Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Elon is planning to provide an updated Tesla product roadmap on the Q4 Conference Call. Yet we all know that Tesla's REAL product is the factory, which is evolving rapidly. So, I think its time that we make a list of future Innovations planned for Giga Texas: (the new mothership)

1. Plaid Model Y - f/r castings, structural 4680 bty pack, carbon overwrapped SRPM motors == low volume, high margin car to start production (Jan 2022) - this is just a teaser, produced by integrating exisiting tech which is now spread over several products and facilities
2. Cybertruck - monsterous performance, outrageous tech, ultimate overlander (Jan 2023) - hardcore smackdown to pickup trucks; makes them eat quiche
3. Cathode plant - not yet under construction, though factory footprint already layed out on East side of Main Plant, beyond the current main parking lot. Brings another critical component in-house, essential for exponential production ramp (possibly 2023/24; may depend on separate Piedmont Lithium hydroxide source, and/or Tesla lithium brine extraction process); could be associated with Redwood Materials recycling plant due in 2025
4. Texas Institute of Science and Technology - where else would you put the new campus but within sight of Giga Texas? With over 4 square miles of contiguous land owned by Tesla, and with easy access to the City of Austin and its Int'l Airport, this will be a very attractive site for post-secondary students, and with nearly assured internship and work experience opportunites. (Date pending an announcement and possible endowment from Elon to fund this new institution)
5. Robots. Lots of Robots. Sorcerer's Apprentice level of Robots, and the Factory that builds them. Built with assistance of robots.
6. Integration with SpaceX (Starlink terminal manufacturing) and Boring Company (anybody else notice there's no obvious place for a Logistics lot at Giga Texas, other than perhaps the existing East employee parking lot)

I'm sure you can think of more. Share your ideas with the group.

Finally, I draw your attention to the parallels between Giga Texas and the fictional Industrial Campus described in the Tom Swift series of novels. Elon was inspired by many works of fiction in his boyhood; I believe this was one of them. Paging @Prunesquallor

Tom Swift and His Electric Runabout (1910) | Wikipedia - in this story, Tom creates a nickel bty giving a 500-mile range to his home-made electric car, at a time when Henry Ford had just started building his "Model T" 2 years earlier.

Cheers!

Lol. The original YA novels were well before my time. I was into “Tom Swift Jr”. I would hypothesize that Tom’s “Triphibian Atomicar” could have been inspiration for a young Elon. Drives, flies, goes on water (sound familiar)?

 

[mars_or_bust]

Famously hackish website Jalopnik just ran a piece claiming that the CEO of Time is biased towards Musk because he is a SpaceX investor.

Shocker, but they have been accused themselves of writing favorable coverage for advertisers.

Gizmodo Media Staff Enraged at New CEO’s ‘Insane’ Direction

High-level staffers at the company that now owns ex-Gawker sites like Jezebel and Deadspin complain their new leader is destroying a famously freewheeling culture.

www.thedailybeast.com

Two people with knowledge told The Daily Beast that in a private meeting, Spanfeller reviewed the coverage of Lexus with the editor-in-chief of Jalopnik, a car-focused website, to ensure that its stories did not discourage the luxury automaker from advertising with G/O sites.

As Elon would say: "projecting"

 

[Paracelsus]

Despite the fact that Elon recruited Robyn Denholm for the Tesla Chair and Gwynne Shotwell as SpaceX President and COO, I am standing by awaiting Rachel Maddow and CNN to accuse Elon of being a misogynist for ‘attacking’ Ms Warren any minute now…………..just as they accused Bernie of being by fabricating his Bernie Bro crowd while Bernie had AOC, Nina Turner, and Tulsi Gabbard at his side

Truth in media, huh?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Despite the fact that Elon recruited Robyn Denholm for the Tesla Chair and Gwynne Shotwell as SpaceX President and COO, I am standing by awaiting Rachel Maddow and CNN to accuse Elon of being a misogynist for ‘attacking’ Ms Warren any minute now…………..just as they accused Bernie of being by fabricating his Bernie Bro crowd while Bernie had AOC, Nina Turner, and Tulsi Gabbard at his side

Truth in media, huh?

You're literally painting a picture in your own head and then complaining about it. On a Tesla fan forum.

Stop watching so much TV, you're gonna drive yourself nuts.

 

[Sofie]

I'm starting to suspect that this broker is leaking Elon's daily sales plan to hedge funds. We've seen multiple sales days now where there was a large drop in the pre-market on zero news (literally 12-hrs before the SEC Form 4 was released).

Take for example yesterday, Mon Dec 13, 2021. There was a huge bear raid in the pre-market from about 9 a.m. causing the SP to Open at a $20 discount, followed by heavy short selling throughout the day (4x multiple on macros vs the more typical 2x multiple):

View attachment 744210

It's not the first time either that shortzes have jumped on the pre-Market on days when Elon was selling. But it's illegal for brokers to share private information on selling plans, right? Because they'd get in trouble with the SEC, right?

/S

So today…another Elon sell day…

 

[Artful Dodger]

So today…another Elon sell day…

We can hope.

