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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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In all seriousness, I've actually thought about that. Like, what's the point of starting my own if the expected ROI is higher if I just let it ride on TSLA? I've settled on thinking that it boils down to two factors:

1) What ROI I would actually expect, which first I'd need to actually try to estimate, because maybe I could outpace TSLA.

2) How much I'd enjoy the process for its own sake. I don't know the answers to this question yet because I don't even know which idea I'd pursue yet. However, all of them sound pretty fun and fulfilling. On the other hand, I've heard that starting a business is like eating glass and staring into the abyss.


One thing working in my favor for ROI is that, as you might imagine, I am extremely skilled at getting what I want without spending money. One time I needed to cut a 2'x4' board in half, but I didn't own a saw, so I used a drill to put a bunch of holes in it and 10 minutes with a steak knife to finish the job. And this was actually the fastest way to get the job done considering how long it would've taken me to bike to the hardware store to spend $20 on a hand saw.

Although I am not Elon, I do share a first name with one of Elon's sons, which may bode well for my fortunes. Hint: It's not X Æ A-12.

If the business is successful, it’s fun and fulfilling, if it goes bankrupt, it’s like eating glass and staring into the abyss.

Most of the startup failures I’ve seen are a result of spending money before you’re ready. A company doesn’t even have a solid way of making money, yet starts hiring marketing and sales people is the classic error. If the CEO/entrepreneur can’t sell the product, yes, even if they are the engineer, then there’s no hope for a random sales guy to sell it. The technical guy actually knows more about the customer, market and product than anyone else alive pretty much, so they can sell it if it is something that can be sold..
 
To avoid losing contact with reality with days like today, I always divide by my $7.25 hourly wage when I started working at McDonalds as my first student job. This makes me more appreciative of the 35 years of work increase in one day. This way I feel blessed to have a job that’s doesn’t pay this hourly wage anymore and I feel blessed I started investing in TSLA. The fun part is that even if my OR time has been cut for this week because of covid cases increasing, I am just happy to have one extra day off to spend with my kids. The 3 divorced general surgeons who are between 55 and 65 are all having temper tantrums against the OR chief because they can‘t sustain another income drop. Being Financially Independant makes loss of income insignificant compared to the extra free time to enjoy things of life.
One thing that amazes me about doctors is how many of them seem to find a way to live paycheck to paycheck when they are making more money in 1 year than most Americans make in a decade. I don't know how they do it. The pressure to "live rich" as a doctor must be suffocating. Every doctor I know has to lease a BMW and trade it in for a new one every 2 years.
 
DOW inclusion and associated split are mid 2023 at the earliest, right?
I don't want TSLA in the Dow. That's the boomer index, and TSLA is anything but a boomer stock. Put STLA (Stellantis) in the Dow instead if they are so desperate to have an auto company in the Dow, which they aren't, because the Dow hasn't had an auto company for a long time now and no one cares if they do or don't.
 
On a record-breaking day, TSLA saw steady gains in the After-hrs session as the "Gamma squeeze" continues:

TSLA After-Hours Quotes​


Data last updated Jan 03, 2022 08:00 PM ET.
This page will resume updating on Jan 04, 2022 04:00 PM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale$1,209.97 +10.19 (+0.85%)
After-Hours Volume1,283,646
After-Hours High$1,210.00 (07:59:57 PM)
After-Hours Low$1,198.35 (04:01:24 PM)


TSLA.chart.2022-01-03.20-00.A-Hrs.png


Cheers to the Longs!
 
Original plan: $500k by age 30 to bounce for at least a few years spending $25k on average annually, maybe with part time work to supplement $5-15k more.

