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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I'm tired of the self-congratulatory pitter patter (and frankly, it makes me nervous when exuberance replaces analysis) so for something else NOT TSLA but somewhat related, I invite you all to play NAME THAT STOCK
And don't even try to get cute. You would have to know the currency
And don't even try to get cute. You would have to know the currency
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
This discussion really belongs elsewhere because it gets pretty detailed (those not interested can skip this entire post) and I have enough experience arguing with you about things that should be obvious (and were later shown to be) that I'm not going to go into a lengthy back and forth. But for the benefit of those who have followed along so far I'll just close this out by adding this last clarification. I don't expect @Knightshade will agree but that's OK.
Tesla has to make accounting decisions as to how much of the purchased value has been delivered at the end of each quarter for each car depending upon when certain features were purchased and the pricing of those features. Because AP and EAP and FSD have been sold at various times and in various combinations for various prices, the calculation for each car is different and varies upon what features were promised at the time of sale, what percent of the value was already present in the car at the time of purchase. And the price varied.
For example, my wife's car was purchased in early 2018 with AP but not FSD. Not all promised autopilot features were activated yet. At a later date she added FSD for $3,500. My car was purchased with Extended AP and not all features were active yet (summon, etc). At a later date, Tesla lowered the price on FSD and I added it to the package. And, over the course of selling those features, increasing numbers of them became active. The point is, the accounting for these features is dependent upon what was active when the user purchased them and what was yet to be delivered. And since the balance of these two things was always changing, and different customers bought at different times, the balance of how the value is assigned varies with what was active and available when the customer purchased those features.
In other words, the price the customer paid must be divided up based upon what was available at the time and what was promised (and even when it was promised because the time value of money might play into this). And the calculation will be different for different customers. It's a bit of a thorny problem and I don't claim to have all the answers (Tesla doesn't release the details). I'm just saying that Zach's comment that the revenues must be accounted for based upon what the customer was promised (and what was already delivered) is not proof that Tesla is accounting for two different versions FSD sold.
In fact, your interpretation implies Tesla should be refunding a portion of early FSD sales which I don't believe is the case. Because your scenario implies Tesla is admitting they sold something they don't intend to deliver. Or that early FSD purchasers will be getting something that later FSD purchasers will not. So, no, your arguments do not sway me.
The only direction is UP from here. We're only at the beginning of this run. As you can see, we bounced violently off the red trendline which was broken back in May. This trendline held TSLA up through the September SP snuff, the March tech correction and other slightly less negative catalysts. For that trendline to break down in May it took a tremendous amount of FUD and global economic uncertainty. Likewise, it takes an equal amount of optimism to break above it like we did this week. This is the bottom.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tesla is enforcing strict FSD Beta rules for inattentive drivers
It appears that Tesla is indeed determined to keep its FSD Beta program as free from untoward incidents as possible. As recently shared by the Tesla community online, Tesla has been sending out emails to some FSD Beta testers who have been flagged for not using the advanced driver assist system...
www.teslarati.com
Hello Missy,
You are receiving this email because telemetry from your vehicle was flagged for improper usage of the FSD Beta feature.
Specifically, while using the FSD Beta feature, you or another driver of your vehicle received:
- Two or more “strikeouts,” which resulted in the loss of Autopilot availability for that drive; or
- At least one “strike” per 5 km (about 3 miles) driven on Autopilot, which is a visual and audible warning that requires attention.
The Tesla Team
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I'm still in a dour mood ... let me explain.
I kept my TSLA shares, but I gave more than passing thought to selling in the past 24 hours.
Since I am forever retracing my steps in the hope of learning something, it occurred to me that celebration is inversely proportional to confidence. After all, if I was supremely confident in my TSLA holding two days ago then today's SP movement would be no surprise at all and would not evoke a self - pat on the back.
In a similar vein, the over abundance of joy in the forum reflects unexpected returns and widespread uncertainty.
This perspective should be discounted by Schadenfreude
I kept my TSLA shares, but I gave more than passing thought to selling in the past 24 hours.
Since I am forever retracing my steps in the hope of learning something, it occurred to me that celebration is inversely proportional to confidence. After all, if I was supremely confident in my TSLA holding two days ago then today's SP movement would be no surprise at all and would not evoke a self - pat on the back.
In a similar vein, the over abundance of joy in the forum reflects unexpected returns and widespread uncertainty.
