Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Antares Nebula]

Some data points directly from Tesla:

• Tesla HQ appears to be very happy with MY preorders

Where did you hear this (honest question)? Did I miss a tweet or something?

 

[Opus BC fan]

I don't think we'll go private, at least not without a solution for small/overseas investors. Elon personally told me that this one one of his major reasons for not going private at 420.

And I am very grateful that he kept the small but dedicated investors like me in mind in that decision. It would have been much easier for him to just go private. I know that. That is one of the major reasons I have for being in and being long with Tesla.

 

[lklundin]

Given Elon's guidance on the Q4 call is equivalent to 400-600k total production, I'd guess that's what Elon meant. If he'd said "around half a million" rather than than "around 500k" i'm sure what he meant would have been a lot more obvious to the SEC. There is a heavy tendency towards character efficient language on Twitter though unfortunately, often at the expense of clarity. A similar cause of the "funding secured" tweet problems.

Yes. In the very narrow field of numerical analysis (i.e. the unsavory branch of mathematics that deals with measured numbers and counting machines none of which have unlimited precision) the two first numbers have the same meaning which is different from the third one:
500k
0.500M
0.5M

The first two are accurate to three digits, so covers the interval from 499.5k (endpoint included) to 500.5k (endpoint not included).
The third one is accurate to only 1 digit, so covers the much longer interval from 0.45M (endpoint included) to 0.55M (endpoint not included).

It would be comical if the SEC tried to apply this highly specific terminology to Twitter, which by design makes it difficult to communicate with that kind of precision.

 

[anthonyj]

Buying a few $300 weekly calls as a gamble... who knows, maybe Apple will plant a seed in Tesla tomorrow

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Where did you hear this (honest question)? Did I miss a tweet or something?

Honest answer:

Two sources from different regions and job roles, cross-checked

It's legit, otherwise I'd mark it as speculation.

Keep in mind though that Tesla employees do chitchat with each other – yes, even across borders; especially within local socio-cultural clusters like Benelux, DACH, Scandinavia. So this could very well be just rumors being spread via an international Whatsapp groups.

On the other hand, Tesla is just like any other sizeable company: You probably know someone who knows someone who directly reports to Elon.

But you should also ask yourself why anyone would want to spread literally false-positive news internally!? Wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

 

[Duffer]

Question for those Maxwell shareholders on TMC.
1) Is there any FUD directed at you regarding the possible acquisition?
2) Is there sentiment of resist the merger so you can make more money licensing the tech to all companies vs being part of Tesla?

I'm asking since it doesn't appear that the shareholders are interested in the merger.

Question for TMC
How does the failure to acquire Maxwell affect Tesla in the long run?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Right, but it's fewer cells and not simply software limited LR pack with LR amount of kWH. The overall external size of the "pack" is probbaly the same, but with fewer cells, there is probably some space and also probably fewer (what do they call them, that hold the actual batteries together) and then fewer cable harnesses. Etc.

I don't know that this was confirmed ever.
Elon confirmed that SR is really different pack, so I wonder if my memory is faltering, or you got those two confused/misread?

 

[mongo]

However, Elon almost always talks production rate not production totals. I’m fact, the later clarification to his initial tweet specifically states that he meant rate.

Especially since he explicitly said that he talks in terms of peak rate on the ARK podcast.

 

[EVNow]

Incredible demand, or time to reboot the 486 under Elon's desk?

My take is that the design studio was not designed / tested for high volume. They probably never did any volume related perf testing at all ! After all the expectation was there would be some 5k to 10k orders per week i.e. one order every one or two minutes.

 

[schonelucht]

Perhaps, but should it reasonably be fraud on your part if you’ve been so deceived?

Yes it absolutely is. The issue, at that level of negotiations, there is no recourse. So that's why it's imperative that you do your due diligence.

 

[JRP3]

Please show me what early access to EAP or full self driving I have received? We early supporters are simply being overcharged and punished for giving Tesla a free loan. The least they could do is honor their promises to us or make it right.

Since this has been extensively discussed I'll just say I do understand some of your frustration.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

No. It's just Tesla using the old used car sales tactic. There was no particular malfunction on the website last night at all.

They didn’t say there was malfunction.

 

[mekberg]

OT to market action but relevant to part of my thesis: Tesla makes great products but most of the general population has no idea yet.

An acquaintance of mine bought a new Audi A7 Prestige less than a month ago. It recently needed a new software update which required a 4 hour service appointment. He was apparently really happy they had a newish service loaner for him to use in the meantime.

Yes, this is 2019 and only Tesla can do OTA updates.

Also, #dontpanic

 

[Carl Raymond]

the people I spoke to were aware of this, lets get this thread back on track though. my only point is to take people's legal opinions, who aren't lawyers, with many grains of salt. confirmation bias is a hell of a thing, thats all.

I am not a lawyer, but I can see a problem with claiming somebody tweeted “will make 500K” when they actually tweeted “about 500K”. I think most people can. Open and shut case, right there.

It’s the sort of truth twisting stunt you might try in a high school debate. In a court of law judges love having something as black and white as this on which to base the verdict. It makes their job easy and their ruling incontrovertible.

Edit: Note that there are two zeroes in 500, just one significant figure, thus about 500K is anywhere from 450K to 550K. The two expressions are very different.

 

[lklundin]

• 1st, we should confirm when the last ship departed for China (since those too are classified as Int'l VINs)

Most recent shipment for China was Asian King, departed Pier 80 on March 10, scheduled to arrive in Tianjin on March 24.

 

[Antares Nebula]

The Judge granted the SEC motion to file a reply the same day it was requested. Late last night Elon’s Attorneys filed a request for a sur-reply, I find it interesting that the Judge has yet to accept that request. Perhaps, she is currently judging the case on its merits, and may issue a summary dismissal to not waste any more of the courts time. Probably a very low likelihood, and I am not a lawyer so have no idea if such a thing would be possible. The optimist in me wants to think that is what is happening though.

That would be, how shall we say.... DOPE!

We can dream for a little while I suppose.

 

[jerry33]

They didn’t say there was malfunction.

Receiving a 503 error isn't technically a malfunction because that's how the software is supposed to act when the server is too busy. (No, I didn't order, so I don't know if anyone actually received a 503 error).

 

[EVNow]

Receiving a 503 error isn't technically a malfunction because that's how the software is supposed to act when the server is too busy. (No, I didn't order, so I don't know if anyone actually received a 503 error).

It is a malfunction - the server is not supposed to get too busy. Esp., in this cloud computing era when you can expand your compute power at will depending on need.

 

[jhm]

Yes. In the very narrow field of numerical analysis (i.e. the unsavory branch of mathematics that deals with measured numbers and counting machines none of which have unlimited precision) the two first numbers have the same meaning which is different from the third one:
500k
0.500M
0.5M

The first two are accurate to three digits, so covers the interval from 499.5k (endpoint included) to 500.5k (endpoint not included).
The third one is accurate to only 1 digit, so covers the much longer interval from 0.45M (endpoint included) to 0.55M (endpoint not included).

It would be comical if the SEC tried to apply this highly specific terminology to Twitter, which by design makes it difficult to communicate with that kind of precision.

Perhaps Musk should have simply said "5 lakh" to imply only 1 digit of precision.

 

[AlexS]

anyone can tell what is FactSet deliveries estimate? This seems to be very important metric for short term share price