Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

Testing 1060 for the millionth time this week...

 

[Nocturnal]

I really hope this isn't another slow bleed where we wind up back at $900 before we know it.

We picked up our Model Y exactly a year ago, so it has radar (but not used). I also have the latest FSD Beta and don't see anything unusual with phantom braking. I have seen where someone in front doesn't completely exit your lane when turning left and it can appear phantom, but it's clearly making sure the car in front is out of the path so you don't clip them. Some reactions are slower than mine, but speeding up since earlier days - and it reassures to me that it saw the vehicles that just cut in front of me.

I noticed a major increase in phantom braking on rural highways when I moved from regular autopilot with radar to FSD beta. Unusable at times, but I expect it is a temporary decrease in quality. Loving beta on surface streets though.

 

[jhm]

I think when we reach a certain age and have acquired a certain amount of knowledge and experience we become a bit encumbered with it all and want to apply everything we know to everything else. We also get really confident we know what we’re talking about.

The story then becomes, I remember when they said this about that, but it turned out different so best you listen to me, I’ve been around the block a few times. And you wouldn’t necessarily be wrong but you might now be entirely right either.

The competition is coming, huh? Well, I suppose if they say that for an additional 10 years, because they’ve been spouting it for basically that long already, the competition may finally get here. For those who believed competition was coming back in 2013 and waited to see what it looked like, well sucks to be them, huh?

My word of caution is that sometimes fortune favors the bold. That sometimes it is different. That sometimes it’s okay to wing it and take a chance, even a big chance. I can say that from experience.

We aren’t all supposed to take the same path, to experience the same things, to learn the same lessons. Somebody has to go down the unbeaten dark path and take on the monster. Thanks, Elon and Team for being brave enough on our behalf. I’m right behind you in case something tries to get past you.

Edit to add: you’re wrong; sometimes it does work out how you dreamed it would.

A tribe member once explained to a non-tribal friend, "We listen to our elders, not because they're always right, but because they have more experience being wrong."

 

[henchman24]

They finally got 1060 to break... 1040-1045ish should be the next line in the sand.

 

[winfield100]

Meaning Elon now will be selling even MORE shares to pay taxes??

@UncaNed
i don't think that is quite correct. from the figures, he seems to have realized about 2x the funds necessary so far for the shares sold so far for taxes owed so far.
he seems to only have realized about 45% of potential shares, but. i'm _not_ an accountant.
It looks like, using WAG he could end up with 9-10 million more shares, out of the ~23.7Million, pay taxes maybe have cash left over, but these all all "back of napkin" speculations

 

[woodisgood]

I noticed a major increase in phantom braking on rural highways when I moved from regular autopilot with radar to FSD beta. Unusable at times, but I expect it is a temporary decrease in quality. Loving beta on surface streets though.

There’s a bug in 10.5 that causes the vast majority of phantom braking on the highway (at least for me)…it’s fairly obvious to me what it is and I’m sure others have noticed it but I haven’t skimmed the FSD threads to see if it’s widely understood (just see “increased phantom braking on highway” complaints). Seems like an easy fix.

 

[ZachF]

What is max pain for today?

 

[Beltsbear]

Can we tell if these are installed? Or is this inventory ready to ship to clients? I suspect the latter, but confirmation would be helpful.

These are wrapped for shipping and not installed in any way.

 

[henchman24]

What is max pain for today?

Watching the ticker.

1100 still looks like the number, but 1050 is the next put wall.

 

[Beltsbear]

Am I the only one that sees Elon's share selling as a sort of "artificial short" in the way it is winding up the spring by suppressing the SP?

If he wraps up the selling by the end of the month, with two new factories coming online, brisk demand, and any other tricks unfolding in the near future, the SP for 2022 is looking as if it could potentially be quite the Plaid Pogo-stick set to run in Ludicrous mode, could it not?

This might very well lead to quite the Happy New Year indeed!

Perhaps we should place our orders for the hats, whistles, fireworks, and confetti now, just to be ready.

Unfortunately Elon's shares are real and the way they are being sold is the worst possible way for everyone involved except the people who are short TSLA. The only saving grace is that the sales are mostly done now.

 

[Buckminster]

MMD - just like old times.

 

[henchman24]

Unfortunately Elon's shares are real and the way they are being sold is the worst possible way for everyone involved except the people who are short TSLA. The only saving grace is that the sales are mostly done now.

It really isn't the worst possible way... the worst way would be a one day dump of all the shares.

 

[SOULPEDL]

There’s a bug in 10.5 that causes the vast majority of phantom braking on the highway (at least for me)…it’s fairly obvious to me what it is and I’m sure others have noticed it but I haven’t skimmed the FSD threads to see if it’s widely understood (just see “increased phantom braking on highway” complaints). Seems like an easy fix.

