Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

Part of my attempt at TSLA due diligence is to convince myself that my long position is betting against dumb money. I do so by browsing various TSLA short seller forums.

...

This makes a ton of sense to me @Iklundin - do you have any that you would particularly recommend avoiding or that you find useful? For myself, I'd be looking for a lovely blend of lower volume (so I can read more), and higher quality of information and argument. I ask as I'm hoping to take what you already know, and use that to shortcut my own ability to replicate what your'e doing

 

[Antares Nebula]

"@cleantechnica writer and friend Paul @atj721 thinks 80k Model 3 production this quarter, up 33% from 4Q’18. Anti-tesla forces are in a panic. They want to depress shareholders before the delivery numbers. Is this a company with a demand problem? @tesla_truth #TeslaModel3"

Vigo on Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

@KarenRei
mangoes are like apples, the seed may grow, but ya need to graft what 'cha want otherwise random fruit
try "Nam doc Mai" definately avoid "Tommy Atkins"

Hence the words "root stock"; I'm not a big fan of fruit that tastes like turpentine. And grafting a Tommy Atkins scion should be a crime

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla Will Endure the Bumpy Road Ahead | Loup Ventures

 

[AlexS]

Twitter is down, can you imagine if that happened during market hours? TSLA would jump 20%

 

[AudubonB]

I believe Elon and friends planted all the seed capital needed.

FTFY

 

[Big Blue 1011]

That’s basically the SEC’s contention, but I can’t see how that makes any sense. They seem to be demanding that Elon get approval for a tweet not needing approval. They say he can’t unilaterally decide whether approval is required but don’t outline at all how that decision should be made. Their interpretation essentially requires approval for all forms of communication of any kind, on any topic.

I agree that is the problem with these types of Consent Orders. They are too vague. But that causes problems in the middle, not the extremes. No one could plausibly argue that all tweets, on any topic whatsoever, would require pre-approval. That's not what the Consent Order says and any attempt to impose that drastic a restriction would raise 1st Amendment issues, I'm sure.

You have to recall that this was a consensual settlement. Elon and Tesla agreed that pre-approval of certain tweets is required in limited circumstances. The SEC cannot now argue that all tweets fall into those categories. The way you solve the problem is to show good faith by exercising an abundance of caution. Elon and Tesla's lawyers serve two roles: as counselors before the fact, and as advocates after the fact. We are seeing the "after the fact" advocates at play, and they are making all of the expected arguments. I have to believe, however, that before the fact, his lawyers would have advised the implementation of a slightly more conservative policy. In an abundance of caution, if for no other reason.

 

[Thekiwi]

This note was more about someone acquiring Tesla, or entering into a strategic relationship with Tesla, not so much capital raise:

There’s a wide range of opinions on Tesla’s value. We recently spoke with an investor who believed that the company would not attract strategic interest at any price, due to its existing financial liabilities and the NPV of future cash expenditures and obligations relative to the ability of the business to meet them. Other investors would beg to differ. Most auto OEMs, suppliers and tech enablers involved in connected cars describe Tesla as by far the most advanced automotive company in operation at scale. One highly respected auto industry veteran described Tesla’s traditional auto competition using the analogy of the dog track: “You go to the dog track and you see all the dogs chasing the mechanical white rabbit on the inside track. You know you’re never gonna catch the rabbit. You just hope you’re the fastest dog. Tesla is the rabbit.”

HA HA this is GREAT!

Tesla is the Rabbit.

 

[KarenRei]

I wasn't watching, but I'm told Jim Cramer just ranted on CNBC against Tesla and Musk, saying that anyone who buys a Tesla is an idiot and that Musk has to go to jail or the US no longer has a working justice system.

Which is weird, because I watched him just a couple weeks ago say that he wanted to buy a Tesla.

Hint to Jim: Angrily demanding on national television that a judge rule in a particular manner may not have the effect you're looking for.

 

[Thekiwi]

Sadly, I think the hundreds of thousands in campaign contributions will continue to sway his opinion. Lots of oil companies and auto dealers on the list. The Voter's Self Defense System

“Hello Texas. Gee thats a great future Tourism and Space Launch industry you have in being a location for future SpaceX Starship Ops. Would be a shame if that location was to change to another state...”

