Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[H Mak]

That WSJ interview is really worth watching. My impression was of an inferior being asking questions of the superior being. And the audience appeared to be in thrall. How couldn't you be.

 

[canoemore]

Would be nice to have the same multiple on the upswing as we get on the downswing. We’d be up like 15%

 

[Chenkers]

And yes, all growth stocks are jumping up today, not just Tesla. I doubt the interview had much to do with TSLA stock price today.

Yes but Tesla is currently trading at a relatively low Beta (average 2.04 but often much higher). It should be up around 6% or more. The relatively low volume combined with someone? possibly selling makes it easy for the MM's to cap the price under $1050. Which surprise surprise happens to be Max Pain and the first major call wall. Hopefully afternoon trading or the China numbers can break through resistance and we see where TSLA really belongs.

 

[generalenthu]

That reminded me that I saw Teslas being trucked up to SF piers yesterday. Early shipping for Q1 deliveries?

Deliveries where? I thought all of Fremont production was staying here in the US or North America, and doesnt make sense shipping them over the panama canal. Unless we're talking S / X here. And I am not sure they're shipping those over to Europe / China yet.

 

[SOULPEDL]

every game/app that does not default to fullscreen has this.
Also Careoke & that turn based RTS can be played by the passenger ..

BUT Tesla does not control this (via e.g. pressure-sensors). You can try this at a red light or so (and close it directly! Don't game & drive, stupid!).

I'm reminded of my FSD drives that they absolutely know when I'm fiddling with a phone or not watching the road. Tesla is way ahead of the game in terms of providing safety (and perception of safety against FSD FUD). Just as the driver focus and verification was in the news and the spotlight on Cruise, Tesla introduced the in-cabin camera monitor and I always knew they'd be ready as needed. If anyone tries to claim unsafe bc of the games, I'm still not worried, and for the same reasons.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I see Wall St is not ready/positioned for a rebound in TSLA. Been hit with multiple selling waves at key times to limit upside with the Nasdaq moves higher. Typical action that we've seen many times before when Tesla is being shorted in a short term window.

Given the selling action last week and especially yesterday, it so damn clear what the intent was. Hedgies are probably disappointed they couldn't break the 50-day (stock has to close below the 50-day for it be considered broken) and they're capping it today in hopes the overall market pulls back. Since the 50-day moving average is an uptrend, they simply need to cap the stock for the next week and wait for a down macro day and try to break it then.

I sincerely hope they get blown up tomorrow by CPCA numbers. I care more about Wall St eating crow than I do making money at this point which thankfully, Tesla has given me that financial security to think that way.

 

[StealthP3D]

In the short term yes. I 1st started following Tesla because of the mission. The mission was about combatting climate change. The purchase price of EVs has to get to where the purchase price of ICE vehicles are to deliver the death blow. The incentives help a great deal with that. In 2022? No. In 2023? Likely not, but once Austin and Berlin are ramped this will allow Tesla to ease prices and couple with the EV rebate put Tesla's in the price point for the mass market. So this bill is very important to get passed now. It wont be for a few years where it matters, but it will and people saying pass it in a few years are clueless to the political situation in the US. We have a party that if anything will try to incent the use of fossil fuels and that party will no way no how pass a bill to incent green energy and electric vehicles. This is the chance to pass green energy incentives and likely we wont have that opportunity again before it is to late.

It's simply not true that high EV prices are slowing the mission. The proof is that at current prices all manufacturers are selling all they can make. The mission would not be hastened by lower prices because there are no more EV's to sell. Looking forward, Tesla already has enviable profit margins on their EV's and those margins are growing with the natural cost curve declines for EV technology coupled with Tesla's manufacturing innovations. That means Tesla already has plenty of room to cut prices should it be necessary to goose sales in the future, and margin is growing, not shrinking.

You live in the US but perhaps you are not aware that the average price paid for a new car in the US has recently passed $45K for the first time ever. With EV's only making up less than 3% of all sales, we can't blame much of that on high EV prices. So, that $45K average price primarily represents vehicles that require gas, oil changes, etc. for the rest of their life and have a higher after-purchase cost to own.

