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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Listen, I know I don't quite have the human languages down since my primary conduit for communication is is through scent, And I know most of you on here think Mary Bara is a bold -faced liar, while as an ant I see here as an Ideal person to have a picnic in my home territory due to her inabilities.
But from what I can tell she is aware of the fires in the EV's her company sold, and she is trying to be honest.... What is in a name?
 
Not all data is worth spending time on.
Appreciate the gentleness. I would completely disagree however. Of course we all have our preconceived expectations related to past experience with certain voices.

I am interested in how the misinformation changes over time. I have to at least be open to a cursory (not much time) review and that is a lot of the value of this forum in aggregating data sources really from around the world for a quick review. This is a great value and goes a small way toward avoiding the damage of groupthink or echo chamber effect.

The case might be made that the market is a form of consensus reached among various interests and viewpoints. My view is there is an investment advantage in representative data rather than filtered data.

We all get to weigh the value of our time of course. Thanks for the comment.
 
dios mio is it monday yet?
fake traffic jams, fake thefts, arguing over the wet rag NYT again…

earnings season starts this week. although the only notables are some big financials friday (jpm, blkrk, citi, wf) then next week we hit stride. banks obv rising with rates last week. hopefully we’ll get sure of foot before we plunge much further.

the pigs have to reposition for earnings at some point, before or after. which will it be this qtr?

when tesla announces earnings date, that will remove an element of the guesswork for the pigs.
yes, eventually we will draw the pigs into the barn and hose them down, but being pigs, they’ll just turn right back around and wallow in the mud again.

fed goal is/was (the minutes differ from the announcement - so maybe the fed are in with the pigs?) 2% over ‘22 —> ‘24
75bips 2nd half 22, 75bips 23, 50bips 24

but now (the minutes) with a combined balance sheet shrinking + rising rates, the pigs will be reducing in number. a bit less leverage for everyone will result in fat trimming at the margins.

maybe after some volatility (who knows how ⬆️⬇️ we can go - follow the options leverage) tsla then finds its range (like ~feb to sept ‘21) for a bit, hopefully a window like 1050-1250 holds up. id take it for a while until GF4&5 proof, but we’ll see.

edit: and yes i’m aware i’m part pig, bc i do play some of these moves
 
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I thought I'd update about the EV vanguard also known as Norway/Oslo.
As Christine said unfortunately Model Y didn't get a rush of deliveries the last part of december. So it ended the year at 4th place in all models behind Model 3, RAV4-Hybrid and ID.4 Though just a few hundred cars from MY to pass RAV4. Due to changes in our incentive scheme most PHEV get a modest to a massive incerease in fees from 1.1.22. So RAV4 will propably see around 75% reduction in sales for 2022. And a full year of MY sales will make it interesting.
Not the least since Tesla was the best selling car brand for all of 2021 in Norway. Not the "EV market" no the car market full stop. 11.6% of the total market, and that in a record year, there has never been sold more cars in Norway than 2021.
So Tesla is still going strong.

Another thing I thought I'd mention as to the EV transition is public transportation. Oslo has a tramsystem and subway system which of course is electric. But busses are also now turning electric en masse. With a new contract now in january 2022 about 40% of the citybusses will be electric while around 22% of all busses from Oslo Transport Authority (Ruter) which includes many suburban routes as well. I believe they use BYD and VDL busses. I shot some pictures of one of the depots for VDL Citea SLFA I think is the model. These have around 120kWh batteries and use a pantograph fast charging system at the depot as you can see in the pictures.
I'd be surprised if there were more than a handful of new contracts for non-ev busses in Europe by public transport authorities going forward. The pressure for action on pollution and climate change in cities is just too strong for a public agency to ignore.
 
Gary Black calculated $TSLA averaged +19.3% in the past 8 9 quarters between closing price right-after-volume to closing price right-before-earnings. Yet we now sit at -14.4% from Monday's closing price (volume was announced on Sunday). This points to a potential of +33.7% from here to $1370 closing price right-before-earnings.

