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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I wasn't watching, but I'm told Jim Cramer just ranted on CNBC against Tesla and Musk, saying that anyone who buys a Tesla is an idiot and that Musk has to go to jail or the US no longer has a working justice system.

Which is weird, because I watched him just a couple weeks ago say that he wanted to buy a Tesla.

Hint to Jim: Angrily demanding on national television that a judge rule in a particular manner may not have the effect you're looking for.

Jury tampering, Witness tampering ... is there something like judge tampering?
 
Don’t forget “Rest of world” - namely the wealthy rcountries that are not yet able to get any version fo the Model 3: England and the other Europe countries not yet served, Japan, South Korea, Australia/New Zealand.

And then there are the top 3-5% of the population in the less wealthy countries in the rest of the world which can still afford a Tesla.

All up there is still hundreds of millions more potential buyers yet to be served.

Tesla could also look in to Russian market Mercedes is delivering 80-100k every year.
 
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Part of my attempt at TSLA due diligence is to convince myself that my long position is betting against dumb money. I do so by browsing various TSLA short seller forums.

If the TESLAQ crowd were as dumb as the information they regurgitate, I struggle to believe they would have the learning ability to operate an online trading platform.

My view is that they know full well that the information they push is false, and they push it in order to drive down the stock price. If they are externally sponsored by a Tesla threatened industry (pick one, oil/coal most likely, having proven themselves to have no scruples by spreading climate change disinformation), then this provides a value add service to their sponsor.
 
Went to my Tesla store today to test drive a Model 3. Never drove one before. I like it better than my S. It’s so nimble. And not having a display behind the steering wheel isn’t as bad as I thought. The main screen is surprisingly close to your face.

They have 10 cars sold and ready for delivery today. A lot of people already picked up in the morning so sales are def picking up this month.

Yup, I am in the same boat, I love my MS but am kind of afraid to test drive a 3, from everythihg I have read, and from what I would expect from a bit smaller/lighter with same basic design and power train. Also I think the higher screen position, in landscape mode with the stuff you need most on the left near the driver seems like would mean a small move from the road for quick glances to the screen.
 
If the TESLAQ crowd were as dumb as the information they regurgitate, I struggle to believe they would have the learning ability to operate an online trading platform.

My view is that they know full well that the information they push is false, and they push it in order to drive down the stock price. If they are externally sponsored by a Tesla threatened industry (pick one, oil/coal most likely, having proven themselves to have no scruples by spreading climate change disinformation), then this provides a value add service to their sponsor.

I hate to say it, but Chanos is *very* smart. Many TSLAQ are intelligent. Some portion are stupid. Some, I'm pretty sure, are mentally ill and latching onto a group for social reasons.

There's one short who's active on Twitter who constantly says the *dumbest* crap about Tesla. He also posts on other topics that he's expert in, and it's evident that he's so sharp that there's no way he's not just lying whenever he posts about Tesla. There aren't many like that, but I'd actually say there are more smart liars than stupid fools in TSLAQ.
 
Wait a sec here. Weren't you leveraged around 110% a few months ago? Now I see you are "deleveraged" down to 91% even around the bottom of the trading range here. Your truck isn't as full as it was a few months ago...
I deleveraged at $350, last time we hit it

Speaking of past, I was running even more than 200% TSLA at the time few years back, but I figured that too much is falling off the truck.

Even that 91% is probably around 85% now, without any trading, as TSLA keeps falling and most everything else I own going up.

And I have no conviction anymore in Tesla's execution (mostly EM's managing expectations and communication) to ever again get back to 100% TSLA. It's been 4 rough years, and it doesn't get better.

Though it's tempting to reconvert AMZN back into TSLA, I'd get some 43% more TSLA shares than I sold...
 
Like what? Remove Elon as CEO for making an aspirational statement after hours on twitter with numbers published before and then clarified after hours as well which caused zero movement of the stock to begin with? At worst I see a fine.
I just don't trust the system one damn bit. Look at Cramer today. I don't agree obviously. But how do I know that the Judge is not thinking like Cramer and all the other media pundits? I know what @Fact Checking said, and I hope it's true. Look, even many of the bulls (not me), like Gerber, Value Analyst, were all getting on Musk about that tweet and others. I mean none of these people have really looked at the numbers. And what did Cramer say in response to someone tweeting him about the info in the CC which showed the tweet was not material? He dismissed that as meaningless.

Basically, the consensus among the media and even some bulls is that Musk's tweeting is out of hand and needs to be reined in (again, I completely disagree). Why should I have faith that the judge is going to think any differently? I hope she does because that's what judges (and juries) are supposed to do (look at the facts and rule without bias). But I lost faith in the system (not Tesla/Musk people, but the system).

I hope I am pleasantly surprised and wrong!
 
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I deleveraged at $350, last time we hit it

Speaking of past, I was running even more than 200% TSLA at the time few years back, but I figured that too much is falling off the truck.