EV's are being adopted in record numbers for many reasons but one of them is the lower total cost of ownership when compared to equivalent ICE cars (as if it were possible for there to be any direct equivalents). The EV ownership experience is superior, we just need more of them. As usual, it really is all about the batteries. If the government wants to accelerate the adoption of EV over ICE all they need to do is subsidize the manufacture of batteries. I think subsidies often have unintended negative consequences so I'm not recommending this, but a direct subsidy to battery production equipment/factories would be better than a vehicle purchase subsidy. This would increase battery production and therefore EV production and would actually speed the mission in a much less wasteful manner.

 

[SOULPEDL]

In other news, my wife tells me that Intel is making Mobile Eye public - as in IPO. Intel, really? Is an IPO the only way to show strength in Self-driving or EVs? Or do they need all cash for Intel's CapX needs for this new FAB push and Mobile eye is a cost burden with no clear horizon?

 

[DragonWatch]

Mumble, mumble, market makers...

Cheers!

EDIT: Unless you were referring to the 80th Anniversary of the raid on Pearl Harbor (today at 7:55 am HST, 12:55 EST). It is appropriate to observe a minute of silence in memory of casualties on both sides.

"December 7th, 1941: A Date Which Will Live in Infamy"​

-- FDR (addressing the Congress of the United States)​

Edit: Actually our daughter born on 7Dec78 ~ since I allowed a fellow officer drive me to the hospital, he got lost and I almost missed the birth. In all honesty, I assumed like her brother, she would be waiting to exit; while I finished up an inspection. Then my friend tried to fly across a ravine located between us and the hospital. Reality sunk in for him and we took the long way around in his “Z.” FYI ~ she is gods gift to public elementary education.

Market: Your almost daily mix in the fray helps retool for the day traders ~ if they are listening.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Great to see that the stock is up despite Elon clearly stating he isn't aware of anything happening on 12/9 and he was just going along with a meme. That substantially reduces the chances of any air - if there was any left - running out of the stock when on Thursday there really isn't any news to report.

 

[Todd Burch]

LOL I'm listening to Spotify at work and no kidding, I hear the following: "Polestar is the new all-electric vehicle driving change in the auto industry"...

Seems like GM is not the only OEM smokin' crack.

 

[ZsoZso]

That's US manufacturers only I suspect, no?

He was talking about US market, not US manufacturing. So all EVs sold in the US regardless of who/where manufactured.

 

[generalenthu]

In other news, my wife tells me that Intel is making Mobile Eye public - as in IPO. Intel, really? Is an IPO the only way to show strength in Self-driving or EVs? Or do they need all cash for Intel's CapX needs for this new FAB push and Mobile eye is a cost burden with no clear horizon?

Ha.. looks like they're doing the same thing Google is rumored to be doing - spin off your dead end self driving unit and hopefully recover a bit of your investment while the market is still blind to the fact that this is structurally going to be another monopoly market like Search or Social, where one player dominates. Only on a much bigger scale.

 

[tivoboy]

Yes but Tesla is currently trading at a relatively low Beta (average 2.04 but often much higher). It should be up around 6% or more. The relatively low volume combined with someone? possibly selling makes it easy for the MM's to cap the price under $1050. Which surprise surprise happens to be Max Pain and the first major call wall. Hopefully afternoon trading or the China numbers can break through resistance and we see where TSLA really belongs.

Okay, wait.. do you consider a beta of 2.x to be LOW? I find that very very high relative to the company size, history, growth expectations. Or are you referring to % change and not truly “beta” ? Higher than that would be surprising short of a few random days. I’ve never seen anything reasonable at 4+

 

[lafrisbee]

CA, I would venture a lot of it is cultural. Why do so many cultural fads start in CA? Also, CA residents are richer than most other states. Also it has a car culture. Also it is warm, making EVs more practical. CA is also where the Fremont factory and Palo Alto HQ are located, so word of mouth initially. So, lots of reasons.

