Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

i don't think we have seen this being a guarantee. I know there have been elon tweets, but nobody has said that "anyone who buys FSD now will get the HW3 at some point in the future for free" We're still parsing words and statements and that last point - as much as it has been brought up in many places before - just hasn't been stated.

Having bought FSD for 2K on Sunday, I'm for SURE hoping it means we'll definitely get the HW3 hardware update for free. It will make the entire AP experience (regardless of when FSD is available in the wild - which will be a while yet) better.

yeah, that's the problem with using twitter: it doesn't facilitate clear communication. But it seems pretty clear to me:

"...will come with HW3 upgrade long-term" -- only implies without additional fee, it does not explicitly say that
Elon Musk on Twitter

but going back a bit further:

"Those who order full self-driving get the upgrade at no cost."
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Pras]

Musk should learn from Bezos and buy a media company. See how Bezos is using WPost to mess with National Enquirer

 

[Remus]

- Elon does not respect the SEC. And now, apparently he does not respect the agreement that he made or the court that he made it in.

Only dictators like Putin demands their citizens to "respect" the government.

 

[Nocturnal]

Just one question for you, what are you a member of a owner tesla club If we don't suport Tesla ?

He isn't. Just clearly here to troll.

yeah, that's the problem with using twitter: it doesn't facilitate clear communication. But it seems pretty clear to me:

"...will come with HW3 upgrade long-term" -- only implies without additional fee, it does not explicitly say that
Elon Musk on Twitter

but going back a bit further:

"Those who order full self-driving get the upgrade at no cost."
Elon Musk on Twitter

It's as good of a guarantee as anything else. They can't sell software for cars without providing the hardware upgrade required to enable it. ​

 

[humbaba]

He isn't. Just clearly here to troll.

It's as good of a guarantee as anything else. They can't sell software for cars without providing the hardware upgrade required to enable it. ​

True. And dismissing it as "just a tweet" is just silly. If tweets were never material WTF is this SEC mess about? And, not only that, but further stated in the earnings call as @mongo pointed out. While Tesla could argue that the $$$ for FSD was for the software option and that hardware cost more (I've seen companies do worse) there are specific statements by the CEO to the contrary.

There's nothing certain in life except death, taxes, and the SEC's corruption, but barring absolute certainty this is as good as it gets.

 

[neroden]

Except that Musk did not write - IN QUOTATIONS - "will make 500k". It was about 500k. The SEC is misquoting Musk, leaving out a critical adjective which hurts their argument, and doing so in quotation marks, as though it's a direct quote of Musk's tweet.

Again, I'm trying not to post, but isn't this grounds for finding the SEC in contempt of court?

Making falsified quotations in legal filings is an attempt to defraud the court.

Are we seriously supposed to presume good faith here? I hope Musk's lawyer rips them to shreds over this.

After that, I would request that the SEC be sanctioned for attempting to defraud the court. But then I'm vindictive.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Yeah, this is the first substantial bounce since the $295 levels days ago, and I'm wondering what the trigger is.

$263.5 isn't a particularly significant technical level that I can see, macros are not swinging such levels, so this smells like some sort of hidden fundamental news being traded on - or simply short price action is exhausted?

@tivoboy or @Papafox might have a better idea.

Lower daily bollinger band is at 263 (see below link and Papafox thread). But the fact is that the bottom is a range, not one number. And that range is approx from 250-280. It can bottom anywhere in there, plus or minus a few points. All it needs is a trigger (like today's news). If one is looking to buy (or cover), don't think a specific number. I've seen technical analysts harp on specific numbers too often that they miss the boat. I have been buying long term calls throughout the sub 290 range at every 5 dollar interval. Still possible that we could go lower and double bottom.

Also if you're looking for technical levels, there are numerous indicators: daily, weekly, hourly bollinger bands. Similarly for moving averages and so many diff averages: 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 week/day/hour/... And pivot points. On and on. With so many indicators, there is bound to be a technical level every 10 points, and those levels are approx. So the stock is always at some technical level in all honesty. This is why you have to take TA with a huge grain of salt. I do look at to help guide me, but I also consider numerous other factors: fundamentals, upcoming news, etc. It's just one tool in the arsenal. Have to look at the whole picture.

