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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I also expect the Model 3 motor will be used in S and X. But in the rear only. The front will still be an induction motor because of the need to be able to run the motor in "neutral mode" which the Model 3 (Switched Reluctance motor) cannot do efficiently. This is the same reason the Model 3 AWD is configured this way.

And why wouldn't they use the front Model 3 motor which is an induction motor? (I assume it is more efficient than the current one in the S&X.)
 
* Discussion of Tesla's service network's quality and whether it's hurting the brand is on-topic
* SpaceX is rarely on-topic, although major SpaceX events might have knock-on effects via Musk.
* Where Elon is spending time is relevant, although not major news unless we can tell what he's doing there
* Brexit is one of the biggest macro movers there is. Although "Brexit good v. Brexit bad" debates are tiring.

I believe this thread is structured correctly; it just lacks the mod power to do its primary stated rule, which is: whenever any specific topic starts accumulating too many posts - and the more tangential it is to the stock, the more stringent the limit - it gets moved into a side thread.

As a side note, I think you'll find that almost everyone who has taken the time to write a post complaining about other people writing "off-topic" things has themselves written posts that others consider to be "off-topic".

ED: Um... I just notice that you yourself were posting about where Elon was. But now you're complaining about people posting about where Elon is?
 
Maybe there could be a way to vote for posts that are of significant direct impact to the stock, quantitative posts or significant company or market related information that is specific to the company that if they get 10 or more votes it populates a different thread with those posts?

Is such a mechanism possible?

I doubt it, but that'd be really neat if possible.

TSLA nearly caught up to NASDAQ. :)
 
I'll start with EPS. I have to run but I'll come back later and give the revenue estimates for each firm.

EPS Estimates:
BofAML 2.49
Canaccord 4.34
Citi 1.59
Deutsche 2.05
Elazar Advisors 2.60
Goldman Sachs 1.14
JPM 0.77
Macquiarie 2.09
Morgan Stanley 2.13
Needham 3.22
Oppenheimer 2.85
Piper 2.61
RBC 2.45
Roth 1.79
UBS 1.60
Undisclosed 2.18
Undisclosed 2.29
Undisclosed 2.08
Undisclosed 2.42
Undisclosed 3.02
Wedbush 1.98
Wolfe Research 2.57

Excluded from consensus
Evercore 0.98
JMP 1.60

MS is 3.81 (2019) and 8.97 (2020).
 
Nothing is ever "gone" - even $0. It's all about odds. And you need to set a timeframe when talking about the odds of a certain price occurring.

I think given the context of @tivoboy's past comments on this issue, the timeframe is clear: between now and mid-January (so, essentially next week).

Thank you for the reminder that a stock can always go to $0 -- I had forgotten.
 
Is the $27x bogey a goner at this point?
For the near term I believe so. Another oppty may occur after q4 earnings release or based on more global domestic macro. I also don’t see 420$ plus so ppl who’ve picked up feb/mar 350/370/390 calls during opportunistic market and stock down windows I think are going to be nicely rewarded. Don’t be a pig
 
I think given the context of @tivoboy's past comments on this issue, the timeframe is clear

It is? I'm not used to having to click through people's comment histories to get context :)

between now and mid-January (so, essentially next week)

That would be one heck of a negative confluence of events to get us down there. That's pre-Q3 ER ("Tesla can't turn a profit!"), "recovering from Joe Rogan" price action levels. Albeit macros are of course worse now.
 
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As a side note, I think you'll find that almost everyone who has taken the time to write a post complaining about other people writing "off-topic" things has themselves written posts that others consider to be "off-topic".

Exactly: this is similar to the never ending "software features versus bug fixes" discussions: one person's super essential, mission critical feature is useless churn and an unnecessary risk to others.

I think this thread got better over the past couple of months, now that intentional disruption by feathery endothermic vertebrates is being decisively fought. ;)
 
It is? I'm not used to having to click through people's comment histories to get context :)

That would be one heck of a negative confluence of events to get us down there. That's pre-Q3 ER, "recovering from Joe Rogan" price action levels. Albeit macros are of course worse now.

Lol! Well I wasn't asking you, so I didn't think context was necessary. He knew what I was asking.

As to your second point, I had my own opinions, which coincide with your own (ie., unlikely), but I was curious on his thoughts.

At any rate, back to our regularly scheduled programming.
 
Fantastic, thank you very much!

