Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Eurasia.

No, you are ...

Just one warning: if you plan to do active trading rather than just buy and hold, do it in the Roth and IRA accounts but NOT your regular account. Otherwise you might mistakenly create a wash sale on which you can never recapture your loss. Bonus you also don't have short-term capital gains taxes on Roth/IRA accounts.

Not so, you can't claim the loss then, but the basis change is tracked until you can sell without the wash rule kicking in. Wash-Sale Rule
Agree on the other items, though watch out for the settlement times on retirement accounts.

That is in Grand Rapids though and didn't someone post he is landing in Flint? Of course Flint had the water crisis he gave money for but also close to Orion.

Flight destination is Flint Bishop Airport (FNT):

N628TS - Gulfstream G650 [6177] - Flightradar24​

The airport is just 2 miles away from GM's Flint factories: assembly, engine factory, etc.

There's nothing else there that would attract Elon's private plane, AFAICS.

Bishop airport is just outside Durand (20miles), home of project TIM. Durand was recently hit by a tornado.
Project Tim Information - City of Durand
Reported tornado and damage near Durand posted on social media
Also a short drive from Lansing, if the new Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State want to talk Tesla in Michigan...

 

[traxila]

New Clues on Tesla Sales Point to a Recent Drop

The yellow rag that is the NYT is at it again. Thanks for the update fellas....

 

[jerry33]

Can some one please answer this . I have never taken a delivery from tesla but have seen some online, i am wondering why the majority of the explaining of how the car and touch screen works isn't explained in a video tutorial from the touch screen itself. eg if it was showing you how to turn on the fan you would here a voice directing you and where to press highlighted on the screen. Im asking this in reference to the delivery hell they keep ending up in it seems this would allow them to deliver cars much more efficiently

Videos like this should be watched before taking delivery (I recall watching them several times, along with reading the online manual and everything else I could get my hands on), but it can't be assumed that everyone will. I think most people don't want to (are too impatient to) watch a video in the delivery centre--they just want to drive the car. It makes sense to have some hands on practice so they get home safely--and even then there are a couple of examples where the person didn't make it out of the Tesla parking lot intact.

 

[Pras]

No, you are ...


Not so, you can't claim the loss then, but the basis change is tracked until you can sell without the wash rule kicking in. Wash-Sale Rule
Agree on the other items, though watch out for the settlement times on retirement accounts.





Bishop airport is just outside Durand (20miles), home of project TIM. Durand was recently hit by a tornado.
Project Tim Information - City of Durand
Reported tornado and damage near Durand posted on social media
Also a short drive from Lansing, if the new Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State want to talk Tesla in Michigan...

On short term gain, I agree that if you want to trade in IRA vs personal, IRA is the way to go. For me the 52% marginal tax doesn’t give much incentive to trade in personal account. However, I still use personal account for TSLA just to increase my exposure when there is a dip like now.

 

[Fact Checking]

I guess nobody here is interested in buying a 19 year old Toyota Corolla diesel? Very cheap!

Please, on your way home with your new Model 3, be careful with the accelerator pedal !!

 

[KarenRei]

Please, on your way home with your new Model 3, be careful with the accelerator pedal !!

Lol, if Nico needs a caution, I can't imagine what sort of caution I'm going to need (driving around a Gen 1 Honda Insight with ~750km on it and a dead HV pack.... it accelerates like a train 0-100kph in around 21 seconds if I redline it, and over 100 seconds if I shift normally but still floor it).

 

[hacer]

I've done better in an all-volunteer project with far more users. I am not judging them too harshly. You are wrong.

Did your volunteer project operate with hardware that had 2^20 different variants on which you ran full regression testing?

 

[jerry33]

Sure, but they've been in permitting mode for a very long time. They're in stasis, effectively.

Less than a year. The one in Rivière-du-Loup, Quebec was in permitting for just short of two years before being built. It takes some places a long time to get approval.

 

[Fact Checking]

New Clues on Tesla Sales Point to a Recent Drop

The yellow rag that is the NYT is at it again. Thanks for the update fellas....

No meaningful new data in the NYT article, just the entirely unsurprising observation that February DMV registrations of Teslas are down seasonally, like they have been down in the U.S. every single February, for almost every car model, since the beginning of time.

Just to be super informative the NYT does not point out that it's a seasonal pattern, nor that it affects other carmakers as well, nor do they point out that Tesla sold 4,700 vehicles in Canada alone (a 10x increase over 2018 sales) and sent a dozen ships to Europe and China with tens of thousands of vehicles. Nor was it newsworthy for them that about ~20% of the world's automotive markets still cannot order the Model 3, at all.

They did manage to regurgitate a fair amount of no-demand FUD though, so if you want a list of the most recent TSLAQ talking points on the topic then go ahead and click!

 

[Fact Checking]

Lol, if Nico needs a caution, I can't imagine what sort of caution I'm going to need (driving around a Gen 1 Honda Insight with ~750km on it and a dead HV pack.... it accelerates like a train 0-100kph in around 21 seconds if I redline it, and over 100 seconds if I shift normally but still floor it).

You driving a car with a regular 0-60 acceleration time measured in minutes is the most horrible thing I have read all week, and I read a lot.

Karen, when you receive your Model 3, you must enable Chill Mode!