 

[Sofie]

There's a lot of incentive for him to wrap it up this year actually. He would pay more taxes on anything he sells next year if the BBB plan passes I believe. I could be wrong so maybe someone can correct me on that.

Which is part of the reason I see further downside considering how the market has been able to front run every Elon sell.

He said he wanted to finish this year. I don’t doubt that’s exactly what he will do. He will continue to finish up selling and end this year. There is no giving to universities or saving his sales until after the new year, in my mind.

 

[woodisgood]

So today…another Elon sell day…

Clean energy and solar stocks were all hit pretty hard early in the day and then recovered some into the close, and TSLA mirrored that pattern. So I’d guess not another sell day but who knows.

 

[henchman24]

So today…another Elon sell day…

Would be great... if he sold again, he'd have only 4 or 5 more sales to complete.

 

[EVDRVN]

Firstly, compare Giga Texas to Giga Shanghai. New Model Y cars will exit the GA line near the SW corner of the plant, and there's certainly no room for a logistic lot over there. Tunnel to the other side of the highway? Or to the far East side of the plant? There's also no obvious place for a test track (Shanghai has two already, both near the exits of their respective assembly halls).

The Boring Company has established operations about 30 miles from Giga Texas,. I suspect there's a reason for this beyond just convenience for Elon to visit (he likely doesn't need to see the gopher dig the hole). Could it be that Boring Tunnels are part of the Master Site Plan for Giga Texas?

Genuinely intrigued.

It's how they deliver and retrieve Texas cars sold unseen to avoid the dealer restrictions.

 

[mars_or_bust]

I suspect that this tweet about biotech/gene editing will prove to be very important. Maybe not for Tesla (at this stage), but perhaps Neuralink - one can enhance ones abilties through the neuralink implant, but also through gene editing. I think Elon mentioned a few years ago that gene editing is too slow to keep up with AI, but there has been tremendous advancement in this field in the past few years, so he apparently changed his mind. Will be interesting to follow...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470838559712161796

 

[JustSaying]

Elon is planning to provide an updated Tesla product roadmap on the Q4 Conference Call. Yet we all know that Tesla's REAL product is the factory, which is evolving rapidly. So, I think its time that we make a list of future Innovations planned for Giga Texas: (the new mothership)

1. Plaid Model Y - f/r castings, structural 4680 bty pack, carbon overwrapped SRPM motors == low volume, high margin car to start production (Jan 2022) - this is just a teaser, produced by integrating exisiting tech which is now spread over several products and facilities
2. Cybertruck - monsterous performance, outrageous tech, ultimate overlander (Jan 2023) - hardcore smackdown to pickup trucks; makes them eat quiche
3. Cathode plant - not yet under construction, though factory footprint already layed out on East side of Main Plant, beyond the current main parking lot. Brings another critical component in-house, essential for exponential production ramp (possibly 2023/24; may depend on separate Piedmont Lithium hydroxide source, and/or Tesla lithium brine extraction process); could be associated with Redwood Materials recycling plant due in 2025
4. Texas Institute of Science and Technology - where else would you put the new campus but within sight of Giga Texas? With over 4 square miles of contiguous land owned by Tesla, and with easy access to the City of Austin and its Int'l Airport, this will be a very attractive site for post-secondary students, and with nearly assured internship and work experience opportunites. (Date pending an announcement and possible endowment from Elon to fund this new institution)
5. Robots. Lots of Robots. Sorcerer's Apprentice level of Robots, and the Factory that builds them. Built with assistance of robots.
6. Integration with SpaceX (Starlink terminal manufacturing) and Boring Company (anybody else notice there's no obvious place for a Logistics lot at Giga Texas, other than perhaps the existing East employee parking lot)

I'm sure you can think of more. Share your ideas with the group.

Finally, I draw your attention to the parallels between Giga Texas and the fictional Industrial Campus described in the Tom Swift series of novels. Elon was inspired by many works of fiction in his boyhood; I believe this was one of them. Paging @Prunesquallor

Tom Swift and His Electric Runabout (1910) | Wikipedia - in this story, Tom creates a nickel bty giving a 500-mile range to his home-made electric car, at a time when Henry Ford had just started building his "Model T" 2 years earlier.

Cheers!
[/QUOTE
"Tom Swift" A flash back. Thanks, I had forgotten that I read many of the adventures of Tom books over 60 years ago...

 

[Prunesquallor]

I suspect that this tweet about biotech/gene editing will prove to be very important. Maybe not for Tesla (at this stage), but perhaps Neuralink - one can enhance ones abilties through the neuralink implant, but also through gene editing. I think Elon mentioned a few years ago that gene editing is too slow to keep up with AI, but there has been tremendous advancement in this field in the past few years, so he apparently changed his mind. Will be interesting to follow...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470838559712161796

I think this may be another example of stocks that completely befuddle WS. I reluctantly liquidated my ARKG to buy the TSLA dips - it had been trading sideways for a while. Hard to choose between stocks that you feel should both be zooming.

