Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

No, I've only been involved in the markets for around 30 years. How could I remember that?

Neither do I, but I did study monetary history in graduate school, so I read about such times, or should I say 'I read about alleged times...'

 

[mltv]

Tesla Is on a Path to $400 Billion in Sales. Thank GM.

Traditional auto makers are going all in on electric vehicles. General Motors wants to be selling $90 billion of EVs annual by 2030. If it hits that goal then Tesla should be this big.

www.barrons.com

 

[jkirkwood001]

I believe Orlando and FL is also the biggest rental market in US?

C'mon my American friends! Notwithstanding the Florida market, you'll have half the Tesla factories in operation by next year, but North America is only a third of the global market. Is it really so important to have a 3rd soon?

Don't you think Tesla has better candidate countries (with import duties to avoid) for the next few Gigafactories? How about Canada for example? We're about the same population as your most populous state, California, and almost twice the GDP of Florida.

I'm not seriously expecting a Canadian Gigafactory ASAP. But India, Philippines, Brazil, or UK all seem like more likely next announcements to me than a 3rd US Gigafactory.

Edit: I think Elon always picks numbers over sentiment.

 

[woodisgood]

Don't even have a clue where you are coming from. I live in a very liberal city and most everyone loves my Tesla, it is quickly becoming the most popular new car. It's also quite huge in the most liberal states and most liberal parts of those states. If there is any political lean to Tesla ownership it is the reverse, very few in red states.

What you say is almost 180 out from reality in my experience.

My experience is there is truth in what both of you say.

 

[jerry33]

Why does it feel like the MM manipulation is ALWAYS downward? Why the hell don't they just plan their options for the price to be higher and not fight so hard to keep the price down? It would be way less trouble.

I'd assume it's because the MMs are heavily invested in fossil fuels and they don't want their other investments to become worthless.

 

[Ogre]

C'mon my American friends! Notwithstanding the Florida market, you'll have half the Tesla factories in operation by next year, but North America is only a third of the global market. Is it really so important to have a 3rd soon?

Don't you think Tesla has better candidate countries (with import duties to avoid) for the next few Gigafactories? How about Canada for example? We're about the same population as your most populous state, California, and almost twice the GDP of Florida.

I'm not seriously expecting a Canadian Gigafactory ASAP. But India, Philippines, Brazil, or UK all seem like more likely next announcements to me than a 3rd US Gigafactory.

Seems to me Tesla has a lot of untapped potential and usable land in Texas to unlock. I expect they will be building on that scaffolding for some time.

If Tesla expects to grow at 50% per year for the foreseeable future, they need to cut ground in more than one location in the next year.

 

[Krugerrand]

FWIW

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446192403787001869

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446195761679638531

If the latter were true (I seriously doubt it), byebye shorts

#letsjustpullstuffoutofourcalzone

 

[dhanson865]

Looks like its 7th?

Companies ranked by Market Cap - CompaniesMarketCap.com

Ranking the world's top companies by market cap, market value, revenue and many more metrics

companiesmarketcap.com

TSLA goes up by ~10% and FB goes down by ~3% tomorrow and it could be 6th

I think he was just looking at the US list instead of world list, Saudi Aramco is the missing link (international and in the top 5 but not considered a US company).

 

[Knightshade]

C'mon my American friends! Notwithstanding the Florida market, you'll have half the Tesla factories in operation by next year

We have half of the Tesla factories in operation right now.

Might even be 2/3rds in an hour or so

 

[StealthP3D]

Debatable, yes, but the rules, explicit in the case of the DTC, are written to permit market makers to have rolling fails. Because that, however absurd, is actually documented it is very clear. Paraphasing Richard Nixon 'if a Market Maker (MM) does it it's not illegal'. Although TSLA is far from the only recurrent target, the MM's seem always to prefer targets that are the subject of controversy. Since TSLA offends sever leading industrial companies, it is a perfect target. Manufacturing FUD tends to begin with a 'germ' of truth, but they don't even need that.

Nearly all of us are frustrated and irritated, nowhere near as much as Tesla itself. From my decades in this arena I am certain that no regulatory decision maker knows what is happening. It is hard to understand their ignorance, easier to understand their venality.

