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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Krugerrand
Meow
Too late, he’ll be dead and buried by then and their shares will be worth $24,000 per after two more stock splits; they won’t care about the cost basis.
TheWalkingDad
Cybertruck 23' or bust.
Had to buy more shares this morning @ 980 / 960. Will look for more if it dips. Nice sale.
Inflation doesn't matter when the product you're making is in a fundamental long term cost reduction (batteries). Inflation is actually benefitable to Tesla for a number of reasons:
- Tesla can ride the cost curve down on batteries and enjoy larger economies of scale while keeping prices high
- Inflation in areas such as energy/fuel make the switch to EV's and solar/battery storage much more apparent to consumers.
Stock-wise......if Tesla prints a $2.50-3 EPS for Q4, it doesn't matter what inflation and interest rates do. That type of earnings growth isn't priced into the stock. Not one bit.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Did they detail how the nickel mining helped prostitution to flourish? I understand this is a big problem with EV's.
/s
Ah yes, the old practice of applying rationality to stock prices!
Honda Pilot, Ridgeline and Passport recalled over hoods that could fly open
Nearly 725,000 SUVs and pickup models are impacted by the recall campaign.
www.cnet.com
Checks to see the massive hit to Honda's SP.....yep up about 1%
Glad the market does not overreact to "small" issues.
You act Canadian, best guess. Glad to see you back.This morning I woke up to a full inbox. I therefore give up! I'm trying to reply individually to emails and PM's plus a few telephone calls. Probably I should have assumed that I'm not yet suffering from senility.Anyway, thanks for all the encouragement.
I'm having my new charger installed now and expanded solar panels etc so there is less time today exacerbated by Monday morning markets and other issues.
Over the last three days I have heard of several bits of 'rumors' all of which have already had coverage here and elsewhere:
-significant casting news;
- stainless steel forming developments;
-4680 progress;
-production/shipping/sales developments.
All four seem to be somewhat related. All of them seem unexpectedly positive. None are exactly proven yet, so they all remain speculative. Despite that this time I personally believe them and have acted on the expectations.
In casting there seems to have been much broader applications of smaller castings that share some of the metallurgy and other cost benefits as the GigaPress ones, specifically less processing, better ductility and greater corrosion resistance. Net that seems to indicate that smaller, less notable pieces are also becoming cheaper and better. My source claims no direct knowledge but he has been employed in the automotive casting industry for a long time.
The SS forming issues are ones that have been reported but not actually seen. This one seems to have been almost completely related to the SpaceX Starship developments. My source for this one is a former client who is in the steel manufacturing business who describe his firm as 'screwed'. He's always been optimistic in the decades I. have known him.
The 4680 stories are from TMC and others known to delve into these issues. I have no better sources.
Production/Shipping/Sales have multiple conflicting points.
-Current shipping rates and availability from Shanghai seem very tight. TMS sources don't see that as improving soon.
- Tesla has been using new EU ports within the last few months including Koper and several less traditional ones further North.
- Major improvements in supplier quality and ability have been evident in both Shanghai and Fremont, plus the Brandenburg/Austin developments by suppliers seem to be moving quickly, perhaps not quite at 'Tesla speed'
- each new datum on actual sales and deliveries seems to be unusually positive for this time of year, especially.
- 4680's are at production ready status now, but volumes will have too slow a ramp to solve supply weakness in 2022. Related, CATL, Panasonic, LG and others are ramping as quickly as they can and Tesla is getting preference. Why so certain? Because Tesla is using it's liquidity to help them ramp. There is good corroboration on that but everyone involved is anxious to avoid being too specific.
Those of us who have access to MarkLines etc are convinced that Elon's recent 'reduce the quarter end rush' missive is an expression of very high confidence.
Later this week we will have more November reports and more status updates.
Energy products will not get help until 2023 except for a few high priority situations. Expect several chemistry changes to help accelerate the storage side.
I have asked everyone I know what is happening with chip fabs and when ti will improve. I have only a single contact in that industry who assures me Tesla is far better off then are most solar panel makers and automakers but she still expects at least another year of problems. Tesla arguably will be a huge beneficiary from Samsung's new fab investments coming on line. The solar panel issues include several other supply chain problems, and some near-single source raw materials.
This is entirely qualitative statements because I don't want to impede sensitive sources, and because most of this is not yet proven anyway.
I find the chip shortage to be a curious enigma. There was a time this year when digikey and mouser etc decided to accept backorders but would not charge your card, only a hold and fully refundable at anytime. If any business had credit, the orders were placed in excess. (A bit of an ARK story there I think). I bet with such easy borrowing, everyone ran up their cards. So I tend to think we'll have excess in many areas latter half of next year (when some of my "long" embedded low-powered TI processor orders are expected to fulfill in Aug '22, pulled in from Sept '22 - to be more specific).
This hourly candle showing over 12m shares traded in the first hour looks suspect of Elon's selling. Let's see what is filed with the SEC this week. If it's planned selling and the number of shares is higher than 934,091, that'll be the signal that Elon is trying to wrap thing up just before a material event.
