Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

More Commentary on the 52,859 Shanghai November Wholesale Number

Excellent comments from fellow members on the Shanghai November number. So I have little to add.
I do want to tag on to @Lycanthrope 's comment that the number may have been effected by logistics.

It's my understanding that a vehicle counts as a wholesale sales in China when the car gets loaded on a ship or delivered to a dealership (for Tesla the Delivery Center). That's why the sales are referred to as Wholesale sales.

Shanghai's Luchao port is 20 min from Tesla's GF3. In October, Tesla loaded ships on Oct 29, 30 and 31 meaning much of what was produced counted as a Wholesale sale as it was loaded 20 min away.
In November, Tesla stopped loading on Nov 19. There were 11 days of production that went onto truck carriers to be delivered to delivery centers some with up to 2-3 days transit time. I believe that there are 3-4 day of production in transit and some sitting in the logistics lot waiting for carriers.

My guess is that production in November was 59,000 units resulting in a 6,141 inventory build.
We will know better once production is reported in 10 days or so.
Number in yellow below is my estimate.

View attachment 741948

Thanks I was wondering that this morning when does a sale get recorded and just popped on to TMC and you provided the answer.

 

[thx1139]

If gasoline was 2-4X more expensive, like in Europe, we wouldn't need as many subsidies for EVs. Let's get rid of gas subsidies already.

100% agree, yet Europe still has subsidies and it would be political suicide for either of the major parties in US to do that.

 

[elasalle]

We will know better once production is reported in 10 days or so.

Do production numbers get reported as well? (prior to Q4 deliveries from Tesla in Jan)

 

[jhm]

Whatever happened to prof kuoguan or what not. Need some cheerleading to get the price up! I thought I would be hearing how he picked up another 1000000000000 shares yesterday via leverage or something.

Elon shut him down.

 

[thx1139]

If you want to see how to boost EV sales by government action, then look at Norway, they have achieved 90% plug-in sales (most of them pure EV). They did not achieve this by throwing money at EV buyers, instead they have prohibitive taxes on ICE vehicles, all EVs got were exemption from various taxes and lower rates for ferries, parking and toll-roads. Totally different approach than giving subsidies for EV purchase. They are using the stick, not the carrot:

Norwegian EV policy

elbil.no

Sure, but we cant even use a stick to get people to get vaccinated to stop a pandemic. You think that people in the US would react maturely to a stick on ICE vehicles.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

With New Street going to $1580, and a bunch 9f others moving to $1200-1400, I think fomo is gonna start soon. Maybe.... 12/9?

 

[thx1139]

The old incentives are not expiring. Every other company will have the opportunity to partake in the exact same opportunity and incentives Tesla did.

They can get incentives to produce 200k vehicles. They can use it wisely as Tesla did. Or squander it as GM did.

The current state actually gives the advantage to Tesla’s competitors like Ford and Rivian for several years.

And it isnt limited to 200K. 200K is just when the time starts. Tesla had 1.5 years of additional incentives. Tesla timed it right and was still just ramping up Model 3 when they hit 200K.

 

[thx1139]

And how are lower income people supposed to get to work if they can’t afford the gas? Gas is so expensive in Europe because healthcare and childcare don’t eat 40-50% of the average family’s income. Don’t get me wrong - I am against gas subsidies but we cannot just take them away unless there’s an alternative already in place.

Hence the need for the EV subsidy and charging infrastructure. First. Otherwise, there will be a real labor problem in this country.

And Europe has awesome public transportation to boot.

 

[jeewee3000]

And Europe has awesome public transportation to boot.

Meh. Only in the major cities.

 

[The Accountant]

Do production numbers get reported as well? (prior to Q4 deliveries from Tesla in Jan)

yes - we should get production numbers for November some time between Dec 16-20th.

 

[thx1139]

Meh. Only in the major cities.

Even if that is 100% true it still puts US to shame. We have many major cities without trains at all bringing people in to work. When we have visited Europe we have taken trains everywhere.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Even if that is 100% true it still puts US to shame. We have many major cities without trains at all bringing people in to work. When we have visited Europe we have taken trains everywhere.

In the UK, it is often cheaper and faster to use a car if you live in the suburbs, even to get into a major city like London.
The reliability, cost, cleanliness etc. varies greatly from country to country in Europe. I avoid taking trains in the UK wherever possible particularly now I drive an EV.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Apologies if it was already given but Buttigieg (Transportation secretary) gave a rebuttal to Elon's comments about dumping the EV subsidy. It is nice to at least get some effort at an explanation before 100s of Billions goes out the door at least, though I don't personally find the arguments compelling as someone who is aware of opportunity cost as an economic concept.

Pete Buttigieg fires back after Elon Musk blasts federal spending on EVs, saying there are 'things that don't happen on their own'

U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg on Tuesday pushes back on Tesla CEO Elon Musk's criticism of the Biden administration's efforts to boost...

www.marketwatch.com

Before reading the article, I thought it would be very interesting to see Buttigieg and Musk on the same stage talking about the big issues in transportation, but if the article fairly represents what Buttigieg said, perhaps it wouldn’t actually be that interesting. I’m inclined to believe Buttigieg’s remarks were written well before knowing what Elon would say (and thus the article title is hooey, imagine that) and he now has the feeling he should sharpen his arguments.

