Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

"World class manipulation" Merica does it best.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

"World class manipulation" Merica does it best.

BUY!

 

[Paul_SF]

BUY!

THE DIP!

 

[jbcarioca]

If Tesla doesn't decide on a new Gigafactory location until 2023, would that imply that their capex would shrink dramatically next year once Austin and Berlin are done? If so, seems like that's even better EPS for the next 18 months or so.

That may be true but understates the investments need to upgrade, expand and refine the existing locations. There is quite large capacity to grow in Shanghai, Berlin and Austin. Some of that is in construction now. Just consider how much investment will be made to support 4680 lines, integration of Panasonic, LG and CATL products, among others. Then consider Gigapresses, robotics, steel forming and TE product development. Apart from those there is significant Capex for expanding Superchargers, sales and service to existing and new markets. If tahtis not enough, just think about the investments in AI development, which will certainly end out demanding/enabling new investments in almost all the areas listed above.

Gigafactories as physical entities seem to be the largest Capex items. They are assuredly not that.
Elon, yesterday, said that factories should be smaller, that they should follow a path similar to that of chips. I do not recall the exact words. However, I am convinced that he gave a giant clue when he said Fremont could have a 50% production growth, while pointing out that it cannot grow physically. Doing what he said will require huge capex. In my opinion 'we ain't seen nothin' yet'.

 

[deshkart]

This post reflects conventional thinking which was true until the last decade. Now it is becoming different.
First the plan:

Saudi Arabia making headway with Vision 2030’s clean energy plans

Reports surfaced last week about plans by the California-based Lucid Motors to set up a manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia as part of its expansion in the region. The plant, which may become Lucid Motors’ Middle Eastern center, will be in line with the Saudi government’s plans to produce...

www.arabnews.com

Then Lucid:

Lucid to start manufacturing electric cars in Saudi Arabia in 2024

The Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, owns a majority stake in Lucid, whose shares are traded on the US NASDAQ Stock Market last month.

saudigazette.com.sa

And Sabic is investing in renewables and batteries:

Sabic

From making cars and planes more fuel-efficient, to helping conserve the world’s water supply and enabling colorful smartphone cases, we find solutions to the challenges of today to help our customers achieve their ambitions and build a better tomorrow.

www.sabic.com

SASO is beginning:

Saudi Arabia gears up to take delivery of electric cars; SASO issues first Certificate of Accreditation

Saudi Arabia gears up to take delivery of electric cars; SASO issues first Certificate of Accreditation

saudigazette.com.sa

So, please, put Saudi Arabia discussion in perspective. It is not, and has for years not been, the stereotype that is so very popular.
That is not in any way ignoring the old ways, the discussion of which is entirely off topic.
The most momentous demonstration of change that helps advance the BEV agenda was the granting of driving licenses for females. That is often ridiculed but that understates what is actually happening.

Full disclosure: I lived and worked in Iran, the UAE, Bahrain and Yemen and working also in/regarding Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and Israel. I worked with and had close relations with Iraqis, but never worked in Iraq. I worked for years with Saudi officials and businesses as well as Saudi investors in enterprise that I ran. To the extent that I understand what is happening in the region or in Saudi I am acutely aware that I am definitely not an expert. However I am cognizant of social and religious developments and their influences on economic policy.

My considered opinion is: Beware broad generalizations. They are invariably too superficial, often wrong. Privately I have discussed some of these issues with TMC members. I will not repeat those here because they can be seriously misunderstood. For obvious clues check the country list above.

Actually if you followed oil market in March 2020 it showed that nothing has changed for Saudi. Saudi did exact same thing again. Instead of reducing output, they flood the market with excess supply even though there was no space to store oil which lead to infamous -$37 per barrel of oil. Oil is still 90% of Saudi revenues. They can’t change overnight. I understand that they see oil market is changing and they want to transition too. I predict that the oil market will change too fast for Saudi’s comfort which is why they will panic again.

 

[Unpilot]

I would buy....but rounding up some dry powder is proving to be even more difficult than herding cat's.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Whamo!

 

[GOVA]

I think Berlin and Austin will cover the demand for model 3 and Y in 2022. But I feel Tesla needs to start producing the next lower priced model in 2023 to be able to grow further. Not everyone can afford a $55k car.

While true, I am getting tired of seing this 'argument' over and over again. 55K now, is VASTLY different than 55K say 3 years ago and we all know why. Tesla is not going to make cars for free yet. Many seem to just look at prices as numbers without any real live context how much those numbers can do now and before. Frankly, when good Moutain Bikes can easily reach 20K a pop, I am not sure we need to pursue that 20K EV.

