Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Before I post anything in this thread, I stop and think for a few moments about whether it adds any value to the ongoing discussion, informs or at least raises a few laughs.

Then I post it anyway.

 

[Ellec]

Fantastic, thank you very much!

Here's a tabulated version, sorted by revenue value (from bearish to bullish), and left off the irrelevant .1 million digits:

Evercore

UBS

JMP

Goldman Sachs

Undisclosed

Wolfe Research

BofAML

Deutsche

Roth

JPMorgan

Undisclosed

Undisclosed

Thomson First Call Consensus

Elazar Advisors

Macquiarie

RBC

Wedbush

Undisclosed

Piper

Oppenheimer

Needham

Canaccord

[TD2] $6,805m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,820m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,848m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,851m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,895m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,899m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,926m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,976m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,985m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,020m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,032m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,067m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,082m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,084m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,089m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,139m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,188m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,192m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,226m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,440m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,523m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,715m [/TD2]

Yes, and it appears to be pretty clear to me that the shorts are trying to manipulate Thomson First Call consensus as well for Q4'18 TSLA results:

• There's evidence of significant gaming of the First Call consensus by bearish analysts, the top 2 revenue estimates are actually ALL from bearish analysts:
  • "Canaccord" initiated TSLA coverage half a year ago with a bearish outlook. They gave a number of mostly bearish interviews and stopped talking about Tesla after the positive Q3 results altogether ...
  • "Needham" of "Tesla's True Value is 'Closer to $200'" infame has the second highest revenue estimate ... Total silence from Needham after the positive Q3 earnings report.
  • "Oppenheimer" is the first genuine bullish analyst.
• Without the fake revenue entries the true median consensus would be below $7b - at around $6.8b-$6.9b...

Everyone who owns $TSLA stock, options or bonds and agrees that this is market manipulation which is harming investors, please file a SEC Investor Complaint:

SEC Investor Complaint Form​

A sample complaint could be something like:

Suspected illegal market manipulation: two of the most bearish $TSLA analysts (Canaccord and Needham) are apparently gaming the 'Thomson First Call consensus' analyst estimates to manufacture an artificial 'miss' on $TSLA by entering artificially high Q4'2018 revenue estimates 6-8% higher than the consensus, which estimates are not consistent with their publicly bearish views of the company. Their apparent intent is to profit from any adverse price reaction, should Tesla "miss" the artificially heightened revenue consensus.

Similar suspected illegal price and market manipulation distortion of the "FactSet" consensus was performed with the January 2 Tesla (TSLA) "Delivery Report", which created a price drop from a $332 closing price on December 31 to below $300 on January 2 - a more than 10% intraday drop. Bearish analysts entered unrealistically high production estimates for Tesla, which created an artificial "consensus miss" that adversely affected investor sentiment and caused a big drop in the $TSLA price - from which short sellers profited.

As a $TSLA investor I was significantly harmed by their action.

It's a classic 'short and distort' tactic that appears to be illegal according to the Securities Act of 1933, also known as the "Truth In Securities Act".
​

I believe the SEC is obligated to at minimum read every complaint made by an investor. Even if they don't act on it, it creates a track record that later SEC administrations can use to form new policy, restrictions on short sellers, more effective regulation of Wall Street analysts, etc.

So it's helpful to file complaints even if nothing happens straight away - the squeaky wheel gets the grease, eventually.

Non-U.S. investors can file complaints as well.

(Paging @ZachShahan and @Papafox.)

Done, hope these guys get locked up.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Thanks FC, I registered a complaint.

I also registered a complaint. Thank you.

 

[anthonyj]

Very funny how Wedbush keeps reiterating it’s bullishness and then the stock falls afterwards.

 

[Unpilot]

Complaint register at SEC as well.

 

[ggr]

Fantastic, thank you very much!

Here's a tabulated version, sorted by revenue value (from bearish to bullish), and left off the irrelevant .1 million digits:

Evercore

UBS

JMP

Goldman Sachs

Undisclosed

Wolfe Research

BofAML

Deutsche

Roth

JPMorgan

Undisclosed

Undisclosed

Thomson First Call Consensus

Elazar Advisors

Macquiarie

RBC

Wedbush

Undisclosed

Piper

Oppenheimer

Needham

Canaccord

[TD2] $6,805m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,820m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,848m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,851m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,895m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,899m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,926m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,976m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,985m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,020m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,032m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,067m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,082m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,084m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,089m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,139m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,188m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,192m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,226m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,440m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,523m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,715m [/TD2]

Yes, and it appears to be pretty clear to me that the shorts are trying to manipulate Thomson First Call consensus as well for Q4'18 TSLA results:

• There's evidence of significant gaming of the First Call consensus by bearish analysts, the top 2 revenue estimates are actually ALL from bearish analysts:
  • "Canaccord" initiated TSLA coverage half a year ago with a bearish outlook. They gave a number of mostly bearish interviews and stopped talking about Tesla after the positive Q3 results altogether ...
  • "Needham" of "Tesla's True Value is 'Closer to $200'" infame has the second highest revenue estimate ... Total silence from Needham after the positive Q3 earnings report.
  • "Oppenheimer" is the first genuine bullish analyst.
• Without the fake revenue entries the true median consensus would be below $7b - at around $6.8b-$6.9b...

