Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CLK350]

Here's a PBS video about new town being built within what was a huge horse ranch in southwest Florida. It's powered by a large array of solar panels placed near the community. Every home garage comes with the proper wiring and outlet to charge an electric vehicle.

Kitson & Partners | Babcock Ranch

 

[Nocturnal]

Another day helping out with deliveries. A couple of observations (from here in the Midwest US).

1. Perhaps it's because it was during the week, but I saw far more older buyers than I expected. I don't know why I feel this way considering my local club has a solid mix of ages but I guess I expect 30-40s mostly.
2. The cars being delivered looked really good. Even looking closely I don't see any body panel or paint issues.
3. Sales staff from all the surrounding locations that aren't delivery centers were brought in to help with deliveries, in addition to request for club members to help all this month.
4. SC manager said that this Saturday was going to be their busiest day ever for deliveries. (Friday will be busy as well, with 30 deliveries scheduled over the lunch hours)

 

[Mengy]

In case you were looking, I found the dumbest thing on the internet for today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1440943033176969221

But......why?

 

[nativewolf]

Is humanity legit getting stupider ?

Did anyone replacing the wheels on their Model T with horse legs, 100 years ago, because legs were more familiar ?

Note to self: I should invent a physical rotary dial attachment for iPhones.

Wait....a physical dial attachment for the iphone.... BRILLIANT. That would be the funniest thing ever. Now you have to do it. You just have to do it, how hard can it be.

 

[RobDickinson]

I'm now convinced Germany doesnt deserve the model Y and Tesla should ship those cars to New Zealand (obviously fixing the steering wheel problem first).

 

[jhm]

You need a lot more miles than that to get a statistically significant conclusion, because that zero-death outcome could've been a fluke. This is a common statistical problem where you're trying to compare the likelihood of extremely rare events between two populations.

The Master Plan, Part Deux says "We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km)". If you do that, the expected number of deaths over 6 billion miles at 1.2 deaths per mile on average is approximately 72 deaths for the human-driven group. This is a large enough number of expected events that moderate improvements can be detected with high confidence. Tesla and NHTSA need to avoid giving a green light to Level 4 autonomy based on luck having caused a false positive. For instance, if FSD is actually 20% worse than the average human driver, the binomial distribution still says there's a 5% chance that FSD will get a good run for 6 billion miles and have less deaths than 72. Unleash the robotaxis only to find out later as more data comes in that they were more dangerous after all, and now a bunch of extra property damage, injuries and death.

This is probably a big reason why the MPP2 says, "Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed." If the difference in performance is truly that large, then over any reasonable range of statistical uncertainty in a 6 billion mile sample you'll still see a clear improvement of about 3x or more over human performance.

If they can go 250 million miles without a death, this would reject the hypothesis that the rate is 1.2 or more per 100 million mile with a 5% significance level. This a based on a Poission distribution with expectation 3 deaths in 250M miles.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Thanks to the a run of 12 wins in 14 games, and 20 of last 25, the home team is now a season high 9 games above 0.500. The momentum is on their side as they prepare for the end of season playoffs. The loyal season ticket holders knew this day would eventually come and look forward to Team Tesla having a good run the rest of the season with a healthy roster and two draft picks joining the team later this year.

Today
Score:	753.64
Margin of W/L:	1.70
Attendance:	11,929,792
High - Low:	10.28
Season
Record:	96-87
Total margin of wins:	1,543.45
Total margin of losses:	-1,495.48
YTD gain/loss:	47.97	6.80%
Price/52 week high	83.70%
Best Win:	110.58	Mar 9
Worst Loss:	-68.83	Jan 11
Last 10:	8-2
Streak:	L1
Avg margin of victory:	16.08
Avg margin of defeat:	-17.19
Avg Attendance:	17,252,946
Avg Attendance of Last 10:	18,761,438
Avg High - Low:	30.09
Avg H - L of Last 10:	18.54

 

[WattsHappening]

Thanks to the a run of 12 wins in 14 games, and 20 of last 25, the home team is now a season high 9 games above 0.500. The momentum is on their side as they prepare for the end of season playoffs. The loyal season ticket holders knew this day would eventually come and look forward to Team Tesla having a good run the rest of the season with a healthy roster and two draft picks joining the team later this year.

