mostly you’re the bug, rinse and repeat, die early and dirt poor from a heart attack. Lose.

FYI, there’s a thread for what you want already. Go visit it.
 
We are still below where we were last Friday. Ford is doing better than TSLA this week, which makes sense, because we are about to have a record quarter, and they have a recall for windshields and roofs coming off....
Any company's stock ticker can look good over an immediate short term period. Look no further than Evergrande's share price today.
Screen Shot 2021-09-23 at 10.48.50 AM.png


No worries here on TMC. We know which way TSLA is headed. Ford (and GM)? Not so much.

Screen Shot 2021-09-23 at 10.46.22 AM.png

(2 year duration)
 
Any company's stock ticker can look good over an immediate short term period. Look no further than Evergrande's share price today.
View attachment 713108

No worries here on TMC. We know which way TSLA is headed. Ford (and GM)? No so much.

View attachment 713103
(2 year duration)
I know. Still funny though (how main stream investors and analysts still don't get that TSLA is undervalued, and F and GM will be fighting to avoid bankruptcy).
 
/rant on

Why criticize a tweet level response to an ELI5 question when it is accurate (of not the best wording)? Would on_tesla (or anyone) ever have responded to OP had Sawyer not done so.

We are not a pack of bullies/ mean girls here to laugh at others (unless someone is clearly a bad actor, then claws out).

Inital question:
Is yield battery performance? No (other than compared against Pass/ Fail criteria)
Is yield speed of production? No (but is influenced by it)
A cell (or sub system) that meets quality standards is good
A cell (or sub system) that has to be thrown out is bad

For clarity, imagine "that step" was "that step's output", which aligns with better step -> better yield -> more good cells.
Totally agree. To expand on that, there has been a tendency here of some posters picking on people who provide content (Troy, Sawyer...) but also make mistakes/have weaknesses. People are not either totally good or bad, noone is perfect. I much prefer to have criticisim of certain statements that are wrong/misleading so we can filter the content that is helpful instead of distructive criticism of a person as a whole. /rant off
 
I’m up 6.6m selling options back in January when there was obviously an EV mini bubble and tsla IV was 75+%. it continues to astound me how bad people are at this. The most shocking thing is the worst least impressive students flock to options.
Well, then. Since you’re clearly an expert then why do you need more discussion on the topic? Clearly, there’s nothing much more for you to learn. So maybe start your own thread in the forum and edjumacate all us pleebs.
 
--- SHORTSVILLE TIMES: BREAKING NEWZ ---

Rivian Hedges Investment in Electronic Pickup Truck.

It is unknown at this time if Tesla Autopilot was involved in the crash. Tesla did not immediately respond to requests for Autopilot data.


Rivian-crash-scaled.jpeg


/S

The first question that pops up whenever a prototype vehicle crashes, especially like this, is whether it was the result of a malfunction within the car. In the case of the R1T, it could be something like the throttle becoming jammed or the brakes failing.

Yeah. No. That is not the first question. 🙄
 
Such as stupid take by the NYT. It will keep costing more to operated ICE because that late adopters will have to pay for a giant gas infrastructure that is supported by fewer customers. The transition keep accelerating, at on a per segment basis.
I've had Yale and Duke grads asking literally the same thing last week, saying it should be a law to keep the old cars just like in Cuba. Shocking how similar so I guess there is some discussion somewhere on the interwebs where this is an idea. It is a terrible stupid shortsighted perspective by folks that don't understand recycling.
 
The first question that pops up whenever a prototype vehicle crashes, especially like this, is whether it was the result of a malfunction within the car. In the case of the R1T, it could be something like the throttle becoming jammed or the brakes failing.

Yeah. No. That is not the first question. 🙄
Carburetors were stuck wide open for sure!
 
We are still below where we were last Friday. Ford is doing better than TSLA this week, which makes sense, because we are about to have a record quarter, and they have a recall for windshields and roofs coming off....

You realize Ford, Rivian, Lucid, and so on doing well "stock-wise" is a benefit to Tesla and it's valuation right? Regardless of what you think of those actual companies, which I mean we all know for Ford it's a matter of "when", not "if" they go insolvent, but them getting high valuations or their stock doing better than Tesla's only makes Tesla seem cheap when new data comes out such as P/D numbers or earnings.

Remember folks we're at the point where metrics and fundamentals actually are effected by Tesla's performance. We don't need to speculation on Tesla's potential or what margins/profits are going to be from now on. Q2 earnings, while completely ignored by Wall St, were a fundamental game changer for the stock.

If Analysts want to fall on their sword by underestimating Q3 earnings or Q3 P/D (like we just saw in a bear putting a Sell on the stock today)....then fine by me. From our own calculations here on this board, they're underestimating Q3 earnings by about 50%. They're going to get a rude awakening come October.......and then again in Jan on Q4 earnings.....rinse and repeat.
 
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You realize Ford, Rivian, Lucid, and so on doing well "stock-wise" is a benefit to Tesla and it's valuation right? Regardless of what you think of those actual companies, which I mean we all know for Ford it's a matter of "when", not "if" they go insolvent, but them getting high valuations or their stock doing better than Tesla's only makes Tesla seem cheap when new data comes out such as P/D numbers or earnings.

Remember folks we're at the point where metrics and fundamentals actually are effected by Tesla's performance. We don't need to speculation on Tesla's potential or what margins/profits are going to be from now on. Q2 earnings, while completely ignored by Wall St, were a fundamental game changer of the stock.

If Analysts want to fall on their sword by underestimating Q3 earnings or Q3 P/D (like we just saw in a bear putting a Sell on the stock today)....then fine by me. They're going to get a rude awakening come October.......and then again in Jan on Q4 earnings.....rinse and repeat.
Agreed. When Rivian and Lucid have sky high market caps without selling a single vehicle, it makes TSLA look cheap.
 
Congrats! Someday you will have this cool new technology called the Internet. You will be amazed.
You don’t get any more rural than the mountain. I got my priorities right. No power, no plumbing, not even a roof yet, BUT I got Starlink (which I power with a portable battery), because my contractor and his workers need incentive and nothing more powerful than free Wifi in the middle of nowhere.
 
I wasn't advocating that you try selling options (although I believe that every investor should learn how to, since it's much simpler in practice than in theory). I was only speculating that (unlike with stocks where we're essentially powerless), the retail community might actually have enough critical mass to have an effect on the options market.
I get where you’re coming from but personally feel holding TSLA by retail is a powerful strategy from both the individual and the market perspectives.

For individuals, holding allows you to take a long term view. It also insulates you from the short term manipulations of those with access to higher execution speeds and more ways to slice and dice trades. While "simply" holding doesn’t make you invulnerable, it makes you far less vulnerable to extraneous influences than the options trader.

From a market perspective, recall the summer of 2018 when there was a concerted effort to "short-to-kill" Tesla. I held knowing of and aiming to combat this effort even though much of my position was down by half at that point. Those retail investors who did as I did, and a good number of them are here, helped Tesla weather a dangerous storm.

Powerless? I think not—these are not small things.

As I’ve said, I’m not against options (folks here have even influenced me to have level II trading enabled on one of my investment accounts, though I’ve not done any trading). I don’t trade because of the opportunity cost: I feel my attention is better allocated elsewhere than options trading demands.

tl;dr: 🐢 vs 🐇