Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jamaatta]

A real recal this time, 21.5K MIC Model Y's:

Tesla China recalls 21.5k Model Y over front and rear steering knuckle issues

Tesla China has issued a recall for 21,559 domestically-made Model Y due to a fault in the vehicle’s front and rear steering knuckles. The recall covers locally-manufactured Model Ys produced between February 4 and October 30, 2021. “Tesla Co., Ltd. filed a recall plan with the State...

www.teslarati.com

 

[mongo]

New Fremont flyover:

If the video is in real time (looks like it, or close to it), the cycle-time for the gigapress is currently at 1:46 minutes (opening at 7:26 to opening at 9:12).
That's 300k pieces/year with 100% uptime and 240k pieces/years with a more realistic 80% uptime.
But it generally looks like that the gigapress is not the limiting factor for production, since there are always plenty of finished castings around. If needed they might be able to increase the output.
So I think we can only assume that 240k/year is the lower limit per gigapress.

Things to consider, please correct me if the info is outdated:
Model 3 doesn't use the gigacastings yet (likely in a year or two).
Model Y from Fremont uses only a rear casting (so both gigapresses there produce only the rear castings).
Model Y from Austin will use front and rear castings (from gigapresses on site)

I wouldn't expect Gigacast 3s that soon.
Stamped 3 lines at Fremont and Shanghai are more complicated, but they work.
Austin has Cybertruck and Semi to ramp after Y, Shanghai has the new model, and Fremont has Roadster, so Berlin seems like the most likely lead site for a new cast 3 production line (which I'd expect to occur before they convert an existing line to maintain production).

 

[HG Wells]

Bullet and rust resistant truck that can probably do 10 sec quarter miles and hang with the best off road crawlers because of quad motors? Also it could power your home for like a week if it wanted to.

All it needs is some truck nuts and a “powered by the sun” bumper sticker to maximize the potential cross section of triggering!

No No No.
My bumper sticker reads.

KEEP BACK 500 Feet.
Nuclear Powered.

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla / Elon have not shown their true power recently. That does not mean it is not there. Some people here need to be reminded of this otherwise even the believers will be shocked when the tsunami of hurt is unleashed.

Whether it be 6 days away or 60, it is coming.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

A real recal this time, 21.5K MIC Model Y's:

Tesla China recalls 21.5k Model Y over front and rear steering knuckle issues

Tesla China has issued a recall for 21,559 domestically-made Model Y due to a fault in the vehicle’s front and rear steering knuckles. The recall covers locally-manufactured Model Ys produced between February 4 and October 30, 2021. “Tesla Co., Ltd. filed a recall plan with the State...

www.teslarati.com

Something is lost in translation I think in that report. What is a "rear steering knuckle"?
I can only assume they mean one of the front and rear links/control arms?
It would be useful to understand exactly which parts on the MY are affected by this.

What appears to have happened is that Simon Alvarez (Teslerati) has seen a tweet about a control arm coming loose and made it look like that's the recall issue.
There's nothing at the moment I can see which proves they are the same issue. We need the part numbers affected by the China recall to understand the problem.

 

[SO16]

Tesla / Elon have not shown their true power recently. That does not mean it is not there. Some people here need to be reminded of this otherwise even the believers will be shocked when the tsunami of hurt is unleashed.

Whether it be 6 days away or 60, it is coming.

I just hope Tesla Vision can reduce phantom braking. It seems this is becoming a bigger issue.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/r7jp4w

 

[scubastevo80]

I just hope Tesla Vision can reduce phantom braking. It seems this is becoming a bigger issue.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/r7jp4w

Where’s the backup for the statement on this being a hurdle for new buyers? The current backlog of reservation holders waiting on delivery says otherwise.

For those of us on FSD, the offering gets better with each release, which is the critically important factor here when considering spending the $10k on the package. My wife’s non FSD car does have more phantom braking events but that will like go way down once she is offered the beta.

 

[22522]

I just hope Tesla Vision can reduce phantom braking. It seems this is becoming a bigger issue.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/r7jp4w

I have a 98 score but have not received FSD Beta, so I don’t know what sensor is being used on my 2018 Model 3.

