Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

What's worse than giving away a Tesla moot to other EV companies is that many of their EVs are not suitable for charging at a Tesla supercharger. Their charge ports are situated in such a way that they have to occupy two spots to even be able to reach the socket with the charging cable. Among them the E-Tron (left in the picture below), Taycan (second from the left), ID.3 (right) and ID.4. Second from the right is a Model 3. The ID.3 and ID.4 have their charging port on the wrong side, which means no other car can charge next to them.

So Tesla adapter will need long cord. More expensive, bulky. Sucks to be them.

 

[Boomer19]

What's worse than giving away a Tesla moot to other EV companies is that many of their EVs are not suitable for charging at a Tesla supercharger. Their charge ports are situated in such a way that they have to occupy two spots to even be able to reach the socket with the charging cable. Among them the E-Tron (left in the picture below), Taycan (second from the left), ID.3 (right) and ID.4. Second from the right is a Model 3. The ID.3 and ID.4 have their charging port on the wrong side, which means no other car can charge next to them.

so now we have to worry about being ICE’d and ‘Munsoned’ (? for lack of better term…i vote Munsoned) by those who bought the wrong EV?!?!? hells gonna break loose on twitter as soon as one of the “darlings” has a tantrum due to having to wait for an audi to charge

“sorry i’m late honey, i was Munsoned at the SC by some fool in an etron!”

 

[MP3Mike]

What about Adapters ? to connect the sleek Tesla charging plug to the clumsy and bigly CCS socket? Should owners buy them from Tesla shop?

Also curious how will Tesla SCs will understand CCS protocol?

In Europe all of the Tesla Superchargers already have a CCS plug. No adapter is necessary. (The 3&Y have a CCS port, while the S&X require an adapter to use a CCS charger or V3 Supercharger.)

I assume that Tesla updated the SCs to talk the CCS protocol as well as the Tesla Supercharger protocol.

 

[mongo]

In Europe all of the Tesla Superchargers already have a CCS plug. No adapter is necessary. (The 3&Y have a CCS port, while the S&X require an adapter to use a CCS charger or V3 Supercharger.)

I assume that Tesla updated the SCs to talk the CCS protocol as well as the Tesla Supercharger protocol.

Protocol has been in there as shown by the non-Teslas that were (briefly) able to charge last year.
Tesla V3 Superchargers Surprisingly Charge Other EVs For Free

 

[Paul_SF]

Just wait until I change my rocket to one that points up. That's when the SP will really take off.

We'Re Waiting GIF - Wel - Discover & Share GIFs

Click to view the GIF

tenor.com

 

[mars_or_bust]

This very high - ripe for a split - stock price is I think also a killer for naked shorts, as they realize there is a great danger of a stock split happening on a very short notice. So it is actually not important to have a split, just the overhanging danger is likely causing a lot of naked short positions closing.

 

[Stretch2727]

Worse than giving away a Tesla moot to other EV companies is that many of their EVs are not suitable for charging at a Tesla supercharger. Their charge ports are situated in such a way that they have to occupy two spots to even be able to reach the socket with the charging cable. Among them the E-Tron (left in the picture below), Taycan (second from the left), ID.3 (right) and ID.4. Second from the right is a Model 3. The ID.3 and ID.4 have their charging port on the wrong side, which means no other car can charge next to them.

Thanks for the picture. This has been my concern for a while. They are going to loose capacity and piss off a lot of Tesla owners.

Maybe they will only open at stations that are way underutilized.

Maybe they will sell car specific adaptors which they will need in the US anyway as the superchargers here do not have CCS cables.

 

[wws]

so now we have to worry about being ICE’d and ‘Munsoned’ (? for lack of better term…i vote Munsoned) by those who bought the wrong EV?!?!? hells gonna break loose on twitter as soon as one of the “darlings” has a tantrum due to having to wait for an audi to charge

“sorry i’m late honey, i was Munsoned at the SC by some fool in an etron!”

Imagine finding a spot where you can hog up two or three stalls to charge - because the charge port is in a bad spot. Then Teslas pull in on both sides and block you from leaving...

 

[Nocturnal]

Investing is much more about psychology than finance/business. One of my best friends has been in Tesla nearly as long as I have, not to the same degree of exposure though and he often gets in and out. He had closed out his position sometime before the SP500 inclusion and couldn't understand how I wasn't selling all of my shares when it was in the $800s or so last year because my cost basis was so low.

He had a few options purchased in Feb 2021, and some shares he bought in the $600s. Through the summer he often remarked that it felt like a waste to hold because "his money could be in something else that was gaining". He sold out of everything again in the mid $900s last week. Next time I visit him the drinks will be on me I think.

Imagine finding a spot where you can hog up two or three stalls to charge - because the charge port is in a bad spot. Then Teslas pull in on both sides and block you from leaving...