The question is how low that will take us? 50 DMA @ 985? Long term trendline @ 950? Breakout gap @ 910?
The question is how low that will take us? 50 DMA @ 985? Long term trendline @ 950? Breakout gap @ 910?
lafrisbee
Active Member
I reacted with a "Funny" because 77 damn people made sure you were appreciated...and growingThis morning I woke up to a full inbox. I therefore give up! I'm trying to reply individually to emails and PM's plus a few telephone calls. Probably I should have assumed that I'm not yet suffering from senility.
I'm having my new charger installed now and expanded solar panels etc so there is less time today exacerbated by Monday morning markets and other issues.
Over the last three days I have heard of several bits of 'rumors' all of which have already had coverage here and elsewhere:
-significant casting news;
- stainless steel forming developments;
-4680 progress;
-production/shipping/sales developments.
All four seem to be somewhat related. All of them seem unexpectedly positive. None are exactly proven yet, so they all remain speculative. Despite that this time I personally believe them and have acted on the expectations.
In casting there seems to have been much broader applications of smaller castings that share some of the metallurgy and other cost benefits as the GigaPress ones, specifically less processing, better ductility and greater corrosion resistance. Net that seems to indicate that smaller, less notable pieces are also becoming cheaper and better. My source claims no direct knowledge but he has been employed in the automotive casting industry for a long time.
The SS forming issues are ones that have been reported but not actually seen. This one seems to have been almost completely related to the SpaceX Starship developments. My source for this one is a former client who is in the steel manufacturing business who describe his firm as 'screwed'. He's always been optimistic in the decades I. have known him.
The 4680 stories are from TMC and others known to delve into these issues. I have no better sources.
Production/Shipping/Sales have multiple conflicting points.
-Current shipping rates and availability from Shanghai seem very tight. TMS sources don't see that as improving soon.
- Tesla has been using new EU ports within the last few months including Koper and several less traditional ones further North.
- Major improvements in supplier quality and ability have been evident in both Shanghai and Fremont, plus the Brandenburg/Austin developments by suppliers seem to be moving quickly, perhaps not quite at 'Tesla speed'
- each new datum on actual sales and deliveries seems to be unusually positive for this time of year, especially.
- 4680's are at production ready status now, but volumes will have too slow a ramp to solve supply weakness in 2022. Related, CATL, Panasonic, LG and others are ramping as quickly as they can and Tesla is getting preference. Why so certain? Because Tesla is using it's liquidity to help them ramp. There is good corroboration on that but everyone involved is anxious to avoid being too specific.
Those of us who have access to MarkLines etc are convinced that Elon's recent 'reduce the quarter end rush' missive is an expression of very high confidence.
Later this week we will have more November reports and more status updates.
Energy products will not get help until 2023 except for a few high priority situations. Expect several chemistry changes to help accelerate the storage side.
I have asked everyone I know what is happening with chip fabs and when ti will improve. I have only a single contact in that industry who assures me Tesla is far better off then are most solar panel makers and automakers but she still expects at least another year of problems. Tesla arguably will be a huge beneficiary from Samsung's new fab investments coming on line. The solar panel issues include several other supply chain problems, and some near-single source raw materials.
This is entirely qualitative statements because I don't want to impede sensitive sources, and because most of this is not yet proven anyway.
Haha very true. I do though think Tesla's earnings are about to "force" the issue on Wall St.
Wall St tried desperately all throughout 2021 to ignore Tesla's earnings and they could do that because the PE was so high and had a lot of room to compress. Also Tesla's earnings, while showing incredible growth especially compared to the revenue growth associated with the earnings growth, were still not big enough to force the issue.
Q4 earnings though........now we're going to see some reckoning and it's going to last for at least 8 straight quarters when Tesla earnings just explode in 2022 and 2023.
On Friday I pointed out similar action......it wasn't Elon selling. This is likely shorting/naked shorting.
(Though technically we could still get some forms out this afternoon that would cover Friday and today's trading)
Added 150 and a Jan 2023 $1k leap today. Let's see!
It could be, yes. Just the size of the candle is huge, only higher hourly volume occurred on 11/8 & notorious 11/9. If this is naked shorting, it's indeed a very high conviction short.
I was feeling so smart buying last week. Picked up 10 more at $975.
I feel even smarter today.
I feel even smarter today.
My mother would thank you. OTOH I'm happy to be in Rio de Janeiro rather than Vancouver Island, in this season, anyway.
For a while those lower highs formed the upper resistance line of a bull flag which was broken last week. Very normal and I don't pay much attention to it. Great fundamentals took us up, not the chart, and they will do so again very soon.
This is an interesting one, leading to speculation on the SpaceX side and the Tesla side having to do with forming stainless steel alloys at cryogenic temperatures. But this is a known attribute that anybody could utilize with a little bit of ingenuity and some extra (perhaps expensive) equipment.
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