Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[generalenthu]

Looks like no form 4 yet and we're not gonna get one tonight. Markets will be unhappy with so much of volume and the sale still not done, and no idea if it even began. Have to agree with Gary here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1458222728939548674

Of course these are the typical Tesla / Elon shenanigans that keeps both volatility and options premiums high. Can't really complain about that (and even a net positive for cautious premium sellers) and this is nothing compared to what they delivered in the grand scheme of things.

On to another day!

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

Crying over spilt milk.

My entire life has been one big risk. Started when my grandmother scolded my mother for bring a child into this world as the world turned away from WWII and the atomic bomb.

I buy and sell long, very long with Tesla (TSLA). My story with Tesla has been a bloody one (not speaking in Queens English). But then my military career was bloody; even though I never saw combat. I missed out on Reagan’s island war. I used to joke that my jeep trailer was filled with bandages for sucking chest wounds.

Think of it this way ~ if we enter the new year lower, then my RMD will be lower. Win Win ~ I am forced to sell fewer shares once the price goes up.

As I told my college instructor back in 1969, I do not care about money. He proceeded to make fun of my comment as I was wearing a Pendleton that my mother had bought me. I have the last laugh, I just bought my own Pendleton thanks to the workers at Tesla.

I am looking forward to our college graduation gift to our grandkids ~ a new Model 3 or Y of their choice. In the mean time as I deal with my RMD their stock accounts will grow with them (9 & 11). I will journal chairs to them within the law.

If you need to cry, cry. Otherwise suck it up and keep going. Or quit and tell everyone it’s no big deal. When we can stack all the Tesla’s ever made on top of each other all the way to Mars, maybe, maybe Tesla will be done growing.

 

[The Accountant]

Looks like no form 4 yet and we're not gonna get one tonight.

Kimbal filed his Form 4 at 9:22pm on the day he sold. So there is still a chance it gets filed tonight.
Let's see what happens in the next hour. It's still 6pm in California.

Real Time Insider Data - DATAROMA - Investing

Edit - All the Form 4 are filed by Aaron Beckman, Tesla's Senior Manager of Stock Administration . . .hoping he's at his desk completing the forms now

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I was depressed about the share price today, then I drove home from work and tried the FSD beta on the way back and then I realized that no one else has anything like this.

No, I'm not going to sell the company which is developing this kind of technology.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I was thinking about this a bit more, and I admit I do not understand "attempt to bury" part. I would assume that by now MM and HdgFunds would be to smart not to bet on long term SP trajectory. I can see how they could benefit from and likely generate volatility, making money on rapid moves in both directions, like wolves chasing sheep up and down the hill and nipping at the stragglers.

Are you saying the MM and HF still had net short position coming into this week?

I maybe missing how block trades work, is it possible that HF sold short large blocks last week to satisfy demand from active asset managers and now backfill that short positions at depressed prices?

A few points:

• "attempt to burry" is a slap-back at the Jan b.s. by the famous shortz
• MMs and hedgies do not rely on being "smart" to make money:
  • they make it the old fashioned way
  • they steal it from mom'n'pop investors/CNB-see-er's
  • those wot make the rulez, rule
• Of course they're "net short"; and we only get a glimpse of how many phantom shares are in circulation during Corporate Events like a share dividend or Index addition (any action that thwart's MM's ability to create conterfeit shares). This is huge, AND its completely opague to the individual retail investor
• I don't think "block trades" have anything to do with this price action: it's all about finding an excuse (GAWK! E-TWEET!) and POUNCING on it. Or, 'the SP went down because it always goes down in Q1'
• Read the parable of the Scorpion and the Frog: MMs gonna lie, cheat 'n' steal nomatter what. It's their nature. No need to overthink what they are.

Regards,
Lodger

 

[Mengy]

If you need to cry, cry. Otherwise suck it up and keep going. Or quit and tell everyone it’s no big deal. When we can stack all the Tesla’s ever made on top of each other all the way to Mars, maybe, maybe Tesla will be done growing.

I don't think Tesla will be done growing even in my lifetime, and I'm near 50.

Tesla is a company built on changing the world in big ways, and my hunch is they won't stop with EV's, solar, battery storage, robo taxis, nor even humanoid robots. I think they'll just keep going with the disruption in a myriad of new ways we aren't even talking about today yet.

