Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

Can anyone point me to any data and/or estimates on the split between model 3 and model Y production at Fremont ? For that matter S/X split would be interesting as well. It is really only out of curiousity re mfg ramps and line capacities, as I don't drill to the financial level of detail of ascribing different prices, costs, margins. This is what I have at present.

I've been trying to get better granularity on my near-term (24m) forecasts. (Previously I'd only done some annual numbers). You can see why analysts are reluctant to put their estimates out there, the numbers just get unbelievably large, fantastically fast. Here is what I get if I assume no revenue growth in energy or services, and I assume that shareprice responds to maintain PE at approx 130. These are just bonkers numbers.

I hope Tesla start issuing this level of data routinely. Plus in about a year's time start issuing more data on energy division and services (inc chargers).

 

[dl003]

Wouldn't be surprised if he was selling today also.

 

[henchman24]

Yep two more tranches left, most likely before the new year, right guys?

Somewhere between 2-4, and my guess is it will be completed by the new year (I think 3 sales... one more this week and two next).

Cat is out of the bag though on how the market will react to it (which we all knew anyway), so the shorts front running it likely won't be able to dive the stock as much. When the dives happen, the market will step in for some short-term gains.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So it seems he’s not done selling.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1473712710563028993

Yep two more tranches left, most likely before the new year, right guys?

Wouldn't be surprised if he was selling today also.

Here's a novel suggestion: how about we focus on company value and stop bouncing around like peas in a whistle?

Cheers!

 

[dl003]

I'm not worried in the least. Just stating what I'm observing from the price action and call IV fluctuation. Call IVs are going up while the stock drifts down. Looks like the people selling shares are not the same as the ones buying calls.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I hope Tesla start issuing this level of data routinely.

Lol, you know that is NEVER going to happen, right? Tesla has been specific in saying that month to month variations in production are meaningless, and to focus on the long-term trend.

Providing more granular data is just feeding the trolls and short-sellers. Just look what happened 2 weeks ago with the China sales numbers being 2K below "expectations" (thanks tweeter Gary). Except that production was UP, and Tesla started shipping to remote areas in China earlier in the Quarter.

So focus on the noise, at your peril (and our entertainment).

 

[EVDRVN]

Lol, you know that is NEVER going to happen, right? Tesla has been specific in saying that month to month variations in production are meaningless, and to focus on the long-term trend.

Providing more granular data is just feeding the trolls and short-sellers. Just look what happened 2 weeks ago with the China sales numbers being 2K below "expectations" (thanks tweeter Gary). Except that production was UP, and Tesla started shipping to remote areas in China earlier in the Quarter.

So focus on the noise, at your peril (and our entertainment).

I hear the toilets at Fremont are going to be clogged again and the working conditions are going to be poor as the sewage floods out but it will put out any fires that may have started at the time. Everyone will have to work X-Mas overtime. Sorry Holiday overtime.

 

[StealthP3D]

Can anyone point me to any data and/or estimates on the split between model 3 and model Y production at Fremont ? For that matter S/X split would be interesting as well. It is really only out of curiousity re mfg ramps and line capacities, as I don't drill to the financial level of detail of ascribing different prices, costs, margins. This is what I have at present.

View attachment 747045

I've been trying to get better granularity on my near-term (24m) forecasts. (Previously I'd only done some annual numbers). You can see why analysts are reluctant to put their estimates out there, the numbers just get unbelievably large, fantastically fast. Here is what I get if I assume no revenue growth in energy or services, and I assume that shareprice responds to maintain PE at approx 130. These are just bonkers numbers.

View attachment 747046

I hope Tesla start issuing this level of data routinely. Plus in about a year's time start issuing more data on energy division and services (inc chargers).

It looks like you have estimated the rate of revenue growth, but margin assumptions don't show up in your spreadsheet. So, you have estimated earnings per quarter (from which the share price is projected) but I can't see how you get there from revenues without making margin assumptions.

 

[JRP3]

Here's a novel suggestion: how about we focus on company value and stop bouncing around like peas in a whistle?

Sounds like Elon's done selling:

So when you speculate it's OK, but not for anyone else?

 

[SmokyPeat]

I can understand the bickering and kvetching on the ugly red days, but today is a glorious Christmas gift. Let's just enjoy it!

 

[petit_bateau]

It looks like you have estimated the rate of revenue growth, but margin assumptions don't show up in your spreadsheet. So, you have estimated earnings per quarter (from which the share price is projected) but I can't see how you get there from revenues without making margin assumptions.

This is the quarterly spreadsheet I have with much the same format as the annual one I have previously shown. I don't drill down to the level of individual model or trim margins, I just assume a lumped automotive margin. In this I have held the automotive gross margin constant at the Q3-2021 level which I think is a fairly conservative modelling assumption (2022/2023 - my guess is material input costs are up, consumer prices are correspondingly up, logistics will go down, manufacturing efficiencies will likely improve - all of which I ignore). So in this model the increasing profits come primarily from a combination of increasing automotive volume and relatively constant overheads. As you can see the numbers go bonkers.

Are there any Fremont 3/Y splits out there ?

 

[Motor Mouth]

I can understand the bickering and kvetching on the ugly red days, but today is a glorious Christmas gift. Let's just enjoy it!

Ha! Welcome to TMC where the only people we hate more than $TSLAQ are the Judean People's Front. Splitters!

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Are there any Fremont 3/Y splits out there ?

Not seen anything official. You might be able to pick something out from the production spreadsheet that Rob Maurer uses. From memory I think he splits the figures.

 

[Krugerrand]

I can understand the bickering and kvetching on the ugly red days, but today is a glorious Christmas gift. Let's just enjoy it!

You haven’t been here very long. If you last more than a year, you’ll start to acquire the understanding you do not yet possess.

Christmas gift?! Bah, humbug.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Ha! Welcome to TMC where the only people we hate more than $TSLAQ are the Judean People's Front. Splitters!

Hey, I hate the Romans as much as anyone. If this keeps up, I'll have to join the Popular People's Front of Judea!

 

[Iain]

Hey, I hate the Romans as much as anyone. If this keeps up, I'll have to join the Popular People's Front of Judea!

“Where’s the popular people’s front of Judaea?”.....”he’s over there”

 

[Artful Dodger]

End-of-Day buying interest spinning up as we approach 'Power-hour':

Cheers!

 

[ZachF]

‘member when I said 1k by Christmas several months ago?

Told ya so!

 

[Artful Dodger]

July 26, 2021:

Oh, and happy TSLA christmas everyone!

Wait until battery manufacturing costs drop to $35/KWh and Tesla is building megapacks on a production line making several hundred per day.

‘member when I said 1k by Christmas several months ago?

Told ya so!

Not seeing the $1K here... or anywhere since July 1st, 2021.

Cheers!

 

[raffiniert]

@ZachF please tell me Christmas 2022 price. Thanks!