Incentives do matter, Elon was just opining that he’d rather not have them even though they do matter.

As far as fiduciary duty is concerned, the subsidies probably help Teslas competition more than they help Tesla. So on balance better to not have them. Did you miss the part where they help GM and Ford more than Tesla due to union rules?

And yes, all growth stocks are jumping up today, not just Tesla. I doubt the interview had much to do with TSLA stock price today.

I'll give you that..but the interview could have had a lot to do with today's stock price if it had been a battery fire.

 

[generalenthu]

LOL I'm listening to Spotify at work and no kidding, I hear the following: "Polestar is the new all-electric vehicle driving change in the auto industry"...

Seems like GM is not the only OEM smokin' crack.

I see your join date, and am wondering why you have not upgraded to Spotify premium

 

[thx1139]

It's simply not true that high EV prices are slowing the mission. The proof is that at current prices all manufacturers are selling all they can make. The mission would not be hastened by lower prices because there are no more EV's to sell. Looking forward, Tesla already has enviable profit margins on their EV's and those margins are growing with the natural cost curve declines for EV technology coupled with Tesla's manufacturing innovations. That means Tesla already has plenty of room to cut prices should it be necessary to goose sales in the future, and margin is growing, not shrinking.

You live in the US but perhaps you are not aware that the average price paid for a new car in the US has recently passed $45K for the first time ever. With EV's only making up less than 3% of all sales, we can't blame much of that on high EV prices. So, that $45K average price primarily represents vehicles that require gas, oil changes, etc. for the rest of their life and have a higher after-purchase cost to own.

EV's are being adopted in record numbers for many reasons but one of them is the lower total cost of ownership when compared to equivalent ICE cars (as if it were possible for there to be any direct equivalents). The EV ownership experience is superior, we just need more of them. As usual, it really is all about the batteries. If the government wants to accelerate the adoption of EV over ICE all they need to do is subsidize the manufacture of batteries. I think subsidies often have unintended negative consequences so I'm not recommending this, but a direct subsidy to battery production equipment/factories would be better than a vehicle purchase subsidy. This would increase battery production and therefore EV production and would actually speed the mission in a much less wasteful manner.

OK I will say it again. I am not talking about short term. 100% correct that high EV prices are not slowing the mission NOW. If a lower price of entry isnt needed then Tesla should scrap the plans for the $25K EV. You dont need to tell me about the EV experience. I have/had 4 with a 5th being delivered soon. That isnt the case for most people in the US. The massive demand for Tesla's in the US right now even at $60K is nothing compared to what the demand will need to be to combat climate change rapidly. I mean what does that represent in the US total new car market?

Simply put high EV prices are not slowing the mission, but high prices will slow the mission in the future.

 

[Todd Burch]

I see your join date, and am wondering why you have not upgraded to Spotify premium

How do you think I saved up all that money to buy all those shares so many years ago?

PS: Thought you were going to ask why I'm still working .

I'm not going to act like I have what I have in my TSLA portfolio until I sell.
And I'm not going to sell until TSLA hits my personal goal. And it's not close to it yet.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Ha.. looks like they're doing the same thing Google is rumored to be doing - spin off your dead end self driving unit and hopefully recover a bit of your investment while the market is still blind to the fact that this is structurally going to be another monopoly market like Search or Social, where one player dominates. Only on a much bigger scale.

And Google absolutely understands the value of large data and the commanding dominance coming from Tesla FSD.

 

[elasalle]

This is all I could find. Thought China numbers may be out. What a stock!

UBS says 'no rival to get even close to Tesla in 2022,' hikes price target

UBS raised its price target on Tesla to $1,000 from $725.

www.cnbc.com

The Game.

Those who gobbled up shares yesterday, are gonna give good price targets today

(not complaining one bit )
(+ it's UBS from Sandy Munroe report days ...)