Current plan: Spending $40k per year maybe? TSLA blew me way past my original goal, so I'm fortunately no longer in the position of trading off how many years of my youth to allocate to earning income in order to have more funds and safety margin. I've built so much frugality and efficiency into my lifestyle habits it would be hard to imagine spending more than $50k unless I moved to NYC or Zurich or something. I have a compulsive addiction to optimizing everything :)

I haven't decided on the mechanics of cashing out yet. If we want to discuss that more the early retirement thread would be better.
Just for context: in Zürich you would need at least 150k / Y to sustain a middle class style life. OT : I find it refreshing reading about your (in the general sense, all of you) plans to retire from paid work. I did so as well 6 years ago, best decision ever. .. now I work more than ever, but it feels like a fulfilling hobby / journey.
I am a little, how can I say, without sounding patronizing, bewildered, about the plans what to do with the freed up time. .. even more so given what we adore so much about the person, that makes our wealth soar to unimaginable heights. I hope we can find ways to contribute to the mission, other than by going travelling, or buying islands… not advice, ducks, backs slowly to the door…. disagrees incoming.. 3, 2, 1….
btw : Happy New Year
 
Nice,

I was 27 when I went on my first vagabond trip. Didn't really reach full financial independance until 30 though which is when I went on a 2nd longer vagabonding trip.

Each time I realize that I need more to live the way I want and came back to real life. My original definition of retirement involves poverty living and isn't really able to feed a family.

I am curious to see what some of the younger members here will do with their retirement. How similar or different the journeys you guys take will be like.

I have the freedom to do what I think is meaningful in the world. I’m currently chief strategy officer of a {MODERATOR-DELETED Material that is FAR too over the “promotional” line } .company.

I was an investor in this company at first, but then I became such a fan of the team and the mission that I was like “screw it let’s go.” Tesla enables me to make life decisions like that.

It’s also given me a good bridge because I’ve noticed animosity between crypto and EV crowds, when I see such similarity in disruptive innovation. {Further Mod-deleted material}It sounds like a scam. That’s how powerful defi is. And you can purchase private insurance against it (from two Wharton founded insurance companies I'm an alumni of).

It’s also allowed me to live wherever my fiancé career takes her. I’m perfectly fine being wherever and adapting my career for her, and focus on family when we reach that stage.

To me, it’s fully expressing myself in life and giving attention to the causes and people that matter most to me.

3500 shares of Tesla with a frugal mindset will do that for ya.
 
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@farzyness has shared in some recent YouTube videos his desire to use the TSLA abundance to take time off to explore and find out what being a human is really about before attacking the next phase of his life. I feel the same way, except for me that adventure may end with a new beginning at Tesla or Boring Co. On the other hand, maybe I'll want to start my own business finally, or step away from the Musk world for a while and get a job somewhere else. Honestly, I don't know right now and I would appreciate any advice from those older and wiser than I, especially those like @Artful Dodger who have given a middle finger to the rat race early in life, or those like @Discoducky who have worked at Tesla.

OT:
That's a big question: What would you do with your life, if you could do anything you wanted? A friend asked me that in May 1997, as I was setting up a Linux mail server for our nascent Internet co-op, using the 2nd DSL line installed in our city (he lives in Vancouver now, VP of a large Telecom Co.).

[My answer may not surprise you (I suspect you have already realized it too), but I'll share it with the group because there may be a few folks that don't know it yet, or don't really believe its true, or that it applies to them.]

Back in '97 I paused, blinked, looked at my friend, and said simply: "You know, you're right! I can do anything I want". Mid-thirties, healthy, strong, well-educated, it was like I was suddenly awake to the possibilities before me in life. I think THAT's the day I truly became an adult. It all comes down to choosing your own path, doing it well (so you can be proud of yourself), and making the work matter.

I've walked many roads in my life. I've been a home owner since I was 12 (thanks Dad, miss you). I was a honor student and track athlete in High School (ran 4:13 mile when I was 16). I have undergraduate studies in 7 specalties in business and science, and my 1st job after graduating was teaching a 400-level Statistics Lab titled "Test Theory". I am a retired Army Officer (thanks Col Mike, miss you), have owned my own IT business, and worked as a Computer Instructor.