And ten or twenty years from now, today's little $160 share price drop will look absolutely hilarious in retrospect. I think your grandkids are going to be very appreciative of the shares you've bought for them presently.

 

[Boomer19]

the misfits that come out of the woodwork during times like these are priceless. their second of glory and how they celebrate it
…just can’t handle it i guess

 

[Artful Dodger]

I rolled my Jan 23 2225 CCs to Jan 23 1900 for like 26$ per contract.

I am a Call buyer now ... going shopping

The boss approves:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Roll them https://t.co/F2rXGcz964" / Twitter

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

A few points:

• "attempt to burry" is a slap-back at the Jan b.s. by the famous shortz
• MMs and hedgies do not rely on being "smart" to make money:
  • they make it the old fashioned way
  • they steal it from mom'n'pop investors/CNB-see-er's
  • those wot make the rulez, rule
• Of course they're "net short"; and we only get a glimpse of how many phantom shares are in circulation during Corporate Events like a share dividend or Index addition (any action that thwart's MM's ability to create conterfeit shares). This is huge, AND its completely opague to the individual retail investor
• I don't think "block trades" have anything to do with this price action: it's all about finding an excuse (GAWK! E-TWEET!) and POUNCING on it. Or, 'the SP went down because it always goes down in Q1'
• Read the parable of the Scorpion and the Frog: MMs gonna lie, cheat 'n' steal nomatter what. It's their nature. No need to overthink what they are.

Regards,
Lodger

So what you're saying is Wall Street is a blood sucking vampire squid with no morals and unbridled greed?
I agree ....and the nice suits and eloquent speaking style do not hide the ugly truth.

But hey it's a "free market" right?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So what you're saying is Wall Street is a blood sucking vampire squid with no morals and unbridled greed?
I agree ....and the nice suits and eloquent speaking style do not hide the ugly truth.

But hey it's a "free market" right?

Yeah, I was gonna go with 'Murder Hornets', but you do have a valid point... Thank-you.

Cheers!

 

[MP3Mike]

We truly live in a simulation View attachment 731241

And apparently your simulation isn't quite synced up with reality:

 

[StealthP3D]

EV subsidies are definitely NOT a waste of money when they end up with Tesla. I can’t think of a better place for that money to go. That extra demand will cause Tesla’s U.S. cash flow to increase by nearly the amount of the subsidy.

At first glance it appeared awfully biased in a Tesla-centric way to say "I can't think of a better place for that money to go". But upon further reflection, I actually agree with it. The money could not go to a better place. I won't go into the reasons why, but I finally concluded the subsidies are still a waste of money because so much of the money will go towards other automakers and only about half (perhaps less) would end up with Tesla.

I'm sure some of you are thinking that comment sounds awfully Tesla-centric so let me explain:

It's never a good idea to subsidize behavior that shouldn't be happening. Tesla is going to expand as rapidly as possible and build millions of EV's with or without the subsidies. The speed of their expansion is not limited by money but human resources and perhaps mineral and infrastructure resources. However, the subsidies constitute life support for automakers still cranking out ICE cars by the millions. The goal is to get rid of ICE cars, not extend them into the future as far as possible by keeping companies afloat that are no longer offering the things the market really wants at prices the market can afford. Anything that subsidizes legacy auto is going to extend the amount of time they can continue to sell ICE cars. We should not subsidize unwanted behavior. Sometimes bankruptcy is the best solution. The money can go to temporarily displaced workers while viable companies can take up the slack.

These subsidies encourage corporate cultures that are not meeting market needs to continue doing what they have been doing and this is a very bad thing. It promotes mediocrity (and worse). The time for subsidies is long past. Everyone had an equal chance to make use of the original subsidies designed to kick-start EV's. The expression "You snooze, you lose" comes to mind.

 

[Boomer19]

Seems to be working, at least 8 times out of 10

current PT 860-880

i’m guessing 100 pts higher than you. let’s see who wins

 

[Discoducky]

I don't think Tesla will be done growing even in my lifetime, and I'm near 50.

Tesla is a company built on changing the world in big ways, and my hunch is they won't stop with EV's, solar, battery storage, robo taxis, nor even humanoid robots. I think they'll just keep going with the disruption in a myriad of new ways we aren't even talking about today yet.