Today
Score:	753.64
Margin of W/L:	1.70
Attendance:	11,929,792
High - Low:	10.28
Season
Record:	96-87
Total margin of wins:	1,543.45
Total margin of losses:	-1,495.48
YTD gain/loss:	47.97	6.80%
Price/52 week high	83.70%
Best Win:	110.58	Mar 9
Worst Loss:	-68.83	Jan 11
Last 10:	8-2
Streak:	L1
Avg margin of victory:	16.08
Avg margin of defeat:	-17.19
Avg Attendance:	17,252,946
Avg Attendance of Last 10:	18,761,438
Avg High - Low:	30.09
Avg H - L of Last 10:	18.54

Where've you been? It's great to see the game recap again!

 

[Prunesquallor]

In case you were looking, I found the dumbest thing on the internet for today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1440943033176969221

Can’t Tesla OTA brick a car that has had something this stupid done to it?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Where've you been? It's great to see the game recap again!

Thanks! Glad you enjoy them. I've mostly been lazy about updating my spreadsheet

 

[capster]

Is humanity legit getting stupider ?

Did anyone replacing the wheels on their Model T with horse legs, 100 years ago, because legs were more familiar ?

Note to self: I should invent a physical rotary dial attachment for iPhones.

I hate to break it to you, but the geniuses at Ford are way ahead of you.

 

[CLK350]

[ Hopefully this is not going to be thrown off to the OT thread - the political environment is relevant to Tesla's investors. This may appear to be going against the bull thesis - even though I am all in and bullish, these developments (the weird EV bill and the NASA recent doings) do give me pause - still, I am optimistic Elon and his advisers will figure out a way out of this - a PR department or lobbying push might be necessary, or not - recall Google and Apple eventually did get lobbyists - thinking of it as a way to "educate" the leadership, sad state of our current state of affairs ]

Is the current Biden administration anti Tesla (more than just for Union votes, and hybrids aka legacy carmakers) and also overtly anti Space X (more than just Biden being asleep) ?

Bill Nelson, appointed by our political leadership to head NASA essentially demoted Kathy Lueders (retaliation for awarding SpaceX the Lunar Landing Contract?), and put a hold to the Lunar Landing contract till November (Bezos' lawsuit). He also put Jim Free (Old Space vet) in charge of new ventures (ESDMD), ie where Space X's next moves are.

This is nuts. Our own US administration (or the entities behind all political parties really) are doing all they can to slow down Tesla and SpaceX, some of the most successful technological /industrial companies in the world. China is Tesla's strongest supporter, although it's in an undeclared cyberwar, with Russia, against the US. Russia depends on oil &gas .. so maybe not a bad idea for Tesla to consider Russia for its next Giga factory (batteries esp). Chess game. China is also challenging the US economic dominance, essentially the USD (the SWIFT system of payments) with their digital currency (DCEP)*

SpaceX Starship being hindered by FAA & NASA a puppet of Old Space

Bill Nelson's sweet covered turd corporate jargon announcing Old Space retaliation and backwards reaction

"NASA has split an existing mission directorate into two separate ones focusing on exploration systems and space operations, respectively.

The space agency said Tuesday its current Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate will divide to support a growing number of low-Earth orbit space operations and deep space programs, including Artemis.

The two new organizations, known as the Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate (ESDMD) and Space Operations Mission Directorate, will provide oversight on their respective areas with increased focus.

Jim Free, a returning NASA executive, will oversee exploration systems development as ESDMD's associate administrator. Kathy Lueders, who has managed many programs for NASA, will lead the Space Operations Mission Directorate that focuses on launch and space efforts including low-Earth orbit commercialization and the International Space Station.

"This reorganization positions NASA and the United States for success as we venture farther out into the cosmos than ever before, all while supporting the continued commercialization of space and research on the International Space Station,” said Bill Nelson, NASA Administrator. "

 

[NZ10K]

I did not give earlier notice at TMC of this Twitter poll, so as not to skew the results. The poll has expired, so here are the final results.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439338266650624007

I'd guess your twitter followers is probably a group of highly concentrated EV enthusiasts, so the result could be highly skewed. Still a very fun result to watch.

 

[RobDickinson]

I hate to break it to you, but the geniuses at Ford are way ahead of you.

View attachment 713332

In a strange turn of fate thats the only reliable bit on the mach-e...