Even that 91% is probably around 85% now, without any trading, as TSLA keeps falling and most everything else I own going up.

And I have no conviction anymore in Tesla's execution (mostly EM's managing expectations and communication) to ever again get back to 100% TSLA. It's been 4 rough years, and it doesn't get better.

Though it's tempting to reconvert AMZN back into TSLA, I'd get some 43% more TSLA shares than I sold...
To clarify, I did sell few puts short last few days, so I'm not scared, just less exuberant than in the past...
 
Good point. There could have been warnings or even supervision by the SEC. they could have asked them to show how they implemented the set up for Twitter review and then signed off on the policy. So lame that SEC used the bluntest of the approach. Real boneheads! Seems they didn’t want to fix the issue at all.


I've interacted with several SEC Enforcement Division lawyers in multiple cases. Not to paint with too broad a brush, but the term "evangelical zeal" would accurately describe the approach of more than a few.
 
MXWL down >6% after hours. News?
Screen Shot 2019-03-20 at 8.23.29 PM.png
 
Would not a NO reply (to Musk sur-reply request) require a longer explanation than a YES reply. The YES reply to the SEC request was given very quickly and curtly.
I had wondered if the quick YES reply to the SEC was because the judge did not see any merit in the case the SEC had brought forward. I am now wondering if no reply yet to Tesla is because
A) The judge still sees no merit to the SEC case
B) Elon is well defended already, time for a trial to clear up the "He said She said".
 
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Exactly, it was my argument against people saying "people who would buy a model S now will buy the Model 3". Uh no, those Europeans were not going to buy the S no matter what, so the Model 3 did not cannibalize their Mode S purchase because they wouldn't be a model S purchase to begin with.

I bought S because Model 3 wasn't available. I live and park in downtown Toronto. S feels awkward for driving around tight streets, laneways and parking garages. My wife works for Nature Conservancy of Canada and gets many browny points when she shows up with Tesla, yet refuses to try to take it down winding ramp to her parking spot at work out of fear she'll scratch it.

I am actively trying to trade in Model S on 3, but not much luck so far. I will happily continue to drive S though, eventhough some maneuvering and parking is a bit cumbersome.

Not everything is black and white, there are people that bought S in the past that will go for M3 instead, especially Europe, or downtown dwellers like myself.
 
I've interacted with several SEC Enforcement Division lawyers in multiple cases. Not to paint with too broad a brush, but the term "evangelical zeal" would accurately describe the approach of more than a few.
Thankfully, I haven't warranted interest from this fine group. However, the rumors of their doggedness if they think someone is "getting over" on them is why I posted yesterday that the current contempt filing is but the first of many enforcement acts that the SEC will do.
 
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The SEC is the one with the complaint and they got the first word. I assumed the defendant would always get the last word in order to answer the charges.

Are there cases when the initiator would get both the first and last word? Seems unfair as they would get one extra statement and the benefit of both the primacy and recency bias.
Usually the moving party gets the last word whether in briefing or examination of witnesses. Remember the SEC has the burden of proof and unless I have had a memory lapse, here it is clear and convincing which is more stringent than preponderance of the evidence.
 
MXWL down >6% after hours. News?
According to NASDAQ, last trade was 125 shares at 17:32 EDT. Don't know if their data dropped out after that.
Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (MXWL) Interactive Chart

Only potential item I can see is the extention of the offer date from Tesla to Apr 2, 2019: (from their SEC filing dated Mar 15)

Item 11.

Additional Information.

On March 15, 2019, Tesla announced that it has extended the expiration of its previously announced offer to acquire each outstanding share of common stock of Maxwell Technologies, Inc. to 11:59 p.m., Eastern time, at the end of April 2, 2019, unless extended further or terminated in accordance with the merger agreement.
 
I wasn't watching, but I'm told Jim Cramer just ranted on CNBC against Tesla and Musk, saying that anyone who buys a Tesla is an idiot and that Musk has to go to jail or the US no longer has a working justice system.

Which is weird, because I watched him just a couple weeks ago say that he wanted to buy a Tesla.

Agreed. This started yesterday as he tried to reframe the SEC squabble as EM vs the Judge. He makes no mention of the SEC other than to mug their talking points about all tweets needing to be reviewed. Today, with no one else picking up his thinking, he doubled down on it. Again he is framing it as a 2 way conflict between EM and the judge. He is saying the judge is formidable which I think we would agree on.

But this is about a settlement and this case or something like it was a given. So now the court will make a finding and things will be better understood. I think this is the case that EM could not quite afford last Fall. Times are different (better board, product line & financials) and now it will play out for better or worse.

Cramer has set out his argument such that whatever the outcome, the market will know more and that is good. But for now there are many outcomes possible and some folks won't find comfort in the uncertainty.

In a way, he is messaging EM that this is a risky gambit, be careful.

What he is messaging me is that he has not done his homework. There is the possibility that this will be a long slog. But if the product is solid and demand is solid, then the FCF _should_ speak louder than pages of legalese.