 

[Paul_SF]

That may be true but understates the investments need to upgrade, expand and refine the existing locations. There is quite large capacity to grow in Shanghai, Berlin and Austin. Some of that is in construction now. Just consider how much investment will be made to support 4680 lines, integration of Panasonic, LG and CATL products, among others. Then consider Gigapresses, robotics, steel forming and TE product development. Apart from those there is significant Capex for expanding Superchargers, sales and service to existing and new markets. If tahtis not enough, just think about the investments in AI development, which will certainly end out demanding/enabling new investments in almost all the areas listed above.

Gigafactories as physical entities seem to be the largest Capex items. They are assuredly not that.
Elon, yesterday, said that factories should be smaller, that they should follow a path similar to that of chips. I do not recall the exact words. However, I am convinced that he gave a giant clue when he said Fremont could have a 50% production growth, while pointing out that it cannot grow physically. Doing what he said will require huge capex. In my opinion 'we ain't seen nothin' yet'.

That’s why I think we would not see more than 10 GF, if even, on the whole planet. Elon said many times that you can get more and more efficient on the same footprint and makes no sense to build factories all over, that’s the old way of doing stuff. “ha, building factories is really hard”.

 

[ZachF]

SpaceX valuation now at $100 billion:

Elon Musk's SpaceX hits $100 billion valuation after secondary share sale

The valuation of Elon Musk's SpaceX crossed $100 billion following the company's latest financing round, CNBC has learned, which was announced this week.

www.cnbc.com

 

[BornToFly]

So F and GM and NKLA all up significantly again today. Shorts piling on "there will be no stock split" TSLA at the open.

 

[jbcarioca]

What the blazes are you looking at Tuskegee AL real estate for?
I do admit, though, that having realtor.com’s concierge team for a $58,000 parcel certainly is intriguing

Why not.Following Booker T Washington and George Washington Carver is not a bad idea.

George Washington Carver and Henry Ford Shared a Bio-fuel (Ethanol) Vision

Though worlds apart, George Washington Carver and Henry Ford shared a vision of a future in which agricultural products would be put to new uses to create products and industries. One idea both men worked on more than 60 years ago -- biofuels -- is again in vogue as America seeks...

www.theautochannel.com

Exactly what might be done there is a different question, but it makes sense to me.

 

[lafrisbee]

What the blazes are you looking at Tuskegee AL real estate for?
I do admit, though, that having realtor.com’s concierge team for a $58,000 parcel certainly is intriguing

nope..it was the price reduction amount that was a good sales ploy for Austin. (I have an idea as to why the seller chose that, "What?! You want me to reduce the price? You must be smoking something. OK reduce it by ...."

 

[StealthP3D]

I think Berlin and Austin will cover the demand for model 3 and Y in 2022. But I feel Tesla needs to start producing the next lower priced model in 2023 to be able to grow further. Not everyone can afford a $55k car.

Not everyone can afford a $25K car. In fact, plenty of people can't afford to own a $600 smartphone. But they sell well because plenty of people can.

Tesla hasn't even hit 1 million units per year yet, the addressable market is huge. Remember, the new vehicle market is around 80 million vehicles a year and most people can't afford ANY of them. The Tesla Model 3 pricing starts near the middle price point of those new car sales and costs less to own too. Do BMW, Mercedes and Audi have $25K cars? What percent of their sales come from cars costing $25K or less?

Use your head.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"World class manipulation" Merica does it best.

Wedgies making sure they stay in contact w. the 10-day MA

Cheers!

 

[ZachF]

I think Berlin and Austin will cover the demand for model 3 and Y in 2022. But I feel Tesla needs to start producing the next lower priced model in 2023 to be able to grow further. Not everyone can afford a $55k car.

TBH, many people can't afford a new car at all, they'll have to wait for used EVs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

SpaceX valuation now at $100 billion:

Elon Musk's SpaceX hits $100 billion valuation after secondary share sale

The valuation of Elon Musk's SpaceX crossed $100 billion following the company's latest financing round, CNBC has learned, which was announced this week.

www.cnbc.com

Nice. That's up from $74B on Feb. 17, 2021. That's a 33% gain for SpaceX in 8 mths.

 

[thx1139]

Or moving HQ to Austin where the next factory will be operational, closer to starbase, and cost of living is less, allowing Tesla to attract new talent.

People could have worked in Austin anyway. As I said in a larger post, this is a paperwork based change. Tesla wont force people to move to Austin and if people wanted to move to Austin Tesla would have allowed them to do so anyway.

 

[JRP3]

That poses the question :- How much more efficient can EV drivetrains get?

Not much. The new 3/Y motors are 97% peak efficiency.

 

[Prunesquallor]

People could have worked in Austin anyway. As I said in a larger post, this is a paperwork based change. Tesla wont force people to move to Austin and if people wanted to move to Austin Tesla would have allowed them to do so anyway.

Management will move where Elon is. Elon will be in Austin.