 

[SOULPEDL]

With New Street going to $1580, and a bunch 9f others moving to $1200-1400, I think fomo is gonna start soon. Maybe.... 12/9?

Or 12/8.

 

[jhm]

Frankly, I find this whole Elon not wanting USA subsidies to continue a bit hypocritical. They benefited greatly when others were trying to follow and if their MISSION STATEMENT is still “to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy” then they should be just as happy that other fast (or slow) followers get the same benefits and incentives that Tesla did. If not, It rings a bit hollow to me at least.

I don't see the hypocrisy here. All automakers benefited equally from the subsidies that Tesla had access to. But the difference is that all but Tesla squandered this, wasting public funds and still woefully under prepared to be competitive in the BEV market. For the government to throw good money at the companies that are most resistant to real change is not going to meet with better outcomes this decade than it did last decade. They only thing that will truly accelerate the transition to sustainable transport is for ICE makers to go out of business and allow competitive EV makers to fill the void in the new car market.

The faster oil, gas, coal and ICE vehicle producers go out of business, the sooner the climate emergency will be addressed.

 

[jbcarioca]

Meh. Only in the major cities.

Is it not interesting that most major analysts and 'competitors' persistently underestimate Tesla's success? The EU long distance driving habits (e.g. August) seem to be not well understood as drivers for increasing BEV adoption. It is as if people do not understand the operating cost advantages of BEV vs ICE in fuel and maintenance. Whatever tax benefits there might be just act to accelerate the rate of adoption.

Grüneheide probably will exceed our expectations, with the large consequences obvious by late 2022.
What will happen when 130-150 kph real range rises to ~600 km? That should happen within the next year or so. Then big Tesla/Porsche/Audi etc will become more nearly normal. Thus far all the speculation is on smaller vehicles. I used to commute between Hamburg and Amsterdam, often enough that I began to recognize other commenters, almost all of us in large diesels. That market will soon be BEV. All that is needed is more range. [ plus a VERY loud warning when passing in to the Netherlands. Lacking that is EXPENSIVE)

 

[Mengy]

More Commentary on the 52,859 Shanghai November Wholesale Number

Excellent comments from fellow members on the Shanghai November number. So I have little to add.
I do want to tag on to @Lycanthrope 's comment that the number may have been effected by logistics.

It's my understanding that a vehicle counts as a wholesale sales in China when the car gets loaded on a ship or delivered to a dealership (for Tesla the Delivery Center). That's why the sales are referred to as Wholesale sales.

Shanghai's Luchao port is 20 min from Tesla's GF3. In October, Tesla loaded ships on Oct 29, 30 and 31 meaning much of what was produced counted as a Wholesale sale as it was loaded 20 min away.
In November, Tesla stopped loading on Nov 19. There were 11 days of production that went onto truck carriers to be delivered to delivery centers some with up to 2-3 days transit time. I believe that there are 3-4 days of production in transit and some sitting in the logistics lot waiting for carriers.

My guess is that production in November was 59,000 units resulting in a 6,141 inventory build.
We will know better once production is reported in 10 days or so.
Number in yellow below is my estimate.

View attachment 741948

Yeah, I think this is very likely.

 

[thx1139]

In the UK, it is often cheaper and faster to use a car if you live in the suburbs, even to get into a major city like London.
The reliability, cost, cleanliness etc. varies greatly from country to country in Europe. I avoid taking trains in the UK wherever possible particularly now I drive an EV.

So do I in Chicago, but if we didnt have trains it would be a horrible nightmare.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't see the hypocrisy here. All automakers benefited equally from the subsidies that Tesla had access to. But the difference is that all but Tesla squandered this, wasting public funds and still woefully under prepared to be competitive in the BEV market. For the government to throw good money at the companies that are most resistant to real change is not going to meet with better outcomes this decade than it did last decade. They only thing that will truly accelerate the transition to sustainable transport is for ICE makers to go out of business and allow competitive EV makers to fill the void in the new car market.

The faster oil, gas, coal and ICE vehicle producers go out of business, the sooner the climate emergency will be addressed.

People keep mischaracterizing his comments here as well. He said he would like all subsidies ended, including oil and gas. That would greatly assist any company that is actually trying to sell EVs, and would be FAR more effective than keeping the status quo and giving the UAW extra money to sell hybrids.

 

[jhm]

I really want to write something pithy, insightful, and on point. All I’ve got is Ba, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha.

Oil CEOs raise alarm over market's readiness to drop fossil fuels

A coming transition from oil and gas to renewables will be "messy" for many years and lead to sharp energy price volatility as demand and supply clash, top energy executives said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

The oil and gas markets have always been volatile. After a century of massive volatility inducing famine, wars and global recessions, they get to blame it all on renewable energy. Utter bunk.