Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

They'll want to ride the Lower-BB down as long as Elon's selling lasts.

Lol. Closing SP: $966.41 Lower-BB at the Close: $966.44

Hedgies r so predictable... LAST FRIDAY

Lower-BB is at just below 974 right now. Do you think shortzes and hedgies won't push for that?

Cheers!

 

[woodisgood]

Pile that award up next to the Level 3 autonomy award for Mercedes EQS that has a whole bunch of fine print written all over it. Nothing on Rivian, I think they'll do fine. But apparently just being able to prototype a vehicle is all you have to do to have it be considered a contender for a vehicle of the year category. Nikola needs to take notes.

To be fair they more than prototyped it. They invited press and influencers to test the trucks and made them feel special.

All part of the game that Tesla doesn’t want or need to play.

 

[bkp_duke]

Automotive manufacturing plants are notoriously high energy consumers… more so than one would expect. Its not just the heavy manufacturing body shop or the final assembly but often the paint shop uses the MOST energy overall. And that is just the energy that goes into direct costs for manufacturing. In a giant large usually open space bigger often than giant aircraft hangers, just HEATING the place for the employees is a massive energy suck. Oddly, paint shop is often the overall highest consumer since air handing is such a priority in order to keep air particles out for quality spray and having no impurities in the paint jobs. It’s also very cavernous (like a manufacturing facility overall) and that too has to be quite precisely temperature controlled - again like the big open manufacturing facility space. All large consumers of energy. Much of this is high voltage electricity but a plant will certainly use nat gas to create the heat required for plant operations during the colder months. Freemont certainly has more stable temperature for the winter months, compared to say southern or east Germany, but laws of thermodynamics say - bigger open volume of air require more energy to change temp, up or down. up is actually harder and requires more energy than down.

This is not to say that Tesla energy couldn’t put in some large megapack array (might not be able to replace the air heating scenarios unless one had simply true heat exchangers) but could certainly keep ops running, certainly final assembly for some period of time. But, is it worth it, for the maybe half day or shift of downtime that might occur once every 18 months? I’m sure (or at least I HOPE) that someone in Tesla vehicle manufacturing and Tesla energy has done this thought exercise with some real numbers from their factory. Something tells me they probably have.

You are completely missing the "cost" part of this. Even if Megapacks could not fully meet demand during a power outage, they could (and have been used in the past frequently at superchargers) to perform "cost shaving". The largest part of a power bill for an industrial facility is the "demand charge", which powerpacks would shave nicely.

The calculus for Tesla comes down to "does it make more financial sense to deploy these on our own property, or sell them". That then comes down in large part to the rates set by the utility company.

 

[tivoboy]

You are completely missing the "cost" part of this. Even if Megapacks could not fully meet demand during a power outage, they could (and have been used in the past frequently at superchargers) to perform "cost shaving". The largest part of a power bill for an industrial facility is the "demand charge", which powerpacks would shave nicely.

The calculus for Tesla comes down to "does it make more financial sense to deploy these on our own property, or sell them". That then comes down in large part to the rates set by the utility company.

While this converstaion and point started with a question about backup power at Fremont for loss of power options, I’ll agree there is a calculus for cost shifting power depending on prevailing rates - although in CA at least in certain areas at the consumer level, we’re not allowed to draw from the grid at cheap prices to fill batteries and deploy from that storage when that cost is higher.

But yes, I’m sure they prefer to deploy limited supply megapacks to customers, book revenues instead of credits to op Ex.

 

[tivoboy]

Lol. Closing SP: $966.41 Lower-BB at the Close: $966.44

View attachment 743968

Hedgies r so predictable... LAST FRIDAY



Cheers!

Lower highs and lower lows usually indicates something, but I’m going to have to go back to the textbooks to find it.

 

[Beltsbear]

You are completely missing the "cost" part of this. Even if Megapacks could not fully meet demand during a power outage, they could (and have been used in the past frequently at superchargers) to perform "cost shaving". The largest part of a power bill for an industrial facility is the "demand charge", which powerpacks would shave nicely.

The calculus for Tesla comes down to "does it make more financial sense to deploy these on our own property, or sell them". That then comes down in large part to the rates set by the utility company.

That is not really correct. Most large industrial facilities don't have overwhelming demand charges. One of the worst cases for a demand charge is an EV car charger, which a huge peak but little usage outside the peak. A car factory has a rather steady state demand and therefore not much in the way of demand charges. Unless it is an electric smelting facility that only runs a few hours a week, a factory chugs along with not huge changes.

 

[ZeApelido]

"But he's not doing enough for humanity" they said.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470519361295335425

 

[Prunesquallor]

"But he's not doing enough for humanity" they said.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470519361295335425

Probably production of methane via Sabatier. They’ll need a source of green hydrogen, so probably solar-powered water electrolysis.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Probably production of methane via Sabatier. They’ll need a source of green hydrogen, so probably solar-powered water electrolysis.

