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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
While I personally withdrew my interest in the MY as the price creep drove it over $60K for most configurations, I don't see how Tesla won't continue the price creep trend. MY backlog is about 1 year today. That's not going to be a great customer experience waiting in that line. Why not increase the price until the backlog is more reasonable?
I was pissed about not ordering before all the increases, especially when I see Gross Margin at 30% (seems greedy or like gouging), but I realized lowering the price would not accelerate the mission one bit. The only way to accelerate the mission, with the current demand, is to make more cars faster. Tesla, being battery constrained, can't move the needle on more cars faster until they get more batteries. Lots of batteries. Tesla's prices will continue upward until batteries flow. Obviously, GigaTX and GigaBerlin will help, but they'll take many quarters to improve this calculus.
I'm so thankful that Elon was such a visionary with conviction and nerves of steel- willing to embark on the first gigafactory knowing early that inconceivable scale was one of the key components.
I was pissed about not ordering before all the increases, especially when I see Gross Margin at 30% (seems greedy or like gouging), but I realized lowering the price would not accelerate the mission one bit. The only way to accelerate the mission, with the current demand, is to make more cars faster. Tesla, being battery constrained, can't move the needle on more cars faster until they get more batteries. Lots of batteries. Tesla's prices will continue upward until batteries flow. Obviously, GigaTX and GigaBerlin will help, but they'll take many quarters to improve this calculus.
I'm so thankful that Elon was such a visionary with conviction and nerves of steel- willing to embark on the first gigafactory knowing early that inconceivable scale was one of the key components.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Please bear in mind these China numbers represent the sales, i.e. delivered cars, only.
Therefore I don't appreciate the remark from Gary Black where he states the "expected" sales were 55k-60k. This is highly subjective and only adds a negative spin to a great Tesla China November delivery number.
Production remains to be seen, and will only be known within a week or so. Inventory is a completely unknown variable, and the unwinding of the wave might have something to do with the current numbers.
Long story short: there is no reason for concern, despite what the pre-market trading wants us to believe.
I'd like to point out there are very, very few inventory M3's available in EU. Typically at this time in the quarter you would see ~100 M3 "in transit", available to purchase per country, this time almost nothing, just a handful of cars, which I suspect are cancelled orders
So either everything Tesla is able to ship has sold, or Tesla are only shipping orders
Could be supply-chain, maybe priority to China sales, unwinding the wave, all of these...
So either everything Tesla is able to ship has sold, or Tesla are only shipping orders
Could be supply-chain, maybe priority to China sales, unwinding the wave, all of these...
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One reason to not raise prices is to protect resale value - For your customers. People do total cost of ownership calculations - particularly for leases. A stable resale value percentage obtains more positive word of mouth advertising.
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I expect you have heard about how the west hobbles African economic development by pushing solar onto them.
Energy availability supports economic development and war readiness. If those are the goals all energy sources could be subsidized.
If I'm not totally wrong, there has been quite rough weathers for Tesla carriers from Shanghai, and there are some delays in shipments. And if a Tesla is not delivered to the customer, it's not conted as saled/exported..?
teslamotorsclub.com
2021 Shipping Movements
HOEGH TRACER may be heading for Gibraltar. I don't know why. I don't know what has happened to the cars she was taking to Zeebrugge. If your car was onboard I suggest you check My Cargo again to see if it's still onboard or whether it was unloaded in Santander. Please post here the result...
teslamotorsclub.com
I call BS on the poster saying there is no reason to be concerned. There is, at least in the short term.
Everyone has had untempered expectations what with hopes of CT soon (when clearly there is nowhere to produce the thing yet), China numbers (which I think were guessed or inferred from pseudo sources), 12/9 wishology (fairy tail wags the dog pipe dreams) and likely other Fully Self Deceptive (fsd) ideas. Then there is a whole parasite industry of twitter heads and youtubers that a) don't have to be honest about their positions/holdings/trades, b) don't necessarily bring a voice of reason because c) they are all trying to get views and therefore $$$ much in the same way modern media is so full of emotionalism and loot at me ism.
The net effect ends up being
-too many event based trades being placed
-unknown gaming of the system ???
-too much focus on the short term and underappreciation that there will be bumps in the road
-waste of time giving your eyeballs up to others rather than living life
-emotional and likely vi$ceral disappointment when the short term does not work out.
Everyone has had untempered expectations what with hopes of CT soon (when clearly there is nowhere to produce the thing yet), China numbers (which I think were guessed or inferred from pseudo sources), 12/9 wishology (fairy tail wags the dog pipe dreams) and likely other Fully Self Deceptive (fsd) ideas. Then there is a whole parasite industry of twitter heads and youtubers that a) don't have to be honest about their positions/holdings/trades, b) don't necessarily bring a voice of reason because c) they are all trying to get views and therefore $$$ much in the same way modern media is so full of emotionalism and loot at me ism.
The net effect ends up being
-too many event based trades being placed
-unknown gaming of the system ???
-too much focus on the short term and underappreciation that there will be bumps in the road
-waste of time giving your eyeballs up to others rather than living life
-emotional and likely vi$ceral disappointment when the short term does not work out.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
It's hard to get ships, crews, dock services due to various reasons. Tesla are getting them whenever they can. We've seen before that a ship leaving in last few days of a month isn't counted until it arrives (in the next month). It only takes 1 or 2 ships to cause concern on monthly numbers. If I'm reading ship ytracking correctly, GRAND DAHLIA left Shanghai on Nov 14, 01:30 and gets to Southampton, United Kingdom (UK) around Dec 11, 04:00If I'm not totally wrong, there has been quite rough weathers for Tesla carriers from Shanghai, and there are some delays in shipments. And if a Tesla is not delivered to the customer, it's not conted as saled/exported..?