Everyone who owns $TSLA stock, options or bonds and agrees that this is market manipulation which is harming investors, please file a SEC Investor Complaint:

SEC Investor Complaint Form​

A sample complaint could be something like:

Suspected illegal market manipulation: two of the most bearish $TSLA analysts (Canaccord and Needham) are apparently gaming the 'Thomson First Call consensus' analyst estimates to manufacture an artificial 'miss' on $TSLA by entering artificially high Q4'2018 revenue estimates 6-8% higher than the consensus, which estimates are not consistent with their publicly bearish views of the company. Their apparent intent is to profit from any adverse price reaction, should Tesla "miss" the artificially heightened revenue consensus.

Similar suspected illegal price and market manipulation distortion of the "FactSet" consensus was performed with the January 2 Tesla (TSLA) "Delivery Report", which created a price drop from a $332 closing price on December 31 to below $300 on January 2 - a more than 10% intraday drop. Bearish analysts entered unrealistically high production estimates for Tesla, which created an artificial "consensus miss" that adversely affected investor sentiment and caused a big drop in the $TSLA price - from which short sellers profited.

As a $TSLA investor I was significantly harmed by their action.

It's a classic 'short and distort' tactic that appears to be illegal according to the Securities Act of 1933, also known as the "Truth In Securities Act".
​

I believe the SEC is obligated to at minimum read every complaint made by an investor. Even if they don't act on it, it creates a track record that later SEC administrations can use to form new policy, restrictions on short sellers, more effective regulation of Wall Street analysts, etc.

So it's helpful to file complaints even if nothing happens straight away - the squeaky wheel gets the grease, eventually.

Non-U.S. investors can file complaints as well.

(Paging @ZachShahan and @Papafox.)

Done. The form is easy, except for figuring out you have to select "Equity Securities (General)" from the dropdown.

 

[AudubonB]

I'm noting that perma-bear UBS is, at least, internally consistent. Their revenue numbers are right at the bottom of the list.

So we have wrong, dead-wrong, and manipulatively wrong. Plus some others!

I put the numbers in, however, and by my reckoning it is not quite so dire a skew as ggr Fact Checking suggests. Without the two manipulators, the consensus becomes $7,025mm. Happy to have someone else check my calculator-pushing. That is, Fact Check it.

 

[winfield100]

Thanks FC, I registered a complaint.

Also. Doubtful if anything will happen though

 

[HG Wells]

Morning dip seems to be almost over.
Few more laps then on to the sauna.
I think i'll turn the temperature up.

 

[winfield100]

T-10 min

 

[AudubonB]

Topic-ish:

With today's opening of the Dover Delaware site, the number of open Superchargers in the US has hit the magic(?) 600. So here's to North Dakota and Alaska, may they soon join the party.

 

[ggr]

I'm noting that perma-bear UBS is, at least, internally consistent. Their revenue numbers are right at the bottom of the list.

So we have wrong, dead-wrong, and manipulatively wrong. Plus some others!

I put the numbers in, however, and by my reckoning it is not quite so dire a skew as ggr suggests. Without the two manipulators, the consensus becomes $7,025mm. Happy to have someone else check my calculator-pushing.

'Tweren't me suggested the skew... @FactChecking.

Apologies. Corrected as needed.

 

[ggies07]

F9 has landed!

 

[Tslynk67]

F9 has landed!

Great landing - sea looks quite choppy!

 

[tivoboy]

T-10 min

Never gets old. It’s literally rocket science. ( well it’s really just science)

 

[Buckminster]

F9 has landed!

They sure do put a lot of effort in to make these launches and landings as real as possible - every one is done in different weather etc. If they keep this up, the majority of the public will start thinking that Apollo was IRL.

 

[lklundin]

OT

There's a SpaceX launch this morning

Sorry to bother everyone, but what is max pain estimated to be for today?

 

[viridi]

Bob Lutz coming on to CNBC soon to discuss GM's upward guidance. Should be interesting to see if he takes one of his usual digs at Tesla.

 

[PhaseWhite]

It's not necessarily capital intensive: Tesla plans to use Model 3 drive units for the Semi as well - naively I'd expect it to be natural to use 2-4 of them in the Model S/X as well (two in the back, one per rear wheel, one or two in the front).

In the Tesla Pickup Truck I'd be very surprised if they didn't use four Model 3 drive units, one per wheel. That allows superior off-roading features.

Expansion of motor production is planned for the Semi, the Y and higher unit counts for Standard Range 3 anyway.

I also expect the Model 3 motor will be used in S and X. But in the rear only. The front will still be an induction motor because of the need to be able to run the motor in "neutral mode" which the Model 3 (Switched Reluctance motor) cannot do efficiently. This is the same reason the Model 3 AWD is configured this way.

For the non performance models S and X I think a single rear Model 3 motor plus the the existing front induction motor would make sense and would likely boost performance slightly since the Model 3 Motor makes slightly more power than the Model S non performance motors. (about 230KW vs 190KW max) and will also offer a nice efficiency boost over the induction motor. Combined with a larger battery pack, 400 Miles range or more is likely. Using the Model 3 motor and 2170 cells will also benefit from economies of scale so this should lower costs on the Model S and X and enable continued high margins or lower prices.

My guess is the performance models will stick with the large rear induction motor at-least in the short term and later they might see a more radical redesign using 3 motors, 2 Model 3 motors on the rear axis and an induction motor up front. This would enable about 635KW power output (850HP) in the P models and better track performance because of less overheating and independent rear wheel control without using the brakes. This would be similar to plans for the new roadster but at lower power levels likely limited by not having a 200KWH a battery pack.

 

[hoang51]

Maybe I didn't go back far enough, lost track of this thread... But maximum pain for options that expire next week is sitting at $400. I was going to sell TSLA and buy the dip pattern, but it looks like that might not be a good idea for the chance for MM to ramp up the stock price to kill some of the options. Anybody else seeing this options issue?