 

[Big Blue 1011]

I wasn't watching, but I'm told Jim Cramer just ranted on CNBC against Tesla and Musk, saying that anyone who buys a Tesla is an idiot and that Musk has to go to jail or the US no longer has a working justice system.

Which is weird, because I watched him just a couple weeks ago say that he wanted to buy a Tesla.

Hint to Jim: Angrily demanding on national television that a judge rule in a particular manner may not have the effect you're looking for.

Makes for good TV, I suppose. Not much use otherwise.

 

[Todd Burch]

When Murdoch bought the WSJ, he allowed the editorial page criminals to run rampant across the news pages. Now you can't trust anything they publish.

They still have some good reporters, but they're surrounded by proven liars and you can't tell which is which. There are individual WSJ reporters who are credible, but the paper as a whole is disinformation.

As someone who was personally interviewed by the WSJ and misrepresented in an autopilot article years ago, I can vouch for this.

 

[SpudLime]

As someone who was personally interviewed by the WSJ and misrepresented in an autopilot article years ago, I can vouch for this.

FWIW, The article that quoted me got them correct.

 

[MikeC]

She may have already decided that she wants to hear argument from counsel which would remove any need for the brief and there may be something else going on between the parties. I suspect she won't rule on it to avoid the last word game. Since permission is required I assume she may feel she understands the issue or there may be argument. You are right this is not an indication of her opinion.

The SEC is the one with the complaint and they got the first word. I assumed the defendant would always get the last word in order to answer the charges.

Are there cases when the initiator would get both the first and last word? Seems unfair as they would get one extra statement and the benefit of both the primacy and recency bias.

 

[oneday]

The SEC is the one with the complaint and they got the first word. I assumed the defendant would always get the last word in order to answer the charges.

Are there cases when the initiator would get both the first and last word? Seems unfair as they would get one extra statement and the benefit of both the primacy and recency bias.

Closing arguments in criminal trials the prosecution gets the first and last word.

 

[keydiver]

I think you might be surprised how much you enjoy the agility of the 3. I loved my S and I find that other than storage, I absolutely love driving my 3 even more. It's incredibly sporty.

Ditto! I can't stop driving my wife's L3MUR. We drove it to Disney World this week, even though the Model S has free SC. The Model 3 is also VERY impressively efficient.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I think I've become addicted. I'm waiting for my SEC fix and not doing well during this silent period.

 

[Duffer]

HA HA this is GREAT!

Tesla is the Rabbit.

"Follow the white rabbit" quote from The Matrix

I wasn't watching, but I'm told Jim Cramer just ranted on CNBC against Tesla and Musk, saying that anyone who buys a Tesla is an idiot and that Musk has to go to jail or the US no longer has a working justice system.

Which is weird, because I watched him just a couple weeks ago say that he wanted to buy a Tesla.

Hint to Jim: Angrily demanding on national television that a judge rule in a particular manner may not have the effect you're looking for.

To be fair, his masters require such antics.

 

[Thekiwi]

I don't think it would be telling of much other than Tesla's current production/logistics capacity.

This is a first quarter of Europe/China deliveries with a lot of queued up demand plus the first quarter of SR production.

I believe they said SR arrives to Europe 6 months later(and China will produce their own in 6-8 months) so that makes it look like there's enough demand in N.A. to consume 2 quarters worths of SRs. So, Q3 might be a first quarter in N.A. where the pre-existing demand is satisfied, so they have enough spare capacity to send SRs to Europe.
IF there's a slow down of demand in N.A., then Europe will likely consume all the Q3 SR production.

So, I think Q4 is actually the first quarter where pre-existing demand is satisfied and we're looking at a new/sustained demand. Which is not a constant and may grow per any additional demand levers engaged or marketing by M3 penetration starting to give results.

Don’t forget “Rest of world” - namely the wealthy rcountries that are not yet able to get any version fo the Model 3: England and the other Europe countries not yet served, Japan, South Korea, Australia/New Zealand.

And then there are the top 3-5% of the population in the less wealthy countries in the rest of the world which can still afford a Tesla.

All up there is still hundreds of millions more potential buyers yet to be served.

 

[S3XY]

And look what else he CREATED.... I am sorry I just love that picture...

FTFY