Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

Any other reports. A photo, which doesnt show motion, of car one behind each other doesnt mean the cars arent moving fast.

I saw a video. There was a short traffic jam. First one this Loop has had that I've heard about.

The problem was that they had one of the buildings closed yet there's a large convention going on, so the traffic was reduced from three stations to two on a busy day.

Not really indicative of the prospects of long term development of Loop. Those mocking now will be eating their words in 10 years.

 

[tivoboy]

I have a buy in for 10 at 1030. Shoulda placed earlier, but something tells me this could still hit. I HOPE IT DOESN'T.
Debated a cheap call, chickened out when I saw the yield etc... TSLA gets a beating all the way into the EC I think.

I have now moved my 1030 level of weak - med support to no support, and moved my first support level down to 1010. Not a big diff for your BO though, but that 1010 is also pretty weak, then my next level shows 970 (at which point I’D start to accumulate with 100-200 repurchase saving 200-300 for lower 9XX levels.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

*rolls eyes*

Hysterical twitter poster is remarking on worrying about "asphyxiating" in a tunnel with cars that have no emissions....during a 'traffic jam' that delayed their arrival at the station by less than 60 seconds

And the "traffic jamb" was caused by the doors at that CES Hall being locked; it has nothing to do with the Loop.

Pathetic coverage of this non-event by the media leads to another "TSLA Sale!" buying opportunity me thinks . . . .

 

[woodisgood]

Does anyone have an idea of how much “firepower” it takes to spike the 10y? We always wonder how much real buying or real shorting is required to move TSLA share price x amount.

My question is if you were a large financial entity, would it be cheaper to manipulate the market via the 10y or by buying/selling/shorting? I suspect the former but have no knowledge of the volumes/trading that actually go into the treasury auctions.

 

[MP3Mike]

Pathetic coverage of this non-event by the media leads to another "TSLA Sale!" buying opportunity me thinks . . . .

But why would it? Even if the Boring company went belly up and disappeared it wouldn't have any impact on Tesla. (The miniscule demand for Tesla vehicles by the Boring company is meaningless.)

 

[bkp_duke]

Most of the time? Not what I see. The 10 yr touched it earlier last year, then a full 2 yrs ago we were higher.


View attachment 753012

I was glancing at the chart, but I get your point.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Shouldn't there be a few calls bought seeing how it's Friday and Max Pain is closer to 1100? 1049.99 might be a realistic close, we'll see.

Fear is pretty high, dogs and cats are already threatening to fight at the garden, all a sign of a great buying opportunity, or near it IMHO. (Someone was asking earlier in the week how we know when to buy (never know), but it hasn't gotten political here yet so maybe a bit more to go). When it drops below the bickering line, some folks always come in with a lower buy threat. We saw one earlier. Yield pulled back, maybe time for a short run up.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Does anyone have an idea of how much “firepower” it takes to spike the 10y? We always wonder how much real buying or real shorting is required to move TSLA share price x amount.

My question is if you were a large financial entity, would it be cheaper to manipulate the market via the 10y or by buying/selling/shorting? I suspect the former but have no knowledge of the volumes/trading that actually go into the treasury auctions.

Except that the 10 year isn't really affecting Tesla's share price. It's a nice excuse sure.....but I've seen plenty of stocks of companies with zero or little to no earnings that have held up better than TSLA has over the past 4 trading days. The is a good old fashioned bear/short raid. One that I can't help but be kinda amazed by. To drop a stock from 1200 to 1000 in 4 trading days after blowout numbers is actually quite shocking to me.

I guess I/we shouldn't be surprised though. Hedge funds and MM's essentially have around 10 trading days until Q4 earnings which will likely mean the start of the end for orchestrated moves like this. Q4 earnings will drastically bring down P/E and Forward P/E, going from "expensive" to "reasonable" in a flip of the switch, which takes away a lot of the threat of the 10 year. Q4 earnings will also re-confirm margin expansion/sustainability and will put investment grade rating on deck. Moody's/S&P will likely still try to delay it but the more impressive Tesla's earnings, the more they're going to be forced to do it at some point.