Here's a tabulated version, sorted by revenue value (from bearish to bullish), and left off the irrelevant .1 million digits:

Evercore
UBS
JMP
Goldman Sachs
Undisclosed
Wolfe Research
BofAML
Deutsche
Roth
JPMorgan
Undisclosed
Undisclosed
Thomson First Call Consensus
Elazar Advisors
Macquiarie
RBC
Wedbush
Undisclosed
Piper
Oppenheimer
Needham
Canaccord
[TD2] $6,805m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,820m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,848m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,851m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,895m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,899m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,926m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,976m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,985m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,020m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,032m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,067m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,082m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,084m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,089m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,139m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,188m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,192m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,226m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,440m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,523m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,715m [/TD2]


Yes, and it appears to be pretty clear to me that the shorts are trying to manipulate Thomson First Call consensus as well for Q4'18 TSLA results:
  • There's evidence of significant gaming of the First Call consensus by bearish analysts, the top 2 revenue estimates are actually ALL from bearish analysts:
    • "Canaccord" initiated TSLA coverage half a year ago with a bearish outlook. They gave a number of mostly bearish interviews and stopped talking about Tesla after the positive Q3 results altogether ...
    • "Oppenheimer" is the first genuine bullish analyst.
  • Without the fake revenue entries the true median consensus would be below $7b - at around $6.8b-$6.9b...
Everyone who owns $TSLA stock, options or bonds and agrees that this is market manipulation which is harming investors, please file a SEC Investor Complaint:


A sample complaint could be something like:

Suspected illegal market manipulation: two of the most bearish $TSLA analysts (Canaccord and Needham) are apparently gaming the 'Thomson First Call consensus' analyst estimates to manufacture an artificial 'miss' on $TSLA by entering artificially high Q4'2018 revenue estimates 6-8% higher than the consensus, which estimates are not consistent with their publicly bearish views of the company. Their apparent intent is to profit from any adverse price reaction, should Tesla "miss" the artificially heightened revenue consensus.

Similar suspected illegal price and market manipulation distortion of the "FactSet" consensus was performed with the January 2 Tesla (TSLA) "Delivery Report", which created a price drop from a $332 closing price on December 31 to below $300 on January 2 - a more than 10% intraday drop. Bearish analysts entered unrealistically high production estimates for Tesla, which created an artificial "consensus miss" that adversely affected investor sentiment and caused a big drop in the $TSLA price - from which short sellers profited.

As a $TSLA investor I was significantly harmed by their action.

It's a classic 'short and distort' tactic that appears to be illegal according to the Securities Act of 1933, also known as the "Truth In Securities Act".

I believe the SEC is obligated to at minimum read every complaint made by an investor. Even if they don't act on it, it creates a track record that later SEC administrations can use to form new policy, restrictions on short sellers, more effective regulation of Wall Street analysts, etc.

So it's helpful to file complaints even if nothing happens straight away - the squeaky wheel gets the grease, eventually.

Non-U.S. investors can file complaints as well.

(Paging @ZachShahan and @Papafox.)

Isn’t the SEC mostly shut down right now?
 
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This thread contains a lot of valuable information, but it tends to gets lost in the noise of jokes, personal jabs and off-topic posts (by which I mean non-market related service complaints, car tinkering photos, and non-Tesla related posts about SpaceX, flight paths of Elons jet, etc.). If more people would show some restraint and focus on posting news and opinions about Tesla and less on trying to be the funniest poster, there is no need for separate threads.

I think the main problem is: this isn’t how human conversation works. People don’t just stick rigidly to one topic regardless of what comes up. Something is brought up related to the topic, but generally contains other pieces of information tangentially related to it, then someone might respond to that tangential information and soon it has little to do with the original topic. I think the best we can do with this thread is just *try* to catch ourselves when we get off topic.

For mods: not sure if possible with the tools you have, but maybe a feature to be able to spin a comment of ours into its own thread? Replicating your ability to do so, but only with our own posts? Idk how you’d want to handle replies with that, maybe only move direct replies to the alternate thread...
 
Yes. But, in theory everything submitted now will get processed after they reopen.

Man, I wish I could rate the “funny” rating someone gave you as funny...

EDIT: Anyway, a better solution, perhaps, would be to bring this to the attention of @ZachShahan or the like. Try to milk these apparently bullish predictions before the ER for everything they’re worth. Sure, it might go down on a slight “miss”, but at least you’re setting the floor for that much higher with news that such bearish analysts are predicting a breakout quarter.