US cars will need an adapter, so presumably that adapter will have a couple feet of cord built in.

 

[generalenthu]

Yeah I guess you're right. Or you could say there's no time value in a deep ITM call option anyway. For example a Jan2023 $500 strike call option costs $658 right now (TSLA230120C00500000 (TSLA230120C00500000) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance) which is basically the cost of TSLA minus the 500 strike.

Jan 2023 500 put goes for 25 bucks and change. That is exactly how much time value you're leaving on the table.

If you have no tax considerations, it is a way better idea to sell the call and buy the shares with the proceeds + the money you were going to use to exercise the options.

Another option is to sell the Jan 2023 put at the same strike and pocket the cash. Come that time, you will own the stock regardless of the price. Above 500, your stock call gets exercised. Below 500 the owner of the put will exercise their right to put shares to you. This position is called a "synthetic" and is practically equivalent to owning the stock. This is often times called the put call parity.

The only scenario where this early exercise makes sense is if you're looking to start your long-term capital gains tax clock in the US. But since you're not US based, you should probably hit up someone familiar with the rules in your country.

PS: The deep out of the money puts IMO are a good deal to sell. The put prices remained firm as IV shot up along with higher stock price. Conversely early exercise now means you do leave significant amount of money on the table.

 

[advocate8]

The superior road trip charging of a Tesla is the easiest way to explain to an EV newbie why they probably don't want to buy anything else but I would NOT list it as the main selling point. Just because it's easier to explain and understand doesn't mean it's the main reason to buy a Tesla.

Buyers want value. When you buy an EV from the leader in EV technology you reduce your risk and get a superior product. When I'm buying a new car I want to buy the best quality car for the money I can get. I know that Tesla doesn't cheap out on components that you can't see. Even in 2018 I knew they wouldn't go out of business and I couldn't say the same thing about Nissan or GM. I don't want a laggy touchscreen or confusing user interface. I want a car that delights. I don't want a short range, a longer range minimizes the chances I'll even need to Supercharge.

That said, today's news that a non-Tesla will only be able to use a sub-set of the Supercharger locations actually strengthens, not weakens, the Supercharger advantage. As drivers of non-Tesla start to use the Tesla Network they will invariably be exposed to more convenient charging locations that are still off-limits to them. This will strengthen, not weaken, the Tesla Supercharger advantage because it will make non-Tesla drivers aware that they are not getting the full Tesla Supercharging experience. It's like giving a little bit of crack to a crack head. A little bit just makes them want more. That's on top of the fact that it's always more fun to know you're getting a good deal on those electrons! If legacy auto had the first and most extensive fast-charging network they would guard it's exclusivity like their life depended upon it. Tesla knows how big the potential EV market is and how big their lead is. Accelerating the switch to EV's will only strengthen Tesla. By opening much of the network to all, while keeping some locations exclusive, Tesla demonstrates who has real foresight. Tesla doesn't look down the road 2-3 years, they are looking a decade or more out, to a time when fast charging will be ubiquitous anyway.

Tesla investors who worried Tesla would become demand limited did not make the kind of returns that those of us who knew demand would not be a problem. Because those investors could not see the obvious truth, they either sold out early or only maintained a small position. Some people thought the 'competition was coming' was just a matter of time. They believed the 'Tesla killers' would ramp to high volume and gut Tesla's ability to sell cars. But they ignored legacy autos problem of cost to produce and poor value offered to the consumer. The Supercharger Network is only a small part of the Tesla advantage.

Tesla will def be demand limited if he doesn’t pop out they equivalent of the Model 2 at some point.

 

[Englishman]

Thanks for the picture. This has been my concern for a while. They are going to loose capacity and piss off a lot of Tesla owners.

Maybe they will only open at stations that are way underutilized.

Maybe they will sell car specific adaptors which they will need in the US anyway as the superchargers here do not have CCS cables.

Perhaps new supercharger stations could have bollards between spaces to stop this happening... perhaps positioned just so rear doors of Tesla's can open, but stops parking across spaces... hmmm

 

[thesmokingman]

Another insane day!

 

[Richard34212]

I thought it couldn't get any better when I took delivery of My Model S and I got to drive the best, most exciting, car in the world.

Then I thought it couldn't get any better when I installed my Tesla Solar which powers my entire house - and Model S - and the power company gives ME a credit at the end of the year.

And now I think it can't get any better as I've just joined the "Teslanaire" club.

I don't know what to say except thank you Elon, the entire Tesla team, and especially this incredible board without which I know this never would have been possible!

Can it get any better?

Elon Won!