I guess I should have expected hedgies to take one last swing at orchestrating volatility before the fat lady sings on them. I'm just amazed at how orchestrated it has been and how there's been zero resistance or support on the entire way down. The disconnect between the share price and what Tesla is going to do earnings wise is probably the widest I've seen in a long right now. Reminds somewhat of 2019 at the moment actually.

 

[juanmedina]

For instance Lucid is up 8.5%. Why is it up so much?

 

[tivoboy]

For instance Lucid is up 8.5%. Why is it up so much?

Because yesterday It was WAY oversold.

 

[woodisgood]

Except that the 10 year isn't really affecting Tesla's share price. It's a nice excuse sure.....but I've seen plenty of stocks of companies with zero or little to no earnings that have held up better than TSLA has over the past 4 trading days. The is a good old fashioned bear/short raid. One that I can't help but be kinda amazed by. To drop a stock from 1200 to 1000 in 4 trading days after blowout numbers is actually quite shocking to me.

I guess I/we shouldn't be surprised though. Hedge funds and MM's essentially have around 10 trading days until Q4 earnings which will likely mean the start of the end for orchestrated moves like this. Q4 earnings will drastically bring down P/E and Forward P/E, going from "expensive" to "reasonable" in a flip of the switch, which takes away a lot of the threat of the 10 year. Q4 earnings will also re-confirm margin expansion/sustainability and will put investment grade rating on deck. Moody's/S&P will likely still try to delay it but the more impressive Tesla's earnings, the more they're going to be forced to do it at some point.

I guess I should have expected hedgies to take one last swing at orchestrating volatility before the fat lady sings on them. I'm just amazed at how orchestrated it has been and how there's been zero resistance or support on the entire way down. The disconnect between the share price and what Tesla is going to do earnings wise is probably the widest I've seen in a long right now. Reminds somewhat of 2019 at the moment actually.

I wasn’t implying this particular downslide was due to the 10y, though it‘s a trick that seems to be in the toolbox and has been used a fair amount over the past year. Whether the rising yields actually cause selling by others/bots or whether it’s simply cover for massive shorting is an open question. But I was just wondering how easy it is to spike yields.

 

[Gigapress]

But why would it? Even if the Boring company went belly up and disappeared it wouldn't have any impact on Tesla. (The miniscule demand for Tesla vehicles by the Boring company is meaningless.)

The biggest factor in Tesla mission and stock valuation in the next 10 years is FSD.

Loop, in the long term vision, is a Personal Rapid Transit system based on autonomous EVs. An underground 3D road network of platooning robotaxis with high station density.

If this works as I expect it to, it will majorly accelerate the rate of EV adoption as measured by % of total vehicle passenger-miles.

It also indirectly affects Tesla via Elon Musk. The more successes he has in other business ideas, the more resources and credibility flow his way in general. Especially talent.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

For instance Lucid is up 8.5%. Why is it up so much?

Prob for the same reason why NKLA is also green.....

 

[Singuy]

Except that the 10 year isn't really affecting Tesla's share price. It's a nice excuse sure.....but I've seen plenty of stocks of companies with zero or little to no earnings that have held up better than TSLA has over the past 4 trading days. The is a good old fashioned bear/short raid. One that I can't help but be kinda amazed by. To drop a stock from 1200 to 1000 in 4 trading days after blowout numbers is actually quite shocking to me.

I guess I/we shouldn't be surprised though. Hedge funds and MM's essentially have around 10 trading days until Q4 earnings which will likely mean the start of the end for orchestrated moves like this. Q4 earnings will drastically bring down P/E and Forward P/E, going from "expensive" to "reasonable" in a flip of the switch, which takes away a lot of the threat of the 10 year. Q4 earnings will also re-confirm margin expansion/sustainability and will put investment grade rating on deck. Moody's/S&P will likely still try to delay it but the more impressive Tesla's earnings, the more they're going to be forced to do it at some point.

I guess I should have expected hedgies to take one last swing at orchestrating volatility before the fat lady sings on them. I'm just amazed at how orchestrated it has been and how there's been zero resistance or support on the entire way down. The disconnect between the share price and what Tesla is going to do earnings wise is probably the widest I've seen in a long right now. Reminds somewhat of 2019 at the moment actually.