 

[Paracelsus]

Thanks for sharing that informative SpaceX/NASA relationship post @CLK350 - and I agree it is 100% relevant to this board. And yes, when I read your post I didn’t say ‘fudge’ either

 

[Etna]

In case you were looking, I found the dumbest thing on the internet for today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1440943033176969221

Paging @Paracelsus

 

[AimStellar]

The Inspiration4 crew brought to space a copy of TIME Magazine highlighting the Inspiration4 mission to space, which all four crew members signed while in space. I just won the auction for it, thanks to $TSLA, with 100% going to benefit St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. Hard to think of a better cause. Charitybuzz: TIME Magazine Autographed by Inspiration4 Crew Flown to S... - Lot 2285619

 

[RobDickinson]

Nice congrats!

 

[22522]

[ Hopefully this is not going to be thrown off to the OT thread - the political environment is relevant to Tesla's investors. This may appear to be going against the bull thesis - even though I am all in and bullish, these developments (the weird EV bill and the NASA recent doings) do give me pause - still, I am optimistic Elon and his advisers will figure out a way out of this - a PR department or lobbying push might be necessary, or not - recall Google and Apple eventually did get lobbyists - thinking of it as a way to "educate" the leadership, sad state of our current state of affairs ]

Is the current Biden administration anti Tesla (more than just for Union votes, and hybrids aka legacy carmakers) and also overtly anti Space X (more than just Biden being asleep) ?

Bill Nelson, appointed by our political leadership to head NASA essentially demoted Kathy Lueders (retaliation for awarding SpaceX the Lunar Landing Contract?), and put a hold to the Lunar Landing contract till November (Bezos' lawsuit). He also put Jim Free (Old Space vet) in charge of new ventures (ESDMD), ie where Space X's next moves are.

This is nuts. Our own US administration (or the entities behind all political parties really) are doing all they can to slow down Tesla and SpaceX, some of the most successful technological /industrial companies in the world. China is Tesla's strongest supporter, although it's in an undeclared cyberwar, with Russia, against the US. Russia depends on oil &gas .. so maybe not a bad idea for Tesla to consider Russia for its next Giga factory (batteries esp). Chess game. China is also challenging the US economic dominance, essentially the USD (the SWIFT system of payments) with their digital currency (DCEP)*

SpaceX Starship being hindered by FAA & NASA a puppet of Old Space

Bill Nelson's sweet covered turd corporate jargon announcing Old Space retaliation and backwards reaction

"NASA has split an existing mission directorate into two separate ones focusing on exploration systems and space operations, respectively.

The space agency said Tuesday its current Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate will divide to support a growing number of low-Earth orbit space operations and deep space programs, including Artemis.

The two new organizations, known as the Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate (ESDMD) and Space Operations Mission Directorate, will provide oversight on their respective areas with increased focus.

Jim Free, a returning NASA executive, will oversee exploration systems development as ESDMD's associate administrator. Kathy Lueders, who has managed many programs for NASA, will lead the Space Operations Mission Directorate that focuses on launch and space efforts including low-Earth orbit commercialization and the International Space Station.

"This reorganization positions NASA and the United States for success as we venture farther out into the cosmos than ever before, all while supporting the continued commercialization of space and research on the International Space Station,” said Bill Nelson, NASA Administrator. "

Thank you for posting this. Let's tie it into Tesla a bit more.

When reading the screen shots of the documents, the green house gas emissions seemed to be somehow motivating (at least mentioned).

The positive path is to pay a carbon tax with each launch and launch as many as you want. I think Elon has stated something that leads there.

The negative path is to consider that offshoring was the selected way for previous American companies to find cooperative employees. This offshoring to find cooperation is how China got their start. Management had little choice.

Elon will make that off-shoring choice if he has to, as mentioned in the video. Going to Mars is really important to him.

So here is the path:

1. Global carbon tax (cap trade, all that stuff)
2. Tesla can sell credits to SpaceX rather than to Stellantis
3. Musk incorporated stays in the US.

The obvious alternative is to move somewhere else.

Ed

 

[Dancing Lemur]

View attachment 713349

The Inspiration4 crew brought to space a copy of TIME Magazine highlighting the Inspiration4 mission to space, which all four crew members signed while in space. I just won the auction for it, thanks to $TSLA, with 100% going to benefit St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. Hard to think of a better cause. Charitybuzz: TIME Magazine Autographed by Inspiration4 Crew Flown to S... - Lot 2285619

Ouch, that shippping & handling though. (Do they charge by the ”p”?)