This perspective should be discounted by Schadenfreude
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
A couple off the top of my head that I know to look pretty similar but not identical to what you posted: LAC, ENPH, and BTC. But I don't think you'd post about any of those.
CLK350
Member
AMD, NVIDIA and many more biotechs - I suggest we let this rest - not as big a deal at TSLA because of its market cap/ importance
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yes, I pointed out that multiple posts ago but you kept responding here anyway.
Again this is inaccurate because all features of all versions of anyting other than FSD have been fully delivered and revenue recognized since fall of 2019.
ONLY FSD matters for this discussion.
The fact you agree different features were promised to different FSD buyers is the entire point I was making, and that Zach confirmed on the call.
So it's weird you keep trying to argue against something you admit is true.
This is not correct.
There was no such thing as "AP" in early 2018.
If she purchased anything she purchased EAP, which was the only thing sold other than FSD from late 2016 through early 2019.
Basic AP was not a "thing" until the early 2019 transition being discussed.
In both cases you both bought EAP, the only thing that was available until early 2019.
100% of the promised features of which had been delivered to customers by fall of 2019.
And you both later added the pre-march-2019 version of FSD. Which promises L4 driving to buyers.
In both cases nothing from FSD had been delivered when you purchased though.
The first FSD-only feature for pre 3/19 buyers came in April 2020. Stop light and stop sign recognition.
The only difference will be for those who bought before 3/19 (who were promised L4 driving- but at time of purchase had been delivered nothing for FSD) and those who purchased after 3/19.... who were promised a list of already delivered things plus 2 other features (stoplight/signs- delivered Apr 2020... and city streets- pending delivery).
That's the point of the entire discussion.
Post 3/19 buyers will have received everything promised once L2 city streets is in wide release.
Tesla will be free to recognize 100% of deferred revenue for all post 3/19 buyers.
They will not be able to for pre 3/19 buyers (including you and your wife apparently) because they still owe you L4 driving.
It literally is though.
See again the actual description of what the customer is purchasing, which is entirely different from pre and post 3/19 buyers.
It doesn't do that in any way, no.
Again you're making up things I never said.
I never claimed Tesla does not intend to deliver the greater promised features they promised to pre 3/19 buyers.
I only claimed, because it's factually true and I literally showed you this in writing from tesla.com, that they promised something more to those buyers.
Early FSD purchasers were promised more.
That isn't an argument. You've been shown the photos that clearly show Tesla doing that.
Tesla is of course free to deliver the "more" to EVERYONE, not just the pre 3/19 buyers.
But from a revenue recognition perspective they don't need to deliver the "more" to the later buyers to recognize fully the FSD revenue.
They DO need to deliver the more to the pre 3/19 buyers to do so. Because it's a promised, undelivered, thing to them (but was never promised to the later buyers).
This is exactly what Zach told us on the call-- that recognition is dependent on what was promised when you bought it
if you bought Pre 3/19 you were promised things the post 3/19 buyers were not.
I'd for a third time now suggest further discussion go to the FSD forums.
here's a link even
AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD
Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.
teslamotorsclub.com
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Tom Nash, in his coverage of 3Q Earnings, says that GJ is a "busted Johnson story". 
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tesla is enforcing strict FSD Beta rules for inattentive drivers
It appears that Tesla is indeed determined to keep its FSD Beta program as free from untoward incidents as possible. As recently shared by the Tesla community online, Tesla has been sending out emails to some FSD Beta testers who have been flagged for not using the advanced driver assist system...
Hello Missy,
You are receiving this email because telemetry from your vehicle was flagged for improper usage of the FSD Beta feature.
Specifically, while using the FSD Beta feature, you or another driver of your vehicle received:
This is your only warning to please keep your hands on the wheel and remain attentive at all times when using Autopilot. The car is not autonomous, and if you aren’t paying attention, a crash could happen, and you or others could get hurt, or worse, so failure to abide by this warning will result in removal of the FSD Beta feature from your vehicle.
- Two or more “strikeouts,” which resulted in the loss of Autopilot availability for that drive; or
- At least one “strike” per 5 km (about 3 miles) driven on Autopilot, which is a visual and audible warning that requires attention.
The Tesla Team
TESLARATI on Twitter: "Tesla is enforcing strict FSD Beta rules for inattentive drivers https://t.co/SOTwpudieB by @ResidentSponge" / Twitter
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Confused - wouldn't it be Pierre's price target?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Anyone here or elsewhere have updated projections for 4Q revenue/earnings? I wanna see some PE calcutions @ $900. Let's goooooooo!!!
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