How much CO2 can we remove? Global scale carbon sequestration is mandatory at this point, we have no options left since nations refuse to cut their emissions even when all of humanity is threatened with extinction.

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon is selling ~930k shares a tranche and a tranche a week. By most estimates, he had 5 tranches more to go.

This week's gonna be crazy because it's the last full week before the holidays and potentially the only one with any liquidity. It is possible two tranches are sold, but by my estimates, S&P funds have to pick up 1.5 million shares this Friday on rebalancing.

So brace for a volatile week.

Didn't Elon say, " If you like the choir, you will love the drop." I associate choirs with Christmas.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470509710373801989

Ugh

Come on people use your brains here. The India official is clearly referencing the article that was taken down about the China official saying Giga China would hit 500k production for 2021.

It would require production of like 87,000 for Dec. That's not even close to being in the realm of possibility at this point given Nov production numbers. Which btw, still trying to make sense of the Nov production numbers. How they only did 2,000 or so more production in Nov when there was a whole week of downtime in Oct makes no sense. There must have been rolling off days throughout Nov due to something like parts supplies.

The November production number has not yet been published, you are referring to the sales number. There can be a substantial difference between production and sales if a lot of cars were still en route to delivery centers or waiting for a ship.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The November production number has not yet been published, you are referring to the sales number. There can be a substantial difference between production and sales if a lot of cars were still en route to delivery centers or waiting for a ship.

No I'm referring to the Nov production number. It's around the 55-57k mark. Someone on this forum already confirmed that and Gary during his podcast confirmed the number. Even if the production number was 60k, the idea that they're going to increase production by 27,000 vehicles over one month is quite unrealistic....and I'm quite a bullish person on China production.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Didn't Elon say, " If you like the choir, you will love the drop." I associate choirs with Christmas.

He said "chorus", and it's not related at all to stocks. People forget that Elon made an EDM track, the infamous "Don't doubt ur vibe".

The drop is a reference to the 'bass drop' which is something that happens in EDM.

Drop (music) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Words of HABIT]

Didn't Elon say, " If you like the choir, you will love the drop." I associate choirs with Christmas.

Making short term trades based on interpreting EM's tweeting is no better than relying on numerology. Not every tweet needs to link back to Tesla. The 12/9 is just one example where Retail Traders got burned thinking they knew better. If EM has the word "Tesla" in his tweet, only then will I believe he is talking about Tesla. No word, then noth'n bout Tesla. Simple.

 

[MC3OZ]

hahaha, I know I know. But like, batteries is their thing...I think they have some storage there right? or is that Nevada? I'm just saying one would think a company selling storage would not have this problem...

The Battery Day presentation mentioned energy storage moving to a iron chemistry (LFP).

When that happens, I think we will start to see solar and batteries deployed more widely at factories and fast chargers.

Tesla should also move beyond being "cell constrained", at least to the extent of being able to make and sell a lot more energy storage batteries.

 

[ZeApelido]

Probably production of methane via Sabatier. They’ll need a source of green hydrogen, so probably solar-powered water electrolysis.

"Did someone say hydrogen?"

 

[Prunesquallor]

How much CO2 can we remove? Global scale carbon sequestration is mandatory at this point, we have no options left since nations refuse to cut their emissions even when all of humanity is threatened with extinction.

Elon is trying to make Starship (at least) carbon-neutral and avoid being a fossil-fuel customer. Burning the methane in the atmosphere during launch returns some of the CO2, though some of the CO2 produced during Mars missions will be removed from the biosphere.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla related: info for USA-only drivers on differences with both Autopilot in UK/Europe and UK roads.

Youtube video of 7 seater Model Y Standard Range (UK won't get these for a LONG time) in Los Angeles by prominent UK EV dealer & youtuber (his own channel, plus gets millions of views on CarWow channel as well).

Might be interesting for a number of reasons, especially comments on UK/USA differences on roads, signage, road width, autopilot settings/capability.

Teasers for future videos on Lucid, Rivian, Mercedes EQS, MachE and meeting "prominent Tesla YouTubers"

There have been a few comments in this thread on differences in various world markets, I think it's important for investors to understand different markets. I'm doing my bit by trying to understand USA "Truck" (Ute) market - not there yet, still bewildered, but learned a lot. I'm still left with the question of why does a granny need something the size of a small tank with an open bed (that someone can just nick stuff from) for grocery shopping?

Edit: just checked, all versions of F150 are longer than a small tank, smallest F150 is 5.3 metres

FV107 Scimitar
Length	4.9 m
Width	2.2 m
Height	2.1 m

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - hour ago: Here’s why Dan Nathan’s about to get rid of his new electric Ford Mustang Mach-E — Hint: It’s not the car

It's the dearth of charging stations compared to those for Teslas.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

In the short term, Elon finishing up his selling before year's end is NOT going to be fun.

In the long term, all this is doing is delaying my retirement but if Elon thinks he can stop me from retiring he needs to realize he has to dump his entire stake and bankrupt the company in order to make that happen now. Your move, Elon.