Yeah, timing the market is no easy task. I bought a bunch of shares in early March '20 at ~$600 pre split, only to watch the market keep sliding way down. It didn't feel great then, but looking back, it was still a great price.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
lafrisbee
Active Member
4 motor CT will be an overpriced premium entry product to start off, it will be a long time to work through orders if they start production anytime soon. There is no indication they are capable of volume yet.
I'm waiting for my email to decide what we will do.
I'm waiting for my email to decide what we will do.
thesmokingman
Active Member
The actual directional changes may be more efficient but the inherent problem with 4wheel steering on road cars is they can mess up because it cannot read the mind of the driver. Take the HICAS system in the Skyline, it can get it wrong and create too much oversteer and throw you way off your line. Thus is it more efficient? Doubtful and I'm not sure that's even the correct word.
Companies keep trying to use 4 wheel steering on road cars every couple generations like Honda and Porsche. Off road applications are clearly a superior application, shrugs.
Think FSD. Soon, humans are not involved. Old problem solved? Precision steering is near.
Should have known today would be bad....My wife got her paycheck.
That's a good thing....she can buy tonight
So, how much more range will you get from tacking?
I’ll play here for a round, entry .59 looking to scalp 1.00-1.20 unless it accelerates fast beyond that.. still see overall TSLA lower by EOD.
“One thing we old people have learned is that nothing ever turns out as we dream that it would.”
Really? So you’re saying that prior to 2020 you dreamed TSLA would be even higher than $5500 / share in 2021?
You’re really claiming TSLA’s meteoric rise did NOT turn out as well as you dreamed?
I would guess you are in a minority of one.
thesmokingman
Active Member
Yea ok but that's a whole different ball of wax.
Ironically a very popular mod on Skylines is the HICS delete mod, lol.
Krugerrand
Meow
Will that finish the handle? Asking for the teacup.
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The tortoise and the hare probably isn't the best analogy because I was not trying to imply the returns of a buy and hold investor would be consistent from year to year. Obviously, they will vary with the market moods. What I was attempting to highlight is that time in the market beats trying to time the market.
I was using an average 25% annual growth to put into perspective just how unusual the 83% appreciation we experienced in the last 12 months was. And it was in reply to a sarcastic lamentation that we had 'only' appreciated such a small amount. The point was, you don't even need 25% average annual growth to do fantastic over time. And, certainly, if you are diversified, 25% is a completely unrealistic value to even dream of.
Brilliant investors with long term success are typically diversified and their returns are weighed down by the inevitable laggards and losers. I agree, it is very difficult to beat the market averages by large percentages with even a somewhat diversified portfolio. People who are not diversified and/or are highly leveraged will have much more variation in their performance and many will even go broke or lose most of it. All that is true and I agree with you 100%. I will also point out that I have steadfastly maintained it's not wise to be 100% in one stock. But I was only addressing the returns of one stock, not an entire portfolio.
What is inexplicable, is how you take a single stock, TSLA, and then say it can't be the "unique exception to all the rules". Individual stocks, particularly ones that are exceptional, either to the upside or the downside, break those rules all the time. The rules apply to market indices and diversified portfolios, not individual stocks. You are treating me as if I'm stupid and I don't appreciate it. By telling me to "avoid imagining that TSLA will be the unique exception to all the rules", you are essentially saying that Tesla is not an exceptional company, one that breaks all the rules. I believe it is (and I know it has been).
It's not unprecedented for an individual stock to have outsized returns over the market indices. Even lowly old Mastercard has 33% annualized returns since their IPO in 2006. Even AMZN, who struggled for many years, has annualized returns of 31.1% since going public in 1997. Tesla is an exceptional company, and, yes, I do imagine they will be the exception to the rule! While past performance is not always a good indication of future performance, TSLA's returns since going public amount to an annualized return of 65.4% since going public is 2010. So, yes, some companies really are exceptional. If we didn't believe that we would all own index funds and be much less well-off because of it. You can call it dreaming, I call it first principles thinking.
note: I didn't calculate any of the annualized returns I've listed, they are all from this Kiplinger's article from November 19, 2021:
The 30 Best Stocks of the Past 30 Years
This elite group of global equities created the most wealth for shareholders over the past three decades.
www.kiplinger.com
If I didn't believe exceptional stocks existed, I would not have learned about Qualcomm, a company few had heard of until 1998 and especially 1999 when it became the best performing stock of the best performing year of the NASDAQ. As a young man I was looking for an investment that would give me outsized returns and in 1996-1997 I came across Qualcomm. By 1998 I had leveraged some rather meager savings into, what was to me, a sizeable sum by investing in companies like Starbucks, Micron, Microsoft and a few others. I was also learning everything I could about Qualcomm and by 1998 I started selling off some of my other stocks and building a position in Qualcomm. Because I believed they were worth so much more and would grow revenues even faster than my winners were doing.
Even though I had done my research, the shares went down. Each time they would go down, I bought more. In fact, we had just moved into a small cabin, having sold our previous house for $150K and the sale had just closed so I put ALL of that in QCOM as well. By the end of the year I had built a sizeable position and it finally started going up. I planned to hold them long-term, as long as I continued to like what I saw and I held tight all the way to the last day of 1999 when I told my wife I was going to sell them all because I thought they were so far over-valued and could not rise any higher. That they would crash with the New Year (New Millenium too) and take many years to come back to present levels. She talked me out of selling all of them because she said the taxes would be astronomical as it was millions of dollars and almost all of that was gains. The shares had appreciated 36 times in barely over a year. She suggested only selling 10%. So I did. But on the first trading day of the new year I sold even more and over the following weeks I sold more every time it would rally until by the last rally in March I had sold every last share. Then the price crashed and didn't return to those levels for over a decade. I walked away with millions (and a huge tax bill that I was very happy to pay). Yes, make no mistake, exceptional stocks do exist and I don't have unrealistic, dreamy ideas that a good past performer will always continue to rise at astronomical levels, even at that early point in my career as a long-term investor I was a first-principles thinker, I just didn't know what it was called. I called it "being logical and not assuming things I don't know".