But, the only problem I have is spurious forward collision warnings. It could be bad labeling and the behavior models that come along when something is mislabeled. Seems to happen when a car in front of the car ahead is entering or exiting the lane. I don’t know if vision senses rotation of wheels on labeled objects - there could be a test based on wheel diameter and bulk velocity to sort out the 90 degree change in path direction.

Anyway. This complaint seems to match my experience and could be resolved with some physics modeling assisting the, sometimes still jumping, beautifully rendered objects.

(There is an error in order, to use human factors catagorization. What it does should be before what it is called. Feynman dad rant.)

 

[mongo]

Something is lost in translation I think in that report. What is a "rear steering knuckle"?
I can only assume they mean one of the front and rear links/control arms?
It would be useful to understand exactly which parts on the MY are affected by this.

What appears to have happened is that Simon Alvarez (Teslerati) has seen a tweet about a control arm coming loose and made it look like that's the recall issue.
There's nothing at the moment I can see which proves they are the same issue. We need the part numbers affected by the China recall to understand the problem.

The knuckle is the cast piece that holds the wheel hub/ bearing and connects to the suspension. There is a smaller US recall that calls out that the heat treatment of the part was done incorrectly at the supplier.

Tesla Model Y Recalled For Suspension Knuckle That May Break

Note, in the Teslarati linked Moneyball China tweet, the failure appears to be the lower control arm detaching from the other end (bolts came out), not a knuckle failure.

Edit: front

 

[pz1975]

Something is lost in translation I think in that report. What is a "rear steering knuckle"?
I can only assume they mean one of the front and rear links/control arms?
It would be useful to understand exactly which parts on the MY are affected by this.

What appears to have happened is that Simon Alvarez (Teslerati) has seen a tweet about a control arm coming loose and made it look like that's the recall issue.
There's nothing at the moment I can see which proves they are the same issue. We need the part numbers affected by the China recall to understand the problem.

I received this email from the NHTSA 3 days ago (I’m in a Canada):

Your vehicle MAY be involved in a safety recall and MAY create a safety risk for you or your passengers. If left unrepaired, a potential safety defect could lead to injury or even death. Safety defects must be repaired by a dealer at no cost to you.

Why am I getting this email?
You are receiving this message because you requested to be notified by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) if there is a safety recall that may affect your vehicle.

The following may apply to one or more of your vehicles if your vehicle is listed below. Click on the NHTSA Recall ID Number below to read more about the safety issue and the reason for the recall.

To find out if your specific passenger vehicle is included in the recall, use our VIN Look-up Tool.

NHTSA Recall ID Number :​	21V912
Manufacturer :​	Tesla, Inc.
Subject :​	Suspension Knuckles May Fracture
​	Make​ Model​ Model Years​ TESLA​ MODEL Y​ 2020-2022​

What is a recall?
When a manufacturer or the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) determines that a vehicle creates an unreasonable risk to safety or fails to meet minimum safety standards, the manufacturer is required to fix that vehicle at no cost to the owner. That can be done by repairing it, replacing it, offering a refund (for equipment) or, in rare cases, repurchasing the car.

What should I do if my vehicle is included in this recall?
If your vehicle is included in this recall, it is very important that you get it fixed as soon as possible given the potential danger to you and your passengers if it is not addressed. You should receive a separate letter in the mail from the vehicle manufacturer, notifying you of the recall and explaining when the remedy will be available, whom to contact to repair your vehicle, and to remind you that the repair will be done at no charge to you. If you believe your vehicle is included in the recall, but you do not receive a letter in the mail from the vehicle manufacturer, please call NHTSA's Vehicle Safety Hotline at 1-888-327-4236, or contact your vehicle manufacturer or dealership.

Thank you for your attention to this important safety matter and for your commitment to helping save lives on America's roadways.