2021 Shipping Movements
HOEGH TRACER may be heading for Gibraltar. I don't know why. I don't know what has happened to the cars she was taking to Zeebrugge. If your car was onboard I suggest you check My Cargo again to see if it's still onboard or whether it was unloaded in Santander. Please post here the result...
Viking Bravery & others seem to have this 4 week journey as well. There are a LOT of cars at sea at the moment, uncounted in the China numbers (I believe).
anywhere other than NASDAQ to get bi-monthly short data older than a year?
Don’t see how this can be considered a miss.
It is easy to see the fluctuations over the past 11 months. I mean, look at the plummet in production between March and April. What a disaster! Or the steady downtrend from May to July! Busted growth story!
Shanghai just had three consecutive months well above 50K production for the first time. That it might dawdle there for a bit to digest and fine tune its processes and supply chains as it prepares to ramp even further is not surprising. It is expected. Based on the above Shanghai is running at over 100% growth rate
since Q1, and I am not talking about going from 100 to 200 cars. How many car factories in the world produce more than 600K per year globally? For this to somehow turn into a miss is obviously totally on the observers and prognosticators.
The growth promised by Tesla has been the same for years now: 50% annually for the foreseeable future. it is ahead of the curve this year. I have no doubts for the next couple of years either.
I think high chance December turns into record month again in the high 50s, but if it doesn’t, prepare for the doomsayers. Oh, don’t bother, they are already here.
What I really want to know about is Berlin and Austin! Shanghai is doing great!
It is easy to see the fluctuations over the past 11 months. I mean, look at the plummet in production between March and April. What a disaster! Or the steady downtrend from May to July! Busted growth story!
Shanghai just had three consecutive months well above 50K production for the first time. That it might dawdle there for a bit to digest and fine tune its processes and supply chains as it prepares to ramp even further is not surprising. It is expected. Based on the above Shanghai is running at over 100% growth rate
since Q1, and I am not talking about going from 100 to 200 cars. How many car factories in the world produce more than 600K per year globally? For this to somehow turn into a miss is obviously totally on the observers and prognosticators.
The growth promised by Tesla has been the same for years now: 50% annually for the foreseeable future. it is ahead of the curve this year. I have no doubts for the next couple of years either.
I think high chance December turns into record month again in the high 50s, but if it doesn’t, prepare for the doomsayers. Oh, don’t bother, they are already here.
What I really want to know about is Berlin and Austin! Shanghai is doing great!
Too much noise when you consider one month vs another month. So many things adding to the noise. It’s been like that the entire history of Tesla, people seeing demand cliff in Norway first month of the quarter, demand cliff in China etc again and again. People who have failed to accurately predict the future. People who if they were intelligent agents would have tried to update their mental model of the world and the way the make inference on data.
The picture gets much clearar when you zoom out, filter through a moving average last 3 months, average last year etc.
The picture gets much clearar when you zoom out, filter through a moving average last 3 months, average last year etc.
Maybe I’m missing something, but since when is sequential month-to-month comparisons a thing? shouldn’t it always be year-over-year?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Can't be supply chain, deliveries are up 38.9% vs the first 2 mths of Q3: 107k vs 77k deliveries reported via CPCA.
Tesla is clearly succeeding in flattening the wave, and cresting at a very high level: with the high volume month of December still to be reported, Tesla is on track for over 165k deliveries in Q4 2021 from Shanghai alone.
Further, we're on track for 465k deliveries from Shanghai in 2021, and exiting the year at an annual run rate of about 650k:
All this, BEFORE the Giga Shanghai capacity expansion which is due to be complete by April 2022 (which likely involves the building currently under construction in the SW of the Giga Shanghai land parcel, near the Electrical sub-station).
And we haven't even MENTIONED the civil land works now begun in the NE corner adjacent lot. That'll be a topic for 2023...
Cheers!
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from the forms, it looks like the 3 executives got some $0 cost shares A, and sold around 1/2 of them, most likely for tax purposes (53%?) ending up with more shares
I too was looking to buy a MY in early 2022, but the constant price increases this year bothered me as well. It excited me as an investor, but bothered me as a soon to be customer.
However, I eventually shrugged that off and ordered my LR MY six weeks ago and now I'm going to pick up my first Tesla ever tomorrow. In the end I decided to stop waiting for the new government rebate and even take the price hike hits as well and simply order my car. I figure I should own the product I'm investing in, right? Plus life is short and I've made a LOT of money from my TSLA investments, realistically I can afford to give Tesla a little bit back. I even decided to give my Crosstrek to my mother instead of trading it in and pay even MORE for the MY out of pocket than I wanted to! So I'm taking financial hits all over this MY purchase, I'm going all in!
It's good to be prudent and wise with investing and finances, but in my opinion we have to remember to enjoy the fruits of our labors from time to time too.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Well, that's a nice jump up at 8 a.m. ET
Data last updated Dec 08, 2021 08:06 AM ET.
Cheers!
TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live
This page refreshes every 30 seconds.Data last updated Dec 08, 2021 08:06 AM ET.
| Consolidated Last Sale | $1,058.00 +6.25 (+0.59%) |
|---|---|
| Pre-Market Volume | 273,870 |
| Pre-Market High | $1,057 (08:01:49 AM) |
| Pre-Market Low | $1,034.1 (04:18:47 AM) |
Cheers!
You could try the CBOE data shop,,, relatively inexpensive. Problem would be parsing all the data to find short interests/spikes.
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