Regarding macro/10Y-yield, he commented: >> this week was emotion not math.

With a range of -3 to +67, I would exercise caution of using the average (which is meaningless IMO).
 
Hmmmm, are you asking an entire forum that has nationalistic tendencies to quit being so nationalistic?

I would be in favor of that but, while we are at it, maybe we should write a letter to Wall Street and ask them to quit being so greedy. ;)
Hmm... Does the entire forum have Nationalistic tendencies? I certainly don't, there's no logic to being proud of a given country just for the sake of it based on accident of birth.
 
Hmm... Does the entire forum have Nationalistic tendencies? I certainly don't, there's no logic to being proud of a given country just for the sake of it based on accident of birth.
OTOH, considering everyone, there may well be many of us who might be ashamed of our country of birth citizenship.
Anyway, BEV adoption and the options to increase that rate of adoption, are a rather sad commentary on any nation that has not a large petroleum earnings base. Were I to be proud of a country toady enough to become a trifle nationalistic it might well be Norway. Still, nationalism invariably tends towards unfortunate results.

Since all this is in the context of Tesla, I think Tesla probably now has no particular national bias. GM should have that, since China and Brazil produce nearly all their profits and their highest market shares, but they are clearly Nationalist USA.

The US securities markets reward globalism, other they admit that or not.
 
Listen, I know I don't quite have the human languages down since my primary conduit for communication is is through scent, And I know most of you on here think Mary Bara is a bold -faced liar, while as an ant I see here as an Ideal person to have a picnic in my home territory due to her inabilities.
But from what I can tell she is aware of the fires in the EV's her company sold, and she is trying to be honest.... What is in a name?
With GM now showing Hummer, Silverado, Blazer, Equinox, and ???...all "coming in 1 or 2 years", wouldn’t they run into Osborning their own ICE sales for years with these announcements? Doesn't make any sense to me Barra....
 
With GM now showing Hummer, Silverado, Blazer, Equinox, and ???...all "coming in 1 or 2 years", wouldn’t they run into Osborning their own ICE sales for years with these announcements? Doesn't make any sense to me Barra....
Think GM is just in a hopeless situation made worse by gross incompetence.
 
NY times = anti Tesla. I don't even have to open the link to know that, just hovering over it is all I need.

Google 'Broder and doing circles in a parking lot' or just click here: A Most Peculiar Test Drive

He's now a managing editor of the NY Times.
It is good to remind folks about the constant FUD of mainstream media, even tho applauding "positive" changes of attitude from some journalists is problematic as they are NOT real changes, these journalists just had to eventually APPEAR as they are impartial now, because they have no choice, they want to keep what credibility they have left - the reality disconnect would crush them into the Gordon Johnson category if they tried to continue their FUD reporting.

HOWEVER, and especially in a forum like this where we know better, maybe we could move past this defensive /distracting stage -and fight Tesla's real enemies rather than their foot soldiers.

We now know who they are - besides the obvious oil & gas / coal & utilities interests /ICE : most large financial conglomerates including the big 7 Wall Street banks (Dept of Justice repeat criminal felony offenders, who just pay a symbolic fine whenever their SEC accomplice is forced to sue them after the Justice Dept actions) .

A call to arms: we can do things that are more effective than debunking the journalists and go in the right direction with little changes on our part. Here are a few to start with:

1. keep as much of our USD deposits in Credit Unions rather than the usual banks (JP Morgan, HSBC, Goldman Sachs etc ). It may be necessary to keep an account at one of these larger banks out of necessity, but why not keep as much as practical in Credit Unions? That is because credit unions are not for profit, they benefit local businesses and do not gamble with derivatives (like banks do, at the expense of the taxpayer when they lose or help manipulate markets). CU's contribute to the real economy, not our increasingly larger paper economy.
Why let the FUDsters use our deposits to attack Tesla, when we have the choice not to leave our deposits with them?