Despite all of that, we do know that Tesla is winning customers and credibility. SpaceX, remember, succeeded with all the forces arrayed against it. Tesla has done the same. In the long term we'll still benefit greatly.

I'm not frustrated or irritated by the opaque markets - I have accepted that. I can't change it and I've managed to make a great living all these years so it is what it is. I'm sure along the way I've made money, sometimes not in spite of the manipulation, but because of it. It's part of the markets which I have always looked at through first principles view (even before I knew it was called that). I always called you "only knowing what you really know". What that means is the trading price is the only thing that's real. It does tend to have certain patterns and respond to news in certain ways but I think people can get really far out in the weeds trying to explain it or predict it using pure facts and logic. That's why I buy and hold companies that I think are under-valued relative to where I think they will be in 2-4 years. I don't use a lot of fancy formulas to make those determinations, I just observe.

It's not uncommon for me to wait a year or two for the market to see what I see. I got lucky with Tesla, it was only a bit less than a year before my first buys started appreciating and I doubled that position during the 2019 low, the day it turned around and never looked back. I can see how a short-term trader could be frustrated by market-maker behavior because it makes it more difficult to skim profits for themselves. That's what market-makers do - they use their superior market data to profit from short-term changes in sentiment. In my case, it worked in my favor - because I play a longer game than the market makers.

 

[MXWing]

Tesla should announce they are going all electric by 2030 and that they plan to surpass GM. That should be good for at least 3-4%.

What I'm hoping for this evening.

Now accepting DOGE for cars.
Free Supercharging at AMC Theaters when buying a ticket.
Robotaxi to take kids without a drivers license to Gamestop.
Cybertruck steel sourced from Cleveland Cliffs
Tesla phone partnership with Blackberry.

Short burn of the millennium

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Why does it feel like the MM manipulation is ALWAYS downward? Why the hell don't they just plan their options for the price to be higher and not fight so hard to keep the price down? It would be way less trouble.

Everything Tesla is about is based on sustainability, which in turn is based on renewable energy, which by definition has zero marginal cost. That is not the world in which Deutsche bank would prefer to operate.

They literally will not exist once Elon's "done". So you could say there's some incentive to hold things back.

 

[StealthP3D]

Seems to me Tesla has a lot of untapped potential and usable land in Texas to unlock. I expect they will be building on that scaffolding for some time.

If Tesla expects to grow at 50% per year for the foreseeable future, they need to cut ground in more than one location in the next year.

Elon sandbagged the estimated production capacity of GigaChina, GigaGermany and GigaTexas by quoting capacity based on the then-current manufacturing efficiency (per sq. foot) and limiting it to buildings that were already designed. Tesla will continue to build-out all three locations and increase manufacturing speed and throughput. True capacity will prove to be much higher than originally announced.

I suspect Tesla will announce more factories in 2022 but might not break ground on any of them within the year. And they won't need to to grow at 50%/year as they focus on expanding production at sites they already have.

 

[Artful Dodger]

so the 2:1 could be back on the table.

But even if it is telegraphed, all the naked shorting has to be unwound.

Yeah, so HALF the naked shorting has to be unwould. Even with a 10:1 split, only 90% of the naked shorts would be forced to locate shares.

 

[RobStark]

It is also relevant that in GM's few remaining non-NA markets are in:
China, where SAIC really is the force, thus supporting Buick through China domestic designs, often sold nowhere else, but with some exports to the US and elsewhere
Korea- through the Daewoo acquisition, supplied Asian RHD markets but quite them, and Gm Korea is not thriving at the moment.
Brazil- highly successful with almost all models designed in China or Korea, but built in Brazil. Mostof their success is by building the most popular taxi models in Brazil (the Chevrolet Spin, Onix and Cruze) and a highly successful pickup, the S10.

That boils down to GM having pretty much low end cheap models in China and Brazil (>50% of sales) and the North America steadily losing market share.

it takes no great analysis to explain why @AudubonB found out GM seems not to have made consistent profits for decades.
They, like Ford, are retreating from the global markets bit by bit. Retreat has never been successful as a business strategy.