Additional Resources
Understanding Vehicle Recalls
Recalls FAQ

Thank you,

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
United States Department of Transportations

 

[winfield100]

Elon acquired another batch of shares, ~45% so far, at a ~cost of ~$66.5 Million, with a possible "instantaneous" tax value of ~$11.5 Billion (so far) on which ~$6.1 Billion (so far) at an estimated tax rate of 53% would be owed, (so far), however Elon has realized (estimated) (so far) ~$10.9 Billion, so, (estimated) is around $5 Billion ahead (so far),
this leaves Elon, with reported as of 12/2/2021 169,857,523 total shares

SEC.gov | EDGAR Full Text Search

_All_ these figures are _rough_ but should be close
edit:
so far sold 6% of the 10% sold

price							shares
$31.17​	pre split					pre split	5,274,901​	90% of total shares
$6.234​	post split					post split	26,374,505​	23,737,050
								10,662,127	So Far
		shares
	11/8/2021	2,154,572	A	$6.24				$13,444,529.28​	acquired	9.1%​
	11/15/2021	2,107,672	A	$6.24				$13,151,873.28​	acquired	8.9%​
	11/16/2021	2,113,761	A	$6.24				$13,189,868.64​	acquired	8.9%​
	11/23/2021	2,152,681	A	$6.24				$13,432,729.44​	acquired	9.1%​
	12/2/2021	2,133,441	A	$6.24				$13,312,671.84​	acquired	9.0%​
										44.9%​
		10,662,127		total	acquired			$66,531,672.48	Cost
										Avg $
	11/8/2021	934,091​	D					$1,101,093,923.72​	dispersed	$1,178.79​
	11/9/2021	3,088,047​	D					$3,353,496,896.10​	dispersed	$1,085.96​
	11/10/2021	500,000​	D					$527,271,411.03​	dispersed	$1,054.54​
	11/11/2021	639,737​	D					$687,297,093.55​	dispersed	$1,074.34​
	11/12/2021	1,200,000​	D					$1,235,607,328.52​	dispersed	$1,029.67​
	11/15/2021	934,091​	D					$930,718,759.75​	dispersed	$996.39​
	11/16/2021	934,091​	D					$973,353,173.16​	dispersed	$1,042.03​
	11/23/2021	934,091​	D					$1,049,449,444.77​	dispersed	$1,123.50​
	12/2/2021​	934,091​	D					$1,013,650,831.84​	dispersed	$1,085.17​
total so far		10,098,239​	D	shares	Sold			$10,871,938,862.45​		$1,076.62​

 

[Boomer19]

Based on some responses in that thread, people are starting to cancel orders because of it. I don’t know how widespread. Could just be a few. I’m sure Tesla will still sell every car they make but I also don’t like seeing this trend either.

I have had phantom braking events in my 2017 with radar and those can be extremely scary (albeit was rare). And I was excited to think Tesla vision would reduce this and it just sounds based on the many responses on that Reddit thread, Tesla vision has made phantom braking worse.

Im sure Tesla will figure it out but the sooner, the better. I still don’t use auto-wipers and auto-brights because of how flakey they can be. I often end up flashing someone by accident or the wipers are on high in light snow.

i laughed at the original post bc i thought it was a joke. that thread is serious? maybe they need some perspective?

it’s a beta program
even then, you can still elect to drive your own car

this seems bizarre to me.

and what are those that canceled opting for instead?

it’s like finding out the new cancer drug may have adverse side effects, so instead opting to go back to smoking

 

[Freder Reeve]

someone drags that radar shill thread into here once a week.
(last week everyone was selling their new mYs because of the constant fear of shadowbraking)

 

[Dangerous Fish]

The knuckle is the cast piece that holds the wheel hub/ bearing and connects to the suspension. There is a smaller US recall that calls out that the heat treatment of the part was done incorrectly at the supplier.

Tesla Model Y Recalled For Suspension Knuckle That May Break

Note, in the Teslarati linked Moneyball China tweet, the failure appears to be the lower control arm detaching from the other end (bolts came out), not a knuckle failure.

Edit: front
View attachment 740096

This article describes a U.S recall for MY cars made in Fremont presumably?
The reason given is "During the supplier’s manufacture of the knuckles, the quench tank fluid level may not have been sufficient to fully quench the knuckles during the heat treatment process."
The recall in the Teslerati article is for MIC cars.
Can we assume then that these suspension knuckles destined for both U.S. & China Tesla assembly plants are made in the same factory in China perhaps?

