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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I realize that for shorter term traders here, possible near term margin contraction from opening new factories is relevant, but for those of us looking longer term, the new factories represent significant opportunities for margin expansion as new manufacturing technologies are deployed.

Tesla’s meteoric rise to the upper echelon of mega market cap companies would be remarkable for any company, but for a vertically integrated heavy manufacturing company it is truly special. It’s once in a generation, like Toyota before it. Look at the largest 100 cap companies. Very few of them can manufacture anything bigger than what you can hold in your hand.

BuildIng on the human and financial capital Tesla now has, the sky is the limit not only for scaling manufacturing innovation, but also for applying these innovations to an ever widening array of products.

Couple that with Tesla’s software chops, and we have something without parallel in the history of business enterprise. Apple is the only company that comes even remotely close, and its combination of capabilities have so far created several trillion in value to its shareholders.
 
Visit EV revolution hits new milestone as Tesla Model 3 becomes Europe’s best-selling car in September - JATO for more info including that "Last month 46.5% of the passenger cars registered in Europe were SUVs" and it's growing, dying diesel & rising EVs. Just September mind, the big delivery quarter month


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I think your problem is that most people buying a Tesla can barely afford buying the car for ~$50k they don't have anywhere near $909k to invest in TSLA.

Most Tesla owners I know don't own any TSLA stock. In fact they don't own any stock for a single company, they only own mutual funds in their retirement accounts.
Great reply to @22522 's question.

Secondarily, many (most?) People don't automatically jump from liking a product to wanting to own shares in the company that makes the product. Kinda like

Person 1: "skydiving looks so cool"
Person 2: "wanna go skydiving?"
Person 1: "what?? NO! are you nuts? why would I want to do that?"

It's a false assumption that all the buyers of car will want to buy the stock.
 
It's a false assumption that all the buyers of car will want to buy the stock.

It's a false assumption but also a false premise and a false goal.
Just choose a number that you think validly represents the share of tesla owners that are also interested into owning TSLA.
Whatever number you chose, as long as it is above 0, more cars sold directly translate into more TSLA in tesla owner hands.
Tesla addressable market grows, therefore TSLA addressable market grows.

And thus SP also grows :p ... $930
 
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New intraday-ATH in the early Premarket with good volume and macros:

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,372.50 +31.50 (+0.21%)
As of 5:46 AM EDT. Market open

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Oct 25, 2021 05:46 AM ET
Consolidated Last Sale$927.99 +18.31 (+2.01%)
Pre-Market Volume160,859
Pre-Market High$931 (05:45:28 AM)
Pre-Market Low$910.01 (04:00:00 AM)
 
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Didn't see this posted yet - Parts and service, the coming EV disruption that nobody's talking about. The topic has been covered before, but the article has some good facts in it. Here are a few examples:
  • Making, selling and servicing vehicles employ an estimated 4.7 million people in the U.S., according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some of the jobs won’t go away, of course — there will still be a need for dealerships and tire shops. [I deleted the link to the dealerships, because they don't list Tesla as a manufacturer, lol]
  • The shift will reduce demand for oil nearly by 4.7 million barrels a day by 2040 in the U.S. alone, according to projections by BloombergNEF. That’s about 26% of U.S. consumption, roughly equivalent to the amount that Germany and Brazil combined consumed daily in 2020. Less gasoline being sold also means the need for ethanol, which is blended into motor fuels and consumes a third of the U.S. corn crop, will also fall.
The only thing I saw that I thought was pretty poor was the video at the end that is an informercial for the 2022 Bolt, which has the header, "Related Video." Related only in that the advertising fee for it probably helped pay for the writer's job. To me this was a well researched article that factually lays out the tsunami that is arriving, albeit not mentioning that Tesla is driving the wave and riding it at the same time.
I find some projections to be at odds with deeper thinkers, the points on the labor impacts are however, spot on and concerning. It's what the current federal admin has right. There is concern, valid concern, about the negative impacts of the EV revolution on the few remaining high quality blue collar labor jobs. I am at odds with the tactics but the larger point that this transition will be deep..and sometimes painful is worth thinking about. Especially for all those bragging about personal wealth all weekend long.
 
Great reply to @22522 's question.

Secondarily, many (most?) People don't automatically jump from liking a product to wanting to own shares in the company that makes the product. Kinda like

Person 1: "skydiving looks so cool"
Person 2: "wanna go skydiving?"
Person 1: "what?? NO! are you nuts? why would I want to do that?"

It's a false assumption that all the buyers of car will want to buy the stock.
Yes, I sometimes assume that:

1) People care about their financial futures
2) People follow best practices (Copy Fidelity Magellan, Peter Lynch)

When trying to figure out where this breaks, 30% don't think forward. So, Item 1 breaks. That leaves 70%.

Of those left, very few people are willing to a) copy success, b) do work and c) accept risk.

So a lot of them will delegate to a financial advisor (TSLAQ) and diworsify.

Cramer is pretty smart. He bought the stock after buying the car...

I guess when I think through.

Most people either don't care about their financial futures or don't follow best practice (for whatever reason (bad advice)).
 
I find some projections to be at odds with deeper thinkers, the points on the labor impacts are however, spot on and concerning. It's what the current federal admin has right. There is concern, valid concern, about the negative impacts of the EV revolution on the few remaining high quality blue collar labor jobs. I am at odds with the tactics but the larger point that this transition will be deep..and sometimes painful is worth thinking about. Especially for all those bragging about personal wealth all weekend long.
I am sure you have heard about people who guarantee that they can pick a winner, then predict 2 different outcomes and send those answers out in a 50-50 ratio. After 4 passes they have a small group of people who believe that they can actually pick a winner.

This group has been through a lot of ups and downs. For making a pick that happens to be ahead right now. You see it as personal wealth. I see it as people have a right to crow after passing through a risk window. Neither of us has the moral high ground.