(As another example, there is a gap fill at 260.90. But there is no guarantee that will be hit. There is still a gap fill around 239-240. Couple of years ago when the stock was bottoming around that range (before shooting to 380), it came to 242 several times but never filled the gap.)

TSLA - Tesla Inc.

 

[Tenable]

I have this thought that I cannot refute by myself, so help me out...
What would happen if Tesla announced they are going to pay a symbolic dividend each positive quarter?
I believe this would cause all lent shares to be recalled every end of Q just so that shareholders can write down the profit.
I'd be more than happy with mere $0.01/share dividend and it would cost tesla less than $2M per Q.
If it would really cause shorties out every end of Q I'd say that is $2M well spent.

I cannot believe I'm the first one who thought about this so, where exactly am I wrong with this?

I believe if you are short a dividend paying stock that you are required to pay the dividend in lieu of the original shareholder. So shorts would not have to scramble every quarter. Instead, they would simply pay for .01 per share. It would have basically no effect.

 

[neroden]

SEC requested no evidentiary hearing. Musk's attorneys can still request one. If neither want one (e.g. neither dispute the basic facts, just the interpretation), then the judge is free to decide the next step, which could be a ruling or further hearings to post followup questions to the two sides. If an evidentiary hearing is sought, then that would be the next step.

AFAIK.

Musk's lawyers have to demand an evidentiary hearing. At this, they can prove that Musk's tweet said "around 500K", not "will make 500K", demonstrating that the SEC lied (in quotation marks!) about what the tweet said. Then they can request that the SEC lawyers be found in contempt of court. Since their action was totally 100% indefensible, the SEC lawyers who misquoted the tweet will be found in contempt of court. I'm not sure what the next step is after that, but that's a good start.

 

[MP3Mike]

Breaking...

If that's not BAF, I don't know what is!

Tesla on Twitter

View attachment 388065

So is this Tesla sharing with the world that demand is "off the hook"?

Which makes me think that the release of the Y could actually have been to reduce demand on the Model 3...

 

[tivoboy]

Stop moving the goal posts

not tweets
somebody said it...

great, can you point me to that statement?

 

[neroden]

Time to sue the SEC for fraud for recklessly making a series of false and misleading claims about Elon in an attempt to mislead a US judge which resulted in significant market confusion and disruption.

I'll sign on. I believe you have to sue the individual officials, not the SEC.

(The legal concept is that the sovereign government itself can do no wrong, but the individuals can abuse their power and do things which the government does not authorize them to do; for instance, they are not authorized to lie and commit fraud in court filings. They are taking actions *under the color of law*, but they are not actually taking actions which are within their legal power; they get sued in their individual capacity.)

 

[aubreymcfato]

I really can't believe what I'm seeing.
Tesla Registration Stats
New record broken! 299 Teslas and counting...
I mean, Oslo has already 803 Model 3! Bergen 306!
They count more than Southern Europe altogether.
The Norwegian royal fund should buy TSLA as crazy now, and act as a unified national shareholder for all his citizens.
Then they should ask their wealthiest citizens to chip in and buy themselves.
Then WS would have another powerful enemy.

 

[anthonyj]

So is this Tesla sharing with the world that demand is "off the hook"?

Which makes me think that the release of the Y could actually have been to reduce demand on the Model 3...

Demand is so crazy that they are keeping the prices low. Makes sense /s

I think this extension to Wednesday was planned from the start, it’s Tesla’s way of marketing. They did the same thing with unlimited supercharging last year. Gives people on the fence a last chance to buy at the promo price

I doubt there is a genuine demand problem, but Tesla’s tweet makes zero sense

 

[neroden]

SEC v Musk - Letter Asking for SurReply (Provided by Dan Ravicher).pdf

There is a request for follow up response from Musk’s lawyers.

The SEC is looking *bad*. Musk's lawyer made two citations:

"It is improper in this district and this circuit to introduce new arguments in reply."

