Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

A musical selection for this trading moment!

 

[mongo]

I guess one needs to be either @factchecking or @avoigt to count here....but what @factchecking said, is exactly my take from earlier today: the re-do has legal merit.

Let's put this to bed now, proper procedure will prevail. GigaBerlin will open as planned. 'Nuff said.

No offense meant, the Twitter source was in my head and eaiser to find than a post in a thread stack.

 

[jbcarioca]

I really like Buttigieg, but this response is evasive. As Secretary of Transportation, Buttitigeig has the responsibility to deal with a clear ethics breach regarding the material conflict of interest Dr Cummings has as Director of Veoneer. When dealing with ethical breach is it not adequate for him pass this off as "Musk should call me if he has a problem." Sec Pete is the one with the problem. He needs to own this.

I would recommend that activists petition Sec. Pete directly. This is an ethics violation under his watch.

Not a violation necessarily. There are multiple options for political appointees:
1. Sell securities that might present a conflict of interest;
2. Put all securities in a blind trust;
3. petition for an exemption.

It is not yet an ethical breach. We should understand that political appointees go through this process regularly. It si probably also that this administration has higher standards in this regard than previous ones may have had.

This is NOT a defense of anybody in particular, including Ms. Cummings. It IS an example of multiple ways to cure a potential violation. We have similar situations for nearly everyone who is nominated for a senior position.

 

[Boomer19]

I guess one needs to be either @factchecking or @avoigt to count here....but what @factchecking said, is exactly my take from earlier today: the re-do has legal merit.

Let's put this to bed now, proper procedure will prevail. GigaBerlin will open as planned. 'Nuff said.

or maybe if you were @catchecking

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sheesh

But you have no problem with tweets and google docs as a primary source?

Brother.

 

[mongo]

But you have no problem with tweets and google docs as a primary source?

Brother.

Read the thread, not just the forum included snippet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1451144735662485504

Then vett the docs yourself.

 

[Boomer19]

TE margins basically nil
(no surprise and not a complaint)

but with the battery backlog, and expected growth in auto, it’s difficult to imagine when TE starts to transition into the juggernaut we hope it becomes (at least in the financials)
- i suppose megapack factory will help with margins

until they can either source (at lower costs) or produce in house, enough to fulfill that demand….

also the increasing efficiency of GF3/solar

but other than those…is there any other way?
do we guess it’s anything less than 2 years away? 5 years?

 

[thx1139]

Is real, the timing of online review has been interpreted differently, better to redo with longer period than have court rule against the process later.
Is non-issue, findings will stay the same and Tesla still has trial run permit
FC/ @avoigt Twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1451131410979475462

Like I said over at Tesmanian. If these are public discussions why arent we seeing what the public is asking/saying and how they are being responded to?

 

[Big Time]

The MACD just flipped for the first time in over an hour. Up we go?!
RSI went very low on the short term chart

 

[Prunesquallor]

Hmmm. Just got done with a 50 km bike ride, ordered an iced latte at Starbucks, logged on and look at all the nonsense you all are up to.

I know, I know, get back on the bike …

 

[jhm]

Not a violation necessarily. There are multiple options for political appointees:
1. Sell securities that might present a conflict of interest;
2. Put all securities in a blind trust;
3. petition for an exemption.

It is not yet an ethical breach. We should understand that political appointees go through this process regularly. It si probably also that this administration has higher standards in this regard than previous ones may have had.

This is NOT a defense of anybody in particular, including Ms. Cummings. It IS an example of multiple ways to cure a potential violation. We have similar situations for nearly everyone who is nominated for a senior position.

This is all quite lawyerly, the problem is more political. If Buttigeig want to maintain a clean image (which is a significant part of his political brand), then he must proactively avoid even the appearance of an ethical violation under his watch. So the point of petitioning him is to put him on notice that this does not pass the sniff test and he would do well to act like a responsible Secretary.

I actually supported Mayor Pete in is bid for the presidency. I think he has enormous potential for national office. But I'm worried he is making poor choices right now that could undermine his political future.

 

[Krugerrand]

Q3 earnings celebratory treats.