Just for reference Ford stays committed to the UK and GM stays committed to Brazil, while GM quit the UK and Ford just quit Brazil. GM is losing profitable share in Brazil because of Chery and Hyundai, among others while Ford in the UK is losing share to quite a few competitors, including Tesla.

Suzuki, Renault, and Peugeot have exited the US/Canada market.

Probably good decisions. Not the only examples.

Yes, it is better to have a world class product and expand expand and expand.

 

[22522]

Don't even have a clue where you are coming from. I live in a very liberal city and most everyone loves my Tesla, it is quickly becoming the most popular new car. It's also quite huge in the most liberal states and most liberal parts of those states. If there is any political lean to Tesla ownership it is the reverse, very few in red states.
i
What you say is almost 180 out from reality in my experience.

I think it has to do with being located in the rust belt...

Let's cue up the pejorative words just to remove all ambiguity.

East coast MBA schools and Unions (many of which are documented criminal organizations) teach an adversarial win lose "Negotiation" best standard practice. Hence the rust belt with an intractable history of bad blood. Everybody "lies" (see GM press conference). Unions are (sort of) a protection racket because the government is not doing their job. There should be more lawsuits like the one Tesla just lost and then you would not need unions.

A liberal in Illinois is pro union (because the government is not doing their job for whatever reason).

East coast VCs value money equity more than sweat equity... Boston should do better than Silicon Valley, if not for greed.

California is different. Wealth is more shared inside the business enterprise. It is more win/win cooperative than adversarial.

When a liberal in Illinois looks at Tesla they see Tesla as a affront to everything they know and believe to be true.

The speed of innovation differences are so large it would be embarrassing, if not for the differences being so large you can't even get them on the same scale.

Let's take the pejoratives out. More gentle with a little bit of euphemism to soften it:

Tesla threatens many Illinois liberals' way of life.

I think this resolves the differences.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think it has to do with being located in the rust belt...

Let's cue up the pejorative words just to remove all ambiguity.

East coast MBA schools and Unions (many of which are documented criminal organizations) teach an adversarial win lose "Negotiation" best standard practice. Hence the rust belt with an intractable history of bad blood. Everybody "lies" (see GM press conference). Unions are (sort of) a protection racket because the government is not doing their job. There should be more lawsuits like the one Tesla just lost and then you would not need unions.

A liberal in Illinois is pro union (because the government is not doing their job for whatever reason).

East coast VCs value money equity more than sweat equity... Boston should do better than Silicon Valley, if not for greed.

California is different. Wealth is more shared inside the business enterprise. It is more win/win cooperative than adversarial.

When a liberal in Illinois looks at Tesla they see Tesla as a affront to everything they know and believe to be true.

The speed of innovation differences are so large it would be embarrassing, if not for the differences being so large you can't get them on the same scale.

Let's take the pejoratives out. More gentle with a little bit of euphemism to soften it:

Tesla threatens many Illinois liberals' way of life.

I think this resolves the differences.

Lol....I live in Philadelphia and everyone loves Tesla. Literally everyone. Except maybe the 2% most extreme on either end. I'm in Chicago quite a bit and they seem to love Tesla as well.

With what are you building these weird realities in your head? If you're watching TV a lot, I recommend quitting it.

 

[stealthyc]

Lol....I live in Philadelphia and everyone loves Tesla. Literally everyone. Except maybe the 2% most extreme on either end. I'm in Chicago quite a bit and they seem to love Tesla as well.

With what are you building these weird realities in your head? If you're watching TV a lot, I recommend quitting it.

Can confirm Ann Arbor liberals love Tesla too, though we do probably have the most Mach-E on the streets of any city

 

[thx1139]

Can confirm Ann Arbor liberals love Tesla too, though we do probably have the most Mach-E on the streets of any city

So do Illinois liberals. Why the issue with Illinois all of a sudden? This Illinois liberal indeed believes in unions, but for all circumstances? No. For companies that treat employees like *sugar*, yeah. For companies that treat employees well, no.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I could understand how an outsider might think Philadelphians would be anti-Tesla. We do tend to be a bit......abrasive......toward anything.

Honestly, I doubt there are any major subgroups that hate Tesla, that's just something we're programmed to think is likely. It's like solar power, conservatives freakin love solar power in my experience. The narrative is generally the opposite.