"[A] party may not attempt to cure deficiencies in its moving papers by including new evidence in its reply to opposition papers[.]")

Musk's lawyer politely asked to sur-reply to the SEC's new arguments and new factual claims (most of which are false!) which were improperly introduced in the SEC's reply. But the Judge has the option of sanctioning the SEC for violating court rules instead, of course.

OK, I really gotta stop posting.

 

[Zaxxon]

Wonder if Tesla wants to report in their delivery update on April 1, 2, 3, or 4 that they have already sold out Q2 production. Not sure if that's even realistic, but would be real nice for this bat sh*t crazy a** TSLA price right now.

If I order an X right now Tesla says I'll get it in March. They're nowhere near selling out Q2.

Meanwhile in Norway.
232 deliveries and the day is not over yet.
Tesla Registration Stats

Q1 will become the best quarter in history for Norway tomorrow morning.

 

[humbaba]

Demand is so crazy that they are keeping the prices low. Makes sense /s

I think this extension to Wednesday was planned from the start, it’s Tesla’s way of marketing. They did the same thing with unlimited supercharging last year. Gives people on the fence a last chance to buy at the promo price

I doubt there is a genuine demand problem, but Tesla’s tweet makes zero sense

actually it makes absolute sense:

if you advertise price $Y until midnight Monday and you are not able to process all of the orders you can say "tough luck" to anyone who got a "page not responding" due to order volume -- but you could run afoul of litigious customers who insist on getting the advertised price because they did in fact attempt to place the order.

Earlier a question was posited as to how there could be a load issue on the server when Tesla fielded such a large number of reservations for the M3. But that is apples and oranges: these are not reservations to place an order, they are orders for a specific configuration. And serving out the configuration pages/scripts is definitely more load than just a simple reservation page.

 

[Todd Burch]

If I order an X right now Tesla says I'll get it in March. They're nowhere near selling out Q2.

I was primarily thinking about Model 3 orders. Of course that would require ~100K orders that haven't been processed yet. Not sure how many orders the big price drop would have secured.

 

[Nocturnal]

Demand is so crazy that they are keeping the prices low. Makes sense /s

I think this extension to Wednesday was planned from the start, it’s Tesla’s way of marketing. They did the same thing with unlimited supercharging last year. Gives people on the fence a last chance to buy at the promo price

I doubt there is a genuine demand problem, but Tesla’s tweet makes zero sense

Yeah, it makes perfect sense. If they know people are trying to get orders in to receive the low price and they are unable to process those orders it's a PR move to keep the prices low for those customers.

 

[Remus]

Stopped by to see what the other side is thinking and just had to laugh. You people dont think the following things are extremely obvious:
- $420 funding secured was an unsubstantiated stock pump. There was never any evidence that he had anything close to funding secured.
- Elon agreed to the settlement rather than fight and face whatever consequences those were. He decided abiding by the agreement was the best thing for him and Tesla.
- Settlement said he had to get "pre-approval" of any communications that could reasonably move the stock.
- He tweeted numerous tweets that could move the stock, but one in particular where he said Tesla "will make around $500K (cars) in 2019". The stock could reasonably move based on a production forecast that is both higher and later in the year than previous guidance. You might not thing it is, but Wedbush used this forecast to update their investment recommendation so unless you think they are completely unreasonable, then the tweet affected the stock.
- None of the tweets were pre-approved. Not one per Elon.
- So his violation of the court approved agreement is clear.
- First amendment rights have no application to commercial speech. None. Its ridiculous to even raise the idea.
- Elon does not respect the SEC. And now, apparently he does not respect the agreement that he made or the court that he made it in.

I dont know what his punishment will be, but his last one was so small that he said paying $40M was worth it. This one is going to be a lot harsher.

Luckily U.S. is still mostly a free country NOT a dictatorship like you described. The court ruled that Insulting the police officer is legal. Looking bad does not mean you got to be punished by law!

U.S. Court Affirms Right to Flip Off Cops – Why It's Not Always Legal

On the other hand winnie the pooh is banned in China and Putin demands citizens to respect government or face punishment.