 

[Donatas]

I saw some people talking about how Tesla owners could submit ideas/requests to Tesla. Sorry if it was already mentioned but there is a website ( https://moretesla.com/ ) which tries to do at least some part of it. Confirmed Tesla cars' owners can put feature requests and bug reports there and they use voting system to prioritize. It's a fan website though so no idea if it reaches Tesla's ears.

 

[cricketman]

You Karen, when you receive your Model 3, must enable Chill Mode!

Yes, I drove with Chill mode on for the first few days so I could get used to the car, but since then I can't take it off sport mode. The kids and I test the 0-100kmh time every morning on the way to school. We count the seconds together

 

[NicoV]

Please, on your way home with your new Model 3, be careful with the accelerator pedal !!

Thanks, but I’m driving a Model S for 3 years, so I know what to expect

 

[Thekiwi]

So what happens to the stock price today if Musk does turn up at the GM announcement today to announce a battery/drivetrain supply partnership? (Flashback to Karen’s tease about a Tesla parnership recently)

Wil it finally be a screw the shorts on Friday expiry event?

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon's team asked for 5 days and 10 pages I believe

How come the SEC got a whole week and wrote a novel? Seems to be a double-standard there...

 

[jerry33]

Flight destination is Flint Bishop Airport (FNT):
There's nothing else there that would attract Elon's private plane, AFAICS.

A May/Dec romance with this guy.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Maybe the reasons for the recent temporary price decrease were to evaluate the price elasticity of demand (how much demand increases when lowering prices) so they actually know how the markets expand/saturate, but also test the company's ability to scale up in such a tense period (esp. after the recent lay-off).

They must have collected some crucial data about elasticity already (and compared them with prior sales), and they must be trying to process the orders before the end of the quarters. It's a good way to assess the company's ability to grow 50% YoY under all kind of conditions, or they will have to revise their plans if the market isn't there (no need to cut costs so much is it isn't the biggest factor to increase demand) or if the company can't do without a large sales force.

Edit: They might also watching how this blitzkrieg affects the industry: are the Germans urging the transition to EV or threw in the towel and squeeze as much profits from ICEs as possible when facing a fall in demand? does Toyota continue kicking the can down the road? will Ford/GM asking Tesla for help in speeding up their electrification? how much will cell manufacturers invest in plants and supply chain to support Tesla's growth? etc.

They might prefer to forgo some profits and take the industry by surprise, while the markets expect Tesla to raise capital or at least be obsessed with profitability.

Very good points, thank you.

Dan

 

[ReflexFunds]

Barely coherent as usual (actually, that's too generous, almost completely incoherent), but doesn't sound promising:

Trump then segued to the European auto sector. “We get a 25 percent tariff on that segment - that’s our best segment by far. And yes, we will absolutely be able to keep it - not only keep it going, I really think we have tremendous potential,” he told the network in the interview, which was taped on Thursday.

 

[Fact Checking]

How come the SEC got a whole week and wrote a novel? Seems to be a double-standard there...

The judge gave them the 5 days and 8 out of 10 pages that Elon's team asked for. That's all they wanted.

Elon's lawyers don't need that much space - their main reply was powerful enough and was not weakened by the SEC's reply IMHO, but the SEC also raised at least one significant new legal and factual argument which Elon's lawyers wanted to address: the history of the settlement contract negotiations.

It's entirely normal for replies to get smaller and smaller, because they have to stay within scope. The SEC's motion was an exception - which is why Elon's team got another round.

See my longer reply here:

Here's the order granting the sur-reply motion:

Order on Motion for Leave to File Document – #32 in United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Musk (S.D.N.Y., 1:18-cv-08865) – CourtListener.com​

Note the following details:

• The judge's order is going to pierce through any confidentiality agreements (NDAs) the settlement talks might be covered by. We might be able to read those details!
• 8 pages instead of 10 pages is a usual "please make this short" signal from the judge - in fact she could easily have added other restrictions but didn't.
• The extra 2 pages are not really missing: if Elon's team really needs more space they can squeeze more arguments into footnotes. It's also common to ask for a bit more, expecting not to get the full filing length.
  
• The 8 pages limit does not include attachments/exhibits. This is important: Elon's lawyers can file as much evidence covering the SEC-broadened scope as they want to.
• Elon's lawyers got the 5 days they asked for: it's 110% probable that they were working on a sur-reply this week already, and would have attached those arguments to the filing on the 26th anyway. The order allowing them to file today gives those arguments more legal weight in the context of the flow of contempt of court motions.
• Cramer's attacks against Judge Nathan on CNBC didn't have the intended effect of scaring/misleading her.
• Elon's tweets to Cramer yesterday might also have had an effect of highlighting the connection between Cramer and short sellers.
  
• Speculation: the judge permitting this yesterday suggests that she was reading through the case and was checking the scope claims. She ultimately agreed with Elon's lawyers that the SEC's reply brief went beyond scope.
• While the SEC already indicated that they don't think an evidentiary hearing is necessary, they might reply again on the 26th in light of any extra evidence filed by Elon's lawyers today.

(@TNEVol, do you concur?)

TL;DR: very positive development IMO, the best possible outcome for this procedural step.

 

[Pras]

I also wonder if musk is considering buying the Ohio factory being closed by GM. Just a thought. It would be a big political winner.