They sold their 1M car end of Q1 2020 since they built their 1M car in March 2020. Since Q2 2020->Q3 2021 = 1.037M. So they have hit over 2M since Q3's numbers. What Elon said gives us about zero clue on P&D for Q4.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
If I recall, a couple of quarters ago Tesla already made an adjustment to their warranty reserves so they could recognize a larger portion of warranty reserves as income. For years Montana Skeptic has been harping on Tesla's "unrealistic" warranty reserves and how this was going to come back to bite them. He said it was fraudulent and Tesla knew there wasn't enough in the reserves for all the issues they were going to have to deal with.
But Tesla looked at the data which showed they had been overly conservative and had been reserving too much in warranty reserves and adjusted it, dropping more earnings to the bottom line. Pretty sure Montana Skeptic just doubled down and claimed Tesla was increasing the level of fraud!
In any case, the recent wiring harness business doesn't amount to a hill of beans - most of the warranty reserves are to address the possibility of large scale battery recalls like the Bolt is experiencing.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Then by all means let's repeatedly post and link to his FUD.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I'm starting to suspect we may get a delayed reaction in the stock from P/D numbers unless they are truly blowout numbers (above 290k). Seems to be zero fear of missing out even though we're still 12% below the ATH which tells me there's zero fear amongst Wall St which then tells me shenanigans are on the way 
I'm not surprised that 1,100 was defended by MM's due to the call wall there but I have been somewhat surprised by lack of volume this week. If we don't pop from Q4 numbers that are least 280k, I'll probably look at some ways to take advantage of the lack of movement.
I'm not surprised that 1,100 was defended by MM's due to the call wall there but I have been somewhat surprised by lack of volume this week. If we don't pop from Q4 numbers that are least 280k, I'll probably look at some ways to take advantage of the lack of movement.
Yup they did and it has some material impacts for Tesla's earnings once they start seeing more cars come out of warranty. If I remember correctly, the adjustment the warranty reserves for production going forward, but they can't adjustment the warranty reserves for cars already delivered.If I recall, a couple of quarters ago Tesla already made an adjustment to their warranty reserves so they could recognize a larger portion of warranty reserves as income. For years Montana Skeptic has been harping on Tesla's "unrealistic" warranty reserves and how this was going to come back to bite them. He said it was fraudulent and Tesla knew there wasn't enough in the reserves for all the issues they were going to have to deal with.
But Tesla looked at the data which showed they had been overly conservative and had been reserving too much in warranty reserves and adjusted it, dropping more earnings to the bottom line. Pretty sure Montana Skeptic just doubled down and claimed Tesla was increasing the level of fraud!
In any case, the recent wiring harness business doesn't amount to a hill of beans - most of the warranty reserves are to address the possibility of large scale battery recalls like the Bolt is experiencing.
Up until now, the numbers of cars coming out of warranty has been very small, especially when they're ramping production at the same time. As we get into 2022 and 2023 where a much more significant amount of cars will be coming out of warranty because of the ramp of the Model 3 in 2019-2020, the readjustment of warranty reserves will have a bigger impact on earnings.
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My hunch is that Tsla will do okay as it has gained the full bull trend with the moving averages and has failed to break minor support at 1060 today.I'm starting to suspect we may get a delayed reaction in the stock from P/D numbers unless they are truly blowout numbers (above 290k). Seems to be zero fear of missing out even though we're still 12% below the ATH which tells me there's zero fear amongst Wall St which then tells me shenanigans are on the way
I'm not surprised that 1,100 was defended by MM's due to the call wall there but I have been somewhat surprised by lack of volume this week. If we don't pop from Q4 numbers that are least 280k, I'll probably look at some ways to take advantage of the lack of movement.
Don't get me wrong, I don't see a negative reaction, just maybe a delayed reaction. Similar to how we saw on positive data catalysts all throughout 2021.
(Of course as soon as I made that post TSLA started on a mini run so who knows, maybe FOMO will kick in here)
Glass half empty - Why is $TSLA down over these recalls?
Glass half full - Wow $TSLA is barely down after these big recalls.
Oh Ark makes a case for deworsification today . Cathie's fund are doing quite well today. I hold about 2% compared to my $TSLA across her funds and even the worse one is still up about 20%. So timing is important but being the dead investor certainly helps.
Glass half full - Wow $TSLA is barely down after these big recalls.
Oh Ark makes a case for deworsification today . Cathie's fund are doing quite well today. I hold about 2% compared to my $TSLA across her funds and even the worse one is still up about 20%. So timing is important but being the dead investor certainly helps.
CLK350
Member
The FUD doesn't dare bring up fake Tesla fires or accidents, too dangerous as they've been debunked in the past - so they bring China/ Starlink old news, the recent Tesla hood recall, and other EV companies issues or upgrades - *BULLISH* is what this means. They may still hold down the SP by Friday to 1100, as @Papafox and others mentioned. But next Monday is going to be another tough one, possibly leading to another gamma squeeze if strong enough.
Altho of course, they *could* always pull out a new one (nother major QQQ / Tech sector rotation, China cold war escalation, who knows what else). That would still be bullish longer term.
Post some more, please.
thesmokingman
Active Member
Fixed.Glass half empty - Why is $TSLA down over these recalls?
Glass half full - Wow $TSLA buy opportunity!
Are you asking about this part "Similar to how we saw on positive data catalysts all throughout 2021."
Tesla, GM and Ford Price Targets Raised by Citi. General Motors Is the Top Pick.
-Barron’sTrends in the auto industry all point toward a strong fourth quarter, Citigroup said, prompting analyst Itay Michaeli to raise his price targets on shares of Tesla , Ford Motor and General Motors .
Michaeli’s new price target for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) is $262, up from $236.
Whatever made the stock pop…
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm going to disagree and say very few would be out of warranty by now. Most people don't drive that much.
FTFY. At least half my gains have been from incremental investments after delayed reactions, subdued reactions, retraces, fill the gaps, etc.
Don't drive that much until your car has low wear and tear, no need for oil change and its cheap/zero cost to drive around. I normally put 10k miles a year on my car but the Model 3 is double this while our ICE car are reaching 4k miles a year.
I was going to say that I was a CEO of one; then my wife walked in and told me to take out the trash.
thesmokingman
Active Member
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