I have never failed at anything I tried to do for a technical reason. It inevitably involves human factors, generally resolving down to greed, jealousy, or hidden motives. Solution for that sounds simple, right? Jetison. But thats not so simple when interpersonal relationships are involved. People want/need things from you, and they don't want to consider the effects of their request on you. Eventually, you just find a balance.

These past 12 years, I've focused most of my effort on learning Climate Science (hint: we're in deep doo-doo), and now working on the ONLY tenable solution, which is accelerating the World's transition to sustainable energy. Tks, Elon.

And my journey's not done. I have many more roads I plan to walk, beginning with my new Tesla Model Y LR AWD and my National Parks passport. When I see something interesting, and important, I plan to stop and do it. "Adventure is out there."

How's that?

Oh, if you're still reading this, YOU CAN DO IT TOO. You really can. If you free you mind, your feet will take you where you need to go.

This is NOT the end, this is the beginning. :D

Cheers!
 
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One thing that amazes me about doctors is how many of them seem to find a way to live paycheck to paycheck when they are making more money in 1 year than most Americans make in a decade. I don't know how they do it. The pressure to "live rich" as a doctor must be suffocating. Every doctor I know has to lease a BMW and trade it in for a new one every 2 years.
Hmm. Every doctor I know spent 8 years in college, and 15 years paying off their medical school.

I suspect that affects their perspective A bunch.
 
Not an attack on you, but I just want to say that I don’t give a dry fart how Tesla’s debt is rated by the agencies.

I’m also eager to learn the date of the earnings call.
Since there is very low TSLA debt, the functional reason for investment grade is to open access to many institutional investors which are mostly precluded for buying non-investment grade equities. Most do have ‘pools’ of typically 10% that can be non-compliant but those are usually reserved for venture capitel or other privately held assets.

So, yes, it does matter, just not much for borrowing.
 
If the business is successful, it’s fun and fulfilling, if it goes bankrupt, it’s like eating glass and staring into the abyss.

Most of the startup failures I’ve seen are a result of spending money before you’re ready. A company doesn’t even have a solid way of making money, yet starts hiring marketing and sales people is the classic error. If the CEO/entrepreneur can’t sell the product, yes, even if they are the engineer, then there’s no hope for a random sales guy to sell it. The technical guy actually knows more about the customer, market and product than anyone else alive pretty much, so they can sell it if it is something that can be sold..
I am on my second entrepreneurial journey. The first one was commercially very successful and also - especially in retrospect - very fulfilling. It ended after about ten years with me and a few other owners selling our group to private equity. The one I am currently on is looking to be even more successful, from a commercial point of view. This is both because the development is even stronger this time and because I am the sole owner. At present valuation looking at peer transactions, my investment has gone up 50 to 100 times.

But both projects, particularly the current one, are filled with many days of anxiety and stress. Owing and running a business means handling constant conflicts and setbacks that are personal in a way which is difficult to explain to someone who has not done it. You cannot just quit as with a regular job, a lot of people depend on you. Of course, there are also a lot of victories and for me the greatest pride and joy was always seeing people I hired develop and become superstars. So my point is, the money is important but if that is the driver, it is not worth all the downsides even if you succeed and I think the risk of failure is great.

I think you need to have a very strong will to accomplish or create something, to prove yourself. You do not have to be Elon Musk smart, but you do need to be very strong mentally and very persistent. The fantastic thing about Elon Musk, in my mind, is that he excels in so many was as an entrepreneur PLUS being a supersmart person.
 
Nice observation Carbuzz, maybe nothing new for us, but your timeline for Tesla's progress seems odd. :)

"Pay close attention to the fact that this body doesn't have a floor. Typically, a body has to have a floor and structural bracing, and then, in the case of an EV, the battery is mounted to that. Elon Musk has long stated that he wants to move Tesla to a system with integrated structural batteries, and it looks like this could be the first step towards that. With no visible floor, it suggests that a structural battery would form the entire floor of the Model Y, removing the need for extra structural bracing, reducing weight, and simplifying the production process."