 

[nativewolf]

Well you are correct, of course, about there being no love lost, but I wonder if the Japanese government in 2027 can really keep internationally popular Chinese EV brands out of the country if Japanese auto companies refuse to offer product and are seriously struggling to survive. I don’t know if JGov retains extreme influence over Toyota et al all like they have historically.

I think china's cars will be the least of concern; toyota is partnering with BYD- score one for buffet and munger. No one in Japan is crying out desperately for beamers or benz or RR and I don't expect they'll demand made in china cars. Will Japan go bankrupt? Good question, they tried to fix the country in the year 1985 ....the world has moved on.

 

[elasalle]

I think china's cars will be the least of concern; toyota is partnering with BYD- score one for buffet and munger. No one in Japan is crying out desperately for beamers or benz or RR and I don't expect they'll be demand made in china cars. Will Japan go bankrupt? Good question, they tried to fix the country in the year 1985 ....the world has moved on.

Tesla could come to the rescue and open a GF in Japan for mainly local consumption

Battery source already there (Panasonic) … over time with US battery ramp, it can source local GF
Diversification out of China (Didi delisting, BABA etc all under pressure…)
The 25K or future smaller models would do well
+ seems Japan in top 3 in car market behind China and US per google)

Cheers!!

 

[mongo]

This article describes a U.S recall for MY cars made in Fremont presumably?
The reason given is "During the supplier’s manufacture of the knuckles, the quench tank fluid level may not have been sufficient to fully quench the knuckles during the heat treatment process."
The recall in the Teslerati article is for MIC cars.
Can we assume then that these suspension knuckles destined for both U.S. & China Tesla assembly plants are made in the same factory in China perhaps?

Occam's razor would seem to agree with the common supplier senario.

 

[jbcarioca]

….

For example, starting with only $10,000, if you average 25% per year for two decades, and you fail to add any as you go along, you end up with $867,362! That means over the same period And that's with only 25% annually. I expect TSLA to appreciate much faster than that. Indeed, 83% in one year is awesome! Dare I say some of us may have become spoiled? Here's why:

If you could get 87% returns every year, that same $10,000 would turn into $2.734 billion dollars in only 20 years.

In investing, like many endeavors in life, the tortoise often beats the hare. Time is the magic ingredient. Yes, I know you were being sarcastic, I just wanted to put some numbers to it!

A tortoise is nit a good image for 25% compounded. Anyway no matter how much we would like it the world does not work that way. Yes, TSLA may outpace the markets. No, we will not have any consistent yearly compounding. Just look at the history since 2012:

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla

Fantasy is delightful. Reality is different. Enthusiastic investors, to be sure. It is wiser to be realistic.

The purposes of forecasting are several. One of them is to help understand the possibilities on the upside. Another is to understand the ‘levers of growth’ so we can recognize risks better.

One thing we old people have learned is that nothing ever turns out as we dream that it would.
As an aside, brilliant investors with long term success rarely beat typical market indices by more than 5% or so over a business cycle. Every recession has optimistic speculators go broke in large numbers. Please avoid imagining that TSLA will be the unique exception to all the rules.

Being prudent and thorough still can yield wonderful long term results. In my life prudence and thoroughness have been the only really difficult things to master. Knowing you’ve done both is usually possible only in retrospect.

My personal choice is to examine every negative regarding a prospective investment. If it still seems good after that I buy and wait. In the TSLA case I waited in agony through Model X, Model 3 and a few near-death situations. It has not been and will not be a smooth ride. The risks are very obvious and serious. There is completion now and much more is coming, even though we try to ridicule all of it. Tesla will do well, we all think it will. Just understand the risks.

I offer a short list of sure things for sustained long term wonder: Kodak, Xerox, Polaroid, Ford, Douglas. That is only the US. Many of them had massive advantages, many kept it up for decades. All ended their reign in slightly different ways.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Max pain for today is down to $1100(from $1120 yesterday morning), should be easy enough for MM's to nail.

 

[redan]

One of these things is not like the others. Just wait until Giga Berlin starts delivering cars!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466751696453910530