Even though I had done my research, the shares went down. Each time they would go down, I bought more. In fact, we had just moved into a small cabin, having sold our previous house for $150K and the sale had just closed so I put ALL of that in QCOM as well. By the end of the year I had built a sizeable position and it finally started going up. I planned to hold them long-term, as long as I continued to like what I saw and I held tight all the way to the last day of 1999 when I told my wife I was going to sell them all because I thought they were so far over-valued and could not rise any higher. That they would crash with the New Year (New Millenium too) and take many years to come back to present levels. She talked me out of selling all of them because she said the taxes would be astronomical as it was millions of dollars and almost all of that was gains. The shares had appreciated 36 times in barely over a year. She suggested only selling 10%. So I did. But on the first trading day of the new year I sold even more and over the following weeks I sold more every time it would rally until by the last rally in March I had sold every last share. Then the price crashed and didn't return to those levels for over a decade. I walked away with millions (and a huge tax bill that I was very happy to pay). Yes, make no mistake, exceptional stocks do exist and I don't have unrealistic, dreamy ideas that a good past performer will always continue to rise at astronomical levels, even at that early point in my career as a long-term investor I was a first-principles thinker, I just didn't know what it was called. I called it "being logical and not assuming things I don't know".
I keep my eyes on the risks of a long position in TSLA literally, all the time. If I ever thought the risks exceeded the likely gains, I would sell it all quicker than you can say "silly dreamer". I don't appreciate the way you took my post that was intended to illustrate how annual gains in a single stock like TSLA of 'only' 25%, gains that many might think are relatively lack-luster, when compounded over many years can be transformative, you took that post and told me to "Please avoid imagining that TSLA will be the unique exception to all the rules." Huh? Individual stocks really do become exceptional over decades. And I am fully aware there are no guarantees that TSLA will continue to be exceptional. I think my past history proves that.
What is utterly baffling, is why you thought I meant the returns would be steady and consistent from year to year, why you think I'm not examining potential risks and, even more baffling, why you think it's impossible for TSLA to average over 25% annual appreciation looking forward 20 years?
Please notice that I'm not predicting this will happen with certainty, merely that exceptional companies do happen, I believe Tesla is one of them, perhaps shattering all previous records, and average returns of more than 25% is a likely possibility in my opinion. We know it's possible, not only because something is possible unless it's proven impossible, no, we also know it's possible because exceptional companies have already done exactly that! We can only project from what we know now. It's my opinion that 25% average returns are likely over the long-term. I'm constantly re-appraising. If you think Tesla is another Xerox or Kodak you should sell right now!
Signed,
A newbie, irrational dreamer who doesn't understand the stock market risks or investing basics and who think stocks can only go up due an extremely lucky 30 plus years of being an active investor. Shesh!
/s
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That depends......are you gonna throw that teacup at me if I'm wrongWill that finish the handle? Asking for the teacup.
I am putting money to work on my thesis here so if I'm wrong at least everyone knows I'm feeling the pain (though LEAPS aren't that scary considering what's in store for 2022)
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In your obsessive research, have you seen any competitors close to Tesla in self-driving? Tesla's advantages that I have seen include:
- lowest-cost sensors (cameras only, no lidar)
- lowest-power driving computer (lower than anything from Nvidia)
- tightest integration of hardware and software development (including in-house chip design)
- biggest training fleet (1.5M cars and growing exponentially)
- biggest training computer (Dojo, in development)
- fastest software iteration (via wireless updates)
- most scalable solution (no geofencing or pre-mapping)
In the transportation industry, the revolution will not be ICE vehicles replaced by EVs. It will be ICE vehicles replaced by self-driving EVs. Apparently this prediction is hard to believe or remember, since most folks don't.
But since I do, I see no "good competitors" to Tesla, now or three years out.
As usual if I disagree with you it is probably a misunderstanding. Please accept my apologies.
Krugerrand
Meow
I will not throw the teacup at you, that would be the destruction of a perfectly good teacup, which makes no sense.That depends......are you gonna throw that teacup at me if I'm wrong
I am putting money to work on my thesis here so if I'm wrong at least everyone knows I'm feeling the pain (though LEAPS aren't that scary considering what's in store for 2022)
But okay, if there’s money in your mouth than I fully support your theory and hope you kill it.
No, thus far I have not. However that is only ones of the metrics. Some are approaching the level of practical use as a driver assist package. Perhaps unfair, I find my Volvo driver assist roughly on par with my present Tesla version, not a current one. It does network as elegantly but it is practical as a driver assist package.
It seems probable that. wide variety of capabilities may be adequate to achieve marketplace success. None of those views alter my strong preference for Tesla and my TSLA position.
In the end we need not view market dominance as essential, nor even much less than that. Tesla could easily quadruple and still not achieve market dominance. Thus it is easily to be believed that TSLA growth will continue to be quite stellar. To do so Tesla need not accomplish all the capabilities that we expect.
Tesla certainly is at minimum five years ahead of the closest competitors.
That also suggests we must be acutely aware of all the risks. a 50% annual growth rate is, as we all know, unprecedented.
If the stock price stayed the same till Q1 results, TTM PE will be 150 ish and Forward PE will be at 50.
Warren buffet will be loading the truck.
Warren buffet will be loading the truck.
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