Which is so weird after blow out reports. Oh well, let them play with fire. Earnings will most likely cause a gamma squeeze again, not to mention Elon has like 2B sitting around. He could easily burn the shorts just to toy with them with a 100M buy in for the memes.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Which is so weird after blow out reports. Oh well, let them play with fire. Earnings will most likely cause a gamma squeeze again, not to mention Elon has like 2B sitting around. He could easily burn the shorts just to toy with them with a 100M buy in for the memes.

Maybe he could post a Twitter poll to see if he should increase his stake in $TSLA with a $100M buy-in.

 

[UltradoomY]

Just saw on numerous Twitter posts (not linked- Tesmanian) that the NEW CATL plant in China is delivering to Tesla now.
Earnings date announced most likely Monday for 01/26.
Pepsi taking delivery of Semi this month (most likely the 29th for a little throwback to the numerology of 129)
Records earnings
Even though it doesn't feel like it now, this is going to be a great Month/Quarter/Year!
Picked up another 300 LT shares yesterday and a bunch of February $1100 Calls to celebrate!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Not been my experience. I’ve adapted to it quite easily and have no issues using it. It’s neither better nor worse to me, it’s just different.

There will always be things that individuals prefer. Some things I preferred about the old, some things I prefer about the new. Meh.

I suggest that Tesla might just be open to making changes down the road if they hear compelling, logical and reasonable input from owners. You know, kind of like how they’ve always done that in the past.

I rather like the new UI (ducks). Seems like a lot of inputs are now context sensitive and don’t clutter up the driving display when not needed (e.g., Homelink, Bluetooth, sentry, profiles, WiFi).

 

[Drax7]

back of the envelope exercise

On 300,000 plus deliveries this quarter tesla generates about $3 billion profit.

On 3 million yearly deliveries in 2024 that should equate with $30 billion profit,
assuming all else remains constant. (This number does not include fsd )

30 billion profits implies a forward p/e in the low 30s.
(Apples p/e is currently about 30ish.)

 

[woodisgood]

We like to joke about it but you guys do understand that Elon probably doesn’t want the stock price to increase as quickly as y’all do, right? It just makes it harder/less rewarding for employees to get in, with the upside being shareholders get to giggle at their net worth? I mean which side of that equation do you think Elon falls on?

So yes, there’s a lot Elon could do to support or even pump the stock price, but he won’t, beyond what Tesla needs to reveal as it makes progress on the mission. Unless the shorts get really out of control and need a taming and/or the market undervalues Tesla to an insulting degree.

I recommend everyone check out @farzyness latest video, where he walks through the employee stock purchase plan in practical terms. The most important takeaway which is often lost on a lot of shareholders (we tend to focus on the engineering talent and innovation) is that the bulk of Tesla’s workforce is relatively lower wage…and what makes Tesla unique is that the lower wage folks get a share of Tesla’s success (as they should). This is vitally important and likely to be Elon’s only concern with respect to the share price, and as Farzad points out, will be the main driver of splits moving forward.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

back of the envelope exercise

On 300,000 plus deliveries this quarter tesla generates about $3 billion profit.

On 3 million yearly deliveries in 2024 that should equate with $30 billion profit,
assuming all else remains constant. (This number does not include fsd )

30 billion profits implies a forward p/e in the low 30s.
(Apples p/e is currently about 30ish.)

That's actually flawed logic for a couple reasons.

A) - The growth in revenue/deliveries and profits are not the same. Tesla is growing earnings exponentially faster than revenue. There's still more operating margin to realize as both Fremont and Shanghai continue their expansion. Then consider the fact that Tesla is riding a long cost curve down in components combined with larger economies of scale, will mean more expansion to come in gross margin. When you're projecting out 2-3 years, gross margins and operating margins can drastically change the outcome of valuation and P/E metrics

b) - In 2024, Tesla will likely do more like 3.2-3.5 million deliveries. Then combine the odds that Energy scale as well as higher ASP vehicles such as the Cybtruck and Semi, which all of which will drive revenue higher than extrapolating Q4's revenue out annually for 2024.

So summary, you're being very conservative