FYI, it was the pretzels and banana muffins. Today is homemade french . No need to thank me; I didn’t do it for anyone here.

 

[2daMoon]

Tesla Economist checks in with his review of Q3 Earnings

 

[jbcarioca]

Yep and yep


???Relevence and conclusion. Notwithstanding the 'tampered evidence' theory, the crash reportedly had everything to do with pilot error (too low, applied power too late) and nothing to do with it being a fly by wire system.

Spoiler: Video on the crash report

Are you implying there is no testing of changes? If not, the conclusion is that Tesla is already doing the right thing. Documentation already exists in the form of the testing results from the NN build with test cases and subsequent human drivability.


How is it even possible for OTA to not be slowed down by additional release vetting? That implies further testing which must occur after the release candidate is created.



Yet Tesla is the lightning rod/ problem child? We had zero training on our Ford Explorer's Adaptive Cruise Control and you know what? It will not slow the vehicle below 12MPH nor will it reliably detect stopped cars nor those going under 6 MPH. In other words it is guaranteedIto hit the car in front of it if traffic stops. Ford Lane assist will bounce you off the edges once or twice, then put you in the ditch. Typically, Tesla's TACC will not. Are they addressing the industry or the front runner?

I might even go so far as to say training on the exact behavior of a particular software version is problematic since the next version may act differently and any two cars could have different versions. While less informative, a blanket "It drives like a teenager, don't trust it completely" may be the better approach.

I strongly agree with you. Of the three systems I have tried none come close to Tesla in competence.
That does not alter the political reality that every such system is coming to increased regulatory scrutiny. We need not like that to realize that it is happening.

 

[TheWalkingDad]

Never really believed in TA trends but maybe a cup and handle pattern? Bouncing off 900... maybe a dip into 780-800 and then

I'll be buying dips.

 

[ninpb]

Closed yesterday 10/29 750c I got last month for a good profit for sell the news. You're welcome.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Read the thread, not just the forum included snippet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1451144735662485504

Then vett the docs yourself.

Yeah, that's one way, but too takes long when the OP could simply post links to the source document. This is equivalent to a 'chain-of-custody' issue in a court case, where evidence is not admissible if the is the possibility it was altered. Google docs prove ample opportunity, and I don't care to waste time establishing motive when the simple thing to do is, again, share the source. Suspicious timing also with a news release on the morning after earnings...

Instead, I spent my time productively this A.M. doing an 2022Q1 Revenue estimate. I calcuated that if both Fremont and Shanghai are able to maintain their Sep '21 Q3 production rate (highly probable, IMO) then Tesla will only need ~56K Model Y production from the two new Gigafactories combined to reach $75B in annualized revenue (that's about 2K/week avg production). I also rate this as more likely to occur than not.

I believe that $75B revenue number is a big stretch goal for Tesla IMO in Q1. It would (very likely) trigger the twelveth tranche in Elon's CEO comp to become "likely" and thus start the series of pro-rated payments on this final tranche.

Finally, I think Tesla is highly motivated to get these payments done ASAP since the longer it takes, the higher the SP goes, and the more it will cost in income taxes when the shares vest/excercise (I'm unable to locate a precise treatment of how that accounting will be done, but I take this as a heuristic).

So, Giga Berlin and its' enviro review were not on my critical-path this morning. For now, I'm satifified it won't be an issue going forward in 2022Q1. But if this was the '80s and I was in my 20s, I'd likely have said 'nuke-and-bypass'.

But I'm not 25 anymore...

Cheers!

 

[MXWing]

It's awfully early in the day- but perhaps the "THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT" folks were finally right

The trend is your friend.

Until it's not.

Rejection at 900 did happen as expected. But its just resting for next leg up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The plant, which makes cars from the Golf, Tiguan, and Seat brands among others,

Ironic! VWAG is making Seats, while TSLA is selling chairs...

Cheers!

 

[kbM3]

This is awesome. For Tesla to carry out their vision they will need Giga Skunkworks on every continent harnessing the brainpower of the world's brightest and most creative thinkers!

For that very reason, the most important revelation from last night for the long term, might be the reference to the explosion of Resume submissions after AI Day.

Mission Accomplished!