I don't use the freeways much (assuming that was too easy). I'll try some today. What's the setup?

 

[Unpilot]

So what you're really saying is Norway is down 12% and therefore Tesla is doomed to fail. Did I get the gist?

Essentially.

 

[traxila]

Unfortunately Elon's shares are real and the way they are being sold is the worst possible way for everyone involved except the people who are short TSLA. The only saving grace is that the sales are mostly done now.

Absolutely not. There are many reasons to take the ’froth’ out of the stock, from employee recruitment, to price stability, to battling political criticism in real ways that cannot be questioned, to raising cash for other renewable economy ventures, to providing buying opportunities for investors who actually believe that TSLA is going up a conservative 4X to 8X by the end of the decade.

Unless you believe the stock price has peaked and is down from here, I do not see the validity of your statement.

 

[Nocturnal]

Absolutely not. There are many reasons to take the ’froth’ out of the stock, from employee recruitment, to price stability, to battling political criticism in real ways that cannot be questioned, to raising cash for other renewable economy ventures, to providing buying opportunities for investors who actually believe that TSLA is going up a conservative 4X to 8X by the end of the decade.

Unless you believe the stock price has peaked and is down from here, I do not see the validity of your statement.

I've never bought the idea that Elon cares to push the price down to "let people buy in cheap". Especially given that this method of sale is not optimal to protect current shareholders. I certainly hope he doesn't prioritize new buyers over those of us who have held for years.

 

[growler23]

I have personally experienced the phantom braking issue and it was significant. I don't have FSD (a thank you to all you guys who are testing it for me - I'll let you tell me when it's ready), and the Traffic Aware Cruise Control that came with my 2021 Vision Model Y worked great in June when I first got it.
Then a software update broke it (chatter in the forums was about a big code merge related to City and Highway code coming together, unsure if it was the reason; unsure how the TACC code base relates to the FSD code base).
The worst incidents were driving on I-10 on my trip to Big Bend - NOT city streets. There were no clouds, and the sun was not low/blinding to any one sensor. Times when the car braked hard and unexpectedly were inconsistent; once there might have been a scrubby tree partial shadow on the road - maybe? There was no pattern to "oncoming" traffic presence; and anyway there is a LOT of space between eastbound and westbound I-10 in West Texas, so oncoming cars should not be a factor. I had to disable the TACC after the 4th hard braking incident and drive manually for hours on the straightest and easiest highway in Texas in my super advanced Model Y. Yes still my favorite car, but come on. Basic TACC worked better in my 2016 Prius, as well as when I first bought the Y.
There have been threads on this. It is not FUD, and it needs to be fixed, particularly for those of us who didn't sign up for a Beta anything. Here's my post in another thread on the topic. I eagerly await the update that makes this work as well as it did when I bought the car.
And no, I didn't sell any of my shares because of this, but fix it already! I don't doubt reports of this could become a share price hindrance.

I can't wait for the next update! Phantom braking is driving me nuts.

And again this morning, decelerated 15-20 mph, hung behind the vehicle in the adjacent lane for 15 seconds before it picked up speed and passed it.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Stop discussing phantom braking in this thread. This goes for new members and for old members who should know better. We have dozens of threads dedicated to FSD and Autopilot.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Naaa. Ford has learned from the Mach-E and is doing what they need to put out the EF150. It will be produced in volume in 2022. It is hard to know who will ship first. One thing for sure, by the END of 2022, Tesla will be making more Cybertrucks, not because Ford is a laggard, but because Tesla is planning much higher volumes and is able to get the batteries.

And here i am thinking the reason Tesla will be making more Cybertrucks is because of the engineering/manufacturing expertise they possess over EVERY single other legacy OEM.....along with the batteries of course

 

[Krugerrand]

View attachment 740142

I'm not yet in the 300k camp; my working model for Q4 has deliveries of 287k. But with what I have seen thus far for November, I may be joining the 300K Club soon.

300k for Q4 would be a 24% increase over Q3. The first markets to report November deliveries have Tesla in aggregate at +83% for the 2months of Q4 vs the 2 months of Q3.
View attachment 740145

We can't get carried away, we won't be at +83% vs Q3 when the quarter is over; much of this has to do with unwinding the delivery wave.
We will get a better understanding of whether 300k is achievable by monitoring the ships leaving Shanghai in December.
If Tesla puts vehicles on ships in late December (instead of delivering them in local China), those vehicles would appear in Europe in January.
December production delivered in January would not be a bad thing. This would help offset the lower margins in Berlin/Austin.

I’m in the 83,000 camp as usual. The overflow lot I drive by regularly has been virtually empty for the last week. Unwinding the wave? Demand issue?