Credit Unions used to be restricted as to membership, but that is not true anymore - they offer completely similar services as banks and most still offer free checking which is getting rarer /more difficult to find for banks unless of course you are a big client. Some CU's are very large, for example Penfed, or even Apple Savings Bank in NYC with perfunctory membership requirements. Or your old college or employer credit union.

These deposits in credit unions will NOT be used by Wall St financial companies to short or manipulate TSLA, besides other problematic consequences.
It would be great if a majority of people did this, but still, every bit helps

2. Use as much as possible disruptive financial products that are actually just as safe but more efficient/ faster and less expensive than their traditional counterparts. I can think of a couple, which I can recommend: TransferWise for faster /less expensive international funds transfers, and the Cash app which lets you transfer instantly funds to family /friends/ others you trust, but also pay for anything with its associated Visa credit card. This is a disruptive Fintech from Jack Dorsey (ex Twitter CEO and now Square/ Block) which now owns its own bank. Finally on the way to realizing what Elon Musk wanted X.com aka Paypal to achieve: eliminate the (unfair but profitable for established institutions) inefficiencies of our financial system.

3. Use your influence to have any direct or indirect investments in fossil fuels divested from funds where you have a voice, similar to Harvard's $42B endowment fund recent decision

4. Any other means you can think of to address this cold war the FUD has /is currently engaging against Tesla at its roots/ heads. Avoiding putting investments in companies funding the anti Tesla FUD, voting for better political leaders (are there any?).. Maybe someone can start a new thread figuring out what other actions can be taken.

https://www.carbonbubble.net/

TSLA.FUD.banks.report.jpg


Edit: grammar/ illustration and refinements added - and meanwhile another recent "positive" article in the NY Times today Jan 8 by Jack Ewing reports positively on how Elon's quirky approach to make its own components in house paid off this year, but as expected HAD TO end with the usual negative /deceptive FUD concluding comments (likely dictated by the NY TImes overlords):

".. Tesla vehicles still suffer from quality problems. The company told regulators in December that it planned to recall more than 475,000 cars for two separate defects. One could cause the rear view camera to fail, and the other could cause the front hood to open unexpectedly. And federal regulators are investigating the safety of Tesla’s Autopilot system, which can accelerate, brake and steer a car on its own.

“Tesla will continue to grow,” said Stephen Beck, managing partner at cg42, a management consulting firm in New York. “But they are facing more competition than they ever have, and the competition is getting stronger.”
 
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In light of some of the news this week, I'd like to share this tweet from a few months ago that I found particularly relevant:


I think most Tesla investors intuitively understand this: we don't need to be clairvoyant to see the emerging trends that will impact how we live our lives in the future. We just need to be able to see the present clearly.
 
In light of some of the news this week, I'd like to share this tweet from a few months ago that I found particularly relevant:


I think most Tesla investors intuitively understand this: we don't need to be clairvoyant to see the emerging trends that will impact how we live our lives in the future. We just need to be able to see the present clearly.


Peter Ducker:

“The best way to predict the future is to create it. There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. Efficiency is doing things right; effectiveness is doing the right things.

That little gem in the middle sounds like Elon, doesn't it. ;)

quote-the-best-way-to-predict-the-future-is-to-create-it-peter-drucker-8-18-80.jpg


Cheers!
 
I know there’s been a lot of speculation about why the FSD price hike, but to me the read-between-the-lines is Dojo has gone, or is about to go, live and they’re expecting the pace of progress to increase dramatically.
I think you might be right. Are you reading between these lines?
  1. Elon most likely tested V11 Alpha just before raising prices
  2. Dojo was due to be stood up in 2021
To counter thus, Elon said they would continually raise prices and $2k isn't much all things considered.
 
Hmm... Does the entire forum have Nationalistic tendencies? I certainly don't, there's no logic to being proud of a given country just for the sake of it based on accident of birth.
Realistically, if you were fortunate enough to have been born in one of the developed nations on Earth you should be on your knees every night thanking the deity of your choice you were born in one of the developed nations. A lot of people in the first world seem have no knowledge or appreciation of how lucky they are.