 

[willow_hiller]

First review I've seen of a Supercharger from a non-Tesla. Some key details:

1. Membership seems to be priced very reasonably. They seemed to react like subscribing at 13 EUR per month was a no-brainer.
2. They seemed very happy with the experience, calling it great multiple times.
3. They were told by Tesla employees on site that if this pilot goes well, they plan to open the Supercharger network Europe-wide in the next couple of months.

 

[jhm]

No camping at $1170. Repeat, no camping at $1170.

Next camp out at $1700.

 

[MP3Mike]

Thanks for the picture. This has been my concern for a while. They are going to loose capacity and piss off a lot of Tesla owners.

Maybe they will only open at stations that are way underutilized.

They are only opening some Superchargers for now, and the leaked strings from the app mentions that some cars won't be able to use the Superchargers. (They also say to not park sideways.)

It will be interesting to see if they actively block the cars that can't park properly in a Supercharger stall, or if they just assume good faith.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There are 1.004 Billion shares outstanding and only 2 Billion shares authorized.
Not enough shares to do a 2 for 1 split.

True, but Tesla's corporate bylaws issue the BoD to issue up to 20% more shares than currently authorized, so a 2:1 split is technically possibly prior to a general shareholders vote.

There are a number of factors to consider, some or all my apply in the event. I think Tesla holds off until:

1. Elon's 2018 shares have been issued (no reason to spike his tax bill in advance)
2. Short-sellers put another "Burry" on TSLA; Yank their chains HARD (no mercy)
3. DJIA/DOW-30 addition is imminent (requires the SP to be in a ~$100-200 range)
4. Tesla *may* decide that a Cap Raise is advantageous; Split triggers a prior runup

So there are technical reasons to hold off on a split, but I'll add this psychological reason to the matrix: the mere POSSIBILITY of a 2:1 split (or a 5:1, or a 10:1 split) is like the Sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of the shortzes. They are genuinely FRIGHTENED for their future is Tesla does another Share Dividend and the have to fight eachother and the momo traders for each increasingly valuable share.

Extending this period of fear, uncertainty and doubt for short sellers is Schadenfreude of the highest order: Well worth the time.

Cheers!

 

[jbcarioca]

When volume is light, there is definitely manipulation. We are not in a trading period where much manipulation can happen.

Probably not, but today the volume has been almost entirely smallish trades with a handful of trades between 1000 and 2000 shares but almost all around 100 or so. Hence this is nearly all retail activity. No matter how much we all adore it, there is a typical Monday going on. The one huge difference is that FUD is taking the back seat to Facts, and the Facts are all positive.

We really still have a large quantity of index funds that have underbought TSLA.

We also have strong probability of having investment grade within this year. Investment grade makes little material difference to TSLA borrowing costs because there si so little TSLA debt anyway, even less subject to rating agency influence. So, why care? For a vey large number of institutional shareholders their own investment policies preclude significant holdings below investment grade. Even for those who can do so, many are subject to 'prudent man(sic) rules' imported by regulation or policy. These will suddenly become interested when TSLA reaches investment grade.

I therefore argue that, regardless of EPS, many potential buyers are waiting for higher ratings. Many of the index investors are waiting for the peak to burst or something similar.

Within the next two months we will see production from Austin and Grüneheide, increased production of S and X, and continuing positive news about 4680's building on the recent Panasonic announcements.

I almost never suggest a bull run can long continue. This time I think most news is very positive.

Oddly, the US political climate is likely to not have major effect, not even the Texas refusal to include Tesla in incentives nor allow direct sales. Tesla repeatedly shows that such apparent barriers do not even make decent speed bumps. The NTSB story may indeed cause some angst, but that, like all the other issues, seems to be ignored by even jaundiced analysts.

The only thing that really would hit the price probably is a serious health or other problem with Elon Musk. If it were possible to have key person insurance I'd happily pay a premium for that security.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Regarding sharing of the superchargers - it is a great development for many reasons. Among other(some have been mentioned):
- Great Tesla PR to the target audience. They may have bought a ID4 now, but the constant Tesla app PR, and the knowledge they only have access to part of the network will easily lead to the next purchase to be a Tesla.
- Charging patterns of individual car types can give Tesla probably very valuable information of non-Tesla car types - their usage, ranges, habits, etc. This could lead to focus of showroom centers in particular locations, perhaps even individualized adds on the Tesla app for these users for purchase of Tesla cars.
- It disentivises any other company making their own network, handing to Tesla an effective monopoly on the charging network. More great PR, more large profit form outside Tesla.
- Having a monopoly on the charging network would make the creation of a Tesla food chain at chargers very profitable indeed. This has been hinted, and I would not be surprised if it happens in a few years, perhaps with TeslaBots as waiters. This would also be a great advertisement and practical demonstration for TeslaBots - think how great the Boring company is a great advertisement for Teslas.