And ten or twenty years from now, today's little $160 share price drop will look absolutely hilarious in retrospect. I think your grandkids are going to be very appreciative of the shares you've bought for them presently.

Everyone please consider up- voting @Mengy post so goes into merit. This is why I joined Tesla in 2014, why I hired the best engineers in the whole world to the Autopilot team, why I got hit twice riding my bike to work from Fremont to Palo Alto as I was emphatic about sustainable transportation, why we won't ever have an opportunity like this in our lifetimes, why we can't ever go back to ICE domination...etc. off soap box ...

 

[JustMe]

i’m guessing 100 pts higher than you. let’s see who wins

We are all winners here!

 

[TNEVol]

I have owned TSLA for many years and at 76 am living well on the gains but I have to sell some occasionally for living expenses. I sold some at around 1200 for 2022 but now cannot resist the possibility of sub 1000 shares. Actually I put in an order for a substantial buy but frankly I hope it doesn't exercise because of the many of posters who agonize over this soon to be forgotten drop. Take your time and look at the stock from a 5 year prospective rather than one or two days.

 

[GOVA]

I have owned TSLA for many years and at 76 am living well on the gains but I have to sell some occasionally for living expenses. I sold some at around 1200 for 2022 but now cannot resist the possibility of sub 1000 shares. Actually I put in an order for a substantial buy but frankly I hope it doesn't exercise because of the many of posters who agonize over this soon to be forgotten drop. Take your time and look at the stock from a 5 year prospective rather than one or two days.

Wisdom at its best.

 

[MartinAustin]

I am an infrequent trader, and bought SQ at $68 during its COVID dip last year. It climbed nicely but has been treading water in a range for about a year. My TSLA has massively outperformed SQ over the period. My plan was to get rid of SQ when Impossible Foods becomes available and buy that. However... today's 12% fall was too enticing, especially as the market was about to close... so about 5min before the close I sold all my SQ and bought TSLA around $1020/$1021. Hoping there is a rebound tomorrow! And not too worried if there is not. I sat back calmly while it fell from 900 to whatever it was, $580? It will always fall spectacularly, but it will always climb back. I first learned this in 2013 when it fell from $193 to $116 or so after some fires. (then it climbed to $256 or so)

I share everyone's assessment that Tesla will continue to expand and grow. Only inappropriate government interventions can slow it.

p.s. my other two stocks are NVNXF and TLGRF, both purchased after their CEOs were interviewed on The Limiting Factor

 

[StealthP3D]

It DOES matter for short term forecasting of this quarters and next years results, but whether you think that matters with the stock at this level is probably the debate. I don‘t have anything against anyone that thinks it does make a big difference and should cause a big move up in the stock price, but I would only point out that if anyone thinks Shanghai producing an extra 5k in a month warrants a big jump in share price, then they therefore argue that the opposite should also be true: if Shanghai didnt meet production estimates in a particular month then it deserves a big drop in share price. Myself I don’t think that is true at all as I think the long term production goals being met are what matter, not short term movements.

For purposes of valuing a fast growing company it's the average rate of growth that matters. But determining that can be tricky and so a slow-down in the production rate might not have the same impact on assumed rates going forward as an increase (depending upon the reasons for slowdown). A factory being shut down for a few weeks due to COVID is assumed to be a temporary slowdown and supply chain constraints might be judged as temporary problems as well. But going gang-busters while other companies are experiencing slow-downs due to supply constraints can inform us of the likely rates going forward.

A key point is that Berlin and Austin are not on-line yet so increases in production rates now in existing factories bode particularly well for the productivity of the two new factories and will naturally have an out-sized weight on valuations because they indicate what is possible and how adept Tesla is at continually improving production processes and spreading fixed costs over more units. There is a multiplier effect that should be at play here.

Best of all, I doubt we have seen the best in efficiency yet! It's a fast-changing target and this is why legacy auto is in big trouble. Disruptions don't happen naturally, on their own, they require a disruptor. Tesla is that and more! You better bet your sweet behind production rate increases matter! That's why legacy auto is shaking in their boots and begging Uncle Sam for more money!

 

[Tyler34]

And apparently your simulation isn't quite synced up with reality:

View attachment 731281

Blame google, who is still showing 1024.