"As for when this updated-spec Model Y will arrive, time will only tell, but perhaps 2023 will be the year it all comes together." :D :D :D

 
It’s gotta be the right kind of business. It can’t be a me too business. The product/service has to be unique and innovative with a large addressable market. So, yes, that means doing a lot of hard work identifying a good product and then r&d to see if it is viable. Think big. It is easy to fool yourself that some small little add on feature can support a company, but it can’t.
As an aside people who have never done a startup have no idea how much work it takes. Elon hours are one case, although most successful startups aren’t that extreme. Strategic choices are important. Blood, sweat and tears are the implementation tools. Partners, Employees and Financiers are excruciating, whether it succeeds or not.

There is no textbook that is worth the effort. People who can do it don’t write about it, sometimes they have ghostwriters, but even those are usually faking it.

in short, this is not retirement.

I did it repeatedly. It is hugely satisfying. It destroys relationship and severely tests those it does not destroy.

Most startups fail.

After thinking about those and all the textbook factors if you still want to do it never let anybody convince you it won’t work. Well intentioned advisors urged me to avoid losing my money. After the first couple times I tuned them out.

Of course Elon Musk is a textbook case of determination and skill coinciding brilliantly. Luckily for the world there are some nearly every generation.

Anybody who thinks for a second about the term “retirement” should not do this. Anybody who hedges a bet should not do this. Success in a startup requires terrifying total commitment.

I burned out of these 25 years ago. Luckily a change in career also worked, but since then it has not been startups.

TSLA is quite satisfying too, not least by observing genius at work.
 
In all seriousness, I've actually thought about that. Like, what's the point of starting my own if the expected ROI is higher if I just let it ride on TSLA? I've settled on thinking that it boils down to two factors:

1) What ROI I would actually expect, which first I'd need to actually try to estimate, because maybe I could outpace TSLA.

2) How much I'd enjoy the process for its own sake. I don't know the answers to this question yet because I don't even know which idea I'd pursue yet. However, all of them sound pretty fun and fulfilling. On the other hand, I've heard that starting a business is like eating glass and staring into the abyss.


One thing working in my favor for ROI is that, as you might imagine, I am extremely skilled at getting what I want without spending money. One time I needed to cut a 2'x4' board in half, but I didn't own a saw, so I used a drill to put a bunch of holes in it and 10 minutes with a steak knife to finish the job. And this was actually the fastest way to get the job done considering how long it would've taken me to bike to the hardware store to spend $20 on a hand saw.

Although I am not Elon, I do share a first name with one of Elon's sons, which may bode well for my fortunes. Hint: It's not X Æ A-12.
Congrats on your retirement decision! I retired last fall at the young age of 42- thanks entirely to my Tesla investments. I think you can safely cross violin making off of your list of business ideas. ;)
 
Just for context: in Zürich you would need at least 150k / Y to sustain a middle class style life. OT : I find it refreshing reading about your (in the general sense, all of you) plans to retire from paid work. I did so as well 6 years ago, best decision ever. .. now I work more than ever, but it feels like a fulfilling hobby / journey.
I am a little, how can I say, without sounding patronizing, bewildered, about the plans what to do with the freed up time. .. even more so given what we adore so much about the person, that makes our wealth soar to unimaginable heights. I hope we can find ways to contribute to the mission, other than by going travelling, or buying islands… not advice, ducks, backs slowly to the door…. disagrees incoming.. 3, 2, 1….
btw : Happy New Year
What work keeps you busy now - Is it focusing on your investments, or something more hand on in a company?

I've hit my FI number due to Tesla but haven't pulled the trigger on the 9-5 role yet. After a decade in my industry it feels like stepping back is giving up an important asset (current experience) - even though I don't need the salary anymore and it's quite a demanding finance role. Did you know what you wanted to do at the time once you "retired"?