 

[mltv]

Toyota unveils an electric truck to compete with the F-150 Lightning and Rivian R1T

With the electric F-150 Lightning months away from customers, Toyota is showing off the battery-powered truck that could challenge it.

www.businessinsider.com

Toyota give preview of its upcoming EV pickup truck. No time line.

 

[MC3OZ]

Trucks and containers are definately out for Boring tunnels: they are too big to fit.

While bigger tunnels is one solution, another solution is smaller containers.

Slice a container in half along the horizontal and vertical axis, now make it a bit smaller so 4 of these can easily pack within a regular container.
Shipping freight in tunnels would also need special sleds/trucks, which is where Tesla comes in.

A big plus would be these small containers could more easily fit in a lift for transport above ground and to higher floors.

But when a lot of the cars are in tunnels there is more room above ground for trucks, so it could go either way, freight in tunnels isn't essential.

But smaller containers has one other advantage, more timely delivery, rather than delivering a big container once per day, 4 smaller containers could be delivered at different times, providing more chance to slip in additional stock during the day. Or if inventory runs low, and additional 5th container can be dispatched.

The application I'm thinking specifically about is Supermarkets, often these need to be located at street level due to shipping logistics.
But any retail business turning over high volumes of stock is a candidate, mail and package logistics are a candidate.

It is quicker to pack a smaller container than a big one, overall the packing time is the same, but each container spends less time at the warehouse in a semi-packed state.

Obviously if the Boring Company is successful, it will buy a lot of vehicles and batteries from Tesla.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I love that guy.

I'll never understand the hate for Warren. Obviously talking smack on Elon isn't gonna make you too popular on TMC. All she's really done was to call out the banks/Summers/Greenspan from 2005 til everything exploded in 2008, then advocate for reform. What's wrong with that?

Not a fan of attacking individuals, but apparently that's what works. A big reason I'm really not in either party right now. I guess if you're gonna talk smack, you gotta be ready to get some back.

I'm sure this FoxNews nonsense will get cleaned up from the thread, but it shouldn't surprise anyone to find out Warren never claimed any Native American ancestry. Harvard found out about it while she was on the staff and added her to the list so they wouldn't look so white. Big deal.


Mod edit: BARELY squeaks by getting deleted. Probably should be.

 

[RobDickinson]

I'll never understand the hate for Warren. Obviously talking smack on Elon isn't gonna make you too popular on TMC. All she's really done was to call out the banks/Summers/Greenspan from 2005 til everything exploded in 2008, then advocate for reform. What's wrong with that?

8 years in working in the body that writes the tax laws and she is complaining about how people pay tax?

 

[mars_or_bust]

I think this may be another example of stocks that completely befuddle WS. I reluctantly liquidated my ARKG to buy the TSLA dips - it had been trading sideways for a while. Hard to choose between stocks that you feel should both be zooming.

I have some small investments in biotech (also liquidated ARKG a few months ago for some Tesla shares) - it has been a frustrating year in that area. It WILL go up, the TAM is huge, much bigger than it seems at first glance - curing cancers, curing genetic deficiencies, curing many age related diseases, actually making the DNA (and the body) younger, etc. Only now is the science there, or nearly there, but it is definitely not something WS is able to recognize - thus creating a long term buying opportunity.

It will be interesting to see how Elon plays into this space - and I am almost certain he will.

 

[2daMoon]

Because the whole point of borrowing against your stock holdings is to avoid selling it which would likely be a taxable event. Mortgages on your home enable you to have somewhere to live. It's not an obvious act to avoid a sale that would be taxable.

I don't see the difference between borrowing for a home and borrowing against stock as you are attempting to illustrate here.

When I borrow against margin to pay living expenses, the idea of avoiding experiencing a taxable event is not a consideration in the decision at all. Enabling my ability to live (as in your home example) is the primary consideration for me. I'm doing it this way in order to maximize my investment gains which will continue to grow and hopefully allow me to avoid living under a bridge later down the road.

Interest is paid to the lender for this privilege of them providing a loan against collateral. There is a cost to using the stock this way, and if the lender makes profit they pay tax for having created a loan against my shares.

This is no different to when a person buying a house uses real estate as collateral for a loan (to enable them to have somewhere to live). If a home "owner" found at a later date that their mortgaged home increased in value, would you expect the home owner to pay a Tax on the difference in value of their collateral securing a loan?

Eventually, when I decide to pay off the margin loan, or, decide to simply sell non-margin shares in order to spend the money, there is a tax in place called Capital Gains which will be applied. That is when owning a piece of a business turns back into money and this is an event defined in the tax code.

And, this is as true for someone just getting by as much as it is for someone who has billions.

If folks think that the billionaires could use their fortunes more effectively, maybe some of them could. Use of force via agents of government is not the way to persuade them. It would set a bad precedent that could bite everyone in such a jurisdiction in the rear. Examples of this sort of abuse abound throughout history.

P.S. I consider it a WIN whenever someone on my ignore list disagrees with me.

 

[jerry33]

Lol. The original YA novels were well before my time. I was into “Tom Swift Jr”. I would hypothesize that Tom’s “Triphibian Atomicar” could have been inspiration for a young Elon. Drives, flies, goes on water (sound familiar)?

View attachment 744366

I did read them.